dfwabel

Division 1 College Conference Realignment

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13 minutes ago, dfwabel said:

But their upcoming issue is twofold. How many subscribers can they realistically expect come 2019 and how much will ESPN load up basketball on the channel to force the conference's three eastern states (NY, PA, MA) to add the channel on the basic tier.

 

Clay made some good points, but forgot about the importance of hoops for the northeast members.

The success and longevity of the ACC Network is much related to the digital platform that launches this year. If it what I expect it to be, a Netflix/Watch ESPN type service with live events and some original programming, it will most likely be a hit, and if (when) the cable bubble bursts, outlast the cable network. In terms of the linear platform, I believe there is enough of a widespread alumni network and fan base across the conference to be able to gain a healthy number of subscribers, especially if you factor ND into the equation. I figure, if the PAC 12 Network can get its 7 networks across the country without being attached to a major sports provider, ESPN should be able the do the same with the ACC Network, much like the SEC Network.

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I get how the ACC's deal ensures no teams will leave...but I don't see how it ensures no new teams will join...

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7 minutes ago, MBurmy said:

I get how the ACC's deal ensures no teams will leave...but I don't see how it ensures no new teams will join...

 

I don't think you're going to sell looting the Bill the Cat Conference to Tobacco Road.

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Read the column in the paper today about USF potentially going to the Big12. I'm way out of date with college football knowledge, how likely is it that they make that change?

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12 hours ago, twi said:

Read the column in the paper today about USF potentially going to the Big12. I'm way out of date with college football knowledge, how likely is it that they make that change?

I'd say they are somewhat of a longshot. They do have the Florida pipeline working in their favor, along with UCF. However, schools like BYU, Houston, Cincinnati are probably much more attractive to the Big 12.

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UCF and USF also hold 2 large media markets not in the Big XII footprint...Tampa is #11 and Orlando is #19 (per link below).  Houston is larger, but is already in the Texas footprint.

 

http://www.newsgeneration.com/broadcast-resources/top-100-radio-markets/

 

I say if the conference expands to 12 they're out (probably Cincy and either Houston or BYU), but if they go 14 they're in with UCF as a tandem.

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23 minutes ago, AstroBull21 said:

UCF and USF also hold 2 large media markets not in the Big XII footprint...Tampa is #11 and Orlando is #19 (per link below).  Houston is larger, but is already in the Texas footprint..

 

http://www.newsgeneration.com/broadcast-resources/top-100-radio-markets/

 

I say if the conference expands to 12 they're out (probably Cincy and either Houston or BYU), but if they go 14 they're in with UCF as a tandem.

The size of the TV markets really don't matters as only BYU moves the proverbial needle.

 

The Big XII will take the lowest bidders so the existing ten members get more money.  Neither the MWC nor The American distributes more than $11M total to an individual member school, so taking just say $11M/year for football and the a normal pool of CFP and NCAA distributions will still be a net positive for any G5 candidate.  

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On 7/23/2016 at 7:28 PM, BlackBolt3 said:

The success and longevity of the ACC Network is much related to the digital platform that launches this year. If it what I expect it to be, a Netflix/Watch ESPN type service with live events and some original programming, it will most likely be a hit, and if (when) the cable bubble bursts, outlast the cable network. In terms of the linear platform, I believe there is enough of a widespread alumni network and fan base across the conference to be able to gain a healthy number of subscribers, especially if you factor ND into the equation. I figure, if the PAC 12 Network can get its 7 networks across the country without being attached to a major sports provider, ESPN should be able the do the same with the ACC Network, much like the SEC Network.

The digital platform is going to be ESPN3/WatchESPN content rebranded with the ACC Network logo. No different than what's already on those platforms. Would be shocked if there is any original programming.

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10 hours ago, dfwabel said:

The size of the TV markets really don't matters as only BYU moves the proverbial needle.

 

The Big XII will take the lowest bidders so the existing ten members get more money.  Neither the MWC nor The American distributes more than $11M total to an individual member school, so taking just say $11M/year for football and the a normal pool of CFP and NCAA distributions will still be a net positive for any G5 candidate.  

 

Exactly. This move is about self-preservation and really, preserving Texas and Oklahoma's path to the playoffs. Let's be honest, there are no nationally-relevant teams that want into the Big XII (sorry Snyder) and by adding little fish the existing teams just cut their pie smaller.

 

This isn't Delaney scooping up Nebraska or the SEC courting College Station. This is purely about preserving the Texlahoma kingdom and making the conference relevant in the big money playoff world.  Just look at how hard they backpedaled on all that "one true champion" crap when they tried to shoehorn in BOTH Baylor and TCU. It bit them in the ass and they realized that 12+ is the magic number for entry.

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On 07/25/2016 at 9:43 PM, pianoknight said:

 

Exactly. This move is about self-preservation and really, preserving Texas and Oklahoma's path to the playoffs. Let's be honest, there are no nationally-relevant teams that want into the Big XII (sorry Snyder) and by adding little fish the existing teams just cut their pie smaller.

 

This isn't Delaney scooping up Nebraska or the SEC courting College Station. This is purely about preserving the Texlahoma kingdom and making the conference relevant in the big money playoff world.  Just look at how hard they backpedaled on all that "one true champion" crap when they tried to shoehorn in BOTH Baylor and TCU. It bit them in the ass and they realized that 12+ is the magic number for entry.

No conference has bungled more than the Big XII (Dan Beebe or not). 

Heck, Beebe wasn't in charge when Louisville was rejected, Chuck Neinas was the Commissioner who apparently let WV senator Rockerfeller even overpower Mitch McConnell.

 

Plus, Neinas' wife is Patricia Pacey, who a runs an economics consulting firm gave Cincinnati a free analysis too.

 

Big XII found the loophole in their contracts with ESPN and FOX, so they will use it to the great financial benefit of the existing ten schools and NOT for any additions. ESPN/FOX must pay the conference $25M for each new school, but the new schools will never see a full share under this contract. 

 

That's how the Big XII membership is getting over.

 

Big XII is playing companies as much as they are playing the respective universities.

Memphis (FedEx)

BYU is the LDS Church

Cincinnati (Macy's, Kroger, possibly P&G)

Houston (Landry's Restaurants aka Tilman Fertitta; not his third cousins..the former UFC and current UNLV donors)

UCF's athletic benefactor is local beer distributor, Wayne Densch.

USF's benefactors are car dealers.

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I just figured the Florida schools' value should be graded by recruiting potential as much as tv ratings.

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4 hours ago, 2001mark said:

I just figured the Florida schools' value should be graded by recruiting potential as much as tv ratings.

Folks dont watch UCF and USF on TV and those kids/families know TV is simple to see their kid. 

While both are housed in top 20 markets with emerging alumni bases neither command their markets.  Florida and FSU do and always will.

 

USF also has an academic scandal ready to ignite I under hoops too.

Edited by dfwabel
USF cager academics

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UCF and USF face an uphill battle into the Power 5, IMO.

 

  • The SEC has been clear they don't want to expand within their existing footprint, so UCF/USC bring nothing that the Gators haven't given them already.  The SEC would likely chase after states/regions like North Carolina, Virginia or Oklahoma before doubling down on lesser Florida teams.
  • The ACC might be slightly more favorable, but they would always be 3rd and 4th fiddle to the Canes and Noles.  
  • The Big Ten doesn't want 'em, academically or otherwise
  • The Pac-12 makes absolutely zero sense.  Nothing like a "Pacific" conference having schools who border the Atlantic and Gulf.

 

The Big XII is their only legitimate option.

 

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I still dont want the Big XII to expand. Nobody they could add would make the conference better money wise. I also think it would be just fine if they stuck with 10 teams and a championship game. Althlugh I dont like the championship game either since it could harm a teams chances just as much as it could help them. Although if the conference blew up i could see KU in the Big XII and K-State in the AAC. Which I would be happy with so whatever...

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BYU and Houston are the only choices that make sense. BYU is always tough and have the stadium. Houston has been tough in the last decade and would never have had down years if it were in the big xii. They loss art briles and RG3 with him then Kevin sumlin...those two guys especially art would not have left if Houston was in a P5. TCU got lucky that their coach didn't split for big money and stayed the course till they got back to a big conference. The more Cougars the better I've always said! 

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The question remains do they go to 12 or 14 like the other big boys.

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I say 12 personally. With the Pac 12 at 12 teams, at least the Big 12 would have enough members to have a championship game.

 

Not to mention that the name would finally make sense!

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39 minutes ago, AstroBull21 said:

The question remains do they go to 12 or 14 like the other big boys.

Both ESPN and FOX are on to their cash grab scheme. They may fight it out with the conference.

 

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2016/08/01/Media/Big-12-TV.aspx?

 

Quote

If the networks, both of which have encountered some financial challenges in the last year with cutbacks and subscriber losses, decided to staunchly challenge the contracts, they could simply not pay the increases and force the conference to take them to court. ESPN and Fox would argue that the move to expand and charge the TV networks more money does not reflect the spirit of the original deals, which were signed four years ago. The conference, of course, can fall back on its contracts, which spell out pro rata increases.

Another option would be to go along with the increases now and not support the Big 12 in 2025, when the grant of rights and the TV deals expire.

 

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