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Death of the Alliance of American Football


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On 2/28/2019 at 10:22 AM, Gothamite said:

But these?  @Ice_Cap, you know I love ya, but these are not good points.  😛 

My point is that if the AAF is able to match tv ratings with leagues like the NHL and MLS that have had decades, if not a full century, to carve out their niche? Then that’s empiracle data that suggests that there is a not-insignificant market for the product the AAF puts out there.

 

Yeah, MLS’ ratings aren’t great for what they want to be, and the NHL’s ratings range from great in strong markets to dog :censored: in bad ones, which gives them a lower-middling average in the US. 

Still? It’s what I said above. The NHL has been around for over a century and has a pretty illustrious history/tradition to bank on. MLS is the new hotness, growing at impressive rates almost all categories.  

 

For the AAF, a league with no history or tradition to bank on, no real local roots of note, and as much skepticism as hype going in, to draw ratings equivalent to established leagues? That’s not bad.

I dare say it’s good, considering that the league can use those numbers to get something out of their tv deals in the future. 

 

We’re only three weeks in data-wise, but we haven’t seen the viewership crumble like we did with the XFL over the same period. In the XFL’s case strong viewership dissipated after early curiosity led to the realization that no one wanted to watch that crap. 

Here? Early curiosity seems to have left a sizeable core of viewers who dig what’s being presented. 

 

Obviously tv ratings aren’t everything, but the AAF’s goal isn’t to supplant the NFL, or even the NHL or MLS. Its goal is, or should be, survival. 

Survival in this case means bringing in money. Be it from tv partners, advertisers, or investors. And being able to go to those people and say “we have a tv audience on par with the NHL and MLS” is a good thing considering where they are. 

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As far as expansion goes? My BASS cohost @infrared41 suggested they may need to wait five years before safely expanding. 

 

I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say three maybe? It seems like the league will either be gone on solid footing three years out. Still? Expanding after one season is a mistake. 

 

Relocation never looks good, but it’s less egregious for minor leagues (which is what the AAF ultimately is), and it’s better then throwing up another team that may not be supported. So if they have markets that they think will do well? Move struggling teams. Moving Salt Lake to Columbus will probably be better for the league’s health than having both Salt Lake and Columbus. 

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6 minutes ago, Ice_Cap said:

As far as expansion goes? My BASS cohost @infrared41 suggested they may need to wait five years before safely expanding. 

 

I wouldn’t go that far. I’d say three maybe? It seems like the league will either be gone on solid footing three years out. Still? Expanding after one season is a mistake. 

 

Relocation never looks good, but it’s less egregious for minor leagues (which is what the AAF ultimately is), and it’s better then throwing up another team that may not be supported. So if they have markets that they think will do well? Move struggling teams. Moving Salt Lake to Columbus will probably be better for the league’s health than having both Salt Lake and Columbus. 

 

That hasn't stopped the AAF fans on Reddit from predicting expansion for year 2.

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Gonna circle back to that survival thing for a bit.

 

Are we sure the AAF's goal is survival?  Remember, it's run and fronted by tech guys who are really explicit about how the point of this league is to sell an app.  By and large, the standard silicon valley model nowadays is start something up, get some well heeled VCs to buy your patent/IP/idea, and then liquidate.  Are we sure this league is going to be long for the world if say the app gets adapted or bought by one of the majors?

On 8/1/2010 at 4:01 PM, winters in buffalo said:
You manage to balance agitation with just enough salient points to keep things interesting. Kind of a low-rent DG_Now.
On 1/2/2011 at 9:07 PM, Sodboy13 said:
Today, we are all otaku.

"The city of Peoria was once the site of the largest distillery in the world and later became the site for mass production of penicillin. So it is safe to assume that present-day Peorians are descended from syphilitic boozehounds."-Stephen Colbert

POTD: February 15, 2010, June 20, 2010

The Glorious Bloom State Penguins (NCFAF) 2014: 2-9, 2015: 7-5 (L Pineapple Bowl), 2016: 1-0 (NCFAB) 2014-15: 10-8, 2015-16: 14-5 (SMC Champs, L 1st Round February Frenzy)

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Mark Malone already calling the Fleet the Chargers. Lol. Memphis has a pretty decent defense so maybe they'll get that upset win. With the single entity model i assume coaches wont be fired mid-season, but Iron Mike can't feel safe. 

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9 minutes ago, rams80 said:

Gonna circle back to that survival thing for a bit.

 

Are we sure the AAF's goal is survival?  Remember, it's run and fronted by tech guys who are really explicit about how the point of this league is to sell an app.  By and large, the standard silicon valley model nowadays is start something up, get some well heeled VCs to buy your patent/IP/idea, and then liquidate.  Are we sure this league is going to be long for the world if say the app gets adapted or bought by one of the majors?

MGM is already invested, but Dundon has similar technology to the all with Toptracer.

As I mentioned two weeks ago.  I believe Dundon needed to see how the app worked during week1 before he was convinced to invest.

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23 minutes ago, rams80 said:

Gonna circle back to that survival thing for a bit.

 

Are we sure the AAF's goal is survival?  Remember, it's run and fronted by tech guys who are really explicit about how the point of this league is to sell an app.  By and large, the standard silicon valley model nowadays is start something up, get some well heeled VCs to buy your patent/IP/idea, and then liquidate.  Are we sure this league is going to be long for the world if say the app gets adapted or bought by one of the majors?

If you aren't looking to survive, get in with McMahon and improve your tech for the XFL.

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28 minutes ago, walkerws said:

Mark Malone already calling the Fleet the Chargers. Lol. Memphis has a pretty decent defense so maybe they'll get that upset win. With the single entity model i assume coaches wont be fired mid-season, but Iron Mike can't feel safe. 

The Express’ defence is quite good and they have the Apollos a game once they banished Christian Hackenberg to the sidelines. They could make noise. 

 

37 minutes ago, rams80 said:

Gonna circle back to that survival thing for a bit.

 

Are we sure the AAF's goal is survival?  Remember, it's run and fronted by tech guys who are really explicit about how the point of this league is to sell an app.  By and large, the standard silicon valley model nowadays is start something up, get some well heeled VCs to buy your patent/IP/idea, and then liquidate.  Are we sure this league is going to be long for the world if say the app gets adapted or bought by one of the majors?

I honestly don’t put stock in the “we’re a tech company first” line. It came off as PR to try an alleviate fears that always come with starting an alternative football league. By going “we’re a tech company first” I think they were trying to calm people down who’ve seen this fail before/alleviate the concerns of potential investors by putting on a slicker facade than past attempts at this sort of thing had. 

 

Now say the NFL looks at the app and decides it wants it. And they pony up the cash. I don’t see the AAF going away, just due to the fact that they seem to provide decent ratings for their Network and tv partners. 

I think the best-case scenario for the AAF is that the NFL buys the league to get the app technology and just runs it as a spring developmental league. 

 

That the AAF/NFL relationship seems more amicable than any other past attempts at an alternative league seems seems to suggest this isn’t that out there. 

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44 minutes ago, rams80 said:

Gonna circle back to that survival thing for a bit.

 

Are we sure the AAF's goal is survival?  Remember, it's run and fronted by tech guys who are really explicit about how the point of this league is to sell an app.  By and large, the standard silicon valley model nowadays is start something up, get some well heeled VCs to buy your patent/IP/idea, and then liquidate.  Are we sure this league is going to be long for the world if say the app gets adapted or bought by one of the majors?

Survival could also entail being a testing ground for rules and other technology changes, similar to what MLB is doing with the independent Atlantic League.

It's where I sit.

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4 minutes ago, Sec19Row53 said:

Survival could also entail being a testing ground for rules and other technology changes, similar to what MLB is doing with the independent Atlantic League.

Yeah. The NFL could gain a lot by having the AAF around. 

Test out new rules. 

Provide content for their Network during the post-Super Bowl lul.

Function as a developmental league. As more information on the health risks inherent in gridiron football comes out? The uncompensated nature of NCAA football may become untenable. Having a spring minor league where players are compensated may be something the NFL will have to consider as a contingency if NCAA football shrinks in viability.

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15 minutes ago, Ice_Cap said:

Yeah. The NFL could gain a lot by having the AAF around. 

Test out new rules. 

Provide content for their Network during the post-Super Bowl lul.

Function as a developmental league. As more information on the health risks inherent in gridiron football comes out? The uncompensated nature of NCAA football may become untenable. Having a spring minor league where players are compensated may be something the NFL will have to consider as a contingency if NCAA football shrinks in viability.

To be clear - I have no expectation of this happening. I'm not in the 'sky is falling' crowd. I just see this as a possbility to have a live chance at tweaking rules. Heck, they could change them on a week-to-week basis if they so desired. The NFL has always been reactionary regarding rules changes.

It's where I sit.

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10 minutes ago, Sec19Row53 said:

To be clear - I have no expectation of this happening. I'm not in the 'sky is falling' crowd. I just see this as a possbility to have a live chance at tweaking rules. Heck, they could change them on a week-to-week basis if they so desired. The NFL has always been reactionary regarding rules changes.

I’m unsure if NCAA football will shrink or fall off entirely, but given the increased scrutiny on the sport and the NCAA’s uncompensated nature? It’s only natural that the NFL should want a contingency plan in place.  

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2 hours ago, walkerws said:

Mark Malone already calling the Fleet the Chargers. Lol. Memphis has a pretty decent defense so maybe they'll get that upset win. With the single entity model i assume coaches wont be fired mid-season, but Iron Mike can't feel safe. 

 

He probably wishes he was still at ESPN covering the draft. 

 

As for Singletary, he'll be fine after his one and done season with the AAF.  He's the head football coach of Trinity Christian Academy in the Dallas suburb of Addison. 

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1 hour ago, Ice_Cap said:

I’m unsure if NCAA football will shrink or fall off entirely, but given the increased scrutiny on the sport and the NCAA’s uncompensated nature? It’s only natural that the NFL should want a contingency plan in place.  

 

The only thing that will kill off the NCAA is an awareness that the sport shouldn’t be played by human beings and the resulting lack of insurers willing to cover them.

 

Which, if it happens, will kill off the AAF first.  And the NFL after both.

 

I think college football is immoral and indefensible and should be eliminated entirely.  But I’m not optimistic that my view will be a consensus view anytime soon.

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