Still MIGHTY

2010-11 NHL Season Thread

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It's the NHL. The whole thing is stupid.

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Tonight is the NHL Draft Lottery. Edmonton goes for two 'victories' in a row.

Odds of Winning the 1st Overall Pick:

48.2% - Edmonton Oilers

18.8% - Colorado Avalanche

14.2% - Florida Panthers

10.7% - New York Islanders

8.1% - Ottawa Senators

How the hell do they calculate those percentages?

They are predetermined? Also, Edmonton has a 25% of winning the lottery but, because you can only move up no more than 4 spots, a lottery win for teams 6-14 still nets the Oilers the #1 pick. That's why their percentage is so high.

I see. Good information.

It's stupid though that you can win the lottery but not win the lottery.

To expand on what I said, here is the how the NBA draft lottery works, which is the same process as the NHL except that in the NBA if you win, you pick first overall.

To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1?14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 (4!) orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before the trade) still determines eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.

As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

  1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
  2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
  3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
  4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
  5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
  6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
  7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
  8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
  9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
  10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
  11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
  12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
  13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

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The NBA's system is also stupid, needlessly complex, and runs counter to the concept of preventing tanking. One team, one ping-pong ball, I say.

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So New Jersey "won" the draft lottery but by rules moved to 4th? Or did I hear NHL Live incorrectly?

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You are correct.

One team can move up 4 spots from 5-14. New Jersey did that and there for "Won" the lottery but in all aspects Edmonton won the lottery.

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You are correct.

One team can move up 4 spots from 5-14. New Jersey did that and there for "Won" the lottery but in all aspects Edmonton won the lottery.

Jersey finished strong. They should find a way to package that pick for cap relief.

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You are correct.

One team can move up 4 spots from 5-14. New Jersey did that and there for "Won" the lottery but in all aspects Edmonton won the lottery.

Jersey finished strong. They should find a way to package that pick for cap relief.

Well they have to give up a 1st Round pick sometime due to the Kovalchuk fiasco but I'd doubt they'd pass on a top prospect like they can get this year.

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That is so New Jersey Devils to win the lottery in the one year they're actually in it.

The Blue Jackets got bumped to 8th where they'll draft somebody that won't provide an impact for another three years, if ever at all. I'd suggest tanking the next two years to get the almost guaranteed to be a superstar number one pick, but I don't think the franchise can afford any more low finishes. This team is trapped in this zone where instead of building the right way they have to shoot for 8th, but can't afford to become truly serious contenders via freeagency. Because of this, they'll continue to draft in the top ten (but not top 5) until they get lucky and their draft picks actually turn up and start making the playoffs regularly or move.

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