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2013 NBA Playoffs Prediction Thread


sportsfan0518

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I wish I watched more Grizzlies, Pacers and Nuggets games. Each team won 50 games (except the Pacers, who only played 81 games?) and have broken from the mold of star-dominated teams. I don't think any of the three makes the Finals, but each seems like it could make a surprise run to the conference finals.

It's good for the NBA to have secondary markets do well; I just wish it wasn't always so quiet when they did. The Grizzlies won 56 games -- that's a lot! They're winning a ton, butTNT only ever shows Lakers/Blazers games.

I don't think its so much that its a secondary market, its that there's no storyline or superstar players with Memphis.

They don't have an outspoken owner. The fan base isn't that great. They don't have any loud personalities on the team. And they don't have any superstars in the traditional sense. They have three really good players in Gasol, Randolph and Conley, a deep bench, and a team that wins more through defense then offense.

Its not that they're small market, they just don't go along with the narrative and if you need further proof of this I would just look at OKC. That's a small market team. But they go with narrative so they get promoted. Same thing with Sacramento back when they had Webber, Bibby and Divac.

The only reason I think you tend to get more small market teams like this is because a team like Memphis could never land a true superstar player like LeBron, Durant, Kobe or Howard through free agency. So the only way they can win is to be more active in areas where the big market teams aren't and that's mainly through defense, bench play and a more well rounded starting five. For the record I don't think one or the other is inherently better. There have been plenty of successful and non successful teams built on both philosophies. Just that its pretty clear which one the NBA thinks is right and or better.

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They're "blue-collar and lunch-bucket" because they're one of those teams that gets to be as physical as they want for the most part on defense while their opponents always get a ton of ticky-tack calls on the other end. That's part of the reason their defense is so good, which feeds into the "blue-collar" narrative.

I don't think reducing the Memphis Grizzlies to a non-screwed-up-market basketball version of the Phoenix Coyotes is exactly fair to them.

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The storyline piece is understandable, but so dumb. It's not that there aren't compelling stories in mid-market teams; it's that TNT et al are too lazy to pull them out. I'm sure at least one backup point guard on, say, the Bucks has a sick nephew, or a three-legged dog, or an interesting training routine, or a fun coach from his AAU days. It's like the Olympics -- the American athletes aren't sepia-toned sob stories by their very nature; intern #1502 interviews them, proposes a package, and shoots it.

I get that it's hard work to build household names and compelling franchises, but it seems like it's in the NBA's, ESPN's and TNT's best interest to do so, especially when they're trying to sell teams to a larger audience each spring. Why spend all season (like us) talking about Kobe and LeBron when you could also invest some time in, say, Dion Waters, Lazar Hayward, Jannero Pargo, or Trey Gilder?

Why limit yourself to five compelling teams, when you could instead have 30?

1 hour ago, ShutUpLutz! said:

and the drunken doodoobags jumping off the tops of SUV's/vans/RV's onto tables because, oh yeah, they are drunken drug abusing doodoobags

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Knicks > Heat in the season series.

Knicks > Spurs (Spurs would have home court, but Knicks won in SA in only meeting at Spurs, Spurs won in only game at NY -> because Spurs would have more home games, Knicks would win.

Knicks over Spurs in 7.

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For predicting playoff series, I like this format (heard it on the radio):

Who wins Game 1 and who wins the series?

Then, assumingly, one would offer predictions for Games 3 and 5 (importance would vary for these games), but the Game 1 winner is probably the best indicator of who wins the series.

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To me the mystery is can the Heat go Fo Fo Fo Fo?

To me if they lose more than 3 games this entire postseason I will be shocked, I see them sweeping past the first two rounds and maybe needing six games in the Eastern or NBA Finals.

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  • 2 weeks later...

My thoughts on each series.

Thunder/Grizzlies

With Russell Westbrook I would think OKC could take this in six, but without him I think its going to be a toss up. That half court iso ball offense that OKC runs so well is just not the same without Russell Westbrook. They're probably going to have to run more set plays and come at them inside, both of which should come as good news for Memphis. Push comes to shove I still think OKC will take it in seven, but I think this will be the closest second round series, with potentially every game being decided by 10 points or less.

Spurs/Warriors

I don't think any team looked more impressive in their first round series then San Antonio. Granted the Lakers were without Kobe Bryant, but they still had Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard in the series, and San Antonio still made them look no better then the Bobcats. That being said this series is going to be like looking into a mirror. Without the uniforms you probably couldn't tell who was who. Both Jackson and Popovich have almost identical coaching philosophies with very well disciplined teams to execute them. I think Golden State is a good team that's figuring out how to win, but they're facing a team in San Antonio that's as battle tested as you can get and near the top of their game. Maybe Golden State takes a game or two and I do think they will win at least one game, but that's it.

Heat/Bulls

This series is going to be tough to watch. Taking the Derrick Rose saga out of things, I think Chicago is the best story of these playoffs to this point. For what they had to overcome to beat a good team in Brooklyn was impressive. Problem is Miami is a great team, not a good team. Hard work is only going you so far against those kinds of teams. You need the horses to and Chicago just doesn't have them. For not to get swept would be an achievement.

Pacers/Knicks

New York gets their offense almost exclusively from their perimeter play and Indiana is the best perimeter defensive team in the NBA, so I just don't see how the Knicks are going to be able to do much of anything in this series. If they're relying on Carmelo Anthony to come out and score 40 points every night to win games, they will get swept in four games, because that is just not going to work when your going one on one with Paul George. They are going to have to find another way to get offense and I just don't think they will be able to do it. Amar'e may help, but he's a limited player at this point in his career. Maybe they find a way to steal a game or two in this series, but I don't think this is going to be all that close.

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Rust defeats Rest.

Chicago takes Game 1 from Miami. This might've been Chicago's best chance of winning a game in this series (at least, on the road), and give them some credit for doing just that.

I think that was a must win for Chicago. I don't think that was the case coming into the game, but there was no way the Bulls could afford to let this Heat team beat them at home with a sub par effort. Your not beating Miami when they're on their A game and this was probably the only chance Chicago going to get to take control of the series.

Now the pressure is on Miami to take game two, because even as good as they are it would be a tall order to come back 2-0 after losing 2 games at home.

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East:

Miami > Milwaukee (4)

Brooklyn > Chicago (6)

Atlanta > Indiana (7)

New York > Boston (6)

Miami > Brooklyn (5)

New York > Atlanta (7)

Miami > New York (6)

West:

Oklahoma City > Houston (5) (6)

Los Angeles > Memphis (7)

Golden State > Denver (6)

San Antonio > Los Angeles (6) (4)

Oklahoma City > Los Angeles (6)

Golden State > San Antonio (7)

Oklahoma City > Golden State (6)

Finals:

Miami > Oklahoma City (6)

Eagles/Heels/Dawgs/Falcons/Hawks

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  • 2 weeks later...

Indiana vs Miami

If Miami is going to lose, its going to be this series. I think Miami is the more talented team and if they play at their best in all four games, they will sweep the Pacers. But if there's one team that can beat Miami in any game where they don't bring their A game its Indiana and considering how they looked against Chicago and Dwayne Wade's health that's a significant possibly. If anyone is thinking Miami is just going to blow this team out of the water, stop now. They are just too good defensively for that to happen. They're not going to get many fast break points and they aren't going to be able to drive to the rim at will with Hibbert down low. This series reminds me a lot of the '98 Bulls/Pacers series. That went a full seven and Indiana could have taken that series had they been able to beat the Bulls just once in Chicago. I could see a similar situation here. I think its going to be very important for Miami to hold home court in this series. I can't see them beating the Pacers more then once at the Fieldhouse. I'll say Miami in seven for this series. In the end I think their talent will prove to be too much, but this I think will be the biggest matchup of the NBA playoffs. Whoever wins this series will win the NBA title.

Memphis vs San Antonio

With Memphis I think your finally starting to see a good team come of age. Lionel Hollins is showing why he may be the most underrated coach in the NBA right now. They took out the defending Western Conference champs and they beat the Spurs two years ago with many of the same players that are on the team now. Its also important to note they did not have Rudy Gay for that series either, so I have no doubt this is team that believes they can beat San Antonio again and isn't going to crawl under a rock if they get blown out in a game or two, which will probably happen. As for the Spurs, I just have no feel for this team. I thought they were the most impressive team to win in the first round, I thought they were the least impressive team to win in the second round. Granted Golden State put up a great fight against them and I think that team has a bright future, but San Antonio should have had no problem disposing of the Warriors. So who are the real Spurs? I think your going to find out in this series. Memphis is a team that will make you beat them at their own game and that's a physical half court styled game. I know San Antonio has the half court part down. I'm not sure if they have the physical part down though. Look at the problems they had against Golden State. Like the Miami/Indiana series, I think this will be a long seven game series and I will go with Memphis, but to me this is a tossup.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Heat/Spurs

The two big matchups I see for this series are Tim Duncan vs Chirs Bosh and Tony Parker vs Mario Chalmers.

Duncan is no longer the automatic 20/10 that he used to be, but he looked pretty close to it against Memphis. That was what I thought was going to be the toughest matchup for the Spurs and instead in large part because of the play of Duncan they were able to effectively neutralize the Grizzlies inside game and that's what I think won them the series. Miami presents a different matchup. Bosh is not a real low post threat. He's at his best when he's playing at the top of the key just waiting for two feet of separation between him and his defender to knock down an open jumper. When your playing with two of the best guys in the game in terms of driving to the hole in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, you can hunt for those shots. I would imagine it will be pretty similar to what you saw between Bosh and Hibbert in the Indiana series. Miami really did not have an answer for him until game seven when they started to double team and Bosh was very inconsistent the whole series. But any game where he even remotely showed up, the Heat won. I think Duncan is going to have to play as good as he did against Memphis for San Antonio to have a chance.

As Mario Chalmers, quickly becoming one of the best defensive point guards in the NBA today and he has by far the most important defensive assignment of anyone on either team. You stop Tony Parker you stop the Spurs. You let Tony Parker do his thing, you lose 9 times out of 10. Even as a solid of a defender as Chalmers is, I would strongly consider putting either LeBron or Wade on Parker for at least a few minutes each game and the reason I say is not only because of the difficulty of the matchup, but I also think LeBron has to be more of a scorer this series with Wade being hurt and that means Chalmers has to assume a bigger chunk of the ball handling duties. Even though it might be a bit of mismatch to have him on Ginobili, I want him fresh even if it means giving up 4-6 more points in the game. I could potentially see this being the one series where Miami not having a true point guard comes back to bite them, because I think San Antonio is going to make them play a much more traditional offense rather then having them spread the floor and essentially letting LeBron just do his thing. That didn't work all the time against Indiana and its not going to work all the time against San Antonio either.

I say Heat in seven. Six if Wade can get healthy(ier). I don't even think this would be much of a series if he was healthy, but given that he's hurt it takes away a lot of Miami would normally be able to do against San Antonio in terms of spreading the ball around and giving them different looks each time down the floor. I think you'll probably get two or three blowouts, but there's going to be one classic game somewhere in that game 4-6 range and whoever wins that will take the title.

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Heat/Spurs

The two big matchups I see for this series are Tim Duncan vs Chirs Bosh and Tony Parker vs Mario Chalmers.

Duncan is no longer the automatic 20/10 that he used to be, but he looked pretty close to it against Memphis. That was what I thought was going to be the toughest matchup for the Spurs and instead in large part because of the play of Duncan they were able to effectively neutralize the Grizzlies inside game and that's what I think won them the series. Miami presents a different matchup. Bosh is not a real low post threat. He's at his best when he's playing at the top of the key just waiting for two feet of separation between him and his defender to knock down an open jumper. When your playing with two of the best guys in the game in terms of driving to the hole in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, you can hunt for those shots. I would imagine it will be pretty similar to what you saw between Bosh and Hibbert in the Indiana series. Miami really did not have an answer for him until game seven when they started to double team and Bosh was very inconsistent the whole series. But any game where he even remotely showed up, the Heat won. I think Duncan is going to have to play as good as he did against Memphis for San Antonio to have a chance.

As Mario Chalmers, quickly becoming one of the best defensive point guards in the NBA today and he has by far the most important defensive assignment of anyone on either team. You stop Tony Parker you stop the Spurs. You let Tony Parker do his thing, you lose 9 times out of 10. Even as a solid of a defender as Chalmers is, I would strongly consider putting either LeBron or Wade on Parker for at least a few minutes each game and the reason I say is not only because of the difficulty of the matchup, but I also think LeBron has to be more of a scorer this series with Wade being hurt and that means Chalmers has to assume a bigger chunk of the ball handling duties. Even though it might be a bit of mismatch to have him on Ginobili, I want him fresh even if it means giving up 4-6 more points in the game. I could potentially see this being the one series where Miami not having a true point guard comes back to bite them, because I think San Antonio is going to make them play a much more traditional offense rather then having them spread the floor and essentially letting LeBron just do his thing. That didn't work all the time against Indiana and its not going to work all the time against San Antonio either.

I say Heat in seven. Six if Wade can get healthy(ier). I don't even think this would be much of a series if he was healthy, but given that he's hurt it takes away a lot of Miami would normally be able to do against San Antonio in terms of spreading the ball around and giving them different looks each time down the floor. I think you'll probably get two or three blowouts, but there's going to be one classic game somewhere in that game 4-6 range and whoever wins that will take the title.

In games 1-6 of the ECF, Roy Hibbert played the best six consecutive games as he has ever played in organized basketball. He was a under 40% for the season.

MIA made a Game 7 adjustment to effectively double team both in the post and on pick&roll. Paul George was forced in to numerous bad shots in game 7.

While IND had the second best defense in the NBA and the best 3PT defense in the NBA this season, SAT is still a better team. IND were league best at lessening what MIA lives to do: Corner 3s and getting to the rim.

However, Bosh does not have to deal with the length of Roy Hibbert. Duncan and Splitter are the same overall length to him. The 40 lb. difference and 4 inches matters in going at a guy at the rim.

Chalmers:Heat::Lenard:Spurs. Meaning they are the fourth best player on the court for each team at the optimum time. What they may do in the boxscore will look better than what actually occurs when the Big 3 from each team is on the court.

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