KennyRock Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Okay, I have the highest likelihood of finishing among the Top 10 (53.91%), but the sixth highest likelihood of winning outright (6.25%). Is it just me, or does that not seem to make sense to anyone else?I see how that'd be confusing, but that could make sense. He said he simulated the outcomes of the remaining games a ton of times, right? Enough of your picks must have jived with his results to give you the best shot at the top 10, but maybe his simulation has a team you DIDN'T pick to get to the Superbowl getting to the game more often than not. Let's say you picked Indy and Green Bay, but what if his sim has New England getting to the Superbowl in 70% of the sims? Even though you may have gotten certain games right more often that not(Indy beating San Diego, Green Bay beating Seattle, etc) I'd say getting one of the 2 Superbowl teams different from the majority of the sims could affects your winning outright percentage. And if you notice, nwtrailtrekker has a completely different 2 teams getting to the Superbowl, I wonder if the simulations had New England and Dallas way more often than Indy and Green Bay? New York Jets |3-3| First, AFC EastNew York Mets |74-88| Fourth, NL EastNew York Islanders|34-37-11| Fifth, Atlantic DivisionNew Orleans Hornets |21-45| Third, Southwest Division Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 OK, now I have to step in.Right now, there are 128 possibilities left. Seven games, two possibilities of a winner in each, so 2^7 = 128.To give an idea of simple percentages at the moment:Chance of any team winning the Super Bowl: 12.5%Chance of any Super Bowl matchup: 6.25%Chance of any team beating any other team in the Super Bowl: 3.13%What has happened is that some people have picks where they are practically win or bust - either they'll win the pool or they won't place. Others might have a better chance to place, but not much of a chance to win - I've seen cases where the leader going into the Super Bowl had no chance of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 Eight people are still perfect as of now.http://netquiddler.tripod.com/Pool.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 Now six perfect entries left. (Same link works as in above post)All perfect entries also have Indianapolis and Dallas winning. That said, if Indianapolis and Dallas both win, we will have at least one perfect entry going into the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerbreadmann Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 Damn, I'm screwed now. How was I supposed to know that there would be a snowstorm in GB and that Gates would go down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mac the Knife Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 Dems da breaks.So far I'm pretty pleased with my performance. 5-1 through six playoff games and I still have a shot at getting the two SB finalists right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 No perfects left, stats are updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerbreadmann Posted January 13, 2008 Share Posted January 13, 2008 No perfects left, stats are updated.Who else picked San Diego? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 13, 2008 Author Share Posted January 13, 2008 No perfects left, stats are updated.Who else picked San Diego?My records show it to be LMUpepbander, AstroBull21, ROCHitman, BucsBoy02, PeytonManningRocks, Billy B, and averyj, along with yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mac the Knife Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 Dems da breaks.So far I'm pretty pleased with my performance. 5-1 through six playoff games and I still have a shot at getting the two SB finalists right.Damn. I really sucked on the gas pipe Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sport Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 My champion was elimated yesterday. Game over for me. This probably also means we'll get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyRock Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 My champion was elimated yesterday. Game over for me. This probably also means we'll get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI.My entire Superbowl matchup was eliminated, heh. I went pretty heavy on the favorites this weekend, my only upset special was Jacksonville over New England. I shoulda seen the Giants' win coming but what really blew me away(and it seems a few others too) was the San Diego upset of Indy. Talk about a bracket buster. New York Jets |3-3| First, AFC EastNew York Mets |74-88| Fourth, NL EastNew York Islanders|34-37-11| Fifth, Atlantic DivisionNew Orleans Hornets |21-45| Third, Southwest Division Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCBoy Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Do we have a winner? Or will the SB decide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted January 21, 2008 Author Share Posted January 21, 2008 Do we have a winner? Or will the SB decide?The Super Bowl will decide... but not in the way you think. Full standings posted tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMU Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 We have a winner yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WJMorris3 Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Winner and final standings are here.http://netquiddler.tripod.com/Tourney_Tracker_Reports.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerbreadmann Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!1st place tie... I know I lost the tiebreak, but that's one hell of a victory for me, especially with this wacko postseason.Congrats LMU... Can I get a sig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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