National Championship Controversy

[whitedawg22]

I was just thinking about an interesting scenario for the NCAA bowl games. Suppose the following happened:

Florida beats OSU

Michigan beats USC

Notre Dame beats LSU

Wisconsin beats Arkansas

Nebraska beats Auburn

In that case, a 1-loss Florida team, a 1-loss Michigan team, and a 1-loss Ohio State team would be the primary teams with a claim to the national championship.

Florida's best win, obviously, would be over a 12-1 OSU team, and their only loss would be on the road to a 10-3 Auburn team. However, their second-best win would then by by one point over a 3-loss or 4-loss Tennessee team, and their schedule strength would take a major hit with LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn losing at least their third game of the year each.

Ohio State's best win would be over a one-loss Michigan team, by three points at home. Their second-best win would be against a 3-loss or 4-loss Texas team, with no other win even close.

Michigan's best wins would be by 14 over a 12-1, top 5 ranked Wisconsin team, or by 26 on the road over an 11-2 Notre Dame team. Meanwhile, their only loss would be on the road to a then-undefeated Ohio State team by 3 points.

I realize that at least one national championship organization automatically gives its trophy to the winner of the Fiesta Bowl, which is Florida in this case. But using this analysis, it appears that Michigan would have completed the strongest season of the three contenders. Considering that Michigan was ranked ahead of Florida until the final week of the season until the voters decided to rig a Florida-OSU matchup, could there be a possibility for a split national championship, similar to the situation involving LSU and USC a few years ago?

[jkrdevil]

I would think not because most people will se it as Florida beating Ohio State who beat Michigan. In that case Floria would be number 1.

[officeglenn]

You know, I gotta think that, with Florida and Ohio State squaring off in what's being billed as the National Championship Game, whoever wins that game is the national champion, period, no questions asked.

But then again, people will always ask questions.

[Jigga]

Florida beating THE OSU would more than counter losses by Arkansas, LSU, and Auburn. It all goes back to this, Michigan's biggest claim to the title would be only losing by three to THE OSU.

Simply, if Florida beats THE OSU, who cares what Michigan does since Michigan lost to THE OSU!

[LMU]

You know, I gotta think that, with Florida and Ohio State squaring off in what's being billed as the National Championship Game, whoever wins that game is the national champion, period, no questions asked.

But then again, people will always ask questions.

The problem with that is that the AP is not contractually obligated to vote for the winner of the BCS title. That's why LSU and USC split the 2003 title. So, if OSU is thoroughly embarrassed, and Michigan wipes the floor with USC, we could be in for another split. Not that I see that happening, but it's something to consider.

[jkrdevil]

You know, I gotta think that, with Florida and Ohio State squaring off in what's being billed as the National Championship Game, whoever wins that game is the national champion, period, no questions asked.

But then again, people will always ask questions.

The problem with that is that the AP is not contractually obligated to vote for the winner of the BCS title. That's why LSU and USC split the 2003 title. So, if OSU is thoroughly embarrassed, and Michigan wipes the floor with USC, we could be in for another split. Not that I see that happening, but it's something to consider.

It doesn't matter though because if Florida throughly emabarrases OSU then they will be voted number 1 regardless of contractual obligations.

Think of it like this, If A>B and B>C then A>C.

Thus in this scenario Florida>Ohio State, and Ohia State>Michigan, then Florida>Michigan.

[whitedawg22]

It doesn't matter though because if Florida throughly emabarrases OSU then they will be voted number 1 regardless of contractual obligations.

Think of it like this, If A>B and B>C then A>C.

Thus in this scenario Florida>Ohio State, and Ohia State>Michigan, then Florida>Michigan.

The A>B, B>C way of thinking about things is a logical way of thinking about the situation (not necessarily "correct", since there is no single correct way of thinking about it, but logical).

However, there are still a few problems with that logic. First, that hasn't always held true in the past. There are any number of past scenarios (Florida State over Miami, Nebraska over Colorado, Notre Dame over Florida State, etc.) that have run contrary to that logic. Second, when all the teams involved have one loss, a more logical way of thinking about the situation is to look at a team's best WINS, not their losses. In the scenario I outlined, Florida's best wins would be over a great Ohio State team, and mediocre 3-loss Arkansas or LSU teams. Ohio State would only have one good win, over Michigan. And Michigan would have one win over a top-5 team and another over a top-10 team, a better slate of wins than either of the other two teams.

Throw in the caveat that Florida was elevated to #2 mostly because the voters wanted to avoid a rematch (not because they unanimously thought they were a better team than Michigan), and the situation is especially cloudy. It's fair to say that OSU won't win the championship if they lose to Florida, and if they do so, Ohio State and Wisconsin should be considered fairly even teams, since both only lost to a 1-loss team. Thus, Florida and Michigan would have equally impressive victories, and Michigan also slaughtered Notre Dame on the road, which is much more impressive than anything else Florida has done. In a two-team race between Florida and Michigan, looking at their respective slates of wins and how impressively they won, Michigan has looked like a much better team.

Do I think it WILL happen? Probably not. But it deserves some consideration.

[NJTank]

Florida beat Ohio State they will be National Champs hands down of course they dont have a snow balls chance

[Epiphanic]

You forgot the people (like me) thinking if that happens and Boise State beats Oklahoma that they would be the national champions by way of the bagel in the loss column.

[winghaz]

Let's make it even more interesting. Let's say this whole scenario is played out, but Florida beats Ohio State on something similar to what happened when Oregon beat Oklahoma. Then what?

And by the way, you gotta love the AP poll. Independent. Intriguing. And, best of all, something that can throw the BCS out of whack.

[whitedawg22]

Taking a step back, I wonder if people will ever realize that the best thing that can happen to the BCS is controversy? It gets people talking about college football and debating the teams and the system. In my opinion, this stuff is great- closure is overrated.

[slightly shotgunned]

Taking a step back, I wonder if people will ever realize that the best thing that can happen to the BCS is controversy? It gets people talking about college football and debating the teams and the system. In my opinion, this stuff is great- closure is overrated.

controversy is great, i agree.

i'd just much rather have my controversy be about who was the team left out of the playoffs (as with d1 basketball) than who gets to play in the national title game...that's not closure, that's true competition imo.