MLB 2021

[beachperroAZ]

6 hours ago, Gothamite said:

That's a really interesting question.  But honestly?  No. 
 

Is the Trop a problem?  Yes.  Did it make the situation worse than it should have been?  Yes.  But “poisoned the well” connotes a certain inevitability that I just don’t see.
 

Winning cures everything.  And winning didn’t even make a dent in the Rays’ problem.  You put that bad stadium situation in virtually any other market, and fans would find a way to come out to see a World Series contender.  Or if not put them at the top of the attendance charts, at least keep them off the bottom. 

 

Look, the ballplayers know full well how bad the stadium situation is.  And even they have had to speak out about the terrible attendance, like Evan Longoria in 2010:

 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=5625055

 

Only two years removed from a World Series.   And while about to clinch the AL East.  That was extraordinary at the time. It’s still strange to see today.

 

Reading the article again now, I’m reminded that the area’s defenders used to say that winning would solve the problem. But it hasn’t.  It didn’t help during their World Series run.  It didn’t help the following year, when you would otherwise expect to see the attendance bump. And it didn’t help in any future year either, no matter how great the team was on the field.

 

Thats not to say that the don’t have die-hards.  Every team does. Montreal had theirs too.  And I have no doubt that the people arguing the case here on this thread are coming from a genuine place and well represent them.  But die-hards alone aren’t enough for a team to survive, much less thrive.  You need to tap into something larger, something that’s not always there.
 

Now, I do think that it’s possible the Montreal plan has indeed poisoned the well.  That might have been a step too far, and we might look back in decades to come as the point of no return, the final nail in the coffin, sealing the deal.  But the ballpark itself?  No. 

I sometimes wonder if the Great Recession from 2008-2012ish played a part in the attendance problems when the Rays were doing well the first time around?  Florida, Arizona and other parts of the sun belt got smashed harder than other parts of the country because of the housing market was such a big industry in those places. 

[tBBP]

So ummm... *checks top of webpage* is there any oh, I don't know, logo and uniform news embedded in all this Rays fans/relocation drama???

[SFGiants58]

38 minutes ago, tBBP said:

So ummm... *checks top of webpage* is there any oh, I don't know, logo and uniform news embedded in all this Rays fans/relocation drama???

When there’s no news, we go into tangents. 
 

55 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

 

Sure, if everything was totally different the situation wouldn’t be the same!

 

I was just giving my basic criteria for a market with a fair chance. With my logic, Tampa Bay never had a fair chance. 

 

55 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

I think you and I actually agree more than we disagree here. 

 

I’m starting to realize that, but with the caveat that I don’t think the market had a fair chance.

 

55 minutes ago, Gothamite said:

The stadium is where it is.  Public transit is what it is.  People have to decide whether or not to support the team they have.  Tampa Bay has decided not to.  Which is a totally legitimate choice.  But they were given a fair chance to make it.

I’d say that Tampa Bay was forced into that decision by literally every off-field decision made since the mid-1980s. No amount of winning fixes that toxic of an off-field situation. If the team’s not bad, then the team is trying to move at every opportunity while demanding the public pay for albatross stadiums. I wouldn’t necessarily say it was a fair choice.

 

That’s ultimately where we differ. I think we can agree to disagree at this point.

[Gothamite]

2 hours ago, SFGiants58 said:

That’s ultimately where we differ. I think we can agree to disagree at this point.

[Sec19Row53]

Thanks to https://www.baseball-reference.com/ and some general boredom, here are the Rays average attendances per year back to 2007, as well as their average when hosting Boston and New York. If I felt more like digging, I'd be curious about where each team was in the standings when each game occurred (I'm not), or even their final position on the year as a whole.

 

The averages below are the average of the average, not the average of all of the games. It could make for a slight difference -- I don't care. I did delete the three games that were supposed to have been played in Baltimore but were held in Tampa due to unrest. Rainouts / doubleheaders are not counted since they don't get separate attendance figure on that website.

 

Year	All	Bos	NYY
2021	9513	11184	8659
2020
2019	14734	17604	21523
2018	14258	18450	19083
2017	15670	19168	19726
2016	15878	18052	17195
2015	15403	17235	14208
2014	17857	20661	26095
2013	18645	16963	23465
2012	19255	19123	26416
2011	18878	23538	24365
2010	23024	25616	32293
2009	23147	25964	30972
2008	22370	33100	20457
2007	17149	27487	26847
Ave	17555	21010	22236

[selgy]

5 hours ago, Sec19Row53 said:

Thanks to https://www.baseball-reference.com/ and some general boredom, here are the Rays average attendances per year back to 2007, as well as their average when hosting Boston and New York. If I felt more like digging, I'd be curious about where each team was in the standings when each game occurred (I'm not), or even their final position on the year as a whole.

 

The averages below are the average of the average, not the average of all of the games. It could make for a slight difference -- I don't care. I did delete the three games that were supposed to have been played in Baltimore but were held in Tampa due to unrest. Rainouts / doubleheaders are not counted since they don't get separate attendance figure on that website.

 

Year	All	Bos	NYY
2021	9513	11184	8659
2020
2019	14734	17604	21523
2018	14258	18450	19083
2017	15670	19168	19726
2016	15878	18052	17195
2015	15403	17235	14208
2014	17857	20661	26095
2013	18645	16963	23465
2012	19255	19123	26416
2011	18878	23538	24365
2010	23024	25616	32293
2009	23147	25964	30972
2008	22370	33100	20457
2007	17149	27487	26847
Ave	17555	21010	22236

But Yankee and Red Sox fans will always tout that they pack the house and make up more than 50% of the fans. 

Wouldn't be the first time that Yankee or Red Sox fans would exaggerate something. 

[Sec19Row53]

6 hours ago, selgy said:

But Yankee and Red Sox fans will always tout that they pack the house and make up more than 50% of the fans. 

Wouldn't be the first time that Yankee or Red Sox fans would exaggerate something. 

And now if it comes up here, there's actual data to say [Lee Corso voice] Not so fast my friend [/Lee Corso voice]

Clearly, there is a bump with those two teams over the time I tracked. But, it wasn't universal (thus why it would be interesting to dive deeper into standings and the like). If someone wants the spreadsheet to do that, PM me, because I'm not going to do it.

[BBTV]

I think you'd want a column for the average of games that were not BOS/NYY, not the average, which would be a little higher due to the (not as high as expected) bump that those teams provide.  Would show a bigger difference, and maybe a slightly more accurate one.

[Sec19Row53]

19 minutes ago, BBTV said:

I think you'd want a column for the average of games that were not BOS/NYY, not the average, which would be a little higher due to the (not as high as expected) bump that those teams provide.  Would show a bigger difference, and maybe a slightly more accurate one.

I like that one. I'll do that.

[Sec19Row53]

32 minutes ago, BBTV said:

I think you'd want a column for the average of games that were not BOS/NYY, not the average, which would be a little higher due to the (not as high as expected) bump that those teams provide.  Would show a bigger difference, and maybe a slightly more accurate one.

Year	All	Bos	NYY	Not B/N
2021	9513	11184	8659	9365
2020
2019	14734	17604	21523	13261
2018	14258	18450	19083	12780
2017	15670	19168	19726	14573
2016	15878	18052	17195	15336
2015	15403	17235	14208	15330
2014	17857	20661	26095	16047
2013	18645	16963	23465	18197
2012	19255	19123	26416	18251
2011	18878	23538	24365	17429
2010	23024	25616	32293	21330
2009	23147	25964	30972	21627
2008	22370	33100	20457	21110
2007	17149	27487	26847	14287
Ave	17556	21010	22236	16352

[BBTV]

Yeah, that's a little more telling, as Boston/NY now show an additional 1k/2k increase over the non Boston/NY games.

 

Granted, I'd assume Boston/NYY draw additional crowds everywhere, so your next job is to do the same but for all teams, then compare the average Boston/NYY bump from the non TB teams to the bump in TB, and graph that out.  The inverse of the parabola would be the true truth-teller.

[dont care]

12 hours ago, selgy said:

But Yankee and Red Sox fans will always tout that they pack the house and make up more than 50% of the fans. 

Wouldn't be the first time that Yankee or Red Sox fans would exaggerate something. 

When attendance gets pumped up by 1/3 when they play, and seeing on television and at the games that the majority of fans are Red Sox and Yankees fans, yea it’s easy to say that.

[Sec19Row53]

1 hour ago, BBTV said:

Yeah, that's a little more telling, as Boston/NY now show an additional 1k/2k increase over the non Boston/NY games.

 

Granted, I'd assume Boston/NYY draw additional crowds everywhere, so your next job is to do the same but for all teams, then compare the average Boston/NYY bump from the non TB teams to the bump in TB, and graph that out.  The inverse of the parabola would be the true truth-teller.

Yeah - that's not happening

 

You aren't wrong, though.

[selgy]

43 minutes ago, dont care said:

When attendance gets pumped up by 1/3 when they play, and seeing on television and at the games that the majority of fans are Red Sox and Yankees fans, yea it’s easy to say that.

But they aren't the majority. They are louder. But there aren't more Yankee or Red Sox fans. I am guessing you are one of these northerners who keeps your allegiance to a former city. Then point to the Rays for not being able to build a fanbase? 

Am I correct?  

[BBTV]

9 minutes ago, Sec19Row53 said:

You aren't wrong, though.

 

I mean...

[dont care]

34 minutes ago, selgy said:

But they aren't the majority. They are louder. But there aren't more Yankee or Red Sox fans. I am guessing you are one of these northerners who keeps your allegiance to a former city. Then point to the Rays for not being able to build a fanbase? 

Am I correct?  

Wrong, but you can keep trying to inaccurately stereotype me to try to distract from the facts that show the rays aren’t supported by their own city.

[Bmac]

I feel like a major factor in the argument against Tampa is fans in other markets who would kill for a team as successful as the Rays, or for an MLB team at all.

 

If you're in Montreal/Portland/Nashville/etc and see a team make World Series runs this often yet fail to attract fans (no matter the other factors), no doubt you're going to be upset. Surely your market would be better than this mess, right?

 

If you're in a non-major league, Midwestern market like myself, it's hard not to look at the amount of support for college sports even when the teams are bad, and compare that to a World Series MLB team with poor attendance. We don't have public transit. We'll drive an hour to see a terrible football team or walk to hockey games in the snow even when the team is bad. Or drive 45 minutes to watch the local Minor League Baseball team.  So seeing any major market fail to support an incredibly successful team (relatively speaking) is hard to comprehend. I realize the Trop is more than just "tough to get to." It's downright impossible. But where I'm from, you find a way to support your teams.

 

And that's not me trying to sound better than anyone, that's me echoing the fact that even when the World Series was played in town, fans didn't even try. That's inexcusable. If we can go through the trouble we do to watch college sports, y'all can put in more effort to get to the damn World Series. At this point I'm not even asking Rays fans to make the awful trek for all 81 home games. Don't show up during the regular season for all I care. But when the World Series comes around, that place should be sold out. Even if you have to swim there.

 

And that's why I don't think Major League Baseball will ever work in the Tampa Bay market. There just don't seem to be enough fans interested in the product, regardless of the stadium situation.

[5ss22]

9 hours ago, Bmac said:

And that's not me trying to sound better than anyone, that's me echoing the fact that even when the World Series was played in town, fans didn't even try. That's inexcusable. If we can go through the trouble we do to watch college sports, y'all can put in more effort to get to the damn World Series. At this point I'm not even asking Rays fans to make the awful trek for all 81 home games. Don't show up during the regular season for all I care. But when the World Series comes around, that place should be sold out. Even if you have to swim there.

This entire discussion has been about regular season attendance. Tampa Bay has hosted two World Series games ever, and they were both sold out.

[gosioux76]

2 hours ago, 5ss22 said:

This entire discussion has been about regular season attendance. Tampa Bay has hosted two World Series games ever, and they were both sold out.

 

That's true, but don't let that overshadow @Bmac's bigger point, which is a great one. 

 

11 hours ago, Bmac said:

If you're in a non-major league, Midwestern market like myself, it's hard not to look at the amount of support for college sports even when the teams are bad, and compare that to a World Series MLB team with poor attendance. We don't have public transit. We'll drive an hour to see a terrible football team or walk to hockey games in the snow even when the team is bad. Or drive 45 minutes to watch the local Minor League Baseball team.  So seeing any major market fail to support an incredibly successful team (relatively speaking) is hard to comprehend. I realize the Trop is more than just "tough to get to." It's downright impossible. But where I'm from, you find a way to support your teams.

 

This entire situation is maddening to any city coveting its own franchise, or to those fans who'll do whatever it takes to support their team. There's no discounting the fact that a terrible stadium in an even worse location is a major factor in this situation.  But it's really hard for outsiders to avoid reaching the conclusion that there's plenty of apathy at play here, too. 

 

I guess before this debate, I never really looked much at MLB attendance figures. But I can easily see where you can get the idea of Florida being a terrible market for a full-time MLB club. 

 

Tampa was in the bottom three for MLB attendance in 17 of the past 20 seasons (excluding 2020), including seven seasons in which it was dead last. Its only outliers came in the years following its 2008 World Series appearance (2008-2010), and even then they never reached above No. 22 out of 30 teams. 

 

During that same time, Florida/Miami was in the bottom three 16 out of 20 seasons — six of those seasons at No. 30,  including the last three. The organization was No. 26, in 2004, the year after they won the World Series. Of the four years they weren't in the bottom three, they reached higher than No. 26 only once, in 2012, reaching No. 18 the year their new stadium opened.

 

The numbers might have been worse during parts of that stretch had Montreal not had a lock on that bottom spot for several years. 

[selgy]

19 hours ago, dont care said:

Wrong, but you can keep trying to inaccurately stereotype me to try to distract from the facts that show the rays aren’t supported by their own city.

Then why did you never want to support the local team? Curious?