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How much are draft busts affected by where they go teamwise?


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People label Kijana Carter a bust and I think that's unfair to him. He tore his ACL on his first carry of his first preseason game because the Silverdome's astroturf was death-carpet.

The Bengals had the #5 pick that year and traded it and their second rounder to Carolina for #1 because Mike Brown wanted the Columbus native to play in Ohio. If he goes to Carolina instead then who knows what would've happened. Maybe that changes the 96 NFC championship. It definitely would've changed the Bengals' fate - they could've had Kevin Carter and Curtis Martin instead.

Let's say the injury doesn't happen while he's on the Bengals. A healthy Carter running with Corey Dillon and that's a dangerous combination. The defense was swiss cheese and their coaching was idiotic, but maybe the Bengals aren't the worst team of the 90's if his injury doesn't happen.

But it's also hard to gauge how good he would've been on another team because literally every Penn State running back in the 90's was a bust. It's safe to assume he would've been a pretty average running back in the NFL even without the ACL injury and if he played for another team other than the blackhole Bengals.

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The 2003 NBA Draft is a pretty interesting case study for this topic. Going off of memory, the top five were LeBron, Darko, Melo, Wade and Bosh. Of those five, four have championships and Darko was the first.

If Dumars drafts for talent instead of need, does Melo have a championship already? Or two? Those Pistons teams were stacked and Melo was good out of the gate.

LeBron is the transcendent talent of the group (and of the decade), but Wade has had more team success. If Melo goes to Detroit, does that change? Sure is an interesting question.

None of these guys, except for Darko, is a bust. And I tend to think that would have been the case regardless of who drafted who.

The bold is a point about how important team is to player perception though. Only a nitwit calls Lebron a "bust" but he takes a lot of heat for lacking team success. Of course 7 years in "UFA-Repellent" Cleveland hurt his chances...and imagine the perception of Melo if he has a title now, even as a Rookie with the Pistons. He'd be the same player but he'd "have a title". And that would matter, a lot, in terms of perception.

It's funny that Darko has a ring...Had the Heat won, Oden would have gotten one before Durant...that would have been funny.

I may be wrong, but didn't Melo clash with Larry Brown on Team USA in '04? Brown was also the coach of the Pistons then, so if Anthony goes to Detroit, couldn't one of these two things happen?:

1. Carmelo and Brown argue on the Pistons, their squabbling pulls the team down, and the team loses to the Pacers in the ECF. Melo or Larry Brown don't go to Athens, and maybe, maybe, Shaq & Kobe stay together for another year because L.A. wins in '04.

2. Carmelo adjusts to Brown and the Pistons, Detroit wins the 2004 title, Team USA wins the gold, the Pistons make a few more Finals, and Anthony vs. LeBron is the NBA's premier rivalry, with Carmelo & LeBron in the same division.

I am the Hardwood Harry Turtledove, apparently.

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Or Tim Couch- let's say if he been drafted by the Bears instead of the Browns and Cleveland screws up with someone slse. 1999- McCown/Miller/Matthews had good moments with Marcus Robinson/Marty Booker/Engram/Conway in Crowton's pass-heavy offense.

Couch is a great example. Cleveland didn't put anyone at all around him. Here are some of their draft picks from 99-01:

1999 Round 2: Kevin Johnson (could have had Peerless Price)

Round 3: Marquis Smith (could have had Marty Booker)

2000 Round 1: Courtney Brown (Chris Samuels should have been the pick. If you have a young QB, get an elite LT)

Round 2: Dennis Northcutt (could have had Marvel Smith for more protection)

Round 3: Travis Prentice and JaJuan Dawson (could have had LaVernaues Coles and Darrell Jackson)

2001 Round 1: Gerard Warren (Could have had LT)

Round 2: Quincy Morgan (Could have had Kris Jenkins or Alge Crumpler)

Round 3: James Jackson (could have had Steve Smith or Reggie Hayward)

And that's how young QB's get killed.

With QB's, though, you can go the other way. For example, let's say that Tom Brady gets his wish 14 years ago, and is taken by the 49ers in the seventh round, after Bill Belichick ignores Dick Rehbein's wishes, and takes Tim Rattay.

Well, here's what probably happens:

1. I have no doubt that Brady works himself up to the #2 role. However, he doesn't become the full-fledged starter until 2004, because Jeff Garcia played in all but three games for the Niners from 00-03. He was a better fit for Mariucci's WCO than Brady.

2. In 04, Tom leads SF to a few more wins than Rattay did, but Erickson is still fired, and Mike Nolan still comes in. The Niners are drafting fifth or sixth in this reality, as Miami gets the #1 pick. Either the Dolphins take Alex Smith #1 overall, and the Niners "settle" for A-Rod, or the Fins and Niners swap picks, and they still get Smith. Either way, I see Nolan taking a QB.

3. Brady still plays for a couple years, and does OK, but without Belichick's system, and the breaks he got, his career isn't the same, and he gets replaced during the 06 season because the coaches feel that it is time to play Smith or A-Rod.

4. Brady gets traded to another team (like NE, Baltimore, or Miami), and has a decent career, but isn't looked at like he is today.

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