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Division 1 College Conference Realignment


dfwabel
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Here's my rough prediction.

Clemson/Florida St to Big 12

Georgia Tech/Virginia to Big 10

Virginia Tech/NC State to SEC

Now, from an ACC standpoint, they're best option is to immediately add Cincinnati and UConn (both discussed before adding Louisville) and maybe South Florida just to finish off the relevancy of the Big East and to get membership up. Next get Navy and Army. Now you've set up a good chance at making Notre Dame happy and getting them to become a full member. And assuming, a big hypothetical, they do, they'd be fine at 14. Put ND and BC in a division (a traditional game for ND) so they play every year. Army-Navy in a division so they're big game becomes and annual ACC conference game (more money for the conference?). Make that the opposite division for ND and it allows them to keep Navy as a permanent cross-division rival (or put all 4 schools in the same division I guess). Then, with 4 non-Conf games available, 3 can be taken up by USC, Michigan and Michigan St.

The ACC's key to success isn't fending off the other conferences. It's making Notre Dame as happy as possible.

One big problem with that is that Army-Navy is always held after the conference championships. If they both joined the ACC, that game would have to come before the ACCCG due to a possible impact on who plays in the game.

That hasn't always been the case though. In fact, I'm pretty sure that practice only began during the last decade.
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Completely off-logical discussion here, but if the SEC did expand to North Carolina and Virginia, for purely aestethic reasons I'd want the SEC to add UNC and Virginia Tech, for their color schemes (and unusual nicknames). Texas A&M's addition provided ANOTHER maroon and white team in the SEC West, while Missouri added a third Tigers to the whole of the SEC. I am heartened that Mizzou seems to be leaning more to the black and "athletic gold" (yellow) scheme rather than black and old gold, already covered by Vandy.... Duke would repeat Kentucky's blue and white, while NC State would repeat Georgia's black and red (minus the silver britches). :suspect:

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The most consistent NC/VA rumors have VaTech and NCSU to the SEC. I guess that stems from people speculating that Duke and UNC won't want to be split up.

NC State wouldn't repeat the red and black, at least not in football, as they have continually de-emphasized it in their football uniforms recently.

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The most consistent NC/VA rumors have VaTech and NCSU to the SEC. I guess that stems from people speculating that Duke and UNC won't want to be split up.

NC State wouldn't repeat the red and black, at least not in football, as they have continually de-emphasized it in their football uniforms recently.

Virginia Tech and NC State to the SEC aren't so much rumors as people saying they are the best fits.

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What about this? It hasn't been talked about because it's not exactly likely, but:

Notre Dame to the SEC?

There is no way, no how Notre Dame joins the SEC. If they favored the Big East and the ACC over the B16 TEN, do you honestly think they would consider the SEC? Seems like suicide, especially after the Tide roll all over them (and I'm rooting for ND).

Anyway, when it comes to the B16 TEN, has is pretty much been stated or determined that the they are strictly expandind down the east coast? I am assuming that Virginia is a lock at this point, as is Virginia Tech to the SEC. But is it a foregone conclusion that #16 is either Georgia Tech or North Carolina? I feel like Kansas would make more sense, not in terms of households = dollars, but its contiguious, its a member of the AAU, the basketball following speaks for itself, and it has 50,000+ football stadium.

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Anyway, when it comes to the B16 TEN, has is pretty much been stated or determined that the they are strictly expandind down the east coast? I am assuming that Virginia is a lock at this point, as is Virginia Tech to the SEC. But is it a foregone conclusion that #16 is either Georgia Tech or North Carolina? I feel like Kansas would make more sense, not in terms of households = dollars, but its contiguious, its a member of the AAU, the basketball following speaks for itself, and it has 50,000+ football stadium.

I'm not sure what Kansas gains the Big Ten in the area that matters most, which is TV markets and overall state population. Here's a quick thumbnail sketch of what the B16 would get if they added each of the rumored schools:

Virginia - share of DC TV market (#9 TV market), Norfolk/Virginia Beach (#43), Richmond (#58) | Population: 8.1 million

UNC- Charlotte (#24), Raleigh/Durham (#27) | Population: 9.7 million

Georgia Tech - Atlanta (#8), Savannah (#96) | Population: 9.8 million

Kansas - share of KC TV market (#31), Wichita (#69) | Population: 2.9 million

By those metrics alone, any of the 3 ACC schools would be a better 'get' than Kansas.

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Anyway, when it comes to the B16 TEN, has is pretty much been stated or determined that the they are strictly expandind down the east coast? I am assuming that Virginia is a lock at this point, as is Virginia Tech to the SEC. But is it a foregone conclusion that #16 is either Georgia Tech or North Carolina? I feel like Kansas would make more sense, not in terms of households = dollars, but its contiguious, its a member of the AAU, the basketball following speaks for itself, and it has 50,000+ football stadium.

I'm not sure what Kansas gains the Big Ten in the area that matters most, which is TV markets and overall state population. Here's a quick thumbnail sketch of what the B16 would get if they added each of the rumored schools:

Virginia - share of DC TV market (#9 TV market), Norfolk/Virginia Beach (#43), Richmond (#58) | Population: 8.1 million

UNC- Charlotte (#24), Raleigh/Durham (#27) | Population: 9.7 million

Georgia Tech - Atlanta (#8), Savannah (#96) | Population: 9.8 million

Kansas - share of KC TV market (#31), Wichita (#69) | Population: 2.9 million

By those metrics alone, any of the 3 ACC schools would be a better 'get' than Kansas.

I was thinking along the lines of cornering the Missouri market since they didn't add Mizzou. Also, the Kansas basketball team has such a national presence, that it could make up for the lack of State population.

Something that I think may be understated it North Carolina's football program is constantly under investigations or subject to sanctions. With Penn State and Ohio State already in trouble with the NCAA, would they want to add another program that is littered with questions?

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I was thinking along the lines of cornering the Missouri market since they didn't add Mizzou. Also, the Kansas basketball team has such a national presence, that it could make up for the lack of State population.

Yeah, I could see that...but first, adding Kansas doesn't allow the B16 to add the BTN to Missouri cable/satellite subscribers at the higher in-state rate. So any gains there are mitigated. Kansas basketball's renown would be a good addition to bolster the B16's hoops side, but then none of these changes in the college landscape are really about basketball. It's football and the TV cash that comes with it that is driving the B16 here.

Something that I think may be understated it North Carolina's football program is constantly under investigations or subject to sanctions. With Penn State and Ohio State already in trouble with the NCAA, would they want to add another program that is littered with questions?

True, and that may be why we have heard GT over UNC to the B16 lately. On the other hand...a.) does the conference really care all that much about what the NCAA thinks of them, and b.) in the long-run, wouldn't UNC's cache and prestige mean much more to the conference than adding anyone else?

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I was thinking along the lines of cornering the Missouri market since they didn't add Mizzou. Also, the Kansas basketball team has such a national presence, that it could make up for the lack of State population.

Yeah, I could see that...but first, adding Kansas doesn't allow the B16 to add the BTN to Missouri cable/satellite subscribers at the higher in-state rate. So any gains there are mitigated. Kansas basketball's renown would be a good addition to bolster the B16's hoops side, but then none of these changes in the college landscape are really about basketball. It's football and the TV cash that comes with it that is driving the B16 here.

Something that I think may be understated it North Carolina's football program is constantly under investigations or subject to sanctions. With Penn State and Ohio State already in trouble with the NCAA, would they want to add another program that is littered with questions?

True, and that may be why we have heard GT over UNC to the B16 lately. On the other hand...a.) does the conference really care all that much about what the NCAA thinks of them, and b.) in the long-run, wouldn't UNC's cache and prestige mean much more to the conference than adding anyone else?

Yes, I think North Carolina is the best fit (besides Missouri)... they fit all the criteria. They have a large access to households, they are a member of the AAU, once they add Virginia, they will be in the contiguous footprint, they have a legendary basketball program with a blossoming football program... but they tend to get in trouble with the NCAA. That's the only draw back I see, and I'm not sure if its something they will over look. Not when 2 of the crown jewels in the conference are on bowl bands this year.

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They get in trouble with the NCAA mainly because of football. They flip flop between wanting to play with the big boys and not and when they do try, they have no idea how to cover their tracks like the big boys.

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What about this? It hasn't been talked about because it's not exactly likely, but:

Notre Dame to the SEC?

There is no way, no how Notre Dame joins the SEC. If they favored the Big East and the ACC over the B16 TEN, do you honestly think they would consider the SEC? Seems like suicide, especially after the Tide roll all over them (and I'm rooting for ND).

Anyway, when it comes to the B16 TEN, has is pretty much been stated or determined that the they are strictly expandind down the east coast? I am assuming that Virginia is a lock at this point, as is Virginia Tech to the SEC. But is it a foregone conclusion that #16 is either Georgia Tech or North Carolina? I feel like Kansas would make more sense, not in terms of households = dollars, but its contiguious, its a member of the AAU, the basketball following speaks for itself, and it has 50,000+ football stadium.

There is no flippin' point to adding Virginia if it's not a bridge to another East Coast school, and Kansas is not coming because basketball is irrelevant and the football team is derelict and hired the wrong fat man.

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Hypothetical question here: What if this year's Army-Navy game would have had an impact on the final BCS standings to determine who's going to BCS bowls? Do they postpone the BCS selection or simply ignore Army-Navy in the standings?

Here's my rough prediction.

Clemson/Florida St to Big 12

Georgia Tech/Virginia to Big 10

Virginia Tech/NC State to SEC

Now, from an ACC standpoint, they're best option is to immediately add Cincinnati and UConn (both discussed before adding Louisville) and maybe South Florida just to finish off the relevancy of the Big East and to get membership up. Next get Navy and Army. Now you've set up a good chance at making Notre Dame happy and getting them to become a full member. And assuming, a big hypothetical, they do, they'd be fine at 14. Put ND and BC in a division (a traditional game for ND) so they play every year. Army-Navy in a division so they're big game becomes and annual ACC conference game (more money for the conference?). Make that the opposite division for ND and it allows them to keep Navy as a permanent cross-division rival (or put all 4 schools in the same division I guess). Then, with 4 non-Conf games available, 3 can be taken up by USC, Michigan and Michigan St.

The ACC's key to success isn't fending off the other conferences. It's making Notre Dame as happy as possible.

One big problem with that is that Army-Navy is always held after the conference championships. If they both joined the ACC, that game would have to come before the ACCCG due to a possible impact on who plays in the game.

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