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MLB changes 2018?

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15 minutes ago, SilverBullet1929 said:
1 hour ago, NicDB said:

Besides, we're talking about a state that nearly half the teams in baseball have a longer-standing connection to than the two local teams that emerged within the past 25 years.  

I'm not sure what you're getting at with this to be honest. 

 

He is saying that there are more people in Florida who care about the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Mets, the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Orioles, the Cardinals, and every other team that trains in that state than people who care about the Marlins and the Rays.

 

And there always will be.

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46 minutes ago, Ferdinand Cesarano said:

 

He is saying that there are more people in Florida who care about the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Mets, the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Orioles, the Cardinals, and every other team that trains in that state than people who care about the Marlins and the Rays.

 

And there always will be.

Oh yes I understand this but I'm saying those people will still support the Marlins when they're good... as long as theyre not playing their other team first of course.  Again, while many are fans of other teams I don't feel like they wouldn't support the Marlins if they had the opportunity. 

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12 hours ago, NicDB said:

 

The kids who were 5 years old for the Marlins first season are now 30 and have seen two World Series titles in their lifetime.

I didnt get what you meant with this in regards to the conversation ... is this a good thing or a bad thing?

 

Those 30 year old Florida kids (like me, I'm 36) have had the Marlins around for the majority of their lives and understand that 2 championships for the local team in their lifetime is enviable for the majority of other fanbases. 

 

Or are you saying that "they've seen 2 world championships yet still don't care to support the Marlins."?

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7 minutes ago, SilverBullet1929 said:

I didnt get what you meant with this in regards to the conversation ... is this a good thing or a bad thing?

 

Those 30 year old Florida kids (like me, I'm 36) have had the Marlins around for the majority of their lives and understand that 2 championships for the local team in their lifetime is enviable for the majority of other fanbases. 

 

Or are you saying that "they've seen 2 world championships yet still don't care to support the Marlins."?


This.  Even after the success the Marlins have seen, spring training loyalties still seem stronger for baseball fans in Florida.   There's no reason the Marlins should be drawing so poorly based on market size alone.

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What was the attendance leading up to and following their two World Championships?

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2 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

What was the attendance leading up to and following their two World Championships?

Quick glance on Baseball Almanac...

 

Average attendance dropped by about 8,000 between '97 and '98 and went up by about 5,000 per game between 2003 and '04. 2003 was the lowest average attendance out of any of these years, with about 16,000 per game. 2002 had an average a little over 10,000 per game. Last season, they averaged just over 20,000 per game.

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1 hour ago, NicDB said:


 Even after the success the Marlins have seen, spring training loyalties still seem stronger for baseball fans in Florida. 

Do you live in Florida? I'm just curious. I get the whole spring training loyalties idea but I don't feel that's true in Miami itself which is where I live specifically. Scattered around the state maybe so, especially further north, like there's Tigers fans in Lakeland and Braves fans in Orlando but in Miami itself I don't think that's the case so much. Down here it feels more like its older fans (over 40) who grew up with MLB teams from other states, or younger fans (under 40) who have "always" had the Marlins around and are waiting for them to be good because they always have at least one strong positive memory about them... aka: "Oh I remember being in freshman year when they won the 03 world series what a feeling I can't wait until they do that again" "Oh I remember my dad taking me to watch Dontrelle Willis pitch" "Oh I remember watching Kevin Browns no hitter" etc etc. 

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For 18 out of 25 years, the Marlins have ranked #15 or #16 in the NL for attendance... and that includes their 2003 championship season(!).  They haven't drawn 30,000 per game since their second year in the league, and have only even broken the 24,000 per game barrier in 4 of their 25 seasons.

Even when you control for losing seasons, this is a team that has failed to be anything close to a reasonable box office draw by every measurable standard.
 

Just now, SilverBullet1929 said:

Do you live in Florida? I'm just curious. I get the whole spring training loyalties idea but I don't feel that's true in Miami itself which is where I live specifically. Scattered around the state maybe so, especially further north, like there's Tigers fans in Lakeland and Braves fans in Orlando but in Miami itself I don't think that's the case so much. Down here it feels more like its older fans (over 40) who grew up with MLB teams from other states, or younger fans (under 40) who have "always" had the Marlins around and are waiting for them to be good because they always have at least one strong positive memory about them... aka: "Oh I remember being in freshman year when they won the 03 world series what a feeling I can't wait until they do that again" "Oh I remember my dad taking me to watch Dontrelle Willis pitch" "Oh I remember watching Kevin Browns no hitter" etc etc. 

 

Maybe I oversimplified it by calling it "spring training" loyalties.  But Florida is probably the most transient state in the union on top of that.  If the Marlins can be around for a full generation and still struggle this bad, it's probably safe to assume people aren't going to cut ties with the teams they grew up with in order to support the local club.

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22 minutes ago, NicDB said:

Maybe I oversimplified it by calling it "spring training" loyalties.  But Florida is probably the most transient state in the union on top of that.  If the Marlins can be around for a full generation and still struggle this bad, it's probably safe to assume people aren't going to cut ties with the teams they grew up with in order to support the local club.

They don't really have to cut ties though. They can support both when the time is right. I've met countless adult baseball fans who might be other fans first but who enjoy going to Marlins games and who would do so more if they feel the team was a consistent winner. They'll never root against their first team of course but they won't neglect the Marlins either if they're given a winner. 

 

Also, there's enough kids in this city who have had the Marlins around since birth, eventually that's an entire adult population who have had the Marlins around since birth. At that point the transient state thing, while true, becomes way less of a factor. My neighbor on the left may be from Chicago but my neighbor on the right was born and raised in Miami, so to speak. 

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The problem is, it's clearly not working out that way for the Marlins. The fans with existing loyalties only want to see the Marlins when their team is in town, and those who are loyal to the Marlins either aren't buying tickets, or there's just not that many of them.

 

When you have trouble finding even 10,000 people in a metro area of 5.5 million who want to consistently attend ballgames, it stands to reason the team is better off elsewhere.

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On 7/12/2018 at 4:25 PM, jp1409 said:

 

They get lower attendance than some AA clubs during the week now that they only count paid tickets. The actual attendance situation at Marlins Park is not only laughable, it is totally disastrous... 5000 paid tickets with 50-75% actually showing up spending some more at the stadium is ludicrous at best. I was absolutely stunned seeing how empty the place was at first pitch the last three-four times I've been there...

Once again, the town supports winners and won't tolerate a tear down and trading the reigning NL MVP and two Silver Sluggers/ Gold Glovers.

The team getting 5000 paid attendence is a testament that there are those down here who go to watch the Marlins, not a winning team. The team hasn't even offered discounted tickets like in the past. It's $30 to sit in the upper deck in RF.

 

Theres a forum called MarlinsBaseball.com that's discussed this very issue right now at the same time as us. It's chock full of anecdotes and things that the laymen wouldn't expect.

 

The team tore down, and is resetting it's ticket prices. That takes a season. When you could get $3 seats last year and now have to pay $30--- you don't see the value in the same way.


Saying the team should be in broward or west palm is a joke however.

 

Don't underestimate how much not firing Ozzie Guillen hurt this team in 2012, it didn't really bounce back in the Little Havana Cuban community the park sits on. They came back with Jose, for Jose- and he took the momentum and fanbase with him on that fateful boat ride.


This team blew it up and lost its Cuban Ace, and NL MVP after a manager said he loved Fidel Castro. The team's behind the 8 Ball, and I may hate that Jeter purged the roster- but if it has a chance to succeed--- it's going to be in the next 5 years or were talking relocation in 2035.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Ferdinand Cesarano said:

 

He is saying that there are more people in Florida who care about the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Mets, the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Orioles, the Cardinals, and every other team that trains in that state than people who care about the Marlins and the Rays.

 

And there always will be.

I see the Marlins and Rays as those northerners Second Teams, especially in playoff races. Alot of them support the Florida teams when their teams aren't active either. Their kids have relationships with the FL teams too.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Gothamite said:

What was the attendance leading up to and following their two World Championships?

That's not a fair question, mostly because we've already discussed why that old stadium blew more chunks than a frat boy on rush week,

 

However, the stadium was sold out for every playoff game- 75k seats or so, both runs.

 

That should tell you what you need to know about this market.

 

However to indulge you-

Marlins averaged

29k in 1997,

21k in 1998 (Firesale)

16k in 2003 (remember they fired their manager in June)

21k in 2004

22k in 2005

 

In other words, the team gets an attendence spike when it's winning- and nothing when it's rebuilding or burining bridges in the community. Like any franchise should have.


 

 

 

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1 hour ago, NicDB said:

For 18 out of 25 years, the Marlins have ranked #15 or #16 in the NL for attendance... and that includes their 2003 championship season(!).  They haven't drawn 30,000 per game since their second year in the league, and have only even broken the 24,000 per game barrier in 4 of their 25 seasons.

Even when you control for losing seasons, this is a team that has failed to be anything close to a reasonable box office draw by every measurable standard.
 

 

Maybe I oversimplified it by calling it "spring training" loyalties.  But Florida is probably the most transient state in the union on top of that.  If the Marlins can be around for a full generation and still struggle this bad, it's probably safe to assume people aren't going to cut ties with the teams they grew up with in order to support the local club.

Their 2003 World Series season was first a complete flop, with the team firing it's manager in June and 10 GB of the wild card before July hit.


Look at 2004 and 2005 for what a winner did- not a surprise champion from out of no where.

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19 minutes ago, tubby34 said:

...blew more chunks than a frat boy on rush week...

Dude, can I borrow that line?  ?

 

That literally made me laugh out loud.

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Just now, mafiaman said:

Dude, can I borrow that line?  ?

 

That literally made me laugh out loud.

Sure, as long as you mumble under your breath "Tubby 2018" like Seinfield would curse Newman ;)

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