2013 MLB Predictions

[Sport]

God I hope not. They always underachieve when that happens.

They went through an entire season last year with the same 5 starters. The likelihood of that happening again is small.

[The_Admiral]

As a Dodger fan, I'm obligated to despise you people, but there isn't that much hate of Giants fans on this board.

I think people found Brian Wilson annoying (I sure did), but Giants fans themselves know their stuff and aren't jerks. Well,

[Kramerica Industries]

Disclaimer: None of you have to do what I did, and none of you have to read what I wrote.

It's that time of year again, and it's time for my 2013 MLB projections. I do not claim to be 100% objective, and this will show itself at some point during the following entry. Furthermore, keep in mind that I had the A's losing 100 games in 2012, and had the Red Sox winning 93 games. These projections could end up being completely off. This is all for some fun and games. So, without further adieu...

2013 American League predictions and outlook:

AL East

1 Tampa Bay 92 70

2 Toronto 90 72

3 New York 89 73

4 Boston 77 85

5 Baltimore 73 89

AL Central

1 Detroit 98 64

2 Cleveland 83 79

3 Kansas City 81 81

4 Chicago 74 88

5 Minnesota 61 101

AL West

1 Anaheim 95 67

2 Texas 86 76

3 Oakland 83 79

4 Seattle 74 88

5 Houston 55 107

Coming into the season, the American League favorite has to be the Detroit Tigers if for no other reason than the fact that, while they improved their club with the addition of Torii Hunter in the off-season (filling a void in RF that had become pretty apparent over 2012) and did not see any major departures, the same cannot be said about any other team. Once again, the Anaheim Angels made the "splashiest" move of the off-season, signing Josh Hamilton away from Texas, but at the same rate, they also saw Hunter and Zack Greinke leave, as well as Daniel Haren and Ervin Santana, who, while injury-prone and/or inconsistent, had been depended on in recent years to deliver productive innings on the Angels staff, innings that will have to be filled elsewhere. Furthermore, while the 2012 Angels were fueled on the notion of excellent starting pitching, bolstered with the mid-season trade of Greinke, they would now seem to be a team built to hammer the ball at will, with Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton all in the same lineup. This approach will win them a lot of regular season games, but whether it can deliver for them in the postseason remains to be seen. Jered Weaver's credentials cannot be argued against, but C.J. Wilson's can, after having a dismal second half of 2012, where he posted an ERA a full three runs worse than he did in the first half.

Fortunately for Anaheim, while they saw some marginal shift in their win expectancy, the Rangers were the big losers of the off-season from a free agency POV, seeing their former MVP move to a division rival and also seeing Mike Napoli bolt during the off-season to Boston. Napoli's departure won't be nearly as big a deal, as he proved to be injury prone in 2012 (so much so that his original three year contract with Boston was discarded after a failed physical, and he is playing on a one-year contract now) and also the addition of A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate as well (though he is in for sharp regression after an outstanding, 27 HR season in his contract year with Chicago). Hamilton, obviously, is the much more significant departure, as he leaves behind an enormous hole in the Rangers potent lineup. In addition, top pitching prospect Martin Perez suffered a broken fore-arm recently in spring training and will be out for the next month as well. Top prospect Jurickson Profar will be coming into the season with some pretty heady pressure to help keep the Rangers afloat. A strong start to the season is a must for Texas, if for nothing else than morale purposes, after their September collapse that cost them the AL West and, ultimately, a spot in reaching the playoffs in 2012.

In regards to the Oakland Athletics, there is much to be proven on that front as to which team from 2012 will be which in 2013. In the first 81 games of 2012, Oakland was a pedestrian 39-42, and well behind Texas in the divisional race. In the final 81 games of 2012, Oakland went 55-26 and was almost unbeatable at the Oakland Coliseum, where walk-off wins were aplenty, with 15 in total (including the playoffs). Between the fact that many players caught fire at the right time (ahem, Brandon Moss, ahem), the sheer number of close victories, especially at home, and the fact that their rotation is comprised almost entirely of young pitchers (which can be both a good and a bad thing - I'm taking the bad, in this case), and there is some regression in tow for the A's in 2013. Fortunately for them, they will be able to bulk their record up against the worst MLB team in decades in the Houston Astros, newcomers to the American League after 51 seasons in the National League, but the flip side of that is that the Angels and Rangers will also be able to beef up their record there.

In terms of the Detroit Tigers, they were a team that disappointed for much of 2012 despite the enormous expectations placed on them. After winning the AL Central in 2011 and advancing to the ALCS, in addition to signing Prince Fielder in the off-season, as well as having a weak division laying ahead in 2012, it was not unrealistic to think the Tigers might win over 100 games. Instead, they got off to a very slow start, spent much of the first four months of the season toiling a bit under .500, and trailing the Chicago White Sox in the standings. Only in the last two months when the very real possibility of missing the playoffs was beginning to create itself, did the Tigers get their act together, and squeeze out 88 wins and the division title. That said, their record was never indicative of their actual quality anyway, which is why they were expected to beat the A's and Yankees in the playoffs, which they did. With that division, and their obvious superiority over their foes, their 2013 season can sort itself out much like the 2012 did, and not be a problem. In that sense, the Tigers are kind of like the NBA, in that the regular season is meaningless for them. They will win the division, and with the additions they made in the off-season, especially Hunter, as well as a starting foursome of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer (who is Verlander-lite), Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister, they will be the favorites to win the American League again in 2013.

That said, there is some apparent quality coming to the forefront with the Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals, with one making the most befuddling trade of the off-season, and the other making some strong additions to their outfield. The Indians inked Nick Swisher from the Yankees and Michael Bourn from the Braves on identical contracts, and with the mild progress Cleveland has shown in recent years, there is reason for optimism for the Indians to finally break their skid of sub-.500 seasons (last winning season was 2008). Unfortunately for them, they continued to be haunted by foolish Ubaldo Jimenez trade of 2011, a deal that only looks worse and worse with each passing day, as Ubaldo's fastball velocity has dwindled significantly and, more importantly, he has lost all command he once had, resulting in walks galore. A poor trade that has produced terrible results and helped hold the organization back in the short term. On the other hand, with the Kansas City Royals, they also made a pitching trade under some poor pretenses, thinking that acquiring James Shields from Tampa Bay would help put them over the top in their bid to return to the playoffs. Kansas City hasn't made a playoff appearance since 1985 and hasn't had a winning season since 2003, but this trade will not help put them on any sort of a fast track to return to either one. Make no mistake about it, James Shields is an excellent pitcher and an excellent leader for a young team, but between trading away consensus top prospect Wil Meyers, as well as Jake Odorizzi, who has substantial upside, the Royals have mortgaged their future for an upgrade on a marginal team. Acquiring James Shields will not lift them over Detroit in the division, and it won't lift them over Texas, Oakland, New York, Tampa Bay, or Toronto in a wild card race. And while ending that losing seasons stretch is a desirable thing in and of itself, it's really nothing more than an empty accomplishment if it bears little fruit for the future. There's a reason why Dayton Moore has a poor reputation across the league, and he did nothing to assauge that with his off-season moves.

Coming to the AL East, this is, without a doubt, the weakest the division has been in the past 20 seasons, if not longer. The New York Yankees saw their productive RF Nick Swisher depart in the off-season, without adequately replacing his production, and they also saw Russell Martin depart. Russell Martin was an enormous black hole at the plate for most of 2012, only coming to life in the last 1.5 months of the season and ending with 21 HR but a paltry average (though his plate discipline remained strong all year). The problem there is not so much with letting Martin depart, as it is with the fact that they did not replace him with ANYONE of useful calibre. Chris Stewart is a career back-up when he has been in the Major Leagues, only useful for his defense, which is fine from a back-up catcher, except for the fact that he goes into 2013 as the starting catcher, with another no-hit, fine-defensively (reputation-wise and 2013 ST-wise) catcher behind him in Francisco Cervelli. The Yankees have/had (because who the hell knows right now) a plan to get their payroll under $189M for 2014 due to luxury tax purposes, which helped handicap them a bit during free agency, but one player who was available and would fit Yankee Stadium well is A.J. Pierzynski, and he signed a one year contract with Texas. Point being, a one year contract would have zero impact on 2014's payroll plans. For a team with a payroll as high as that of the Yankees', to have a catching duo of Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli is not just a black hole offensively, but it's frankly an embarrassment on the entire organization.

Not only that, but superb-3B replacement Eric Chavez bolted for Arizona during the off-season, and the uber-clutch Raul Ibanez wasn't retained either. Let's not even get started on the whole Alex Rodriguez saga, which has done the impossible and stained his reputation even further, as well as left the Yankees' organization in flux about what to do with him. He was a no-show during the 2012 postseason, constantly pinch-hit for late in games, and coming off hip surgery on the other side now from the hip surgery he had in 2009. He's basically been a ticking time bomb of an injury, and when this bomb went off, it also brought forth whole sorts of new PED speculations. The best of all of this? Coming into 2013, there's still 5/$114M remaining on that contract, which likely could not be voided, so the Yankees will still be paying the price of bidding against themselves in 2007 for a long time to come. And, honestly, if that isn't enough when it comes to poor contracts, then let's toss Mark Teixeira into the mix as well, as he has been declining every season since 2009, when he came to the Yankees. After an outstanding, 39 HR, .948 OPS season in 2009 with his gold glove defense, Tex has gone backwards every season, and is now to the point where he's making $22.5M to hit .230 and OPS at .810, both of which are mediocre numbers for a first baseman, let alone the highest paid one in the sport. And, despite this, he STILL might be the best first baseman in the division, as the rest of that smorgasboard consists of James Loney, Chris Davis, Mike Napoli, and Adam Lind. Not exactly a murderers row of sorts to deal with. As a further means of injury to insult, Curtis Granderson suffered a broken fore-arm during spring training, will be out till around June at least, which takes another 43 home runs out of the Yankees lineup. In total, for a team that hit 245 of them in 2012, 162 of them will be unavailable for Opening Day of 2013. Not good.

The Yankees bright spot is clearly in their starting pitching, but questions abound even there. C.C. Sabathia is coming off arm surgery and had likely his worst season in pinstripes in 2012. Huroki Kuroda is in his late 30s and unlikely to replicate his 2012 brilliance. The same can be said for Andy Pettitte, who was truly phenomenal when he did pitch. Phil Hughes has back problems that don't seem to be curbing themselves any time soon, and Ivan Nova gave up the most extra base hits in baseball last season, and set a Yankees team record in the process. And who knows how well David Phelps will pitch with the book out on him now, too. Even in the back end of the bullpen, questions persist, as the ageless Mo Rivera is coming off a torn ACL and is 43 years old. Mo is undoubtedly the best relief pitcher in MLB history, but he has to prove his mortality at some point no?

The Toronto Blue Jays, sensing opportunity to make hay in the AL East in 2013, made some outstanding trades with the Mets and Marlins, bringing in erstwhile staff aces Josh Johnson from Florida and reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from New York. I have no concerns about Dickey's ability to adjust to the AL East, as knuckle ball pitchers are not subject to the same kind of "adjustments" that standard fastball-changeup-breaking ball pitchers are. Josh Johnson, however, is coming off injuries from 2011 and was not at his Josh Johnson best in 2012 for the Marlins. Another prize in that trade, Jose Reyes, is a huge upgrade in the middle infield over the enigmatic Yunel Escobar (more on him in a bit), but he is also constantly battling leg injuries, and the worst way to fix that is to play half the season on artificial turf. For someone who has a huge aspect of their game built on their speed, this will bring about some interesting developments in 2013. Another prize, Mark Buehrle, is frankly not the pitcher he used to be, and I don't really see that as any kind of a huge addition to their staff. Innings eater, no doubt, but the pitcher he was in Chicago will not be the pitcher he is in Toronto. To be fair to the Jays, however, it must be noted that their all-star slugger Jose Bautista missed the last 2.5 months of 2012 with a wrist injury, and with him back in the lineup with Edwin Encarnacion, that might be the best 3-4 duo in the American League outside of Detroit. The optimism is real in Toronto, and there's a very good chance they return to the playoffs after last appearing in 1993.

The Tampa Bay Rays, thanks to their economic problems, took a step back in instant performance for 2013 with the departure of James Shields (and, to a lesser extent, Wade Davis), but with their outstanding starting pitching depth, this won't be as big a deal as one thinks. David Price is one of the three best pitchers in the American League, and Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, Alex Cobb, and Jeremy Hellickson provide a very deep staff, as well as Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi in the minors. Shields leadership will be missed, but the Rays will be able to survive without him. The real development will be how the always-enigmatic B.J. Upton is replaced for 2013. After four seasons of hot-and-cold play, Upton bolted for Atlanta (later joined by his brother), and it will be interesting to see how the Rays move on without him. Wil Meyers, the top prospect from Kansas City, will not be with the team on Opening Day, but his presence in the future should make for some tantalizingly good thoughts about him and Evan Longoria in the middle of that lineup, provided, of course, that Longo not keep suffering leg injuries (which is a legit concern; he's had notable leg injuries in at least three of the past four seasons). Yunel Escobar, by virtue of being a Rays player now, is guaranteed to end his inconsistent ways and finally hit .300 this season while playing stellar SS defense. Whether Fernando Rodney can come anywhere near his 2012 season again is an interesting thought. He will not replicate 2012, that's a given, but whether he can remain a very reliable closer or whether he looks more like his career-long self (through 2011) will have an effect on the Rays chances in 2013.

There's not too much to say about the Baltimore Orioles. They posted the best record in one-run ballgames in the past 100 years in MLB in 2012, and that has zero chance of repeating itself. They made no real additions in the off-season, though they did let one of the most useless players in baseball (Mark Reynolds) depart. That's an organization that still doesn't have a very bright future, but they did catch fire for one season and that will have a positive effect on the fanbase going forward. In regards to the Boston Red Sox, they made some incredibly stupid signings, financially, with Ryan Dempster and Shane Victorino, but those two (along with Napoli) in no way propel the Red Sox back into the race with the Yankees, Rays, or Blue Jays, at this point in time. Frankly, seeing Ben Cherington ink those contracts did me some good, as those were gross overpayments for non-impact players. Do some more of that, Ben.

[National League standings and outlook tomorrow, as well as playoff predictions. Hopefully, that will be a much shorter entry.]

[BrySmalls]

The Nats will finish in third place in the NL East this year. They might make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

From there, who knows?

[Sport]

We need a really long ribbon for CCSLC Longest Post of the Day.

I only skimmed some of that.

Here's my picks that'll be so accurate they won't even need to play this season. Also, not picking wins.

National League

East

1 *Braves

2 **Nationals

3 Phillies

4 Mets

5 Marlins

Central

1 *Reds

2 **Pirates

3 Cardinals

4 Brewers

5 Cubs

West

1 *Dodgers

2 Giants

3 Diamondbacks

4 Rockies

5 Padres

American League

East

1 *Rays

2 **Blue Jays

3 Orioles

4 Yankees

5 Red Sox

Central

1 *Tigers

2 Indians

3 White Sox

4 Royals

5 Twins

West

1 *Angels

2 **A's

3 Rangers

4 Mariners

5 Astros (who will be generationally bad. They could challenge the 62 Mets' record)

[Lights Out]

AL East

1. Toronto*

2. Tampa Bay**

3. Baltimore

4. NY Yankees

5. Boston

AL Central

1. Detroit*

2. Kansas City

3. Cleveland

4. Chicago White Sox

5. Minnesota

AL West

1. Anaheim*

2. Oakland**

3. Texas

4. Seattle

5. Houston

NL East

1. Atlanta*

2. Washington**

3. Philadelphia

4. NY Mets

5. Miami

NL Central

1. Cincinnati*

2. Pittsburgh

3. St. Louis

4. Milwaukee

5. Chicago Cubs

NL West

1. San Francisco*

2. Los Angeles**

3. San Diego

4. Colorado

5. Arizona

World Series: Toronto over Cincinnati, 4-2

[NJTank]

I will take over this thread and make it the official MLB Preview thread and I will make my picks on March 31st.

I encourage everyone to contribute.

[infrared41]

We need a really long ribbon for CCSLC Longest Post of the Day.

I'm betting that it was the longest post in Sports in General history. We gotta have something back in the stock room that we can give out as an award for that, don't we?

I will take over this thread and make it the official MLB Preview thread and I will make my picks on March 31st.

I encourage everyone to contribute.

Our leader has spoken.

[vicfurth]

I think the Rangers will be better than people think. Hamilton, while supremely talented, was becoming an absolute headache out here with constantly whining and excuses and "God is punishing me" crap.

The rotation is solid even with a few injuries, and it's not like the Rangers will be hurting for runs. Not as good as 2010-11, but they'll make the playoffs.

[Kramerica Industries]

What can I say? I haven't had too much chance to talk baseball in the past few months and, frankly, it's probably the sport that I'm best at trying to analyze.

The end result are 2,800 word essays that I crafted on a whim.

[Sport]

[infrared41]

What can I say? I haven't had too much chance to talk baseball in the past few months and, frankly, it's probably the sport that I'm best at trying to analyze.

The end result are 2,800 word essays that I crafted on a whim.

*No offense, but your "analysis" reads an awful lot like you're just regurgitating stuff you read in a 3rd rate baseball preview magazine. There was not one thing in that entire post that made me think "this guy really knows his stuff." My point is your "piece" was only a little less fluffy than cotton candy. No offense.

*Don't you love how "no offense" is inevitably followed by something that's sure to offend the person it's directed at?

[Kramerica Industries]

Hence "trying" to analyze.

[FGM13]

Nationals over Blue Jays in WS.

[CubsFanBudMan]

Bumping for posterity's sake. I didn't want to have to make my prediction again in the new thread. Mr. T lurks here.

[Fox]

This is the year the Pirates make the playoffs

[camly]

AL EAST

Toronto 96-66

Tampa 92-70 WILD CARD

Baltimore 81-81

New York 76-86 (Teixeira out 8-10 weeks)

Boston 69-93

AL CENTRAL

Detroit 103-59

Chicago 82-80

Kansas City 77-85

Cleveland 75-87

Minnesota 70-92

AL WEST

Los Angeles 99-63

Texas 91-71 WILD CARD

Oakland 83-79

Seattle 64-98

Houston 57-105

NL EAST

Washington 97-65

Atlanta 93-69 WILD CARD

New York 76-86

Philadephia 76-86

Miami 60-102

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati 101-61

Pittsburgh 87-65

St. Louis 84-68

Milwaukee 80-82

Chicago 59-103

NL WEST

Los Angeles 99-63

San Francisco 97-65 WILD CARD

Arizona 81-81

Colorado 74-88

San Diego 68-94

AL Wild Card Texas over Tampa

NL WiId Card San Francisco over Atlanta

ALDS Detroit over Texas

Los Angeles over Toronto

NLDS San Francisco over Cincinnati

Washington over Los Angeles

ALCS Detroit over Los Angeles

NLCS Washington over San Francisco

WS Detroit over Washington 4-1

AL MVP Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP Joey Votto (bias)

AL CY Justin Verlander

NL CY Stephen Strasburg

AL MOY Jim Leyland

NL MOY Don Mattingly

AL Batting Title Alejandro De Aza .322 (fantasy team bias )

NL Batting Title Andrew McCutchen .358

[McCall]

^^^Why aren't the Cardinals and Pirates playing as many games as everyone else?

[YessSir32]

Keep in mind I had Miami in the playoffs last year and the Orioles in last place.

AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals (I will laugh about this in October)

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians

Minnesota Twins

AL West

Anaheim Angels

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

NL East

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds

St Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

NL West

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

[Joshawaggie]

My only prediction is that the Twins will not finish in last place in the AL Central. They won't contend for anything, but they won't be last, as everyone is predicting.