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2018 MLB Off Season Thread


FiddySicks

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Harper is too inconsistent to be worth that contract IMO. Only one amazing season and not so great defense. He couldn't even manage to put up a .900 OPS during a contract year. Machado is the better player, but Harper is more marketable. Harper's attitude is probably better among the two of them, although that's not saying much.

 

Players and agents keep whining about the unsigned free agents and predict a lockout, but Harper probably could have signed months ago if his massive ego wasn't a factor (it's so plainly obvious he wanted to surpass Stanton's contract) and his apparent aversion to Philadelphia as a city (as opposed to somewhere more glamorous like NY, SF, or LA).

 

Baseball finances do need an overhaul, but let's not act like players/agents aren't at fault here too.

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He turned down 12/$310 from SF. LA offered $45M avg but short term. I don’t doubt he’d rather be in LA, but he turned down an opt-out with the Phillies so he could “stay in one place for the rest of his career and recruit star players to the city”.  I don’t think for a second that Phila was his first choice, but not going for an opt out is VERY telling. It’s borderline insanity, but it’s certainly putting your money where your mouth is. 

 

I dont blame a guy for maximizing his worth. Not sure it’s ego rather than just capitalism. 

 

With the DH coming to the NL, it’s less risky. Also, he’s still only 26, and will be making less than other top stars. At the end of the deal, even mediocre players will be making as much as him. He will be easily tradable (despite no trade clause). 

 

Its a stupid deal  - on HIS end. 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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37 minutes ago, Wings said:

Scott Boras and his massive ego always wins. 

 

I'm tired of this.  Boras works for the player.  If Harper had, at any time, said "sign now", he would have had to.  Boras certainly knows how to play the game as well as anyone, and probably kept telling Harper to wait it out (and apparently the Phillies did up their offer just this morning) but at the end of the day, Harper is his boss.

 

Anyway, Harper certainly didn't lose, but I'm not so sure they won.  13-years is a ton, but the average/year still allows for a lot of payroll flexibility, especially if they're going to be in the mix for Trout, and they'll need to sign Rhys Hoskins (another Boras client) to a potentially huge deal in a year or so.  Aaron Nola will get PAID in 4 seasons, so it's great to have what will be an UNDER MARKET deal for your star when those deals need to be made.

 

The lack of opt-out makes it crystal clear that he's committed to Phila (not that he wouldn't have been to anywhere else) and is huge when it comes to luring other FAs and knowing how your payroll will look going forward.

 

Also, the DH will allow for him to be productive later in that deal.

 

Hell - in 5 seasons, the clubhouse attendants will probably make $15M/year, so $25 for Harper will seem like peanuts.

 

 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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I think looking at it in terms of whether he's "worth it" based on performance is stupid.  

 

If a player contributes a lot to a team that wins multiple WSs, and doesn't kill your payroll, then he was worth it, even if he is only average by year 8.  If they win multiple WSs, then considering what that does to a team's bottom line, he was likely worth the overall $330M regardless of whether he's a bench player at the end of the deal.  THe Phillies are committed to being a top 5 payroll team for the life of his deal, and since his per-year hit is a relative bargain (only 15th in today's numbers, probably like 30th in 5 years), they can just spend their way out of the deal if he can't play.

 

I don't know much about Bryce Harper, and I cringe when I see these numbers getting thrown around, and acknowledge that there's a huge amount of risk with a long-term deal - but taking off my fan cap, I think that this super-long-term deal is about as team-friendly as it gets.

 

None of it matters if they don't win at least one championship - probably more - and they are still a few pieces away from being in that discussion, though they're certainly the most improved team from last year to this.

 

The numbers that were offered:

SF: 12/310 (25.83)

LA: 4/180 (45)

PHL: 13/330 (25.38)

 

Obviously the California income tax is the highest in the country, while PA state income tax is just over 3% (however, there's a Philadelphia city wage tax of 4% on top of everything.)  

 

 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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I'm sure for the Phillies, it's worth the risk. I think the Phillies are actually hoping they can get 8-9 quality years and rest is a bonus if he's still productive. I'll take a guess that it is front-loaded and the back end of the deal won't hurt that much considering what the salaries 10 years from now might be and inflation. 

I saw, I came, I left.

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It might be a little front loaded - not sure if that will be disclosed, but it would make sense.  I know it sounds silly to talk about having flexibility with a guaranteed 13-year contract with no opt-outs on either side, but the Phillies really did buy themselves some flexibility.  The AAV is very reasonable, with or without loading, and it allows them to continue to spend on re-signing their own players and signing even expensive FAs.  

 

I get that Machado might be a better player, but I like the Harper deal way better than what Machado got.

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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One rumor is that if the Phillies don’t give him 34 (they may retire for Halladay) he could take 58, in memory of the victims of the Vegas shootings. I think that’d be cool, just because it’s an odd number for a non-reliever to wear. 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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Man philly made the stupidest deal I've seen since the Angels signed Josh Hamilton there absolutely no way he gonna produce at a level consistently for this to worth it given his career history. I mean 10+ year deals are stupid for anyone not named Mike Trout anyways  but for a guys that is so streaky and one who I've seen look disinterested even when his team dose well at times it's gonna be fun watching the Phillies deal with this albatross of a contract. Also good for Bryce on the deal got nothing against him taking the it just mythed as to why any team would do this in the modern age of baseball, it's just never pans out and only happens the teams ability to spend later. If I owned a team I be fine with any amount of money a player wants there is just absolutely no way I'm going over 6 years. 

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He’ll be paid so “low” at the second half of the deal that it will be a bargain unless he falls off a cliff, and he’s so young that he should be ok. Again, there’s a lot of risks- on both sides- but that’s the price of adding a 26-year-old star that you can market your team around and who should make Rhys Hoskins a superstar. 

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He'll get $30 million this year ($20 million of it in a signing bonus), $26 million for the nine years after that and $22 million for the final three seasons.”

 

That’s not a bad contract, considering poop bags like Carlos Santana make over $20M now. 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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On 2/20/2019 at 11:13 AM, BringBackTheVet said:

With all the talk about San Diego being "small market", I looked it up and was surprised that their market size was listed as only 2.4 million.

 

Where is the line drawn?  Who, other than the obvious, is the 'big market' teams?

 

I think the label of big market/small market isnt based on how big your population is, but where you lie on the plane of franchise value.  Obviously your NY, LA, Chicago are big markets but if you were to ask me the Chisox and the Angels lean towards the medium size on how i perceive their teams.

 

Best example i can state is my own.  Tampa Bay's tv market is listed as #11, but clearly the Raysis small market.

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Yeah the Chicago situation is interesting. I’ve never heard the white Sox as a big market team. I guess they’re more “regional”, meaning south side Chicago and limited fans throughout the rest while the Cubs are “chicagoland’s team”?  So maybe the Cubs media rights are worth a ton more than the chisox?  Maybe it’s the same with the Clippers and Angels?

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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12 hours ago, Digby said:

I love that it's a record contract and we're saying it seems low. I get why, just still funny. I assume Mike Trout and Mookie Betts both will shatter that when it's their respective turns, though.

 

trout will be handed an empty check and a pen lol

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8 minutes ago, tutorhunky said:

 

trout will be handed an empty check and a pen lol

 

I think he’ll give the Phillies a bit of a Home town discount. 

 

Related -

Harper will switch to #3, fueling speculation that the Phillies will retire 34 for Halladay, which opens up a whole can of worms for them. 

"The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed."

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