2014 NCAA Football Thread

[crashcarson15]

Going into mid-November we could have as many as seven teams warranting playoff consideration, needing at least four of them to occur to avoid a two-loss team.

• Mississippi State
• Florida State
• Oregon or Arizona State
• Alabama
• TCU
• Baylor
• Ohio State or Nebraska

I guess you really can't rule out Duke yet? But there's really no way them and Florida State can coexist, so there's that.

Should be a fun last few weeks of the season.

[DaRadniz29]

Assuming Oregon holds:

1. Mississippi State

2. Florida State

3. Oregon

4. Alabama

5. TCU

6. Arizona State

7. Baylor

8. Ohio State

9. Ole Miss

And... dear God... does Nebraska move up to 10? I guess they have to. Unless you keep Auburn in the Top 10, but this isn't the same as Ole Miss losing on the last play of the game going into the endzone against the #3 team.

Here's my initial top 25 after Saturday's results:

1. Mississippi State (9-0)

Steady rout vs UT Martin keeps the Bulldogs atop the rankings.

2. Florida State (9-0)

down early and Uncomfortably close late, but Garnett and Gold gets it done.

3. Oregon (9-1)

Utah kept it close and pulled with in 3, before Oregon put the game away late.

4. Alabama (8-1)

An OT win in Baton Rouge propels the Tide back into the Playoff picture.

5. TCU (8-1)

6. Arizona St. (8-1)

7. Baylor (8-1)

8. Ole Miss (8-2)

9. Ohio State (8-1)

10. Nebraska (8-1)

11. Auburn (7-2)

12. Michigan State (7-2)

13. Georgia (7-2)

14. Kansas State (7-2)

15. UCLA (8-2)

16. Arizona (7-2)

17. Notre Dame (7-2)

18. Duke (8-1)

19. Clemson (7-2)

20. GA Tech (8-2)

21. LSU (7-3)

22. Wisconsin (7-2)

23. Oklahoma (6-3)

24. Missouri (7-2)

25. Utah (6-3)

Knocked out of Rankings: West Virginia

I moved Ole Miss up 3 spots even though they were idle, because while they are 8-2, #7 K-St. lost, #8 Michigan St. lost and #10 Notre Dame lost and #9 Arizona State won. Besides, there's always going to be that "possibility of 2-loss SEC Champion potentially getting into the playoff" controversy. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Auburn only drops 3-4 spots to stay in the top 8 either.

Nebraska and Clemson jumping three spots while idle might be generous but because teams in front of them losing, they benefit. Georgia jumping seven is, maybe a stretch after their annual derp game, but a 32-point road win in the SEC is a pretty good rebound.

Herbstreit has 1. Mississippi State, 2. Florida State, 3. Alabama, 4. TCU. While this is possible, would the committee really knock Oregon out of the top after a 24-point road win? Yeah it was close in the 4th quarter, but they pulled away late. Why would TCU do a horned frog-leap (pun intended) over Oregon? Because they pulled away earlier in the second half? Not saying he's "wrong" but I just don't see the committee telling Oregon:

"Sorry, but your 24-point win kicked you out of the top 4."

Don't look now, but here comes the discussion of the top 3 seeds in the ranking get a bye, while the 4 and 5 ranked teams duke it out in the Wildcard Bowl in Dallas. Then again, if that were in place this year, right now it would probably be TCU vs Oregon - Hello offense.

[rams80]

Guys, TCU's probably should be #4 and is probably going to the playoffs. Their final 3 opponents are Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas. They're basically done with the Big XII gauntlet.

[DaRadniz29]

Ugh, stupid finger pressing enter button. Redo...

[DaRadniz29]

Guys, TCU's probably should be #4 and is probably going to the playoffs. Their final 3 opponents are Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas. They're basically done with the Big XII gauntlet.

Possibly. The scariest team on their three remaining games is Texas. the SEC will knock each other around in the Egg Bowl, Iron Bowl and SEC Championship. Florida State and Duke look to hold serve and play in the ACC Championship. Though Miami is hot right now, so the Seminoles need to be ready. Oregon has the Civil War with Oregon State.

If someone asked me to make my predictions on who the four playoff teams would be at the end of the season, I couldn't tell you for certain. However, I did do a rundown of the top team's remaining schedules tried to predict the results. Some of these may seem crazy and that's fine. Here we go:

SEC Grindhouse: The SEC Teams beat each other up.

• Alabama, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State end up in three way tie for SEC WEST.
• Alabama wins out, but is kept out of the SEC Championship game.
• Mississippi State loses both it's road games and drops to 10-2.
• Ole Miss somehow wins out, and becomes the SEC West Representative in the SEC Championship game.
• Georgia represents the SEC East, after Mizzou fails to win two SEC Road games.

ACC Perennial Power vs Upstart

• Duke faces off against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.

PAC 12 Rematch

• UCLA somehow gets themselves to Santa Clara to face the Pac 12 North Oregon Ducks in the PAC 12 Championship.

This or That Big Ten

• Ohio State wins out and represents the Big Ten East.
• Wisconsin does the same and gets some help, they represent the Big Ten West.

Championship Results

• ACC Champs, Florida State (13-0) defeats Duke
• Pac 12 Champs, Oregon (12-1) defeats UCLA.
• SEC Champs, Ole Miss (10-2) defeats Georgia.
• Big Ten Champs, Ohio State (10-2) defeats Wisconsin.

Other Teams:

• Big 12 Champs, TCU (11-1)
• Baylor (10-2)
• Arizona State (10-2)

CFB Predictions based on the above results:

1. Florida State (13-0)

2. Oregon (12-1)

3. TCU (11-1)

4. Ole Miss (10-2).

Ohio State, Baylor and Arizona State left out. In this event do you take a 10-2 Ohio State over 10-2 Ole Miss or either one of those over a 11-1 TCU? I just don't see Ohio State getting in with two losses. People will say SEC 2-loss team shouldn't get in, but somehow they find a way.

Florida State vs Ole Miss

Will be a good test for the Ole Miss defense. Though Florida State caps it off on a Ole Miss fumble.

Oregon vs TCU

Would be a good matchup regardless of the implications, but for a spot in the Championship game, ooh. I'm giving the Edge to TCU.

Sets up a Florida State vs TCU championship game. Okay, so maybe not so crazy.

Lots of football left though.

[LAWeaver]

What a day yesterday in college football. My current top 4 would have to be:

1. Mississippi State

2. Florida State

3. Oregon

4. TCU

5. Baylor

6. Alabama

7. Arizona State

8. Ole Miss

IMO, four teams just isn't enough. Maybe down the road they'll be, but I think 8 teams is the best way to go. Have the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange bowls rotate for the first round, then have the final four play at the site of the title game, similar to College Basketball's Final Four.

[4_tattoos]

I must have missed the announcement that the Niners' new stadium will host the PAC-12 title game. Not a fan. Really liked that one of the power conferences held it's CCG at the home field of one of the participants. Sorta had a (real) playoff game vibe to it.

[DCarp1231]

In my mind the top 4 should be:

1. Unnamed SEC team

2. Unnamed PAC 12 team

3. Unnamed ACC team

4. Unnamed Big 12 team

Take some guesses as to who they might be

[tyst13]

...

This or That Big Ten

• Ohio State wins out and represents the Big Ten East.
• Wisconsin does the same and gets some help, they represent the Big Ten West.

Championship Results

• Big Ten Champs, Ohio State (10-2) defeats Wisconsin.

...

Ohio State, Baylor and Arizona State left out. In this event do you take a 10-2 Ohio State over 10-2 Ole Miss or either one of those over a 11-1 TCU? I just don't see Ohio State getting in with two losses. People will say SEC 2-loss team shouldn't get in, but somehow they find a way.

Well, to correct you, Ohio State only has 1 loss (to an unranked Virginia Tech at home, so... yeah), and they would be 12-1 if they won out and won the Big Ten championship game. I still don't think they'd get in over a 1-loss Pac-12 champ, ACC champ, Big 12 champ, or even a 2-loss SEC champ (depending on the scenario).

[Billy B]

I'm still confused as to why TCU is ahead of Baylor in the rankings.

[rams80]

1. Baylor has a worse loss.

2. Baylor (STILL) has a weaker schedule

3. Regarding point 1-3 point road loss to your biggest rival is the functional equivalent of playing to a tie.

[Billy B]

1. Baylor has a worse loss.

2. Baylor (STILL) has a weaker schedule

3. Regarding point 1-3 point road loss to your biggest rival is the functional equivalent of playing to a tie.

It seems like the committee is putting more into wins than losses so far. What happens if Baylor and TCU both win out? The only game that should be a problem for either team is Baylor's finale at home against K-State. I don't see how you can give TCU the nod over Baylor if they aren't the conference champ in a round robin.

[rams80]

1. Baylor has a worse loss.

2. Baylor (STILL) has a weaker schedule

3. Regarding point 1-3 point road loss to your biggest rival is the functional equivalent of playing to a tie.

It seems like the committee is putting more into wins than losses so far. What happens if Baylor and TCU both win out? The only game that should be a problem for either team is Baylor's finale at home against K-State. I don't see how you can give TCU the nod over Baylor if they aren't the conference champ in a round robin.

Because TCU looks better quite frankly. And they can play the schedule card and the better loss card.

Honestly I'm uncomfortable with keeping one or the other out based solely on a football game that had a 61-58 final score at the end of regulation. All that tells me is Baylor was ahead when the clock hit zero, not that one team in convincingly better than the other.

[PSUcelticsWON95]

I really wish the Playoff was 8 teams. My top 4 would be:
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama

5. TCU
6. Baylor

[DaRadniz29]

I must have missed the announcement that the Niners' new stadium will host the PAC-12 title game. Not a fan. Really liked that one of the power conferences held it's CCG at the home field of one of the participants. Sorta had a (real) playoff game vibe to it.

Yeah I don't know if it's just this season or if there was a new deal in place, but I did kind of like the team with the better record hosting.

...

This or That Big Ten

• Ohio State wins out and represents the Big Ten East.
• Wisconsin does the same and gets some help, they represent the Big Ten West.

Championship Results

• Big Ten Champs, Ohio State (10-2) defeats Wisconsin.

...

Ohio State, Baylor and Arizona State left out. In this event do you take a 10-2 Ohio State over 10-2 Ole Miss or either one of those over a 11-1 TCU? I just don't see Ohio State getting in with two losses. People will say SEC 2-loss team shouldn't get in, but somehow they find a way.

Well, to correct you, Ohio State only has 1 loss (to an unranked Virginia Tech at home, so... yeah), and they would be 12-1 if they won out and won the Big Ten championship game. I still don't think they'd get in over a 1-loss Pac-12 champ, ACC champ, Big 12 champ, or even a 2-loss SEC champ (depending on the scenario).

Yeah that shouldn't have read "wins out" I think one of the three Big Ten teams they play to finish the season will get them. Minnesota probably has the best chance. That would put the Buckeyes at 10-2 overall and 7-1 in Conference. Yeah a 2-loss SEC Champ would probably get the 4-seed if it was between them and a 2-loss Big Ten Champion.

Also just readng the Charlotte Observer article should Duke and Florida State make it to the ACC Championship, and Duke somehow beats the Seminoles, how far does a 12-1 ACC Champion Duke look to the committee? I think on top winning out, Duke would still need help to make it to the top 4.

[JayMac]

I must have missed the announcement that the Niners' new stadium will host the PAC-12 title game. Not a fan. Really liked that one of the power conferences held it's CCG at the home field of one of the participants. Sorta had a (real) playoff game vibe to it.

Yeah I don't know if it's just this season or if there was a new deal in place, but I did kind of like the team with the better record hosting.

...

This or That Big Ten

• Ohio State wins out and represents the Big Ten East.
• Wisconsin does the same and gets some help, they represent the Big Ten West.

Championship Results

• Big Ten Champs, Ohio State (10-2) defeats Wisconsin.

...

Ohio State, Baylor and Arizona State left out. In this event do you take a 10-2 Ohio State over 10-2 Ole Miss or either one of those over a 11-1 TCU? I just don't see Ohio State getting in with two losses. People will say SEC 2-loss team shouldn't get in, but somehow they find a way.

Well, to correct you, Ohio State only has 1 loss (to an unranked Virginia Tech at home, so... yeah), and they would be 12-1 if they won out and won the Big Ten championship game. I still don't think they'd get in over a 1-loss Pac-12 champ, ACC champ, Big 12 champ, or even a 2-loss SEC champ (depending on the scenario).

Yeah that shouldn't have read "wins out" I think one of the three Big Ten teams they play to finish the season will get them. Minnesota probably has the best chance. That would put the Buckeyes at 10-2 overall and 7-1 in Conference. Yeah a 2-loss SEC Champ would probably get the 4-seed if it was between them and a 2-loss Big Ten Champion.

Also just readng the Charlotte Observer article should Duke and Florida State make it to the ACC Championship, and Duke somehow beats the Seminoles, how far does a 12-1 ACC Champion Duke look to the committee? I think on top winning out, Duke would still need help to make it to the top 4.

There will be no scenario in which Duke gets a playoff bid.

[pianoknight]

If FSU stumbles, the ACC is toast regarding playoff berths. I think Oregon wins out and no matter which SEC team gets in, I'm sure we'll hear plenty of rhetoric about how they were really a playoff team all along even though they're all 10-2. Here's hoping Mizzou wins the East and the conference.

[4_tattoos]

Wow, Duke has quietly gone 8-1.

[TheRicSlick]

Wow, Duke has quietly gone 8-1.

Well they do have quiet an easy schedule, they lost to Miami, and their only quality win was against Georgia Tech.

[OnWis97]

Guys, TCU's probably should be #4 and is probably going to the playoffs. Their final 3 opponents are Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas. They're basically done with the Big XII gauntlet.

This or That Big Ten

• Ohio State wins out and represents the Big Ten East.
• Wisconsin does the same and gets some help, they represent the Big Ten West.

Actually, Wisconsin would need no help if they win out. This is also true of Minnesota and Nebraska. None of these three teams have played each other yet.

The smart money's on Nebraska. Gary Anderson has never beaten a ranked team and he's not about to start vs. Nebraska. Minnesota may be the best of the West (which says a lot about the Big Ten and the Big Ten West) but they drew OSU (next week) so they'll need to beat Nebraska and Wisconsin for sure.