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College Football 2018-19: Santa Clara is that a way.

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I don't think they were getting in anyway. Sorry, UCF, but the 70th best schedule isn't gonna cut it when the other teams in the conversation are a lot higher. Maybe stop demanding home-and-homes for good teams to play you. 

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Just now, See Red said:

I don't think they were getting in anyway. Sorry, UCF, but the 70th best schedule isn't gonna cut it when the other teams in the conversation are a lot higher. Maybe stop demanding home-and-homes for good teams to play you. 

You know, you could make the argument about Notre Dame as well. They don't play the same schedule as, say, an Ohio State or an Alabama or a Georgia or an Oklahoma. But because they're Notre Dame, they get way more credit than they're actually due.

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17 minutes ago, See Red said:

I don't think they were getting in anyway. Sorry, UCF, but the 70th best schedule isn't gonna cut it when the other teams in the conversation are a lot higher. Maybe stop demanding home-and-homes for good teams to play you. 

You’re right that they’ll never make it in, but consider that Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri all had lower ranked schedules than UCF did last year. Do you doubt for a second that if any of those teams went undefeated, they would make it in? Odds are they would be put in at #1. So why isn’t that the case for UCF? They can’t control how good their conference is. 

 

Agreed on the home-and-home thing though. The most they’ll ever get from a big school is a neutral-site game.

 

EDIT: I’m not saying that UCF should’ve been #1 last year, just giving the SEC teams as an example.

Edited by Magic Dynasty

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5 minutes ago, willmorris said:

You know, you could make the argument about Notre Dame as well. They don't play the same schedule as, say, an Ohio State or an Alabama or a Georgia or an Oklahoma. But because they're Notre Dame, they get way more credit than they're actually due.

ND's schedule isn't terrible though; it's a bunch of ACC teams and mainly other P5 teams.  They weren't helped by many of those P5 teams like VT, FSU, and USC sucking, with Stanford also underwhelming, but Michigan, Northwestern, and Syracuse are much stronger top-3 of opponents than, say, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Temple.

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10 minutes ago, Magic Dynasty said:

You’re right that they’ll never make it in, but consider that Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri all had lower ranked schedules than UCF did last year. Do you doubt for a second that if any of those teams went undefeated, they would make it in? Odds are they would be put in at #1. So why isn’t that the case for UCF? They can’t control how good their conference is. 

 

Agreed on the home-and-home thing though. The most they’ll ever get from a big school is a neutral-site game.

 

EDIT: I’m not saying that UCF should’ve been #1 last year, just giving the SEC teams as an example.

 

You're probably right. But I will say part of the SEC (and Big Ten) is the grind, since the bad teams in the SEC are still pretty good relative to the bulk of UCF's schedule. For Florida this year, for instance, Vanderbilt might not be terribly tough but when it's the game between LSU and Georgia, it is not quite as easy of a game. 

 

Georgia got lucky in that regard last year. Florida and Tennessee were so bad that South Carolina actually looked reasonably good.

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1 hour ago, willmorris said:

You know, you could make the argument about Notre Dame as well. They don't play the same schedule as, say, an Ohio State or an Alabama or a Georgia or an Oklahoma. But because they're Notre Dame, they get way more credit than they're actually due.

 

You are the weirdest Notre Dame fan ever.

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2 minutes ago, oldschoolvikings said:

 

You are the weirdest Notre Dame fan ever.

If only because I'm a realist.

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3 minutes ago, SabresRule7361 said:

Kentucky deserves NY6 more than Florida.

 

Nobody will watch Kentucky in bowl game when the Peach can pit Florida vs. UCF. 

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24 minutes ago, SabresRule7361 said:

Kentucky deserves NY6 more than Florida.

 

Florida is #13 in the S&P+, Kentucky is #41.  If they played tomorrow, the very accurate S&P+ gives Florida a 71.5% chance of winning.  Now, I understand Kentucky beat Florida but, for obvious reasons, that can't always be applied to rankings.  It was early enough and Florida is a different enough team that I'm not sure the head-to-head game matters as much as Kentucky's late-season struggles.

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8 hours ago, Wings said:

 

Nobody will watch Kentucky in bowl game when the Peach can pit Florida vs. UCF. 

 

Christ, I want no part of that. If Florida wins that game, especially with Milton's injury, it's just big brother beating up on little brother. If UCF wins, Florida will never hear the end of it.

 

No. Put them in different bowl games.

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18 minutes ago, Kramerica Industries said:

 

Christ, I want no part of that. If Florida wins that game, especially with Milton's injury, it's just big brother beating up on little brother. If UCF wins, Florida will never hear the end of it.

 

No. Put them in different bowl games.

Would the SEC veto it like they did A&M vs Texas a few years back?

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30 minutes ago, Kramerica Industries said:

 

Christ, I want no part of that. If Florida wins that game, especially with Milton's injury, it's just big brother beating up on little brother. If UCF wins, Florida will never hear the end of it.

 

No. Put them in different bowl games.

If Florida wins, UCF would also never hear the end of it. It would be similar to how people (mostly Alabama fans) were saying that they “wimped out” of their Georgia Tech game last year (which they would’ve won anyway), even though it was cancelled due to a cat-4 hurricane. Or the “Auburn didn’t try” argument in the Peach Bowl. Oh, so Auburn just doesn’t care about winning a NY6 bowl anymore, because they’re not in the CFP? It would be like that, but a thousand times worse. Never mind that their star QB got injured, UCF losing (probably by a touchdown or less) to a mediocre Florida team obviously means that they were a fraud all along.

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4 minutes ago, Magic Dynasty said:

If Florida wins, UCF would also never hear the end of it. It would be similar to how people (mostly Alabama fans) were saying that they “wimped out” of their Georgia Tech game last year (which they would’ve won anyway), even though it was cancelled due to a cat-4 hurricane. Or the “Auburn didn’t try” argument in the Peach Bowl. Oh, so Auburn just doesn’t care about winning a NY6 bowl anymore, because they’re not in the CFP? It would be like that, but a thousand times worse. Never mind that their star QB got injured, UCF losing (probably by a touchdown or less) to a mediocre Florida team obviously means that they were a fraud all along.

 

That's a risk UCF faces with any P5 team they face in a big bowl game, though. It's not a Florida-centric issue. Central Florida isn't expected to be the best team in the state of Florida; them being the best team says more about how poor the Florida/Florida State/Miami collective is right now, with all due respect; maybe down the road UCF will have successfully turned it into a Big Four instead of a Big Three. In any case, this just feels like the kind of deal where Florida has nothing to gain but plenty to lose. Put another way - Florida fans won't exactly be glorifying things if they beat Central Florida in a bowl game; we've had bigger wins before, and hopefully will have bigger wins in the future. But there's every chance that, due to opponent, prestige, and circumstances, that Central Florida beating Florida would be the biggest win in their program's history, and, again, I really want nothing to do with that.

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It's just one source, but the Sagarin ratings peg Notre Dame's SOS as 44th toughest in the nation. Alabama's is currently 55th, Clemson's is currently 48th, Ohio State's is 43rd and Oklahoma's is 37th. Neither Clemson or Ohio State should see materially huge SOS jumps this week.

 

Notre Dame has played a schedule that is more or less on par with all other P5 contenders this season, as they typically do. In fact, this is the weakest ND schedule of Brian Kelly's tenure, per Sagarin, and it still stacks up with the SOS faced by other contenders.

 

BTW: ND's 2017 regular season SOS was ranked 2nd by Sagarin.

 

This idea that ND has a materially easier path to the playoff is a complete myth.

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20 hours ago, See Red said:

 

Well, they're not wrong. Ohio State losing to Purdue, Oklahoma losing to Texas, and Georgia losing to LSU -- none of those games matter if they go to eight teams.  I like the fact that every regular season game matters. The question for me is if it's worth replacing that with games that are, based on the semi-finals so far, likely to be lopsided (6 out of 8 games). 

 

Unrelated, but at some point in yesterday's game, Florida DB Chancey Gardner-Johnson, realizing he had nobody to defend on a play, motioned to the FSU sideline that they only had ten men on the field (a Seminoles player then runs onto the field). I love the Willie Taggart era at Florida State!

With conference championships we already effectively have quarterfinal games set up (At least in theory, it only really applies this season to the SEC). 

 

I’m a fan of the 4 team playoff. Gives teams little to no margin for error. If teams like Georgia want in, beat Bama, if you’re Ohio State, don’t get trashed by a 6 win team. 

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18 hours ago, MJWalker45 said:

 

The committee will keep them out, specifically because he's out. And they're not of moving up past 7 in the coaches poll no matter how big they win in the AAC Championship.

I also find this to be ridiculous. Remember when JT Barrett got injured for Ohio State? Yeah his backup did fine, only beat Alabama and won a national title. We don’t know how good UCF’s backup is, it’s not fair to them to exclude them just because their starting QB is out. 

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2 minutes ago, DScruggy729 said:

I also find this to be ridiculous. Remember when JT Barrett got injured for Ohio State? Yeah his backup did fine, only beat Alabama and won a national title. We don’t know how good UCF’s backup is, it’s not fair to them to exclude them just because their starting QB is out. 

We also don't know which backup will be playing. They've used two different quarterbacks this season when Milton sat out games. 

 

walder_seth.png&w=160&h=160&scale=crop

Seth WalderESPN Analytics 

Even putting aside McKenzie Milton's injury, Playoff Predictor does not consider UCF a real playoff contender because it is based on the selection committee's past behavior. And in the past, the committee selected teams that were some combination of "best" and "most deserving." According to FPI and Strength of Record, respectively, UCF is neither. If the committee does put UCF into the playoff, it would signal a shift in criteria away from best and most deserving and toward simply a lower number in the loss column. That would be a little ironic, given that the reason the committee is needed in the first place is because win-loss records fail to tell the whole story in college football.

 

Because they didn't play a top 25 team that finished the season in the Top 25 doesn't mean they aren't better than anyone else. It means they played everyone on their schedule and beat them all. Had they played and beaten North Carolina as convincingly as they beat USF, would that win even be discussed since UNC is 2-9? And as far as wins and losses not telling the whole story, in what other leagues does that occur? Alabama wasn't even the SEC Champ but they were arguably better than Auburn. Had Auburn won the SEC would Alabama still have been considered? Yes! Because they were better than Ohio State.

14 minutes ago, DScruggy729 said:

With conference championships we already effectively have quarterfinal games set up (At least in theory, it only really applies this season to the SEC). 

 

I’m a fan of the 4 team playoff. Gives teams little to no margin for error. If teams like Georgia want in, beat Bama, if you’re Ohio State, don’t get trashed by a 6 win team. 

I would prefer a 16 team playoff because if you're going to pretend that you want to take care of every conference that's the way to do it. Will it ever happen? Nope!  I think the next time the playoffs go up for negotiation we'll see an expansion to 8 teams with the caveat the Big 5 will all get a team in the playoff and the Group of 5 team will get more money to play in a New Years Six bowl, but still have to walk on water to get in to the playoff spots. 

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I don't think college football is better with three of Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Penn State, Syracuse, Texas, Washington State and West Virginia making a playoff, nor do I think it's better with a Michigan/Washington first-round game.

 

I can't remember if I saw a post to this degree here or elsewhere, but the best playoff system would be one that looks at the season outcome, then fills the field with the teams are deserving of a national title opportunity. It could be two, it could be eight.

 

Considering that we're not going to get such a system, I think six teams is the ideal number -- it's highly unlikely to see a situation within the current structure where there are more than six teams that can truly have a claim that they should play for a national championship.

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