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2018 MLB Hot Stove Season

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Dodgers just dealt Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, and Charlie Culberson to the Braves for Matt Kemp... 

 

Talk about exchanging bottles for cans. 

 

EDIT: Atlanta has ALREADY DFA'd Gonzalez, and the Dodgers are likely to do the same with Kemp.

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I really don't know why the Rays would do this. Span is absolute GARBAGE and is one of the most expensive options at his position in the game. Arroyo is promising, but his callup last year was NOT good. Trading them for Longoria AND cash? That's highway robbery on paper. I hope there isn't something wrong with Longoria that the Rays are hiding because that's the only way this makes sense for them. 

 

This is probably the the happiest I've been with a Giants trade since they got Jason Schmidt and Jon Vander Wal for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong (who they ended up getting back a decade later, so hold firm, Arroyo!). 

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1 hour ago, Bucfan56 said:

I really don't know why the Rays would do this. Span is absolute GARBAGE and is one of the most expensive options at his position in the game. Arroyo is promising, but his callup last year was NOT good. Trading them for Longoria AND cash? That's highway robbery on paper. I hope there isn't something wrong with Longoria that the Rays are hiding because that's the only way this makes sense for them. 

 

This is probably the the happiest I've been with a Giants trade since they got Jason Schmidt and Jon Vander Wal for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong (who they ended up getting back a decade later, so hold firm, Arroyo!). 

I dont expect anything to be wrong with Longoria.  As much as i didnt expect the trade to be made, I understand why it happened.  

 

The main reason the Rays moved now is that Longo had the 5/10 rule about to come into effect with the Rays, when players who have been with a club for 5 consecutive years and have been a major league player for 10 years cannot be traded without their consent. (ie. No trade Clause)

 

The Rays organization as a whole has avoided giving no trade clauses out as it handcuffs their flexibility.

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And I'm betting Span went back to the Rays for the same reason that the Yankees sent Starlin Castro to the Marlins - to balance out salary for the 2018 season, for luxury tax purposes. I can guarantee that Span did not go to the Rays for baseball reasons.

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The Giants are trying to squeeze one last drop of relevance from Posey and Bumgarner's prime years before they'll have to commit to a total rebuild. Giving up one of their best prospects for a 32-year old who just had his worst season isn't going to work, but at least they're trying. A savvy front office that only cared about winning would sell everything now and fast-track the rebuild, but the Giants don't do things like that. Management knows how the SF fans emotionally connect to their homegrown players. Nobody wants to become the Astros and tank with a barren roster for half a decade even if it eventually results in a WS win, so the Giants will at least be able to sell nostalgia for the next several years as they lose 90+ games.

 

I can already see all the pregame ceremonies: Buster Posey Day, 2010 10th Anniversary Day, Brian Wilson and the team kiss and make up Day, Bruce Bochy Retirement Ceremony. The team won't win, but they'll still sell tickets. 

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And, as I saw pointed out on Twitter, Span's line for 2017 was actually better than Longoria...

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11 hours ago, LMU said:

And, as I saw pointed out on Twitter, Span's line for 2017 was actually better than Longoria...

 

Here's the thing: while we all think of Evan Longoria as an all-Star caliber player and a franchise cornerstone, the reality is that he hasn't been that since 2013:

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
                                                           
2013 27 TBR AL 160 693 614 91 165 39 3 32 88 1 0 70 162 .269 .343 .498 .842 133 306 16 3 0 6 10 *5D MVP-6
2014 28 TBR AL 162 700 624 83 158 26 1 22 91 5 0 57 133 .253 .320 .404 .724 107 252 15 9 1 9 11 *5/D  
2015 29 TBR AL 160 670 604 74 163 35 1 21 73 3 1 51 132 .270 .328 .435 .764 112 263 11 6 0 9 8 *5D  
2016 30 TBR AL 160 685 633 81 173 41 4 36 98 0 3 42 144 .273 .318 .521 .840 127 330 13 3 0 7 6 *5/D MVP-19
2017 31 TBR AL 156 677 613 71 160 36 2 20 86 6 1 46 109 .261 .313 .424 .737 100 260 18 6 0 12 3 *5D GG

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary Pos Awards
                                               
2013 27 TBR AL 160 693 24 -3 -1 12 1 34 3.9 24 58 6.2 .523 .522 4.8 1.6 46 $6,000,000 *5D MVP-6
2014 28 TBR AL 162 700 7 1 0 -5 2 6 0.9 25 30 3.3 .504 .504 3.7 -0.1 35 $7,500,000 *5/D  
2015 29 TBR AL 160 670 6 -1 0 -1 2 6 0.8 24 30 3.2 .504 .504 3.3 0.2 31 $11,000,000 *5D  
2016 30 TBR AL 160 685 21 -1 0 -9 2 13 1.5 24 37 3.9 .508 .508 4.7 -0.7 46 $11,500,000 *5/D MVP-19
2017 31 TBR AL 156 677 -3 1 1 11 2 12 1.3 24 36 3.6 .508 .508 2.5 1.3 25 $13,000,000 *5D GG

 

(I bolded his bWAR in the second table to highlight it.)

 

Over the past 4 years, he's a .264/.320/.447 hitter averaging 25 HRs and 3.5 WAR a year. A good player, but an All-Star? Not at all. The Evan Longoria of 2010 is long, long gone, but it was a graceful and slow enough decline that I think he still carries much of that reputation with him.

 

Evan Longoria is not going to put the Giants back into contention in 2018. He's not the difference-maker he was 5 years ago. They're going to need a lot more to go right - whether improved performance out of existing players, or new acquisitions - to get back into contention this year.

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Yeah Longoria isn't what he once was, but the price was hard to beat. Had you told me that the Giants had traded Denard Span and his entire contract without telling me the return, I'd already be happy because that's a HUGE cut. I like Arroyo and think he's got a lot of promise, but Longoria outpacing him for the next five seasons wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Fact is, the Giants just filled a huge hole they've had at third since good Pablo left and cut salary to do so (which means they can actually sign another outfielder or two to try and fill that hole). And all it cost was an absolute albatross of a contract and a prospect who's promising but was ultimately expendable. It's no Giancarlo Stanton, but it's a positive move IMO. I'll take it. 

 

Also, and this part may be a bit crazy, but I still don't think this Giants core is as bad as last year indicated. There was a whole lot of everything going wrong at the same time there and I still think they can bounce back and have a good season. This move shows that the front office probably feels the same thing. 

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Seems to have flown under the radar, but the Orioles have had a truly terrible offseason.  Where to begin?

 

How about the fact that they trade to trade Manny Machado, one of the game's biggest superstars and sure to get a massive contract on the open market, with one year remaining on his deal, expecting to get a dream package.  No team is realistically going to give the Orioles what they were looking for for one year of a superstar if there's not essentially an agreement that he'll sign with them after 2018.  They should've traded him last offseason, and gotten the haul they wanted, setting themselves up for a necessary rebuild.  Now, with the Orioles reportedly giving up on trading Machado because they - listen to this - weren't impressed with the trade packages they were being offered. *shocked gasps*

 

Speaking of players that should've been dealt following the 2016 season, there may not have ever been a bigger trade market for a closer than following Zach Britton's dominant 2016 season.  He hadn't blown a single save that year and was undoubtedly baseball's best closer.  Trade him then, and you get another mega-haul that, again, sets you up nicely for a necessary rebuild.  Instead, the Orioles hung onto him, he got hurt, then rebuilt his trade value somewhat in 2017, we passed on trading him at the deadline in favor of a postseason chase (which didn't pan out), and now he's injured again, this time much more seriously, as he tore his Achilles.  His trade value is now completely cratered, and the Orioles will probably lose him for nothing.

 

Okay, so the Orioles didn't trade two superstars after a playoff season. Thanks to hindsight, we now know that that was the wrong decision, but you can still somewhat see the logic behind Dan Duquette's decision (incredibly flawed logic, I might add, but still logic).  There seems to be no logic, however, to the fact that the Orioles have not signed a single starting pitcher in free agency nor have they dealt for one via trade.  Starting pitching has literally been the Orioles' weakness since they became a playoff contender in 2012.  For going on six years now, the Orioles have been unable to address their biggest weakness.  Currently the 2017 Orioles starting rotation looks like this:

 

Kevin Gausman (shown flashes but still has yet to be consistent in the Majors, still has time though)

Dylan Bundy (probably the best pitcher of this group, but like Gausman last year was inconsistent at times, still has plenty of time)

Ubaldo Jimenez (dry heave)

Gabriel Ynoa (who?)

Miguel Castro (long reliever last year that, IIRC, struggled when asked to start)

 

That's two-fifths of a Major League rotation.  That's inexcusable.  And now Duquette refuses to improve it, I assume, because he doesn't want to just recklessly throw money at starting pitchers.  That's reasonable, except for the fact that Duquette has essentially committed to fringe contending by refusing to deal Machado and Britton.  If that's the case, why is he not putting money into fringe contending?  I guess it's good for the next GM that he won't have a Ubaldo-like albatross contract for a pitcher to deal with when he inevitably rebuilds, but I'd rather see Duquette either 100% commit to rebuilding, or 100% commit to fringe contending, and he hasn't done either.

 

You can probably consider this as my annual "x amount of steps for a successful Orioles offseason" post because honestly I can't see a way out for the Orioles right now.  Their decisions over the last few years have doomed them to a rebuild, with no valuable assets to speak of.  And I haven't even gone into the Davis and Trumbo contracts.  It'll be a solid 5 years before they can even think about contending again.

 

Excuse the long post, but I had time and I needed to vent about the O's offseason.  It's been a disgrace.

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On 12/20/2017 at 8:08 PM, kroywen said:

And I'm betting Span went back to the Rays for the same reason that the Yankees sent Starlin Castro to the Marlins - to balance out salary for the 2018 season, for luxury tax purposes. I can guarantee that Span did not go to the Rays for baseball reasons.

I do think this theory is right, and my gut says Span doesn't make it with the Rays past spring training.  Span did grow up in Tampa, so who knows, but he makes way too much to be our 4th OF.

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8 minutes ago, AstroBull21 said:

I do think this theory is right, and my gut says Span doesn't make it with the Rays past spring training.  Span did grow up in Tampa, so who knows, but he makes way too much to be our 4th OF.

 

I'm guessing that Span has as much of a chance of being with the Rays on Opening Day as Starling Castro does with the Marlins. Which is to say, next to zero.

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Donaldson and the Jays avoided arbitration with a 1-year, 23 million dollar deal.

 

If the Jays aren't competitive this coming season/the season is a total disaster; Donaldson is probably going to get traded.

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2012 me is so excited for this Giants roster. 

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