mr.nascar13

Introducing the Alliance of American Football

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8 minutes ago, dfwabel said:

Season 1 will likely be called a "success" by CBS/CBSSN, but a true failure at the box office as they'll struggle to average 15K/game.

 

Given the markets they're going into, I think 15,000 a game might be low.  Memphis and Salt Lake City will do well, in part because Memphis wants to get back on a par with Nashville and Salt Lake City will see it as an opportunity to be perceived as more "major league."  If these people know what they're doing, they'll average 25,000 - 35,000 there.  Orlando's a mystery; Spurrier will be a big draw early on, but the secret of the Tampa Bay Bandits success wasn't the on-field product as much as it was everything that went on around it.  Atlanta and Phoenix will have decent opening weekends but I suspect their attendance will drop like a stone over time.

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29 minutes ago, Mac the Knife said:

 

Given the markets they're going into, I think 15,000 a game might be low.  Memphis and Salt Lake City will do well, in part because Memphis wants to get back on a par with Nashville and Salt Lake City will see it as an opportunity to be perceived as more "major league."  If these people know what they're doing, they'll average 25,000 - 35,000 there.  Orlando's a mystery; Spurrier will be a big draw early on, but the secret of the Tampa Bay Bandits success wasn't the on-field product as much as it was everything that went on around it.  Atlanta and Phoenix will have decent opening weekends but I suspect their attendance will drop like a stone over time.

Memphis will not do well as they're going up against college basketball and new coach/local legend Penny Hardaway. I've already alluded to their increase ticket demand and donor support pages back and it's gaining steam.

Memphis sports radio* is already predicting 12K or them just filling "the blue seats (chairbacks)" in the Liberty Bowl. They also mentioned that Memphians won't see a game in heat or cold, so the weather is also key for them.

 

*-I don't live there by two time zones and never have, but I listen to Gary Parrish.

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We shall see.  Where Memphis is concerned, neither good turnout nor bad would surprise me... but if it's bad, I think I'd blame the Liberty Bowl as a facility far more than I would credit Penny Hardaway.  I mean, local legend or not, large numbers of people aren't going to drop money to watch him walk up and down a sideline; which, not coincidentally, is a long term issue I see with the AAF as a whole.  Having 'name' coaches gets you sizzle while you're trying to create the steak, but ultimately they're only going to do so much that helps your bottom line.

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5 hours ago, BringBackTheVet said:

 

1. Your name stops being mentioned, and you're no longer a "hot" coordinator.

2. You're almost guaranteed to fail, and even if you do a great job, it's practically impossible for an NFL GM to rate you because the league's talent level is generally low and all over the place, so who the hell knows how much you had to do with anything?

3. Your pay would likely be less than half of what you're making as an NFL coordinator.  Maybe less than 1/4.

4. What DFWabel said - if you need to go to the AAF for a shot, then you're not an up-and-coming coordinator.

 

If you're an assistant DB coach and want to have at least one HC position to put on your resume, in hopes of maybe returning to the league as a higher-level assistant?  Then sure.

So far there hasn't been a reported NCAA assistant or NFL coach who has resigned to join this.

 

I'll wait until these guys hire assistant coaches and we'll see who are former NCAA/NFL coaches who ain't working or who is a former NFL player with zero coaching experience who just needs a check. I guess Dave Campo, Ted Cottrell, Buddy Guis, Terry Shea, John Jenkins, and Jim Fassel are waiting for the call.

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4 hours ago, dfwabel said:

I'll wait until these guys hire assistant coaches and we'll see who are former NCAA/NFL coaches who ain't working or who is a former NFL player with zero coaching experience who just needs a check. I guess Dave Campo, Ted Cottrell, Buddy Guis, Terry Shea, John Jenkins, and Jim Fassel are waiting for the call.

 

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18 minutes ago, tigers said:

This is really dragging out.

Well those who make decisions on things like facility leases just don't meet daily.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, dfwabel said:

 

Well those who make decisions on things like facility leases just don't meet daily.

 

 

 

Are you sure?

 

Three months to announce five areas and the coaches is more than drawn out.

Why announce an area if you don't have somewhere to play yet?

 

This is the UFL all over.

 

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The USFL did announce markets before they had deals in place for their venues.  In fact they didn't have a single lease signed when they held their press conference.  It bit them in the ass, big time.

 

I don't blame 'em for not announcing without a lease in place.  What I blame 'em for is not having the leases in place.  AAF has a WFL air to it in the sense that they're trying to slap it together on an accelerated timetable; trying to get started before another event outside their control occurs.  With the WFL it was a likely NFL players strike; with the AAF it's the XFL's launch in 2020.

 

I wouldn't say it's the UFL all over.  In the AAF I see shades of every league over the past half century that's started up and failed though, and that's not good.

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19 hours ago, dfwabel said:

Paragraph 2: The reason why I don't go to HS games is that I'm not in HS and unless you've got a kid playing or in the  band, it's really not for you.

 

But do you watch college games?

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12 hours ago, tigers said:

Three months to announce five areas and the coaches is more than drawn out.

 

While I'll agree that this barnstorming tour of market reveals and coaching announcements isn't optimal, it hasn't hit the 90-day mark quite yet. 

 

From revealing that Steve Spurrier had been hired to coach its Orlando-based franchise to introducing Rick Neuheisel as the coach of the Phoenix area franchise, it has taken the Alliance of American Football 42 days "to announce five areas and the coaches" that will lead the teams in said markets. In other words, just under a month-and-a-half.

 

In fact, it took 79 days for the Alliance of American Football to announce its launch, identify five of its eight inaugural markets, and name the head coaches for those five franchises.

Whether the league will roll-out its remaining three markets - as well as name the coaches who will lead said teams - in the next 11 to 48 days remains to be seen. However, whether you chose to start the AAF's launch countdown clock at the moment it announced its very existence, or opted to begin when the league introduced Steve Spurrier as the coach of its Orlando-based franchise, we still haven't hit the three month mark of "drawn out" launches.

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The big problem both the XFL and AAF face is that they've both stated they'll have eight teams. So, no matter what happens, they'll have to have eight teams to follow through with their promise. It's entirely possible that a city or two aren't beneficial to the league. Maybe their lease is ridiculous or the venue doesn't want them. Maybe overall projections don't pan out for the cost, etc. They're stuck trying to cram more teams in than might be feasible.

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Syk, I don't think the number's the problem.  I think the AAF's time frame is.

 

I'd bet $20 that 20 years from now, when the history of the AAF (and relaunched XFL) are in the past, it'll be common knowledge among sports fans that Charlie Ebersol had no initial plans to launch a league in 2019 until Vince McMahon actually went ahead and announced his plans for the XFL relaunch.  That at that point, Ebersol felt a need to pull the trigger and move his timetable way up from whenever it was initially.  From there, Daddy DICK set up the pitch meetings to some of his VC buddies, and since Charlie's a likable kid who's got enough bull**** to fertilize the Sinai and indirect connections with the NFL?  They figured they'd back him and see what happened.

 

I'm guessing, however, that AAF is nowhere near as well capitalized as Charlie's putting on, and that the "7 to 10 year timetable" he speaks of to the media makes some seriously misguided presumptions that simply aren't going to pan out.  Once those presumptions aren't met (a wildly missed revenue projection, failure to land a true network TV deal within a reasonable time frame, something), the VC spigot will be turned off and the league will die a quick death.

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On 5/21/2018 at 3:48 PM, Mac the Knife said:

Syk, I don't think the number's the problem.  I think the AAF's time frame is.

 

I'd bet $20 that 20 years from now, when the history of the AAF (and relaunched XFL) are in the past, it'll be common knowledge among sports fans that Charlie Ebersol had no initial plans to launch a league in 2019 until Vince McMahon actually went ahead and announced his plans for the XFL relaunch.  That at that point, Ebersol felt a need to pull the trigger and move his timetable way up from whenever it was initially.  From there, Daddy DICK set up the pitch meetings to some of his VC buddies, and since Charlie's a likable kid who's got enough bull**** to fertilize the Sinai and indirect connections with the NFL?  They figured they'd back him and see what happened.

 

I'm guessing, however, that AAF is nowhere near as well capitalized as Charlie's putting on, and that the "7 to 10 year timetable" he speaks of to the media makes some seriously misguided presumptions that simply aren't going to pan out.  Once those presumptions aren't met (a wildly missed revenue projection, failure to land a true network TV deal within a reasonable time frame, something), the VC spigot will be turned off and the league will die a quick death.

I think Ebersol is moving faster because he wants to take advantage of the sports betting ruling, if he's up and running next year as states get their sports books online he'll be the only one running the sport everyone likes to bet on while the NFL and NCAA are in the off seasons. McMahon is bringing back the XFL due to his ego, the thought that live events equal ratings then big tv contracts and that the Trump voters will flock to his league because he's forcing his players to stand for the National Anthem. McMahon and the XFL name has a 747 worth of baggage associated with it, there's no way that Ebersol or anyone starting up a spring league could have any association with them.

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So SD gets a team and a coach (Mike Martz). Two to go. If they don't hit the Northeast and Chicago/St. Louis, then I think they are screwed.

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18 minutes ago, NYC Cosmos said:

So SD gets a team and a coach (Mike Martz). Two to go. If they don't hit the Northeast and Chicago/St. Louis, then I think they are screwed.

It's minor league football. They're screwed no matter what. 

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On 5/19/2018 at 11:45 AM, Mac the Knife said:

 

Given the markets they're going into, I think 15,000 a game might be low.  Memphis and Salt Lake City will do well, in part because Memphis wants to get back on a par with Nashville and Salt Lake City will see it as an opportunity to be perceived as more "major league."  If these people know what they're doing, they'll average 25,000 - 35,000 there.  Orlando's a mystery; Spurrier will be a big draw early on, but the secret of the Tampa Bay Bandits success wasn't the on-field product as much as it was everything that went on around it.  Atlanta and Phoenix will have decent opening weekends but I suspect their attendance will drop like a stone over time.

 

I think the "big" name coaches will help to provide a sense of legitimacy to the league.  Quality of play will matter quite a bit.  That is where the XFL failed.  They had no preseason and very short camps and the teams were just not ready to play.  I think if the leaguewide average is 20,000 they are in great shape.  

 

The issue most of these leagues have, and I include WLAF in this, is that by the very nature of the game you are going to have some team(s) that goes 2-8, 1-9 or 0-10 and how do you get fans to go to those games late in the year.  People will rally around a winning team, even if it is a minor league team, but to be minor league, with no name players and only a coach's reputation to sell tickets, that is the issue.

 

I think a single-entity system helps with this, because every ticket sold in Orlando helps to keep Atlanta afloat, but in the end, if the games are close and the play is good, and a few names come out of the league and make it to the NFL and are successful there (a la Kurt Warner) the league can draw in a range that will keep it afloat (20-30k).  But they better plan for there to be a few stinker teams with bad records and worse crowds, and not jump on the relocation/contraction bandwagon too soon.  Commit to those markets so fans can commit to the teams, even when they are bad in season 1 or 2. 

 

By the way, i still wish they were open to having 10 teams instead of 8, because someone in the St. Louis, Sacramento, New Orleans, Louisville, Oakland and San Antonio pool is going to get left out, and I think all of those markets could work for the AAF.  Maybe they do well in year 1 and add 2 teams in year 2. 

 

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On 3/20/2018 at 8:38 PM, Sec19Row53 said:

I'm telling you it's doomed to fail.

 

Long-term survival, no.  But I could see this going for several years if done correctly, and so far it's looking good for them, IMHO.  It really is reminding me more of the USFL as these are serious football guys with lots of experience in the game, where the XFL not run by a "football guy" and the UFL was horribly bungled from the start.  And then there was the A11FL which gave us cool logos for teams that never had anyone working for them...lol.

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