2017 NFL Season: Then there were Two

[Cosmic]

I'm going to try to bring some objectivity to this debate about how good or bad the AFC East is. I did two separate measurements from 2002 (when the current alignment started). First, I looked at the Patriots' winning percentage in division games versus non-division. Bear in mind that since the Patriots win the division pretty much every year, their 10 non-divisional games include two games against other first place teams, aside from the two whole divisions the whole AFC East faces each year (you would expect these games to be harder than average). Over the last 16 seasons, the Patriots' winning percentage in the AFC East is .781 versus .769 against the rest of the league... not a huge difference. In the last five seasons, their AFC East winning percentage is .733 versus .820 against the rest of the league. Again, their ten non-divisional games include two games against first-place teams from the year before. The rest of the AFC East has actually been keeping the Patriots' win totals down in the last five years.

 

The second thing I did was look at the total wins for all teams in a division. My assumption (which I hopefully didn't screw up) is that everyone's division games would basically cancel each other out, and the total wins in the division would give you a look at how that division as a whole did against the rest of the league. The occasional tie might mess with things a bit, but there aren't very many ties in the NFL. The AFC East averages the most wins per season since the current alignment came about in 2002. They finished first or tied for first in wins 5 out of 16 times; they were tied for last only once. 

 

In case you're curious, the best years for a division were the 2007 AFC South and the 2013 NFC West, tied with 42 wins. The worst division years were the 2008 NFC West and the 2014 NFC South, each with only 22 wins between four teams.

 

So yes, the Patriots wipe the floor with the AFC East every year, but they wipe the floor with the whole damn league every year.

[Cosmic]

The rankings for average wins per year by division since 2002:

AFC East (33.81)

NFC East (32.88)

NFC South (32.69)

AFC North (32.06)

AFC West (31.88)

NFC North (31.31)

AFC South (31.19)

NFC West (29.75)

 

[The_Admiral]

3 hours ago, Kramerica Industries said:

 

Feels right to me. 

You have Ty Law in but not Brian Urlacher?!?

[Tracy Jordan]

On 1/2/2018 at 11:12 PM, ozzyman314 said:

I find it funny when people complain that NE play in a "weak division", when now every team (including The Bills) have made the playoffs at least once in the past 5-10 years. Including the freaking Jets making 2 consecutive  AFC Championship games.

 

The AFC North is literally just Baltimore & Pittsburgh. 

 

 

 

 

The Dolphins, Bills and Jets have combined for a total of five playoff appearances and one division title* in the last 10 years. I wouldn't exactly call the AFC East a powerhouse division. The Steelers, Bengals and Ravens have each made the playoffs at least six times during that same span.

 

*- Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008

[Tracy Jordan]

7 hours ago, Cosmic said:

The rankings for average wins per year by division since 2002:

AFC East (33.81)

NFC East (32.88)

NFC South (32.69)

AFC North (32.06)

AFC West (31.88)

NFC North (31.31)

AFC South (31.19)

NFC West (29.75)

 

 

You have to consider that the Patriots have averaged 12.37 wins per year during that span, which accounts for more than a third (roughly 36%) of the AFC East's average win total. This means that the rest of the AFC East has averaged only 7.14 wins per team since 2002. The only way to know how good or bad that number is if you take each division's highest winning team since 2002 out of the equation, and then calculate what the average total wins per year are for the remaining teams of each division. I'll try and do the math later if I have some time.

 

Update: The AFC East ranks 6th when you subtract the teams with the most wins out of each division.

 

Average wins per season by division since 2002

NFC South minus NO (23.94)

NFC East minus PHI (23.51)

AFC West minus DEN (22.51)

AFC North minus PIT (21.69)

NFC North minus GB (21.50)

AFC East minus NE (21.44)

AFC South minus IND (20.94)

NFC West minus SEA (20.63)

 

[Cosmic]

4 hours ago, Tracy Jordan said:

 

You have to consider that the Patriots have averaged 12.37 wins per year during that span, which accounts for more than a third (roughly 36%) of the AFC East's average win total. This means that the rest of the AFC East has averaged only 7.14 wins per team since 2002. The only way to know how good or bad that number is if you take each division's highest winning team since 2002 out of the equation, and then calculate what the average total wins per year are for the remaining teams of each division. I'll try and do the math later if I have some time.

I considered that, but I didn't want to stare at standings tables any more last night. Still, I think the Patriots' winning percentage against the division and the rest of the league is a pretty good indicator.

 

Here's the average number of wins per non-divisional winner team (edit: and whole division for better comparison with Tracy Jordan) since the current alignment began in 2002. The AFC East number is also just minus the Patriots, since they lost the division title on tiebreakers both years they haven't won the AFC East. Interestingly, the AFC East also had the worst single year of any division in this metric; in the year the Pats went 16-0, the rest of the division combined only had 12 wins.

 

NFC East (7.21)(21.63)

AFC East (7.15)(21.44)

NFC South (7.06)(21.19)

AFC North (6.98)(20.94)

AFC West (6.77)(20.31)

NFC North (6.65)(19.93)

AFC South (6.58)(19.75)

NFC West (6.33)(19.00)

 

(Anyone is welcome to double check my numbers if they care to)

 

People act like the AFC East is the Patriots and three Cleveland Brownses, but it's not. It's the Patriots and three regular teams that have to play the MFing Patriots twice a year. 

[Cosmic]

5 hours ago, Tracy Jordan said:

Update: The AFC East ranks 6th when you subtract the teams with the most wins out of each division.

 

Average wins per season by division since 2002

NFC South minus NO (23.94)

NFC East minus PHI (23.51)

AFC West minus DEN (22.51)

AFC North minus PIT (21.69)

NFC North minus GB (21.50)

AFC East minus NE (21.44)

AFC South minus IND (20.94)

NFC West minus SEA (20.63)

I don't think that's a bad number. I don't think it's a stretch to say that 4-5-6 are all pretty close to each other there. It's never been my contention that the peon AFC East teams are the best, but just that they're not awful. Nevertheless, I don't think that way of calculating it is entirely fair, since the Patriots never have a down year. You're always taking away a good year from the AFC East calculation, when all the other teams that you've subtracted have had down years. I understand, though, that the AFC East is an outlier, because the "good" team never changes. Because they're the GD Patriots. You could hold it against the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins for not "rising up" to challenge the Patriots better, but it's probably the greatest freaking team of all time.

 

There have been individual years where the Patriots' record outside the AFC East was not great, but there have also been years where they've done worse in the division than out. Overall, they've only done only slightly better in the AFC East than against the rest of the league. The Patriots have literally won the Super Bowl 1/3 of the time that Brady has been the starter; they're not just feasting on a weak division.

 

Edit: Based on winning percentage, if the Patriots lost as much against the AFC East as against the rest of the league, they would have lost... about one more game total over 16 years.

[BBTV]

If you're taking the top in the division out (which is necessary), then you should also take the intra-division games out, since the AFC-East teams will have very few wins since the Patriots gobble them up, while the other divisions with more parity will inherently have more, regardless of division strength.  Enjoy looking all that up.

[Cosmic]

48 minutes ago, BringBackTheVet said:

If you're taking the top in the division out (which is necessary), then you should also take the intra-division games out, since the AFC-East teams will have very few wins since the Patriots gobble them up, while the other divisions with more parity will inherently have more, regardless of division strength.  Enjoy looking all that up.

Nah I'm good. I probably should have stopped after the Patriots' winning percentage. The short version of all the charts and graphs is that the Patriots are really, really good.

[BBTV]

21 minutes ago, Cosmic said:

Nah I'm good. I probably should have stopped after the Patriots' winning percentage. The short version of all the charts and graphs is that the Patriots are really, really good.

 

Hot take.

[DG_ThenNowForever]

I think you need to adjust for cheating. If you add in a cheating variable, how does that affect Patriots expected win percentage? 

 

I'm no mathematician, but my assumption is basically eff the Patriots.

[Cosmic]

4 minutes ago, DG_Now said:

I think you need to adjust for cheating. If you add in a cheating variable, how does that affect Patriots expected win percentage? 

 

I'm no mathematician, but my assumption is basically eff the Patriots.

A couple more columns in my spreadsheet, and I think I can get the Bills a retroactive Super Bowl and marry Giselle.

[neo_prankster]

Anyone hear about the teal colored concessions at the Jaguars' playoff game?

 

https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2018/01/04/Jacksonville-Jaguars-serving-teal-burgers-and-beer-for-playoff-game/4281515092303/?spt=su&or=btn_tw

[Gary]

28 minutes ago, neo_prankster said:

Anyone hear about the teal colored concessions at the Jaguars' playoff game?

 

https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2018/01/04/Jacksonville-Jaguars-serving-teal-burgers-and-beer-for-playoff-game/4281515092303/?spt=su&or=btn_tw

 

Mall I can think are the pretty patties from SpongeBob

[neo_prankster]

4 minutes ago, Gary. said:

 

Mall I can think are the pretty patties from SpongeBob

 

I'm sure someone will actually do a tartan pattern hamburger patty pretty soon.

[Cosmic]

Does donating 1,000 tickets mean they couldn't sell them? I mean, it's a great gesture and all, but it just seems like something that would be better done during the regular season.

[neo_prankster]

Just now, Cosmic said:

Does donating 1,000 tickets mean they couldn't sell them? I mean, it's a great gesture and all, but it just seems like something that would be better done during the regular season.

 

I'm sure it was a local sponsor or an elementary school that probably bought those tickets.

[Pauly]

Have the Rams ever hosted a playoff game at home under the lights?

[neo_prankster]

14 minutes ago, Pauly said:

Have the Rams ever hosted a playoff game at home under the lights?

 

I'm not sure.

[dfwabel]

OK, Pats fans (& "stoolies") will quickly unite again on reddit and Twitter...

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread180105/beginning-end-new-england-patriots-robert-kraft-tom-brady-bill-belichick-internal-power-struggle

 

Excerpt:

Quote

Brady snapped, pivoting to McDaniels and yelling at him, "I got it!" Everyone within earshot, including head coach Bill Belichick, turned to watch as Brady screamed. He removed his helmet, and as a Patriots staffer held him back - and with McDaniels' father and legendary high school coach in Ohio, Thom, in the stands behind the bench - capped off the exchange by yelling, "F--- you!"

Video of the scene went viral, with many rationalizing it as a symptom of Brady's legendary competitiveness. Brady would later apologize to McDaniels, who dismissed the incident to reporters as "part of what makes him great."

 

After all, many in the Patriots' building knew that Brady's explosion wasn't really about McDaniels. It wasn't about Cooks. And it wasn't about the Bills game. It was about the culmination of months of significant behind-the-scenes frustrations. For almost two decades, Belichick has managed to subvert the egos of his best player, his boss and himself for the good of the team, yielding historic results. This year, though, the dynamics have been different.

THE PATRIOTS ARE in uncharted territory. They haven't just won games and titles. They've won at an unprecedented rate and over an unprecedented span, which makes the feelings of entitlement creeping inside Gillette Stadium unprecedented as well. The Patriots, in the only statement anyone associated with the team would make on the record for this story, responded to specific questions by saying that there are "several inaccuracies and multiple examples given that absolutely did not occur," though they declined to go into detail. But according to interviews with more than a dozen New England staffers, executives, players and league sources with knowledge of the team's inner-workings, the three most powerful people in the franchise -- Belichick, Brady and owner Robert Kraft -- have had serious disagreements. They differ on Brady's trainer, body coach and business partner Alex Guerrero; over the team's long-term plans at quarterback; over Belichick's bracing coaching style; and most of all, over who will be the last man standing. Those interviewed describe a palpable sense in the building that this might be the last year together for this group.

 

Brady, Belichick and Kraft have raised expectations and possibilities so high that virtually no other team in the Super Bowl era could truly comprehend what it's like to be them. Brady and Belichick weren't only pushing the boundaries of what a team could accomplish. They also were challenging basic understandings of how a group of high-achievers escape the usual pulls of ego and pride. For 17 years, the Patriots have withstood everything the NFL and opponents could throw their way, knowing that if they were united, nobody could touch them. Now they're threatening to come undone the only way possible: from within.