October's Over: The 2014-15 MLB off-season thread.

[BigBubba]

Apparently paying Adam Lind a one-year $7.5M option to platoon DH/1B was too much. So the Jays went out and gave Martin $17M over 5 years to presumably platoon DH/1B/C. Nice.

[TheOldRoman]

Martin's going to catch 120-130 games a year if he's healthy, and he wouldn't be DHing until years 4 or 5 likely. I don't follow the Blue Jays, but reading online everybody was like "Oh, Lind's productive, but they wanted to clear up salary to resign Melky. Then they go and decide to throw monopoly money at a really good catcher and but him through age 36. I don't know what they're doing.

[dfwabel]

Stanton, Marlins Talk $300 Million Deal . I will see it before i belive it !

Report is $325,000,000 over 13 years, with no-trade provisions and Stanton having an opt-out clause once he turns 30. And if anyone in South Florida buys a single ticket thinking Stanton's going to be around until 2027, they should be committed.

Stanton's opt-out coincides with the negotiation period of the Marlins current local TV deal. They need him to increase its future value.

[TheRicSlick]

Well..

Stanton signs 13 year, $325 million dollar contract.

[CS85]

Well..

Stanton signs 13 year, $325 million dollar contract.

[Kramerica Industries]

With respect to Heyward, I don't doubt his defensive acumen. I've seen enough Braves games to know how well he profiles in the outfield. That said, there are a couple factors here as to why I, quite liberally, toss the "overrated" tag on Heyward.

1. I'm a proponent of the development of defensive metrics, but they are far from perfect. Unlike all the various offensive statistics and stuff that has been put together that, ultimately, will all say the same thing (OPS, wOBA, wRC+, whatever, they are all going to say Barry Bonds circa 2001 was the most freakishly amazing hitter ever). Defensive metrics don't say this. Here's an article from Yankee blog River Avenue Blues talking about Elvis Andrus; focus on the part that shows a table of his defensive metrics according to the various systems. Look at how, in 2013, DRS shows him as a +11 defensive player, while FRAA shows him as a -5.2 player. I don't have to fully understand the metrics to know that positive indicates above average and negative indicate below average. How someone can be so above average from one system, and then below average to another, shows to me that there are still a great number of inconsistencies with the tracking of defensive metrics. Personally, I don't take the literal numbers at face value; if the general consensus from the systems shows a player in the plus range (or negative range), and it checks out based on what I see personally when I watch them play, then I'll agree that said player is above/below average.
2. Jason Heyward is a corner outfielder. That is a traditionally offensive-laden position. Up the middle positions are the ones where defensive is generally more valued, given the amount of ground those players have to cover or, in the catchers case, be able to do his part in controlling the running game, calling a good game for his pitchers, framing, etc. If Heyward were a CF, I would lend more credence to his defensive acumen being the primary aspect of his contributions. As it is, at an offensive position? I need to value his offense, first and foremost. This also leads me to...
3. As a 21-22 year old in 2010, he was an .849 OPS bat in 142 games. After a down season in 2011, he was an .814 OPS bat in 2012. Since then? .776 in 2013, and a .735 this year. This is someone who started off his career with a bang (literally, I remember his first AB being a bomb of a HR against Carlos Zambrano) and, in general, has only regressed with the bat each season since. This is disconcerting. I know that offense has died in this game over the last few years; I've made plenty of posts here and hundreds of tweets lamenting this, but the wrong direction is the wrong direction. A .735 OPS might've been above average by 2014 standards, but I doubt .735 was the benchmark for corner OF'ers, even in the National League. I'm not saying he can't get better still, but the trends aren't positive. I'm not going to ignore those.
4. Lastly, my somewhat-vague knowledge of how Wins Above Replacement works tends to overvalue the importance of defense, IMO. It's entirely possible I undervalue it. Personally, I'm of the belief that offense is not only a lot more important than defense (the 2005 Yankees were the worst defensive team in recorded history but they won 95 games, for example), but that with the direction baseball has taken in recent years, it's also going to only become more important as run-producing bats are becoming scarcer and scarcer.

Heyward is the best player in the deal and I think the fact that St. Louis was shopping Shelby Miller last off-season and had no problems unloading him this off-season is a scary thing to realize. There's obviously something they don't like about him. Whether it's his medicals, his projections, his attitude, the fact that he's a man named Shelby, I have no idea. From Atlanta's POV, I mean, I get that Heyward is a FA-to-be and they basically had to choose between Heyward and Upton (the good one), but I think they could have leveraged more from Heyward. I'm not sold on Shelby Miller being all that great for them AT ALL.

The only good thing coming out of this trade, with respect to the Braves that people can enjoy, is that we get a world where Evan Gattis is an everyday LF'er. It'll be just like Travis Ishikawa in the World Series!

[JayJaxon]

I completely understand what you guys mean about the expected offensive production from a right fielder verses that of a center fielder and that is why the value of Jason Heyward is diminished a bit because he doesn't live up to that criteria. But he could play center field for most teams and I don't see why he can't be used there more.

Heyward was my favorite player on the Braves. My dad told me today that it reminds him of when Dale Murphy was traded 25 years ago. Because of the popularity of Heyward, it's a tough pill to swallow. I was stunned.

[HedleyLamarr]

This move is mainly a financial one. The Braves already got a hometown discount once with Heyward when he signed that 2-year (I think?) deal. They weren't going to get a hometown discount again. It was either offer a ton of money now and risk getting little in return, or trade him now.

That said, his offensive production left more to be desired. He also seems to get injured pretty often. Streaky on offense but plays really good defense....sounds a lot like Jeff Francoeur.

Maybe Heyward was the victim of constantly being shuffled around in the lineup....seems like he batted in every spot but 9th this year. But it also felt like that his hitting hasn't gotten better, no matter where he was hitting....and if that OPS is valid, that is concerning.

[JasonFromMiami]

Fight the future ! Marlins 2015 World Champions !

[(probably)notabandwagonfan]

This move is mainly a financial one. The Braves already got a hometown discount once with Heyward when he signed that 2-year (I think?) deal. They weren't going to get a hometown discount again. It was either offer a ton of money now and risk getting little in return, or trade him now.

That said, his offensive production left more to be desired. He also seems to get injured pretty often. Streaky on offense but plays really good defense....sounds a lot like Jeff Francoeur.

Maybe Heyward was the victim of constantly being shuffled around in the lineup....seems like he batted in every spot but 9th this year. But it also felt like that his hitting hasn't gotten better, no matter where he was hitting....and if that OPS is valid, that is concerning.

Heyward is not as much Francoeur as you think. Francoeur couldn't take a walk to save his life and literally swung at everything, Heyward was one of the more disciplined hitters on the Braved this year (although that's not saying a lot). Francoeur also had no range, just an absolute cannon. Heyward is a freak of nature.

[BBTV]

There's something odd when one team that thinks it can contend trades a well-thought-of player to another team who not only is also a contender, but one of the teams that is clearly standing in their way. The braves might know something here - otherwise it doesn't make any sense to help your direct competition

[NJTank]

what the hell ? Jose Canseco loses his finger playing poker.

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Jose Canseco ✔ @JoseCanseco

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My finger should have been amputated from the beginning. It was very loose with no bone to connect it.it was also smelling really bad.

12:51 AM - 15 Nov 2014 Las Vegas, NV, United States

I guess he should not have asked someone to pull his finger

[JayMac]

what the hell ? Jose Canseco loses his finger playing poker.

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Jose Canseco ✔ @JoseCanseco

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My finger should have been amputated from the beginning. It was very loose with no bone to connect it.it was also smelling really bad.

12:51 AM - 15 Nov 2014 Las Vegas, NV, United States

I guess he should not have asked someone to pull his finger

He was dealt a bad hand...I'll see myself out.

[Lights Out]

While I personally think Jayson Heyward is massively overrated, he's still the best player in that deal and Shelby Miller comes with more red flags than my personality does.

As for Russell Martin - the Jays just gave a non-elite catcher a five-year contract that will take him through his age 32-36 seasons. Good luck with that one.

The Martin contract is not as bad as it looks on paper. He's an elite defensive catcher and a very good pitch framer. He adds wins even without being a dependably solid hitter. Also, considering how much Rogers spent on NHL rights, they can apparently afford to overpay a bit.

[STL FANATIC]

There's something odd when one team that thinks it can contend trades a well-thought-of player to another team who not only is also a contender, but one of the teams that is clearly standing in their way. The braves might know something here - otherwise it doesn't make any sense to help your direct competition

I don't know how much the Braves truly expect to contend next year (though they won't be bad, and we know that sometimes not being bad is continuing in baseball). But more than that, I think this logic mostly applies to the division. But when it comes to teams just in your league, you take your shot at beating them in a post-season series if you get there.

[NJTank]

The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons since Russel Martin left, and the Pirates have made the playoffs the two seasons he was in Pittsburgh there is something to chew upon.

[Brass]

The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons since Russel Martin left, and the Pirates have made the playoffs the two seasons he was in Pittsburgh there is something to chew upon.

That is a ridiculous statement. If there is any sport where one player doesn't make a difference, it's baseball. If you disagree, ask the 2001-2003 Texas Rangers how that works.

On an unrelated note, Peter Gammons is reporting that the Chicago Cubs think Jon Lester will resign with the Red Sox. As much as I love Lestah and want to see him back in a Red Sox uniform, I don't see it happening. I'm smart enough as a Red Sox fan to realize that he'll probably sign with the New York Yankees before ever returning to pitch for the Sox.

[Tigers6884]

The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons since Russel Martin left, and the Pirates have made the playoffs the two seasons he was in Pittsburgh there is something to chew upon.

That is a ridiculous statement. If there is any sport where one player doesn't make a difference, it's baseball. If you disagree, ask the 2001-2003 Texas Rangers how that works.

On an unrelated note, Peter Gammons is reporting that the Chicago Cubs think Jon Lester will resign with the Red Sox. As much as I love Lestah and want to see him back in a Red Sox uniform, I don't see it happening. I'm smart enough as a Red Sox fan to realize that he'll probably sign with the New York Yankees before ever returning to pitch for the Sox.

I'm confused. Why did they trade him if they thought he would resign with them this offseason?

[NJTank]

You know sometimes a catcher can be very underrated he can frame pitches and steal strikes settle down young pitchers and be a stablizing factor on the infield. I would never call Russell Martin an improtant player but that must make you wonder. If the Pirates go in the tank and the Jays are playing in October dont overlook Mr. Martain.

The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons since Russel Martin left, and the Pirates have made the playoffs the two seasons he was in Pittsburgh there is something to chew upon.

That is a ridiculous statement. If there is any sport where one player doesn't make a difference, it's baseball. If you disagree, ask the 2001-2003 Texas Rangers how that works.

On an unrelated note, Peter Gammons is reporting that the Chicago Cubs think Jon Lester will resign with the Red Sox. As much as I love Lestah and want to see him back in a Red Sox uniform, I don't see it happening. I'm smart enough as a Red Sox fan to realize that he'll probably sign with the New York Yankees before ever returning to pitch for the Sox.

I'm confused. Why did they trade him if they thought he would resign with them this offseason?

Because they had a sucker give them Yoenis Cespedes because he thinks getting on base is more important than RBIs

[OnWis97]

The Yankees have missed the playoffs the last two seasons since Russel Martin left, and the Pirates have made the playoffs the two seasons he was in Pittsburgh there is something to chew upon.

That is a ridiculous statement. If there is any sport where one player doesn't make a difference, it's baseball. If you disagree, ask the 2001-2003 Texas Rangers how that works.

On an unrelated note, Peter Gammons is reporting that the Chicago Cubs think Jon Lester will resign with the Red Sox. As much as I love Lestah and want to see him back in a Red Sox uniform, I don't see it happening. I'm smart enough as a Red Sox fan to realize that he'll probably sign with the New York Yankees before ever returning to pitch for the Sox.

I'm confused. Why did they trade him if they thought he would resign with them this offseason?

To have him and Cespedes.