You think too simply. When were the Giants eliminated? Game 4. Who started that game for them? Matt Moore. Whom did they trade to get Matt Moore? Matt Duffy. Whom did Duffy replace at third base? Pablo Sandoval. If Sandoval's still on the team, Duffy gets traded for someone else, likely bullpen relief. The starting pitching is slightly worse because Moore isn't there but Chris Heston gets added to the postseason roster instead and pitches a gem, and the extra offense from Sandoval propels them to the NLCS. Pretty easy to figure out.
Oh, and if the Red Sox had a healthy Panda, they would have gone to the World Series, too.