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Official BCS Bowl Countdown Thread


Saint Zephyr III

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With the announcements coming tomorrow and a couple of games that could throw these bowls into a loop, we can at least look and observe how they'll align, why they should be like it, why they wouldn't.

If everything goes with the favorites today (USC beats UCLA, Florida wins moderately, Wake Forest wins, Oklahoma wins, West Virginia and Louisville wins), this is how it'll most likely set out:

Championship = USC Vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl = LSU Vs. Michigan, as I don't see another Michigan/ND matchup happening again.

Sugar Bowl = Florida Vs. Notre Dame, as Notre Dame has done just enough and they also have the "two-team only" deal for conferences, blocking out Arkansas or Wisconsin.

Fiesta Bowl = Oklahoma Vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl = Wake Forest Vs. Louisville, since Rutgers would have two conference losses, Louisville would be able to hop over.

Now, let's look at the scenarios:

If USC barely beats UCLA:

1. USC will still have just enough to pass Michigan.

2. USC will barely be under Michigan, setting up the Michigan/OSU matchup, leading to this:

Rose Bowl = USC Vs. LSU

If USC loses to UCLA:

1. As mentioned beore, they would still fill the Pac-10 spot in the Rose Bowl, it's just everything else that goes crazy. However, if Florida handedly beats Arkansas, then they can hop over both USC and Michigan, leading to these matchups:

Rose Bowl: USC Vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl: LSU Vs. Notre Dame (It'd be strange to have an ACC or Big East team; LSU to the Sugar)

If Florida handlely beat Arkansas:

1. Unless USC struggles against UCLA, that means they may barely, barely pass Michigan and USC, as mentioned before.

If Arkansas beats Florida:

1. Florida blows its chance for a championship, and Arkansas goes to the SEC.

2. However, let's say they barely win, like by one point. What could happen is that Arkansas goes as the SEC Champion, but Florida could still muster an at-large bid, replacing LSU at either the Orange or Sugar Bowl.

If Florida and USC both lose:

1. Michigan is guaranteed to the championship, setting up a rematch.

If Wake Forest wins:

1. Simple, a straight shot to the Orange Bowl. And Georgia Tech will most likely go to the Gator Bowl.

If Georigia Tech beats Wake Forest:

1. No true ramifications, just Georgia Tech goes instead of Wake Forest.

If Oklahoma wins:

1. Trip to the Fiesta Bowl against undefeated Boise State.

If Nebraska ends up winning:

1. Nebraska goes ahead to the Fiesta Bowl.

2. A very, very, very slim chance, but if Nebraska barely beats Oklahoma, that means they could still remain ahead of Notre Dame, in which the BCS could actually pick Oklahoma as another at-large bid, going to the Sugar Bowl depending.

If West Virginia wins and Louisville wins:

1. Louisville will be able to get the Big East bid with only one conference loss, going on to the Orange Bowl.

If West Virgina wins, but Louisville loses:

1. Things get...weird. West Virgina beat Rutgers, Rutgers beat Louisville, Louisville beat West Virginia. I'm not sure what the Big East would do in this situation.

If West Virgina loses, but Louisville wins:

1. Rutgers would beat the tiebreaker over Louisville and head for the Orange Bowl, not to mention that Texas would end up in the Alamo Bowl, as West Virginia would end up in the Gator Bowl over a Big 12 team.

If West Virginia loses, Louisville wins dominatingly, USC bombs against UCLA, Florida loses to Arkansas, Oklahoma barely wins:

1. Then, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe Louisville could to the championship.

Phew. I think I covered everything I could...if I'm missing something, tell me. But now we can only wait and sit back and see how everything aligns.

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If West Virginia loses, Louisville wins dominatingly, USC bombs against UCLA, Florida loses to Arkansas, Oklahoma barely wins:

1. Then, maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe Louisville could to the championship.

Phew. I think I covered everything I could...if I'm missing something, tell me. But now we can only wait and sit back and see how everything aligns.

Wouldn't it be better if West Virginia won? Then Louisville would be the Big East Champions and thus giving them a better case to be in the Championship. If West Virginia losses Rutgers becomes the Big East Champion and then that would leave Louisville hoping to get in the National Championship game despite not winning their conference. That would open the door more to a Ohio State- Michigan rematch.

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