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If the FBS Playoffs Were THIS Season


pianoknight

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This discussion was on a Husker BBS I frequent and I thought it was an interesting water cooler hypothetical:

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Assuming the FBS playoffs started THIS season instead of 2014, who are the four teams chosen? Assume that the season ended this last week (for now) and it's time for the selection committee to decide.

It seems obvious that our 3 undefeated teams make the cut - Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State.

But who is #4?

There are 6 teams in power conferences with only a single loss: Auburn & Mizzou (SEC), Clemson (ACC), Oklahoma State & Baylor (Big 12) and Michigan State (Big Ten). Plus, there are also two mid-major undefeated teams out there - Northern Illinois and Fresno State.

So who is #4?

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I think the obvious answer is that the answer is in fact not obvious at all and still relies on subjective decision making.

I probably see the top 3 as you mention making the cut, no doubt. Team 4 would be whoever has the most 'style points' and with Oklahoma State defeating a Baylor team who has scored 70 points 4 times this season - I doubt the committee would look past that. Had Stanford remained a 1 loss team, I think they are team number 4 though.

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Still no love for NIU and Fresno.

I think I'd be inclined to pick Auburn or Oklahoma State. If you want to be a conference purist, then go Okie Light since the ACC, B1G and SEC are already represented.

Funny how the Pac-12 looked like world beaters in September, but wroth Stanford and Oregon both having bum losses, the national perception has waned.

Personally, I'd love to see an eventual 6- or 8-team bracket include a berth for the mid-majors. It could be fun to throw a Boise, Fresno or NIU into the fray and see some Cinderella stories unfold. It would also settle the debate of whether they can run with the big dogs. Boise especially would always knock off one big time opponent a season, but could they beat LSU, Penn State and Oklahoma in successive weeks? I'd line to find out.

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I was thinking about this earlier...I think you have to look at how the 1-loss teams performed against the 3 undefeated teams if their one loss does in fact come to one of those three. I'd love to see Fresno or NIU in there, but that's very unrealistic with so many major 1-loss schools.

My pick right now would be OKSU but there's still a couple weeks left until postseason play...anything can happen. Imagine what an Auburn victory this Saturday will do to the (technically fictional) playoff picture.

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Still no love for NIU and Fresno.

I think I'd be inclined to pick Auburn or Oklahoma State. If you want to be a conference purist, then go Okie Light since the ACC, B1G and SEC are already represented.

Funny how the Pac-12 looked like world beaters in September, but wroth Stanford and Oregon both having bum losses, the national perception has waned.

Personally, I'd love to see an eventual 6- or 8-team bracket include a berth for the mid-majors. It could be fun to throw a Boise, Fresno or NIU into the fray and see some Cinderella stories unfold. It would also settle the debate of whether they can run with the big dogs. Boise especially would always knock off one big time opponent a season, but could they beat LSU, Penn State and Oklahoma in successive weeks? I'd line to find out.

There is no reason to discuss who would be #4 this season since no conference champion has yet to be decided.

The committee does not know their own metrics, so it is hard to even think about how they will mess things up. We just know that, “the panel will release four interim rankings leading up to the Dec. 7, 2014 selection date and publicize the protocol behind it. It’s not clear what factors will be weighed beyond strength-of-schedule and head-to-head results.

Committee members won’t travel the country to watch high-profile games, as bowl-selection officials typically do, but instead will rely on metrics, discussion and debate to rank teams.”

Fresno State and NIU should not be considered because their level of competition has not been great. If both had a 9-game schedule with the other teams ranked 11-20 in either the AP or coaches poll, the best each would do is most likely 5-4.

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I agree about NIU and Fresno, actually. It's just sad (for them) that perfection wouldn't result in at least a shot at the title.

And obviously, we don't know the selection criteria, but I can't imagine that it's wildly different than the current rankings: BCS, AP, Coaches, Sagarin, etc.

The only real "unknown" is how they'll rank the importance of diversity in conferences. Would they allow only 2 SEC teams? Or could all 4 come from the same conference? Personally, I'd prefer to see them give weight to conference champs, so you're more likely to see 4/5ths of the Power 5 represented in most seasons.

Helps to keep it fresh as opposed to another LSU-Bama rematch yawner.

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I would be Auburn, Mizzo, Bama, and FSU. The deep south all the way, SEC gets what it deserves and when Ohio State loses to Michigan State they'll be out of the picture.

No way both Auburn and Missouri both make it. One of them will lose in the SECCG and have their spot taken by Oklahoma State.

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I would be Auburn, Mizzo, Bama, and FSU. The deep south all the way, SEC gets what it deserves and when Ohio State loses to Michigan State they'll be out of the picture.

See, this is why no one likes Sparty.

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As of right now (i.e. before Saturday's games) I'd select #1 Florida State, #2 Ohio State, #3 Auburn and #4 Missouri. However, Oklahoma State would essentially get a playoff spot after Saturday should they beat Oklahoma because either Auburn or Missouri has to lose the SEC championship, knocking one of them out of the top 4. Should Oklahoma State also lose then Stanford would be next in line. If Stanford loses too then Alabama would have a chance to jump back in it.

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IMO, it should be Florida State v. Alabama and Ohio State vs. Auburn if we had playoffs this year, Alabama is the best 1 loss team, and Auburn gave them their loss.

It isn't the "right" way to do it, but I would like it if the selection committee chooses the semifinal games to intentionally preserve the best matchup for the national championship. Aside from the potential for significant injuries or "any given Saturday," the winner of FSU vs. Alabama would easily defeat the winner of tOSU vs. Auburn. The NCG has been awful since 2005, and this committee has the chance to fix that.

Maybe let the committee select the 4 teams and get David Stern to set the match ups.

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I would be Auburn, Mizzo, Bama, and FSU. The deep south all the way, SEC gets what it deserves and when Ohio State loses to Michigan State they'll be out of the picture.

No way both Auburn and Missouri both make it. One of them will lose in the SECCG and have their spot taken by Oklahoma State.

It was if it was today. Obviously one of them are going to lose. I think Ohio State is going to lose to MSU though, they have the number one D that has contained mobile quarterbacks and running backs before. There are alot of 1 loss teams, Bama, Mizzo, Auburn, Baylor, MSU, UCF, Louisville, Fresno, and an undefeated NIU. First delete all teams with weak shecadules, Now it;s OSU, FSU, Bama, Mizzo, Auburn, Baylor, MSU, and OKST. Now all the teams that are definitly in are OSU and FSU. Now the remaining 3/4 is up to Bama, Mizzo, Auburn, Baylor, MSU, OKST. OKST beat Baylor and Auburn beat Bama. 1-FSU 2-OSU 3-Auburn 4-OKST

If Auburn loses than Mizzo deserves a spot and if OSU loses MSU deserves a spot. If OKST loses to Oklahoma then I'd give the spot to Mizzo. If FSU loses I'd also give the spot to Mizzo. If Mizzo and FSU/OKST/OSU lose then Bama could get right back. You can't decide until Sunday.

There should be 8 teams in the playoffs though, it would make it easier to select and the tournament more of a clash of conferences.

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