Let The Hot Stove Heat Up: 2015-2016 MLB Offseason

[2001mark]

Do you really think were happy with just one year of playoffs? This is Toronto, dude.

Toronto suggests that people are happy with zero years of playoffs.

[FGM13]

Jays bring back Happ?

Uh... Okay. Look I get that he was really good down the stretch for the Pirates last year but J.A. Happ is not a very good pitcher. He's a back of the rotation filler guy on the wrong side of 30, he does not deserve 3 years and 36mil, especially not when the team is expected to go out and get another front of the rotation guy. Dumb.

Currently the rotation looks like this:

Stroman

Estrada

Dickey

Happ

Hutchison/Sanchez/Chavez

They're banking on Estrada and Happ following up on career years, Dickey and Chavez being somewhat consistent, and Hutchison and/or Sanchez being good enough to start. There is only one rotation spot not filled with a question mark and even then I see Marcus Stroman as a #2 guy for now, not a staff ace. I get the feeling this season is going to blow up in the Jays' faces if they don't acquire another pitcher, preferably one who can be slotted at the front of the rotation with Stroman.

Please don't be dumb, Shapiro.

[DEAD!]

I think Happ is basically filling the void left by Buehrle. Besides, as of now, I doubt the rotation is set in stone. Heck, the 2015 rotation did not even settle itself until September.

[2001mark]

Please don't be dumb, Shapiro.

He thinks being Gord Ash & giving us real grass in 2017 will make a lot of money.

He's wrong.

[Packid]

According to Jon Morosi, the Tigers are in serious discussions with Jordan Zimmermann.

[DCarp1231]

Apparently if the Orioles decide to re-sign Chris Davis they can't sign a tier 2 or even 3 starting pitcher. Oh boy.

[FiddySicks]

Tigers nab Jordan Zimmerman for five years, $110 million.

I admittedly don't know much about the Tigers financial situation or what exactly they're trying to do, but this move seems kinda strange to me. Why not just hang on to Price or even make a bigger push for Scherzer if you're gonna bring in Zimmerman (who's pretty far behind either of those guys, IMO) for $22 million a season?

[Crabcake]

Tigers nab Jordan Zimmerman for five years, $110 million.

I admittedly don't know much about the Tigers financial situation or what exactly they're trying to do, but this move seems kinda strange to me. Why not just hang on to Price or even make a bigger push for Scherzer if you're gonna bring in Zimmerman (who's pretty far behind either of those guys, IMO) for $22 million a season?

This.

This is why the Tigers will not win a World Series for a long time.

[FiddySicks]

I mean, I understand wanting to pick up a guy like Zimmerman. He's been fantastically consistent over his career and has a pretty solid growth potential still. And while $22 million a season initially feels really high, it may end up being a bit of a steal in comparison to what some of these guys are gonna get. He would've been a terrific fit with just about half the league if not more.

But why would Detroit throw that kind of money at a guy approaching 30 who just came off of his worst statistical season yet? They've got a TON of problems in the rotation and the bullpen and this feels like it may limit what they can do to shore up their other issues. I dunno, maybe contracts have become inflated enough that giving nearly $25 million to a guy who trends closer to a #3 than a #1 is the new normal, but I'm not so sure about that just yet.

Also, it seems strange for Zimmerman to move this quickly, too. I feel like if he would've waited for one of the bigger names to drop first, they would've set the market a bit higher and he could've waited out a desperate team (such as the Giants) and gotten more.

I'm not saying it's a terrible signing, and I'd even say it's a good one. But it's still a bit head scratching. When I was looking at all the teams that were interested in him, Detroit was WAY further down the list than a bunch of other teams in terms of fit and need.

[AnPheitseog]

I was thinking about the Orioles' off-season over the weekend. The O's have several holes and they don't have the resources to fill them all with top free agents or trade targets. However, I came up with 4 things I think they can do to fill all/most of their holes and not spend a ridiculous amount on them. They are listed in order of priority (e.g. 1 is highest priority, etc.).

Step 1: Sign/trade for an outfielder, preferably one that can hit

This could include guys like Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, or even Ben Zobrist if the opportunity presents itself. LF in particular is a massive hole going in to the season, and the O's also need offense. This would kill two birds with one stone. Even Zobrist, who is known more for defense, could hit at or near the top of our lineup.

Step 2: Sign a cheap, top-3 starter

The starters everyone wants to talk about on the market (e.g. Price, Grienke, Cueto, etc.) are all waaaaay out of our price range. But, with the departure of Wei-Yin Chen looming, we still need a starter. To me, there is no pitcher who better fits this bill than Yovani Gallardo. In a market flush with aces, Gallardo might be able to come on the cheap, and he would pair nicely with Chris Tillman at the top of the rotation. other targets could include guys like J.A. Happ or Mike Leake.

Step 3: Re-sign Gerardo Parra

RF was another major hole for the O's last season before the acquisition of Parra. Even though his defense wasn't spectacular, his offensive production at the top of the lineup made up for it. In my opinion, he is the most important player for the O's to resign this offseason, save maybe Darren O'Day (no pun intended)

Step 4: Re-sign Steve Pearce

Insurance for Chris Walker at 1B, and provides offense and defensive flexibility.

It might only be necessary to hold out at 1B for half the season, depending on how Mancini does this year and if the O's can rush him to the majors.

If not, I honestly would feel more comfortable with Weiters and (im hesitating to say this a bit) Joseph platooning 1B/C.

I also think that Pedro Alvarez could be had for the cheap, considering all he is good for now is a full time DH(which i depsise the thought of, but putting that aside). Cant field, but I honestly think he can do his power numbers at OPaCY and not worrying about fielding.

I wouldnt mind David Lough in the OF as a starter, but I know his power is severly lacking and hitting in general, but has the defense.

Ill contradict myself about Pearce, because of his outfield skills which will be sorely needed for 2016

[ninersdd]

David Price to the Red Sox. 7 years 217 million.

[pmoehrin]

Not sure how well this will be received, but in the dropbox link below is a part of what I do in terms of research outside of this board.

This file is modified version of what you would see on baseball-reference.com, with my own personal ratings for offense, defense and overall ability. The reason I included them was more to give people an idea of just how good past players were to present day players. I think just starring at an almanac from 1933 doesn't really do much good if you don't already know what to look for. But when you see Bill Dickey with a 66 rating that year and scroll over to 2014 and you see Yan Gomes with the same 66 rating and they're both catchers, it means probably not a bad modern day comparison to make in terms of how Bill Dickey probably was. Dickey may have hit for a far higher average than Gomes (316 vs .278) but keep in mind the league batting average for 1933 was .270 while in 2014 it was .251.

Just looking at a handful of players will not give you that type of era comparison perspective that these ratings will.

I won't go into much detail about how I do these ratings, mainly because its a very lengthy explanation, but I will say that everyone is compared head to head and not across different years.

The biggest advantage over what I have versus BR-reference is the position labels and pitcher roles. Not that baseball-reference does a bad job with them, but I tend to think they can be a little over simplistic and lazy in some cases. The position labels are pretty much set, but the pitcher roles is something I'm still kind of tinkering with. Its something that to this point I haven't done before so kind of learning as I go, but instead of seeing relief pitcher after relief pitcher after relief pitcher, you can actually search by setup men, closers, middle relievers, spot starters and I haven't seen any database anywhere that will let you do that on the scale that I have it on.

Stats are from 1871-2014. I haven't put in 2015 yet, but plan on doing so probably sometime in mid-January when I update this. I've also bolded league leaders where applicable which several hours to do. Ratings are on a 20-80 scale which mirrors the 2-8 scale commonly used by MLB scouts.

If people have any thoughts or comments let me know. This is meant as a research tool for people to use and not as a way to argue how Tony Gwynn should have been the 1987 NL MVP instead of Andre Dawson, although you can if you would like.

Next step may be to add in some year end awards and all-star appearances where applicable, but I'm probably going to hold off on that until January as well.

If I get positive feedback I'll keep posting more stuff like this from time to time, otherwise I will resume my normal novel like posts that I make every few days.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/aqr8njq450b6g4g/pmoehrin%27s%20history%20of%20baseball.xlsx?dl=0

If anyone is interested in doing some serious research, let me know. I'm often the youngest guy in the room by 20-30 years to the things I go to and for as much time as I see people doing fantasy research I see very few people my age taking the time to do things like this and as a result this type of research is danger of dying off.

Bill James was only in his 20's and working as a security guard when he wrote his first abstract. You don't have to be an old man to do this type of stuff.

[jrodsep]

David Price to the Red Sox. 7 years 217 million.

I would have wanted Greinke but Price will do.

[sportstar1212]

David Price to the Red Sox. 7 years 217 million.

YESSS!!!

I am so happy right now!

[Crabcake]

I think the Red Sox always made the most sense for Price - great relationship w/ the GM, pitching in a division he's used to (with the added bonus of being able to own your former team), and they offered him the most money. Which by the way, is TONS of money.

$217 million is the largest deal in MLB history for a SP. Who, by the way, has ZERO, COUNT 'EM, ZERO playoff wins. While Price was definitely the best pitcher on the market imo, and Red Sox front office, players, and fans should all be happy about this, the success of this deal will ultimately hinge on what Price does in October.

[FiddySicks]

Lol, ok Boston. Have fun with that one a half decade from now.

[DCarp1231]

How do the Red Sox and Yankees manage to pull all of this money out of their asses

[BigEd76]

The deal is actually 3/$90M since he has an opt-out

[FiddySicks]

And it's basically been throwing money at bad decision after bad decision, too. It's the Dodgers model but instead of being funded by European central banks it's funded by, I dunno, the mob? It's mind boggling.

[TheOldRoman]

And it's basically been throwing money at bad decision after bad decision, too. It's the Dodgers model but instead of being funded by European central banks it's funded by, I dunno, the mob? It's mind boggling.

And the Red Sox were able to do this the past few years only because the Dodgers bailed them out from a handful of other horrible contracts.

Either way, once again, LOL @ the Cubs. It was annoying hearing for the past twelve months that Price to the Cubs was secretly but illegally worked out already with Joe Maddon because he loved Maddon, admired Theo, really loved Wrigley Field despite never playing there, and would take less money if necessary because the Cubs are going to win the World Series and he wants to be immortalized.