2013 MLB Discussion Thread, Redux

[Epiphanic]

"My doesn't work in the playoffs...what happens after [the regular season] is ing luck."

Sure thing, Billy.

1-12 in series clinching games since 2000. 0-5 in home Game 5's in the ALDS. After a while, it's not just luck.

If this was the regular season, I doubt that someone as sabermetrically-inclined as you would brush off "luck" so quickly after 13 games. Doubly so after cherry-picking 13 games. There is nothing fundamentally different about baseball in June than baseball in October. In short series, whether it's 3, 5, or 7 games, anything can happen.

But for the sake of argument let's say that it isn't luck. That there is something fundamentally wrong with these Oakland A's teams that are so good in the regular season only to fall flat in the playoffs. First question is, why? What's missing? The second question is how does Mr. Beane address that problem while staying with his constraints? He can't go out and get a Verlander or a Kershaw short of finding one in the draft and having them cost controlled.

To win October, you have to be in October. And Billy Beane is arguably the best GM at getting his team to October.

[Kramerica Industries]

13 games may be a SSS, but the fact that this has happened in six different series' is not.

They held a series lead and, in fact, had a chance to clinch a series multiple times in four different seasons. They cannot win a winner-take-all game at home, for Lord knows whatever reason exists.

Why do I think this happens? Actually, I do have a reason that seems legit to me, and that comes from how many of the A's teams have been constructed, the 2012-13 teams a little more-so than the 2000-2003 teams. The A's tend to be pretty solid when it comes to their roster top-to-bottom, but they are lacking when it comes to what I'd consider "impact" talent. The fact that they won more games than Detroit this year didn't completely stun me (it did in '12, because Oakland came out of nowhere in '12). But I would never, ever pick the A's to beat the Tigers when push comes to shove, because, while the Tigers are a very top-heavy team, it's that top-level talent that wins out in October, because everything is reduced into five and seven game pacts, not 162 game marathons. When I see the A's rotation, I see one that can certainly keep them in most games and their offense can pick up the slack from there. When I see the Tigers rotation, here's what I see in a playoff situation:

1) the prospective Cy Young recipient for this season

2) the Cy Young and MVP recipient of just two seasons ago

3) the American League leader in ERA

and that Doug Fister fellow isn't some schlub either.

What do I really feel then, in effect? That these A's teams, be it through their monetary restrictions or whatever-have-you, generally lose for a reason in the first round of the playoffs, and that's because I generally don't feel they are as good as the team they play, with probably the only exception being 2002 against the Minnesota Twins. It would just be easier to let it be and not mock them for it if they didn't always seem to jump out to a 2-0 or 2-1 series lead and then lose from there. You gotta admit, they've really mastered that routine. And, in many of those cases, they had their opponent in a stranglehold, and let them slip lose. Detroit was FINISHED on Tuesday. Lowrie hit a backbreaking two-out, two-run shot, the A's led 3-0 with only 15 outs to get, against an offense that had only scored three runs (all in one inning) in their last 30 innings. Instead, Straily faltered, Peralta evened things out, and eventually the Tigers were able to grab control of that game. Scherzer negotiated out of an impossible bases loaded/0 out situation in the 8th inning, thanks largely to Josh Reddick swinging at a 3-2 pitch that was halfway between Detroit and Oakland.

---

I also think Billy Beane brings a lot of it on himself, frankly, with quotes like that. Yes, the short series does yield itself to erratic results in baseball, but it gets a bit annoying to always hear that the A's don't win because they just don't get the luck to fall on their side. 1-12 in series clinching games cannot all be chalked up to bad luck. Just like we may whine about how the Cardinals are impossible to eliminate from the playoffs, and certainly some fortune has found them (twice winning an elimination game when they were down to their last strike, really?) but 8-1 in elimination games also shows mental toughness and character. Same thing with Detroit winning winner-take-all Game 5's on the road for three straight seasons. Moneyball can't find that.

(yes, I was a bit all over the place in this post. Point being, I don't think you can just chalk this all up to bad luck for the A's, and I also think there can be some fundamental differences to October baseball. For instance, Max Scherzer would never pitch two innings of relief in a baseball game just because why the hell not. The game is managed differently, and the pitching staff is used differently. This is why Fredi Gonzalez not using Craig Kimbrel in the 8th inning the other night was just a "holy crap are you effing braindead" kind of mistake. He let the season slide down the tubes without using his best relief pitcher and the best relief pitcher in baseball.)

[Unocal]

It's a crying shame that we ONCE AGAIN have to see the fatcat no-heart bloated beer-league Tigers in ANOTHER ALCS.

I'm sick of this team. I'm tired of hearing how great Cabrera or Verlander are. They're a boring rerun and you KNOW how it's gonna end.

Moneyball works. What has Detroit accomplished with this forumula? 2 meaningless pennants because they do SQUAT when it counts. Just because they make the ALCS doesn't justify how they coast through the season and turn it on when they have to. They don't give a damn until they HAVE to give a damn. Take out Avila's Cleveland HR and the White Sox miracle comeback, they finish behind Cleveland. But once again, they play when they want to play.

Go Boston- save the World Series from another Tiger foldjob. If they make it, you're guaranteed at least 6 games and they won't get shutout 2 straight games instead of these fall frauds.

[rams80]

It's a crying shame that we ONCE AGAIN have to see the fatcat no-heart bloated beer-league Tigers in ANOTHER ALCS.

I'm sick of this team. I'm tired of hearing how great Cabrera or Verlander are. They're a boring rerun and you KNOW how it's gonna end.

Moneyball works. What has Detroit accomplished with this forumula? 2 meaningless pennants because they do SQUAT when it counts. Just because they make the ALCS doesn't justify how they coast through the season and turn it on when they have to. They don't give a damn until they HAVE to give a damn. Take out Avila's Cleveland HR and the White Sox miracle comeback, they finish behind Cleveland. But once again, they play when they want to play.

Go Boston- save the World Series from another Tiger foldjob. If they make it, you're guaranteed at least 6 games and they won't get shutout 2 straight games instead of these fall frauds.

Ummmm......

Wow.

[FGM13]

It's a crying shame that we ONCE AGAIN have to see the fatcat no-heart bloated beer-league Tigers in ANOTHER ALCS.

I'm sick of this team. I'm tired of hearing how great Cabrera or Verlander are. They're a boring rerun and you KNOW how it's gonna end.

Moneyball works. What has Detroit accomplished with this forumula? 2 meaningless pennants because they do SQUAT when it counts. Just because they make the ALCS doesn't justify how they coast through the season and turn it on when they have to. They don't give a damn until they HAVE to give a damn. Take out Avila's Cleveland HR and the White Sox miracle comeback, they finish behind Cleveland. But once again, they play when they want to play.

Go Boston- save the World Series from another Tiger foldjob. If they make it, you're guaranteed at least 6 games and they won't get shutout 2 straight games instead of these fall frauds.

Ooooooookaaaaaaaaay.

[Sport]

So you hate the Tigers because they haven't won it all in the past?

And you want them to lose to Boston so they won't lose in the World Series?

Weird train of thought there.

[Kramerica Industries]

and, to think, this same cat was irritated beyond belief when it looked like the NHL team from Boston would win the Cup, but he's in favor of the MLB team from Boston getting to within a scant four games of winning the World Series.

Sports fans are weird.

[GFB]

SabresRule has some sort of fixation on Detroit. He wrote the same post a few months back, just swap out "Tigers" for "Red Wings" and "Verlander" for "Datsyuk" and it's nearly identical...

Detroit is so annoying.

The Red Wings half-assed it for most of this season. And they're in the 2nd round.

I guess waiting until game 45 to turn it on paid off. They didn't kill themselves in the first half after last year's 2nd half fade.

A top-heavy team beat one of hockey's deepest teams. Jimmy Howard and essentially 3 and a half forwards basically willed Detroit's weakest in eons.

This year's team is particuarly odd- they basically didn't turn it on until April, but they get away with it because 3 players- Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Howard- gave a crap. And I LOATHE Datsyuk- hate his guts.

Detroit is the most annoying team in hockey- I wasn't rooting for the Ducks as I rooted against the soulless evil empire from Hockeytown.

Moving on from crazy land, I think Boston takes this next series in 5. Fister and Sanchez did not look good in the ALDS, both Fielder and Cabrera are barely hitting, and that Boston offense is a machine.

[Kramerica Industries]

Blame Hasek.

[Gary]

SabresRule has some sort of fixation on Detroit. He wrote the same post a few months back, just swap out "Tigers" for "Red Wings" and "Verlander" for "Datsyuk" and it's nearly identical...

Detroit is so annoying.

The Red Wings half-assed it for most of this season. And they're in the 2nd round.

I guess waiting until game 45 to turn it on paid off. They didn't kill themselves in the first half after last year's 2nd half fade.

A top-heavy team beat one of hockey's deepest teams. Jimmy Howard and essentially 3 and a half forwards basically willed Detroit's weakest in eons.

This year's team is particuarly odd- they basically didn't turn it on until April, but they get away with it because 3 players- Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Howard- gave a crap. And I LOATHE Datsyuk- hate his guts.

Detroit is the most annoying team in hockey- I wasn't rooting for the Ducks as I rooted against the soulless evil empire from Hockeytown.

Moving on from crazy land, I think Boston takes this next series in 5. Fister and Sanchez did not look good in the ALDS, both Fielder and Cabrera are barely hitting, and that Boston offense is a machine.

Funny thing is I read his name and thought, hey it's the guy who hates the Red Wings for some stupid strange reason. Wonder what would happen if the Lions made the Super Bowl?

[NJTank]

(the "Mets are pond scum" days)

Ahh, the old days.

Darryl Strawberry commented on that a few years back and said "We were Pond Scum" AFter reading The Bad Guys Won its hard to argue. Hopefully one day it will be made into a movie if the Mets owners stop being panzies.

[The Six]

Funny thing is I read his name and thought, hey it's the guy who hates the Red Wings for some stupid strange reason. Wonder what would happen if the Lions made the Super Bowl?

"The Lions are so annoying. They SUCK for years and now they think that they can waltz into the Super Bowl?

Calvin Johnson is the only good thing about this team, and he's not even that great. Breaking records doesn't mean anything if you can't win a championship. And he CAN'T, because he plays on the Lions.

Go Patriots. At least they've proven themselves by winning championships. Detroit CAN'T."

[DaRadniz29]

Here's the updated Bracket for the AL/NL Championship Series.

[McCall]

Finally. 13 innings later.

Cards up 1-0.

[Kramerica Industries]

Love ya, Donnie, but Lord Almighty you are an awful, awful manager.

[DaRadniz29]

I want to see the Molina tag again, it looks like Ellis' left elbow touched the glove. If that is the case, the the TBS broadcasters need to STFU. Well they need to anyway, but...

Edit: Found this photo, looks pretty simple to me, but then again I'm a Cardinals fan...

[STL FANATIC]

I'm not sure if he tagged him or not. Some angles it looked like he did, others like he didn't. I also have no idea if he ever touched the plate.

I admit I may not feel this way if I were on the other side, but personally, I think, as long we're going to have home plate collisions we ought to make the collision itself equivalent to the tag. Otherwise there is simply no way for a catcher to protect himself.

Really, I'd rather just eliminate collisions.

I did see some people suggest the way Ellis hit Molina would have counted as interference anyways, thus making it irrelevant whether he was tagged. Not sure about all of that.

[Kramerica Industries]

The tag was never made, which would technically make Ellis safe since he did touch the plate.

Thing is, that's not an ump miscue, like so many others are. No other umpire have called Ellis safe. When replay exists in 2014, we can re-visit it then, but that's nothing in the realm of the usual "blown calls".

[DaRadniz29]

The tag was never made, which would technically make Ellis safe since he did touch the plate.

Thing is, that's not an ump miscue, like so many others are. No other umpire have called Ellis safe. When replay exists in 2014, we can re-visit it then, but that's nothing in the realm of the usual "blown calls".

Yeah, honestly, it's too hard to tell, and there will be differentiating opinions depending on what side you're on. The photo I found looks like he was tagged. I've seen other angles where it looks like he wasn't tagged. So I can't say definitively he made the tag or that Ellis wasn't tagged. I agree with you that if Gerry Davis (or any umpire) saw the Molina's glove skim any part of Ellis, Ellis is going to be called out.

Even with replay, if the call on the field is Ellis is out, I don't see replay changing a play like that.

[McCall]

This almost seems in similarity to the vicinity call at second on a double play, where as long as he's close they'll give it to them to allow them to avoid being ran into. Now I don't like that, but if its gonna be used, then this should be allowed with it being a collision situation. He had the ball in his glove and it wasn't like he had it out to his right and Ellis it him from the left. If he missed the tag, which it seems from angles he did miss it, the glove was maybe less than an inch from actually touching Ellis so it was pretty close.

In essence, I could see a catcher turning while making contact on a collision the same as a second baseman being able to swipe near the bag on a double-play turn. Both are done to avoid injury while still making a strong attempt on the play. When the latter is no longer given, then the former can be corrected as well.