2010 MLB Season Thread

[JayJaxon]

I'm not even sure why this is an argument. Felix is clearly the better pitcher. All of the numbers are there with the lone black mark being wins. But that is not enough to swing it in favor of CC.

[The Six]

The people arguing for Felix have come up with about 20 different reasons why he should win it. People against him seem to have only one. I haven't seen anyone against Felix directly refute his numbers or explain why being on a bad team should disqualify him.

[BaltimoreFan]

I know you hate WAR (which is far more than a year old) Baltimore, but on Fangraphs.com WAR is calculated using FIP as a base and adjusting for defense and run environment.

I know WAR's been around for a while. I've seen it in the past and didn't like it because I don't think you can really quantify "wins" (I also don't like UZR, which I know is also used to calculate WAR). My comment was that it seems to have become the hot stat of the year. In the past I saw it used very vaguely, now I see it used all the time. I read an Orioles message board and its all they use. "so and so is overpaid he's only worth 0.3 wins" or "we need a 6 win player in the lineup". I can't stand stand how its essentially become the main criteria for evaluating players.

As I said personally don't like any of the sabermetric stats, I perfer to look at thinks a bit more simply (there are some stats, I don't mind). I only brought up ERA+ to try and help make a case for Felix Hernandez. He's doing much better than his record suggests, and I'm really starting to think he deserves the award.

[Jigga]

One has to look no further than Steve Carlton to see how good a team you're on matters. In each of Carlton's three Cy Young wins (1977, 1980, 1982), the Phillies won at least 89 games. Sorry Felix, being on a last place team means no Cy Young for you.

You're a tool. You know good and damn well that Steve Carlton won the Cy Young in 1972 pitching for a last-place squad (when he won 27 of the 59 games the Philadelphia Phillies won that season). Not only did he win it, it was a unanimous selection.

[NJTank]

You forgot the key stat 27 wins.

I am not saying Felix has to win 20 games, but he should at least win 15.

[rams80]

Serious question Tank. What can pitchers in the AL do to personally WIN games?

[NJTank]

I understand Felix did all he could and has had poor support, but I think Wins still matter.

[rams80]

I understand Felix did all he could and has had poor support, but I think Wins still matter.

In terms of team performance? Sure.

In terms of individual performance? 'Tis but a secondary or even tertiary concern. Especially in a league that typically doesn't let pitchers bat.

[NJTank]

I understand some saying CC does not deserve it because his ERA is a little high, but look at David Price for a second

18-6 with a 2.84 ERA.

Felix is 12-12 with a 2.31 ERA

The ERA is close enough and Price has 6 more wins and 6 less losses, and is on a division winner.

To me Price is the right choice in the AL Cy Young race.

[rams80]

Half a run is close?!

[Sport]

Wins are a product of being on a team that provides you with run support! Holy , why is that so hard to understand?! Being on a good team is not an indication of being a good pitcher. Wins and losses are a team stat. If Felix Hernandez were on the god damned Royals he'd probably have three more wins, Tank.

Big series here in San Diego. Reds are looking to wrap up the Central and jockey for position with playoff seeds. That number 2 seed with a shot to face the wildcard or the west champ seems way better than playing Philly. The Padres are in that heated race out west. This'll be a good three game set.

[NEW.ERA]

Well if we're going to talk about Felix for Cy Young consideration well he's on a much worse team, Can we get some MVP love for Jose Bautista. Hit 51 and 52 tonight and has 118 RBI's, Top 5 in Runs. I know Pitching is totally different but you can't not say if Bautista was a Yank or Sox he'd be getting much more love.

Only thing he doesn't match up to is Batting Average.

[Jigga]

Well if we're going to talk about Felix for Cy Young consideration well he's on a much worse team, Can we get some MVP love for Jose Bautista. Hit 51 and 52 tonight and has 118 RBI's, Top 5 in Runs. I know Pitching is totally different but you can't not say if Bautista was a Yank or Sox he'd be getting much more love.

Only thing he doesn't match up to is Batting Average.

No.

And he doesn't deserve any MVP love, either. In this post-"Steroid Era" still HGH Era, no one trusts home run numbers anymore (unless they're Albert Pujols' numbers, he's a Cardinal, so he's a perfect human being). He could hit 100 home runs and it wouldn't matter unless his team was in the playoff hunt.

[NEW.ERA]

Well if we're going to talk about Felix for Cy Young consideration well he's on a much worse team, Can we get some MVP love for Jose Bautista. Hit 51 and 52 tonight and has 118 RBI's, Top 5 in Runs. I know Pitching is totally different but you can't not say if Bautista was a Yank or Sox he'd be getting much more love.

Only thing he doesn't match up to is Batting Average.

No.

And he doesn't deserve any MVP love, either. In this post-"Steroid Era" still HGH Era, no one trusts home run numbers anymore (unless they're Albert Pujols' numbers, he's a Cardinal, so he's a perfect human being). He could hit 100 home runs and it wouldn't matter unless his team was in the playoff hunt.

Well then he should take Bill Simmons advice. Pee in a cup, have it tested right in front of the media.

[Jigga]

If he's taking HGH, it won't show up in any urine test...

and no one should take the advice of Bill Simmons.

[NEW.ERA]

If he's taking HGH, it won't show up in any urine test...

and no one should take the advice of Bill Simmons.

So I guess it really just takes someone to man up and admit it and I've actually been digging Bill Simmons on PTI for the last week.

[gingerbreadmann]

I know you hate WAR (which is far more than a year old) Baltimore, but on Fangraphs.com WAR is calculated using FIP as a base and adjusting for defense and run environment.

I know WAR's been around for a while. I've seen it in the past and didn't like it because I don't think you can really quantify "wins" (I also don't like UZR, which I know is also used to calculate WAR). My comment was that it seems to have become the hot stat of the year. In the past I saw it used very vaguely, now I see it used all the time. I read an Orioles message board and its all they use. "so and so is overpaid he's only worth 0.3 wins" or "we need a 6 win player in the lineup". I can't stand stand how its essentially become the main criteria for evaluating players.

As I said personally don't like any of the sabermetric stats, I perfer to look at thinks a bit more simply (there are some stats, I don't mind). I only brought up ERA+ to try and help make a case for Felix Hernandez. He's doing much better than his record suggests, and I'm really starting to think he deserves the award.

Gotcha. I follow this stuff so closely it's hard to tell when stuff becomes mainstream at all . One thing I would say though is that just like we laugh at people who evaluate players solely based on W-L, ERA, or Home Runs, sabermetrics isn't trying to be a be-all, end-all. Things like WAR will never be perfect and are only meant to take the place of ancient stats like Wins and losses or batting average, but be much more comprehensive and, hopefully, accurate and true. I personally believe that these stats have come a very long way in making objective analysis much easier and more accurate for the average fan, which is the goal. People in the saber community will tell you that those who say "dump this guy; his UZR/150 is -44" are misusing sabermetrics because no matter how far we come, these stats will never, ever be perfect and stats will always only tell one side of the story. Rather, the main takeaway from sabermetrics is that instead of informally (I think that word is a key here) judging merit for things such as the Cy Young based on Wins and Losses, people are tossing around WARs and FIPs, and that is almost undoubtedly a good thing. Like anything, sabermetrics should be taken for what it's worth, and that can be many things to many people.

You forgot the key stat 27 wins.

I am not saying Felix has to win 20 games, but he should at least win 15.

Tank, I am honest here. Can you provide the reasoning behind why you think wins are "the key stat," when you are trying to evaluate the best pitcher. Essentially, exactly how are wins directly representative (e.g. the best pitcher must have the best record) of great pitching, and how is that the case moreso than for any other statistic?

Wins are clearly your #1 concern and I am not trying to pick on you or condescend you here; it is an honest question. And yes, wins and losses may be a historical reason why he WILL lose the Cy Young, but I am asking why it is a reason he SHOULD lose it.

[NJTank]

I think wins demonstrate the ability to give his team a boost. When you are on a last place team you sometimes face reserves, a team preparing for a big game the next series will perhaps rest a starter or two. You are less likely to be matched up against another team's ace. (Look at Price and Sabathia, they faced off twice in the past two weeks.) I am not saying being on a last place team should end your Cy Young chances, but there should be some standards, and for me its at least a .600 win percentage and 15 wins. I just see 12-12 as being not good enough. Also its not like nobody has had a good year Price and Sabathia also have had Cy Young seasons, Price more so.

[Audiodrama]

I think wins demonstrate the ability to give his team a boost. When you are on a last place team you sometimes face reserves, a team preparing for a big game the next series will perhaps rest a starter or two. You are less likely to be matched up against another team's ace. (Look at Price and Sabathia, they faced off twice in the past two weeks.) I am not saying being on a last place team should end your Cy Young chances, but there should be some standards, and for me its at least a .600 win percentage and 15 wins. I just see 12-12 as being not good enough. Also its not like nobody has had a good year Price and Sabathia also have had Cy Young seasons, Price more so.

I've come to the conclusion that Tank's either drunk or my grandmother.

Both scenarios would leave him with the same aura of stubbornness.

[Lights Out]

I think wins demonstrate the ability to give his team a boost.

Unless Felix is planning on grabbing a bat and scoring some runs, he won't be able to improve his record dramatically and "give his team a boost."