pmoehrin

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pmoehrin last won the day on September 25 2016

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  1. pmoehrin

    NFL Playoffs Thread

    Aside from the obvious, my only question about the Saints/Rams game what was on earth was Sean Payton thinking on the play calling sequence before the non-pass interference call happened? You have the ball on the 13-yard line within two minutes to go. The game is tied and the other team only has two timeouts left. ESPN had them at an 89% chance of winning the game at that point. Just run the damn ball three times and kick the field goal. It would have given the Rams less than a minute to get into field goal territory without any timeouts to help them. That first down incomplete pass completely changed the dynamic of the game. It added at least another 30 seconds on the clock for the Rams offense and now instead of "a touchdown here would be nice" you almost need to score a touchdown to ensure the game is put away.
  2. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    For every one transaction a team makes, they discuss ten others than never come to fruition. That’s about the same percentage of confidence I apply to all of these contract rumors.
  3. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    You would have to ask the Phillies brass themselves why they seem to have soured on Machado. I’m sure signing Trout is in the back of people’s minds in Philly, but planning your future around players who aren’t even in your system is a very dangerous game to get into. Im sure they’ll do what they can to get him, but I doubt the Machado situation has any impact on what they may be planning to do to attract Trout. As for the second part, when I was with UMass basketball coaches would regularly make it a point especially to incoming freshmen that you need to learn how to be effective while playing at less than 100% effort. Guys who give it 100% effort on every play usually end up in the trainer’s room within a month of playing like that. It doesn’t mean you have a license to be lazy. It just means you need to know how to pick your spots and maybe not lay out to catch that bases empty single when you’re up by three runs with two outs in the eighth inning in the middle of August. I’m sure that’s more along the lines of what Machado was saying and his regular season numbers should override anything he did over a three week span in October. But the image of him pimping a long single in the middle of the World Series as well as the various dirty play is going to be tough to get out of people’s heads. The only thing Machado can do to redeem himself is to have a kickass Postseason at some point. Who knows if he’ll ever get the chance.
  4. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    That's probably as high as most teams are willing to go. If he weren't dead set on playing shortstop and didn't come off as a raging douche in October, he would be getting better offers. I think his "hustle" comments were and are being overblown, but I do get teams having reservations over giving someone big money who has admitted he doesn't give 100% on every play, even in big games. More than one team who was interested in signing him in July was all set after seeing what he did in October. You can't tell me there are 50 players better than Manny Machado and $25 million would still put him at a pretty elite pay scale. He would become the best player on the White Sox overnight as well as their highest paid player if he were to sign there. But if you asked every game around the league if you could start a team with any player, who would you want? Most every GM would name at least a dozen players before they got to Machado. If the White Sox view Harper as potentially being the next Frank Thomas, that makes Machado the next Robin Ventura. Solid player to have on the roster and one who can help propel a team to a World Series title. But nobody is looking to him as being the guy to carry a franchise, and if that's the type of money he's asking for, I have a feeling he's going to be waiting awhile. As for the other big fish, Harper, he's probably going to wait right up until Spring Training starts before signing. Everything I've heard has him going to Philly if a decision had to be made today. Harper and the Phillies management also seem to be getting along swimmingly which is another reason why I think the race to sign him is more or less over at this point. The only reason Harper still hasn't signed is that he's still waiting to see if another team comes along to blow Philly's offer out of the water. There are other teams out there who are willing to offer Harper more money per year, but nobody is willing to match the Phillies regarding contract length, and that isn't likely to change. Teams like the Dodgers will up the money offer before they up years. But there's no incentive for him at this point to sign right away, and I don't think the Phillies are in any rush to bring him in either. The Phillies already locked up their contingency plan with the McCutchen signing, so why rush him on having him sign, especially when they've been talking to each other the whole time?
  5. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    For the most part even great players still have their best years in that 24-26 time span. Just off the top of my head Mickey Mantle was 24 when he won the Triple Crown. DiMaggio was 26 when he had his 56-game hitting steak. Babe Ruth had his first 50 home run season when he was 25. He hit 59 when he was 26. Ken Griffey’s career high OPS came when he was 24. The higher the peak the longer the career, but it doesn’t shift the peak away from that 24-26 range. The main reason talent doesn’t make a difference is because by the time a player gets to 29 it’s three more years of wear and tear on the body. Minor injuries start piling up into big ones. There’s no avoiding it. All you can do is hold off the process as long as possible and a lot of it over that length of time can boil down to just plain luck. Adding more knowledge and experience takes you just so far to make up for it.
  6. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    I can't speak with as much confidence about hockey as I can about baseball, but my hunch is its probably just as true in that sport as well. There's just so much coaching, and hard work can do to overcome biology and father time. On an unrelated note, I also have a series I just started up on Reddit where I post a bunch of starters from each team, and you have to guess the year I'm referring to. I plan on doing one a day until the season starts. I've only done three so far, so anyone interested can go and check it out. I also have an interview set up with someone from Major League Baseball about a potential job offer. It's only a part-time job, so I'm 50/50 if I'm even going to take it if offered, but I will let people know if I wind doing it going forward with it. Either way, I'm expecting to have an interesting conversation. My advice for anyone trying to work into baseball, don't listen to anyone with the "what good is data for" mentality. Teams are interested in talking to people who are just as versed in SQL as they are in explaining what the infield fly rule is. You can make a nice writing career railing against the evils of sabermetrics and plenty have. But they are a dying breed who hardly anyone in the game takes seriously anymore.
  7. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    The steroid era featured three highly successful teams who were built primarily around veteran talent. The D'Backs, the Giants and the Yankees. Most of the key players on those three teams were over 30. These teams were also built for the most part through trades and free agency. You could look around the league and see players like Johnson, Bonds, Edmonds, Gonzalez, etc. who were over the age of 30 and playing better than ever. So when Tim Salmon bats .290 with 34 home runs at the age of 31, it's easy to see how a team can become convinced this is a sign of things to come, so let's make him the highest paid player on the team. And teams did this repeatedly. Look at the Rangers in the early 2000s and ask yourself what was tying them up financially. The $25 million they were giving to the best player in the American League? Or the $20 million they were giving to two corner outfielders (Juan Gonzalez and Carl Everett) who couldn't run or field, and only provided average production at the plate? You could get the same amount of production Gonzalez, and Everett provided you with for under $3 million at the time. Arod is another story. But those are the types of deals that were sinking mid-market teams who were trying to match the Yankees and Red Sox in free agency. The smart teams like Oakland figured out very it wasn't worth it to even bother trying to keep up with teams like the Yankees in free agency and focused all their energies on developing their farm system. What they found was that if you play your cards right, you can get players better than anyone available on the free agent market, and as a bonus, you only have to pay them 1/10th the salary the top veteran free agent is going to get. Once the big market teams started to figure out they could do the same thing, the days of good but not great veteran players getting big money essentially ended. The idea of teams spending wisely in the free agent market though is a fairly new phenomenon. Teams spent like drunken sailors in the '80s giving big bucks to proven but past their prime vets like Steve Garvey, George Foster, and Ron Cey. Even the first big-money deal in free agent history (Catfish Hunter to the Yankees) was a bust. The Yankees signed him for five years and only got one good year and one decent year out of Hunter. The only difference between now and then is that you didn't have Sabermetric people there to call them out for overvaluing veteran talent. The teams have caught on. For better or worse the "I drink, and I know things" talk radio host type of persona have been scrubbed from most front offices. What's on the spreadsheet matters just as much as what you see on the field. That's a hard concept for a lot of people to grasp and most fans and media people can't which is why I think so many people look at Sabermetrics as a kind of voodoo science, even though all 30 teams have fully adopted this mentality.
  8. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    It seems that way because it usually takes a few years for players to garner national attention, but there is a mountain of data to support this. A quick way to show this is to look at the average age of teams. Most are around 27. A 30-year-old might be as good of a hitter as he was at 25, but most everyone loses something defensively and speed wise in those five years. Likewise, pitchers may learn how to pitch better, but it’s tough to make up losing 1-3 MPH off the fastball as most do by that point. Obviously, there are hundreds of exceptions to this trend. But if you look at the overall talent curve and how it’s divided amongst ages, you’ll find it looks almost exactly the same now as it did in 1930. The reason diet and exercise hasn't changed it is because everyone is doing it and whatever marginal benefit is lost because of it. People think the best is yet to come with Machado and Harper and my thinking is we’ve already seen the best. I’d put good money on Bryce Harper never winning another MVP. That doesn't mean I think Harper is going to suck, or don’t think of him as a franchise player. Sign Bryce Harper and you won’t have to worry about finding a corner outfielder to replace him for at least five years. He’s just not going to develop into a .300 hitting 50+ home run batter.
  9. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    I have an article planned in relation to this, but if I was a GM of a team, that team wouldn’t use the free agent market for anything more than adding a plug in starter. When you have guys like Javy Baez and Carlos Correa only making around $5 million, I don’t see the point. You’re not going to be able to match that type of bang for the buck in the free agent market, so why even try? Sign a veteran free agent for market value, and best case scenario you get the return on investment you’re hoping for. Worst case scenario, he gets hurt and the club is just out whoever many millions it spent on signing him with nothing to show for it. This is why you’re seeing big market teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs dumping money into their farm systems like never before. Try to keep up with small market teams who know how to develop young talent almost strictly through free agency and you’ll likely end up like the Giants. Most players peak between the ages of 24 and 26. Not 29 and 31. That’s always been true, the only difference between now and 30 years ago is that you have teams actually acting out on it. Not just planning on, but banking on young unproven talent being there to save the day, and teams have won the World Series under this rationale. The fact you can pay them less than the vets makes it that much more appealing.
  10. pmoehrin

    2019 NFL Off-Season Thread

    Here's Adam Gase at his first press conference as Jets head coach looking like a god damn serial killer. It should be an interesting two-three years.
  11. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    Contingency plans for not getting Machado. Yankees are out. Now down to just Philly and the White Sox with the Phillies being the clear favorite.
  12. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    That's the only rationale I can come up for making this deal from LA's perspective. Kemp, Puig, and Wood are worth far more in talent than whatever they're getting back from Cincy. Homer Bailey will likely become the game's most expensive middle reliever. But the move also takes the Dodgers under the luxury tax and the Dodgers front office is not one to give up something for nothing. Harper is more valuable than the package they sent to Cincy. If this move enables them to sign Harper, you make this trade ten times over. It's still a big if, but if there's a front office capable of pulling a move like this off, it's theirs. If they don't land Harper, my guess is they'll likely end up with Kluber or someone else along those lines. For the Reds, it allows them to add some Major League caliber talent. Alex Wood instantly becomes the team's best starter and they now have two solid bats in Kemp and Puig to bolster the lineup. The two prospects I'm seeing they're sending to LA are at least a year from being Major League ready, so it shouldn't be any major blow to their farm depth.
  13. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    Easiest way to add depth is to sign the best infielder they can grab. That $20 million would have been in the ballpark of what it would have taken to get Josh Donaldson. He signed for one year as well. Who needs depth when you could have the best left side infield in baseball?
  14. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    You could done what the Angels are doing for 1/4 of the money. Just sign Tyson Ross and Doug Fister. The number one mistake I see GM’s make is overspending on good, but inconsistent starting pitching. This feels like that. Best case scenario one of them pans out. Most likely scenario, neither of them do. And the Angels are placing a $20 million bet on that as the backbone of their starting rotation. Their infield wasn’t that great either. Why not spend the $20 million there instead of trying to invent pitchers to give it to?
  15. pmoehrin

    2018 MLB Off Season Thread

    I do hope the Angels realize they probably could have signed Dallas Keuchel or Patrick Corbin for about the same amount of money they spent on Harvey and Cahill combined. If I’m spending $20 million on starting pitching, I would prefer some of the money go to someone who’s qualified for the ERA title at least once in the past three years.