Who will be No. 1: The 2015 NFL Draft Thread

[tBBP]

Tampa also needs to sell tickets, and generate/keep/regain fan interest...don't ever discount just how much weight that carries when mulling potential draftees. Winston being an in-state product would certainly help that ambition, so all else being equal that is the main reason why I believe Tampa is taking him #1.

And, if the Buccaneers were smart (which I lost faith in that out of them years ago), they'd comb through the league to find a viable veteran backup, preferably one who's had considerable starting experience--provided there's anyone left (I think Matt Hasselbeck might well be the last one of that old guard).

[DG_ThenNowForever]

Tampa also needs to sell tickets, and generate/keep/regain fan interest...don't ever discount just how much weight that carries when mulling potential draftees. Winston being an in-state product would certainly help that ambition, so all else being equal that is the main reason why I believe Tampa is taking him #1.

And, if the Buccaneers were smart (which I lost faith in that out of them years ago), they'd comb through the league to find a viable veteran backup, preferably one who's had considerable starting experience--provided there's anyone left (I think Matt Hasselbeck might well be the last one of that old guard).

I'd rather have a good quarterback sell tickets for ten years than a bad quarterback sell tickets for one. Drafting local guys instead of better guys seems like a really good way to stay a bad team.

If Matt Hasselbeck is anywhere close to playing shape, he might want to consider a career with the Buffalo Bills.

[BBTV]

Tampa also needs to sell tickets, and generate/keep/regain fan interest...don't ever discount just how much weight that carries when mulling potential draftees. Winston being an in-state product would certainly help that ambition, so all else being equal that is the main reason why I believe Tampa is taking him #1.

And, if the Buccaneers were smart (which I lost faith in that out of them years ago), they'd comb through the league to find a viable veteran backup, preferably one who's had considerable starting experience--provided there's anyone left (I think Matt Hasselbeck might well be the last one of that old guard).

Well they passed on Tim Tebow when he was available and relavent. He certainly would have sold tickets.

Mark Sanchez is the veteran you're looking for. I think his dreams of being a full-time starter fizzled out along with the Eagles season, so he'd probably sign for a year or two to start and then hand over the reigns.

[tBBP]

I can't picture that happening in Tampa--then again this is Lovie Smith we're talking about here, so who knows? (You know, the guy who staunchly stood with "Rex as our quarterback".)

I think the problem these days, aside from general impatience on the part of team brass, is too many of these new draftees are being pushed out there right away, with no real chance to sit and study, learn and/or develop--everybody can't be a viable starter right out the gate like an Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson or Peyton Manning. Luck has the benefit of having Hasselbeck mentor/tutor him now, but besides that I think the last current starter who actually had the benefit of sitting for a while behind a bona fide starter was Aaron Rodgers back when The Favreness still ruled Green Bay. Maybe Phillip Rivers too when Drew Brees was still in Dan Diego--but then Brees himself was still rather young.

It just don't seem to be no Steve Bono/Elvis Grbac/Wade Wilson/Dave Brown/Stoney Case/Steve Beuerlein/Chris Chandler/Vinny Testaverde type guys around no more, and I think it's really starting to show itself now. (And yes, I know I'm dating myself here but...bump that.)

[DG_ThenNowForever]

I can't picture that happening in Tampa--then again this is Lovie Smith we're talking about here, so who knows? (You know, the guy who staunchly stood with "Rex as our quarterback".)

I think the problem these days, aside from general impatience on the part of team brass, is too many of these new draftees are being pushed out there right away, with no real chance to sit and study, learn and/or develop--everybody can't be a viable starter right out the gate like an Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson or Peyton Manning. Luck has the benefit of having Hasselbeck mentor/tutor him now, but besides that I think the last current starter who actually had the benefit of sitting for a while behind a bona fide starter was Aaron Rodgers back when The Favreness still ruled Green Bay. Maybe Phillip Rivers too when Drew Brees was still in Dan Diego--but then Brees himself was still rather young.

It just don't seem to be no Steve Bono/Elvis Grbac/Wade Wilson/Dave Brown/Stoney Case/Steve Beuerlein/Chris Chandler/Vinny Testaverde type guys around no more, and I think it's really starting to show itself now. (And yes, I know I'm dating myself here but...bump that.)

That's a really good point. There used to be a handful of serviceable backups floating around the NFL that could catch a hot streak one season and carry a team to a Super Bowl (or at least play adequately all season long). Now there's like eight good quarterbacks and that's it. If you don't get one of them, and ride him for a decade or so, your franchise is generally hopeless.

[HedleyLamarr]

Probably a money/cap issue. You got so much money tied into your #1 QB that you don't want a second QB making a bigger check than a position where the guy is gonna be playing.

They're getting phased out in favor of good-but-not-great college QB's that are undrafted or taken late.

[GriffinM6]

Taylor Heinicke. That is all.

[BBTV]

Where have all the Mike Tomczak's gone? Babe Laufenburg?

[Cosmic]

There's not enough good QBs to start in this league, and you guys are talking about backups? Backups?!?

[OnWis97]

So did Mariota's stock drop in the Championship Game?

He was not terrible but he never really "made a play" when it was needed.

[Kramerica Industries]

Honestly? Back in 2013, if most people were given the choice of Mariota or Winston, most people would've said Winston without taking a breath. Why did this change in 2014? Mostly, because of all the off-field transgressions that Winston had. The talent levels and capabilities (perceived or real) of both players never changed. I think that only now, with the focus going back to the tape and the on-field performance and evaluating both players through the lens of how they project to the NFL level based on what we've seen them do, are we starting to shift back to the Winston > Mariota view of things. I wouldn't really blame it on a declining stock in Mariota, but a properly re-evaluated and risen stock for Winston.

[tBBP]

^ I'd say if anything it may have made those "system QB" whispers a bit louder (that was probably the only presumed knock on him going into that game). How much further Mariota's stock drops remains to be seen--but at any rate it probably just raised Winston's that much more.

Whatever the case, I personally see no possible future in which one doesn't end end up in Tampa and the other in Nashville. That said, Tennessee has a QB problem of its own, considering they already have Jake Locker, the rookie Mettenberger (sp?), and career backup Charlie Whitehurst (who's nowhere near any of those serviceable backups I mentioned earlier), and I think someone else too. Of course this team also has Ken Whisenhunt as its head coach, and I'm sure he's probably salivating at the prospect of what he could do with whichever guy Tampa doesn't take. Of course the smart thing for that team to do would be to try to trade down, wheel and deal, and garner up as many draft picks as they can because they have holes all over the place. BUT...just like Tampa, this team also needs to sell tickets/get butts in seats at LP, and one of those two guys would most likely help with that. (The Titans still have their fans around this town, but the overall level of interest right now seems apathetic at best.)

But...then it circles right back around to the same thing I mentioned earlier: if these guys get pressed into starting right out the gate, will they have viable serviceable mentors backing them up/showing them the ropes--or a half-decent offensive line to protect them (& some semblance of a running game to take some pressure off them)? Doesn't really look like it in either place.

[Kramerica Industries]

It may have made some of those "system QB" whispers louder, I won't disagree, but as I said...somewhere else here...just because he's played in a given system and played very well within it doesn't mean that he can't play and adapt to any other system he's placed in. Furthermore, we're talking about a prospective top-5/top-10 selection at quarterback; that's the kind of player who you adapt your system towards; Jacksonville's OC (name escapes me) wasn't on the same page with what would best benefit Blake Bortles and out went the OC.

I dunno, I've just never seen so much snark about "lol wide open receiver" than when logging into Twitter during an Oregon game. Perhaps it makes it hard to evaluate Mariota from an NFL perspective, I don't disagree, but Mariota still has to make those reads and throws for it all to matter. There's a reason why Mariota was able to take Oregon a step higher than they achieved with Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli, and Darron Thomas.

[pianoknight]

There's a reason why Mariota was able to take Oregon a step higher than they achieved with Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli, and Darron Thomas.

I'll disagree on this, actually. The 2010 Ducks played Auburn much more closely, losing the title by a field goal instead of a 22 point romp. Ohio State could easily have had 14-21 more points on the board as well, were it not got silly turnovers.

You can argue Mariota achieved higher personal success as a Heisman winner, but LaMichael James finished 3rd in the Heisman ballot for 2010.

Factor in the revolving door of quarterbacks that year - Masoli suspension, Costa injury, Thomas playing title game - and I'll say that the 2010 team was deeper and had more drive to win. In hindsight, the 2014 Ducks have looked like the Marcus Show, and Urban Meyer proved that when the Hawaiian Heisman is contained bad things happen for the Ducks.

[Xist2inspire]

I think Mariota's stock did drop a bit after last night. The thing about Winston is that he's a plug-in-and-play QB prospect. Think Andrew Luck. There's really no need to massively overhaul your playbook or design an entirely new offensive scheme to play to his strengths. Mariota, while extremely talented, is a guy you have to overhaul a lot of things for. Think RG3. He's a guy who (while he shows impressive passing ability) is best on the move, and thrives in an offensive scheme that gives him multiple options and keeps defenses off-balance at all times. But as last night showed, if the defense isn't off balance, the whole thing falls apart.

Mariota may still be the better prospect, but now he's shown examples of why he's also a high-risk prospect. NFL teams are going to look at the Ohio State game and think, "Ohio State's defensive style lines up pretty well with the pro style, and Mariota couldn't beat that." Then they're going to go back to the FSU game and think, "Hmmm, it was really the turnovers that blew the game open." Then they'll sit down and ask themselves if Mariota did anything to separate himself from the Kapernicks, the Newtons, the RG3s, those guys who have proven that they need highly specialized and well-coached offenses to succeed at the NFL level.* And the answer will be, "I dunno." That's a question mark. Meanwhile, Winston doesn't have those obvious question marks, the warning signs for him are all off the field.

*"Hey, what about Russell Wilson?" Well, Russell stepped into the best possible position: drafted low, so low expectations; has a fresh coach willing to experiment and build around his strengths; has a still-formidable RB; has a top-level defense that has given him time to grow under very little pressure, he doesn't have to put up huge numbers for the Seahawks to win. If you put him on say, Jacksonville, I don't think he develops the same way. A team looking to draft Mariota will pprobably have more in common with Jacksonvile than Seattle.

[dfwabel]

Where have all the Mike Tomczak's gone? Babe Laufenburg?

He just lost his day job.

[DS729]

There's a reason why Mariota was able to take Oregon a step higher than they achieved with Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli, and Darron Thomas.

I'll disagree on this, actually. The 2010 Ducks played Auburn much more closely, losing the title by a field goal instead of a 22 point romp. Ohio State could easily have had 14-21 more points on the board as well, were it not got silly turnovers.

You can argue Mariota achieved higher personal success as a Heisman winner, but LaMichael James finished 3rd in the Heisman ballot for 2010.

Factor in the revolving door of quarterbacks that year - Masoli suspension, Costa injury, Thomas playing title game - and I'll say that the 2010 team was deeper and had more drive to win. In hindsight, the 2014 Ducks have looked like the Marcus Show, and Urban Meyer proved that when the Hawaiian Heisman is contained bad things happen for the Ducks.

I'll take the former because 2010 was a better team than 2014's. Mariota is by far the best passer out of the Oregon quarterbacks mentioned above.

[BigEd76]

#29 = Indianapolis

#30 = Green Bay

[TheRicSlick]

With the draft only ten days away, it's time to fire this thread back up.

The Bucs I'm almost certain are going to take Jameis Winston No.1 and will not trade down. That is unless a team offers something similar to what Washington did to the Rams a few years ago.

[Tigers6884]

So how long will it be until Jameis Winston becomes JaMarcus Russell 2.0?