Pre-draft 2016 NFL preview

[MCM0313]

Obviously, draft choices and injuries will alter this, but here's what I'm seeing right now. I'll do it the way the old Street & Smith's guides did in the '90s, with projected standings and playoff seedings but no actual records. An (x) means projected divisional champion; a (y) means projected wild-card team:

 

AFC

East

(1) Patriots (x) - Even with Brady suspended for four games, they're the class of the division.

 

(2) Bills - I still think their personnel favors a 4-3 rather than a 3-4, but they'll improve on both sides in Rex Ryan's second season, and I believe Tyrod Taylor is a legit QB, at least in this system.

 

(3) Jets - Matt Forte is definitely a more versatile halfback than the departed Chris Ivory, but without a dependable quarterback this team will remain a tweener. They overachieved last season and will have a tougher schedule this time around---I'm thinking 8-8 is a pretty good prediction.

 

(4) Dolphins - Unlike some others, I do believe that their defensive changes will produce an improvement on that side as long as they stay healthy. However, I'm not sure that they will stay healthy, and the offense...well, it has me wondering. They'd be well-served by a run-first attack, but they just let a very good running back (whom they almost never used properly) go in free agency. A power-running approach featuring Jay Ajayi and a player to be named later seems sensible but I don't know that their O-line is good enough to facilitate that, particularly with Ajayi's lack of experience. At the very least they have a pair of solid receivers in Landry and Parker. 5 or 6 wins seems a probable outcome.

 

North

(1)Bengals (x) - They're still the most balanced team in this division, and I would say that even if I weren't a Bengals fan. As long as they are able to replace secondary receiving options Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and to get bonehead Vontaze Burfict to control himself, they'll be fine.

 

(2)Ravens (y) - This team won't be kept down for long. Don't expect another perfect storm of injuries and bad defense this year. The Ravens will contend for a playoff spot.

 

(3)Steelers - Too many question marks on this team. I wouldn't trust the defense at all, and key wideout Martavis Bryant is suspended for the whole year. Yes, Darrius Heyward-Bey can fill in for Bryant, and of course they still have Big Ben, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, and Markus Wheaton, plus free-agent signee Ladarius Green to replace the retired Heath Miller at TE. The offense should still be one of the top-scoring attacks in the league, albeit slightly worse without Bryant. Still, it's hard not to wonder about Big Ben's age and health; Bell's health coming off a major injury; Green's ability to replace Miller; the health of the O-line; and, of course, almost the entire defense. The worst they'll do is 7-9; the best, 11-5. Exactly where they finish is anyone's guess. This team never meets expectations: they always exceed them or underperform.

 

(4)Browns - How bad will the Clown-suits be? It will be very interesting to see whom they take with their top selection in the draft. Zeke Elliott would be nice for them if he is still on the board. Later in the draft they'll have to try to replace Pro Bowl center Alex Mack and upgrade pretty much every position on the roster. If they have a good, productive draft, that could get them 1 or 2 additional wins. As they are right now, I'm thinking 1-15 at worst and 3-13 at best.

 

South

(1)Colts (x) - The Texans are the more complete team, but I just don't see the Colts staying down this season. They won't be great, but they'll be good enough to win an improving (but still weak) division, fighting off Houston and Jacksonville.

 

(2)Texans (y) - Will Brock Osweiler give Houston a much-needed upgrade at QB? Remains to be seen. Lamar Miller gives them a good, explosive running back, though, and without Arian Foster's injury history at that. The combo of Miller and power-plodder Alfred Blue (should they choose to keep using them) will give this team a good lightning-and-thunder rushing attack, and of course they still have DeAndre Hopkins to catch the ball. On defense, J.J. Watt remains transcendent, but there are question marks in a lot of places. This overall defensive unit could be anywhere from elite to average, and that will play a huge part in determining where they finish.

 

(3)Jaguars - The Jags took a big step toward respectability last season, thanks in large part to a potent passing attack. The Allens---Robinson and Hurns---are big receivers who can both make big plays. Having third receiver Marqise Lee available for a full season would be nice. The backfield may be a bit more crowded than before with second-year back T.J. Yeldon, veteran speedster Denard Robinson, and powerful free-agent signee Chris Ivory all on the roster, but at the very least they should be able to run the ball better than they did last year. The defense is the big question mark. Will free-agent signee Malik Jackson and 2015 first-rounder Dante Fowler Jr. be able to change the tune of what was, in 2015, a very weak defensive line? Will new CB Prince Amukamara improve the team's pass coverage? The Jaguars could, theoretically, take a big leap forward this year, surprise everyone, and win the AFC South. I think they're still a year away from true contention, though.

 

(4)Titans - The Titans improved slightly in Marcus Mariota's rookie year, and now they've upgraded his weaponry with halfback DeMarco Murray and wideout Rishard Matthews. Without better o-line play, though, it won't matter. New center Ben Jones will help but he's not going to turn the other four guys on this line into All-Pros. Matthews also makes the receiving corps very crowded. He, Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, and Dorial Green-Beckham are all talented but largely unproven players. I do believe Green-Beckham will eventually become a star, but I don't think it'll be this year. At least one of these wideouts will most likely be cut. On defense, they're improving and should be a solid unit, but even the best defenses begin to yield when their offense can't keep them off the field at all. That won't be the case here, of course, but neither unit will be elite. Expect continued improvement, but not contention.

 

West:

(1)Raiders (x) - You heard it here first. The Broncos and Chiefs are both weakened by personnel losses, and the Chargers just plain aren't very good. Derek Carr is an up-and-coming quarterback; Amari Cooper is an up-and-coming wide receiver. The pass rush will be fearsome, and the secondary, while not elite, will be better than last season, with press corner Sean Smith and ballhawking safety Reggie Nelson coming on board. The linebacking corps is probably the weakest spot on the D; Bruce Irvin is really as much a defensive end as anything else, and Malcolm Smith, while good, isn't as good as he was in Seattle without the same people surrounding him. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski and punter Marquette King are both very solid players. Overall, this is a team that appears to be young, loaded, and hungry. Their free-agent choices all make sense from my perspective, but of course we won't know for sure till they've taken the field. This will be an interesting team to watch one way or the other.

 

(2)Chiefs - This will be another interesting situation to watch. You have to think Jamaal Charles gets the starting halfback job back automatically to begin with, but that doesn't mean he won't be pushed. Charcandrick West is just as fast as Charles but without the elusiveness and vision; he's young and will improve. Spencer Ware also performed admirably in Charles' absence. The Chiefs need to find a way to keep bringing both those young backs along while continuing to give Charles opportunities to do what he does best, which is make big plays (particularly since QB Alex Smith doesn't make big plays). Their defense, however, looks weaker than last year's. Sean Smith is gone and no one knows for sure when (or if) Justin Houston will play this season. Make no mistake, this is a TEAM and can overcome the loss of significant players, but they still don't feel quite as strong to me as last year's unit. You never know with an Andy Reid-coached team, though.

 

(3)Broncos - This division's top three teams will be very close in quality. The Broncs' defense may take a slight step back this season with the loss of starters on all three levels from their Super Bowl champion team, but it will still be formidable. The offense, however, is a giant question mark. Who will be the quarterback? How good will he be? Will C.J. Anderson be able to take the next step as a definite feature back with Ronnie Hillman gone? What about the inconsistent offensive line? The draft could go a long way toward answering some of those questions, but this team doesn't look to me like it'll be as strong as it was last season.

 

(4)Chargers - Philip Rivers gets Keenan Allen back, and he still has Antonio Gates, Stevie Allen, Javontee Herndon, and Dontrelle Inman, and they're joined by ex-Browns speedster Travis Benjamin. Against teams without a pass rush, this offense will score loads of points. They play in the AFC West, however. Their o-line and defense both look weak, and Rivers figures to spend a lot of time on his back against divisional opponents. This season, perhaps the team's last in San Diego, won't be pretty.

 

[CS85]

Browns are going to  likely trade down AGAIN tomorrow if Elliott is there.  The Dolphins want him badly, and will pay more than anyone else to move up.  I know the Bears are craving him too, but Dolphins would likely pay a king's ransom to get him should the Browns pass.  The Cowboys, however, will probably bag him up.

[Kramerica Industries]

The Dolphins would be meriting a huge LOL if they were to trade assets to get a running back in the first round in the same off-season where they let their extremely underused incumbent of the past four seasons walk to a conference rival for a very modest sum relative to his worth. I'm not gonna buy that because I don't like to buy irrational decision making by NFL teams. 

[rams80]

23 minutes ago, Kramerica Industries said:

The Dolphins would be meriting a huge LOL if they were to trade assets to get a running back in the first round in the same off-season where they let their extremely underused incumbent of the past four seasons walk to a conference rival for a very modest sum relative to his worth. I'm not gonna buy that because I don't like to buy irrational decision making by NFL teams. 

 

Clearly you are not a Rams fan.

[JTernup]

I can guarantee you that the Raiders will not win the AFCW this year. The Chiefs and Broncos both have too many veterans to let that happen. I'd be very surprised if Oakland LA Sand Diego San Antonio Las Vegas Oakland wins 2 games off the Chiefs and Broncos. 

[MCM0313]

NFC

East

(1)Cowboys (x) - As imperfect as Tony Romo is, he's what makes this offense go, and he'll be back, with the league's best offensive line and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to. The o-line can make anyone into a 1,000-yard rusher, but exactly who will be that person this year remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen how effective Terrence Williams (or whoever else lines up in the other wideout spot) will be, though slot receiver Cole Beasley is typically reliable. The defense is full of question marks on the line and in the backfield, but it was two years ago too, and this is a weak division. Expect 10 to 11 wins from this group, but they're too incomplete to be a true title contender.

 

(2)Redskins - It's hard to know what to make of these guys. Kirk Cousins had a great year, but so did Mark Rypien once, and Robert Griffin III much later. The defense was pretty bad last year, and although cornerback Josh Norman will make it better, he will also hurt the team's salary cap long-term. Pass-rushing linebacker Junior Galette's return from injury is a definite plus. The offense needs to figure out for sure who's gonna run the football. Matt Jones and Chris Thompson have both done well at times but neither has much experience. I suspect they'll address this somewhere in the first three rounds of the draft. The tight-end combo of Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed seems really promising in theory but we'll see. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon return at wideout. This team could run an updated version of Joe Gibbs' one-back, two-tight-end offense in theory. 

 

(3)Giants - The Giants' offense should continue to perform well most of the time, and their defense is almost mathematically certain to get better, bad as it was last year. If they can break out of the nasty tendency they had in the later Coughlin years of consistently losing close games, they could win their division. If not, they could be 4-12. New coaches are hard to predict. I'm splitting the difference.

 

(4)Eagles - The Eagles are making wholesale changes to both strategy and personnel. This looks like a rebuilding year for them. Really, though, any of the four teams in the NFC East could win the division.

 

 

[MCM0313]

NFC North

(1)Packers (x) - Coach Meat Loaf and the Pack won't let the Vikings win the North again. With a healthy Jordy Nelson and a trim Eddie Lacy, the offense should be back to its old high-scoring ways, and if the defense builds on the gains it made in 2015, this could be the best team in the NFC. Of course, everything changes if Aaron Rodgers gets hurt.

 

(2)Vikings - I think Minnesota takes a step back this year. Playoffs? Maybe. They'll be appreciably worse than the Packers, but that's not necessarily through any fault of their own. Bridgewater should take another step and the defense will be stout, but the Packers are simply the better team.

 

(3)Bears - It'll be interesting to see how Jeremy Langford does as the full-time #1 back, or if the Bears even choose to use him as such. The defense could be very good. John Fox is an excellent defensive coach. Still, Cutler-to-Jeffery can only do so much. We'll see.

 

(4)Lions - This team is in rebuilding mode. They're the clear bottom rung on this ladder.        

[MCM0313]

NFC South

(1)Panthers (x) - Well, duh. I could see them falling from #1 seed to #3 seed, though, being leapfrogged by the Packers and whichever bird team wins the West.

 

(2)Buccaneers (y) - Dark-horse wild-card candidate. Winston has a good second season, defense continues to get better...this could be a dangerous team. If only they could fix their number font...

 

(3)Falcons - Dangerous offense will get better with the addition of Pro Bowl center Alex Mack. There's no indication, though, that the defense will be any less porous. End result, the team remains mediocre.

 

(4)Saints - Similar to the Falcons, they have a great offense and an awful defense. They need to find their way in terms of defensive strategy and personnel groupings, and that will take time. If they make quick strides right away, they could contend for the playoffs, but I see that as more likely in 2017.

[MCM0313]

NFC West

(1)Cardinals (x) - If Carson Palmer stays healthy, this team should be good enough to repeat as division champions. If Palmer gets hurt, the Seahawks take over. The defense was good last year. If they figure out who's going to rush the passer, they could be even better. This team has the makings of a Super Bowl contender if the chips fall right.

 

(2)Seahawks (y) - What, you thought they'd go away? It remains to be seen whether they'll lead the NFL in scoring defense for an eye-popping fifth consecutive season, but at the very least this defense will remain very good. They still have Russell Wilson on offense, and Thomas Rawls, assuming he returns fully from injury, should replace the retired Marshawn Lynch nicely; Rawls was the better back of the two last year anyway. Upgrades on the O-line couldn't hurt, but this remains a very solid team.

 

(3)Rams - Possible dark-horse wild-card contender if their expensive rookie-quarterback-to-be-named (most likely named Jared Goff) plays well, but another season of 6-8 wins seems more likely. Here's hoping Todd Gurley continues to be a beast. I'm considering buying up as many of his rookie cards as I can.

 

(4)49ers - If the Browns surprise, the 49ers could be the NFL's worst team. Massive roster turnover, a new head coach, quarterback uncertainty, and a strong division equal an epic fail of a season.

[MCM0313]

Playoff seedings:
AFC

(1)New England

(2)Cincinnati

(3)Oakland

(4)Indianapolis

(5)Baltimore

(6)Houston

 

NFC

(1)Green Bay

(2)Arizona

(3)Carolina

(4)Dallas

(5)Seattle

(6)Tampa Bay

 

1st-round playoff results:

(3)Oakland over (6)Houston

(5)Baltimore over (4)Indianapolis

(3)Carolina over (6)Tampa Bay

(5)Seattle over (4)Dallas

 

Divisional playoff results:

(5)Baltimore over (1)New England

(2)Cincinnati over (3)Oakland

(1)Green Bay over (5)Seattle

(3)Carolina over (2)Arizona

 

Conference Championships:

(2)Cincinnati over (5)Baltimore

(1)Green Bay over (3)Carolina

 

Super Bowl:
Green Bay Packers 34, Cincinnati Bengals 24

[Crabcake]

Here's how I think the top 10 will pan out:

 

1. Rams - Jared Goff, QB, Cal

2. Eagles - Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

3. Chargers - Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State

4. Cowboys - Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State

5. Jaguars - Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

6. Ravens - Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

7. 49ers - Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

8. Bucs - Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

9. Dolphins - Deforest Buckner, DE, Oregon

10. Giants - Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

[MCM0313]

26 minutes ago, Crabcake47 said:

Here's how I think the top 10 will pan out:

 

1. Rams - Jared Goff, QB, Cal

2. Eagles - Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

3. Chargers - Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State

4. Cowboys - Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State

5. Jaguars - Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

6. Ravens - Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

7. 49ers - Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

8. Bucs - Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

9. Dolphins - Deforest Buckner, DE, Oregon

10. Giants - Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

At first I was like, "Giants taking a WR? They've already got Beckham, Cruz and Randle!" Then I remembered that Randle was gone to Philly. Cruz's health and effectiveness are not guaranteed, either. Still, I think they'd be better served with a defensive player.

[Dynasty]

2 hours ago, MCM0313 said:

Playoff seedings:
AFC

(1)New England

(2)Cincinnati

(3)Oakland

(4)Indianapolis

(5)Baltimore

(6)Houston

 

NFC

(1)Green Bay

(2)Arizona

(3)Carolina

(4)Dallas

(5)Seattle

(6)Tampa Bay

 

1st-round playoff results:

(3)Oakland over (6)Houston

(5)Baltimore over (4)Indianapolis

(3)Carolina over (6)Tampa Bay

(5)Seattle over (4)Dallas

 

Divisional playoff results:

(5)Baltimore over (1)New England

(2)Cincinnati over (3)Oakland

(1)Green Bay over (5)Seattle

(3)Carolina over (2)Arizona

 

Conference Championships:

(2)Cincinnati over (5)Baltimore

(1)Green Bay over (3)Carolina

 

Super Bowl:
Green Bay Packers 34, Cincinnati Bengals 24

 

Until they win an actual playoff game, they should be first-round exit-bound on every prediction list.

 

EDIT: If they were to face Oakland, however, I'd say that's their best chance.

[Rockstar Matt]

8 hours ago, kcchiefsfan said:

I can guarantee you that the Raiders will not win the AFCW this year. The Chiefs and Broncos both have too many veterans to let that happen. I'd be very surprised if Oakland LA Sand Diego San Antonio Las Vegas Oakland wins 2 games off the Chiefs and Broncos. 

 

I wouldn't underrate the Raiders. They should be a playoff team this year or at least contend for a spot. They've been quietly building a contender there. 

[MCM0313]

4 hours ago, Rockstar Matt said:

 

I wouldn't underrate the Raiders. They should be a playoff team this year or at least contend for a spot. They've been quietly building a contender there. 

"Don't misunderestimate us!" ~Raiders

[DCarp1231]

Although it's very likely the Redskins will draft a RB, why is everyone's reasoning for it "Matt Jones doesn't have the experience"? OF COURSE he won't have a lot of experience! He was a rookie last year and sat behind Alfred Morris on the depth chart. He showed flashes of what he can do when he was given the chance. They'll likely draft a smaller back to compliment backfield catching.

 

I've also heard "experts" say the Redskins will draft a Tight End. Really? They have FIVE(!) TE already. Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Niles Paul, Logan Paulsen, and Derrick Carrier. Now, they'll likely release Paulsen or Carrier or even both down the line.

[MCM0313]

32 minutes ago, DNAsports said:

Although it's very likely the Redskins will draft a RB, why is everyone's reasoning for it "Matt Jones doesn't have the experience"? OF COURSE he won't have a lot of experience! He was a rookie last year and sat behind Alfred Morris on the depth chart. He showed flashes of what he can do when he was given the chance. They'll likely draft a smaller back to compliment backfield catching.

 

I've also heard "experts" say the Redskins will draft a Tight End. Really? They have FIVE(!) TE already. Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Niles Paul, Logan Paulsen, and Derrick Carrier. Now, they'll likely release Paulsen or Carrier or even both down the line.

I'd like to see them in the ol' Jumbo Ace formation (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) from Madden! 

 

As for Jones, yes, he showed flashes of brilliance but he also was often very ineffectual. Of course, Morris was too, so it could be a function of the offensive line more than anything else. As far as a smaller back who can catch passes, doesn't Chris Thompson fit that mold? Yes, he's inexperienced but he's been very good in a limited role; I don't think a step up to third-down back would be too much for him. However, I would definitely want to have someone else on hand in case he didn't work out. Their RB depth is paper-thin right now.

[JTernup]

10 hours ago, Rockstar Matt said:

 

I wouldn't underrate the Raiders. They should be a playoff team this year or at least contend for a spot. They've been quietly building a contender there. 

Oh I'm not underestimating the Raiders at all I know they have a very good team. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they grabbed a Wild Card spot. My point tis that I think OP is underestimating a team that beat the Raiders twice last season and won 11 straight games, and the reigning SB champs. No way the Raiders finish above both KC and Denver.

[MCM0313]

1 hour ago, kcchiefsfan said:

Oh I'm not underestimating the Raiders at all I know they have a very good team. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they grabbed a Wild Card spot. My point tis that I think OP is underestimating a team that beat the Raiders twice last season and won 11 straight games, and the reigning SB champs. No way the Raiders finish above both KC and Denver.

I mentioned that the top 3 of that division will be very close in quality. I just think the Raiders will be a little better, particularly on offense where they can actually throw deep if they need to (unlike KC) and will gain a lot of yards (unlike Denver). All three of those teams will have vicious pass rushes. It'll be a fun division for sure.

[DCarp1231]

As much as I hate the idea of the Eagles taking a QB with the #2 pick, I'll sadly admit it's probably will happen and is the best option for them.