NFL Inevitable implosion

[ScubaSteve]

Its all this pandering to the casual community I'm talking about. The NFL thinks that if your girlfriend is walking by the TV when a pink game is on that she will be mesmorised like a cat and become an instant hardcore fan.

I'm really not sure that's the case; I think the intent is more to sell the 1,000+ pink products available on the NFL's online store every October.

Actually let me rephrase because I think we both agree: the NFL doesn't care if your girlfriend is a hardcore fan as long as she's buying the merch and being all "zomg I love football." And thats what I mean by the NFL trying to win over these casual fans. The harcore are the ones watching the games, the casual ones watching the Super Bowl for commercials and buying pink jerseys

[OnWis97]

As for the casual fan, I think this is who they may lose...

For every pork rind-chowing fan that will watch nearly every minute that includes NFL football, there are probably a few that love the simplicity. For example, over the years my wife (also a U of Wisc graduate) has gone from quite casual to fairly knowledgeable (about her own team only). She rarely misses a game. But she complains about how I have Badger basketball on almost every weekend and then once during the week. There are several reasons the NFL is so popular and I am convinced that the ease of the once-a-week viewing is a part of it and I wonder what happens to the casual fan if they stop knowing what day their team plays...

On a Sunday: "Hey, what time do the Falcons play today?" ... "They played on Friday. They lost."

[Soarindude]

As for the casual fan, I think this is who they may lose...

For every pork rind-chowing fan that will watch nearly every minute that includes NFL football, there are probably a few that love the simplicity. For example, over the years my wife (also a U of Wisc graduate) has gone from quite casual to fairly knowledgeable (about her own team only). She rarely misses a game. But she complains about how I have Badger basketball on almost every weekend and then once during the week. There are several reasons the NFL is so popular and I am convinced that the ease of the once-a-week viewing is a part of it and I wonder what happens to the casual fan if they stop knowing what day their team plays...

On a Sunday: "Hey, what time do the Falcons play today?" ... "They played on Friday. They lost."

I think this is a fantastic way of summing it up. I don't think what Cuban is saying applies to hard-core fans. I think he is mostly talking about the large pool of casual fans that will be lost with all that is going on right now.

Getting rid of the touchdown dunk on the field goal poll? An absolutely stupid and annoying rule that pisses me off. Is it going to make me, a hardcore fan that watches their team play every sunday, stop watching the game? Of course not. But the casual fans that love the little quirks that come with the NFL may become less interested in the game with all these stupid rules. It's more of a build-up, really.

[Gothamite]

I don't think the casual fans give a damn about those. Seems to be a die-hard kind of thing.

Casual fans don't care about kickoffs, either, or PATs, or any of the rule changes proposed.

[Cosmic]

Its all this pandering to the casual community I'm talking about. The NFL thinks that if your girlfriend is walking by the TV when a pink game is on that she will be mesmorised like a cat and become an instant hardcore fan.

I'm really not sure that's the case; I think the intent is more to sell the 1,000+ pink products available on the NFL's online store every October.

Don't you remember? They found that one woman that didn't realize she had breasts until she saw NFL players slathered in pink? Pure altruism.

[BBTV]

I don't think the casual fans give a damn about those. Seems to be a die-hard kind of thing.

Casual fans don't care about kickoffs, either, or PATs, or any of the rule changes proposed.

I'll disagree with you there. I think even casual fans have an opinion regarding kickoffs and PATs, since they impact the way the game actualy looks and is played out. They aren't little nuances that only die-hards would really notice.

NFL bubble will burst as soon as something comes along that ruins fantasy football for people. I'm not a fantasy player, but it seems that the meteoric rise in NFL popularity in recent years is at least loosly correlated to the increase in fantasy football and "suicide" (that's really a horrible name for it) leagues.

Once the rule changes really start to mess with that (not sure how they would, but if they ever did) or it is somehow regulated (again, not sure how that would happen), popularity will drop dramatically. Hell - channels like Red Zone practically only exist for fantasy football dorks.

I'm sure there are players who are popular or have become "stars" mostly due to their fantasy football stats, as opposed to any real accomplishment. Would anyone really know if anyone on the Jaguars was good if not for fantasy football?

[NJTank]

The big problem is Goodell he is tinkering way too much and he will be the reason if the NFL implodes.

[pmoehrin]

I will agree that spreading out the games might drive down ratings some, but I doubt that alone is going implode the league as Cuban is referring to.

I think you also have to consider the source as well. Cuban is a smart business man, no doubt about it. But he's also never met a microphone he didn't like and it wouldn't shock if this was his way at getting back at the NFL for a failed ownership bid. I know the NFL has the rule that your allowed to own teams in other sports, but it hasn't seemed to stop San Kroenke, so I think its more of a guideline the owners simply made up. How true that may or may not be I have no idea, just think you have to consider the source with any statement and to me Cuban is not a very reliable source in this department because of his potential conflicts of interest.

That being said, I can tell you the one that's help drive me out of the sport to an extent and that's the concussion issue.

The biggest I can come up with against not just the NFL but football is that its an inherently dangerous sport and every time you take the field you are taking some very serious health risks that could result in a shortened life expectancy, serious body injury or in the worse case complete loss of mobility and even death. By in the large the sport has been a free pass on that criticism. If your not willing to take the risk, then just stay off the field. That's been the overall attitude towards it and for many years mine as well.

Now I think that sentiment is an oversimplification of the issue. Reading a lot of the stories of former NFL players, a lot of them don't sound very happy. They have memory loss, debilitating injuries that will never heal, medical bills piling up and for me at least its getting harder and harder to watch the sport, especially watching some of these hits and not think about that.

In the past I think you could think to yourself there was something really different about former football players as opposed to former basketball players or baseball players or hockey players, but you had plausible deniability backing you up. Maybe Mike Webster was just crazy. Maybe the physiological issues are just a way of dealing with the physical injuries. You could use that as an argument and there wasn't much to counter it with. Now with the knowledge of CTE there is no more plausible deniability. Even if you only play at the pee wee and high school levels, you are very likely to be doing yourself to be doing yourself some serious long term damage. And I don't think any 16 year old is nearly mature enough to be able definitively say if they are willing to take that risk or not, because most people to that age haven't experienced any real consequences with any decision they've made. And if that's true, then I think we as a society need to really take a step back and say okay is this something we should even be allowing at all and if we do, then we may need to seriously rethink the way this sport is played.

I don't think we're quite ready to have that conversation yet, but I think its coming. This has been an issue that's been pushed to side for almost a hundred years now, but in that time period you never had proof that even someone playing at a low level of play could be doing himself some serious life long damage. You do now and the conversation about CTE or the people talking about it aren't going away.

As far as myself I view myself as a hypocrite for still watching the NFL. I stopped watching college ball because I think the sport is completely rotten from the inside out in terms of corruption and exploiting players financially and by watching the sport I think I was in some endorsing that or at least being okay with it. But I also didn't start getting into college football until I was ten, so it wasn't that difficult to divorce from either. I've been an NFL fan for as long as I can remember and I think that's the only reason I'm still a fan at this point, but I just don't know how much longer that's going to hold up for.

With any potential kids I have the only way I would let them play is if I thought they had serious chance of making the NFL, but given my genes unless someone like Chyna comes along in my life, I seriously doubt its going to be an issue I'll have to worry about. The pros of learning teamwork and commodity and overcome the adversity as just far outweighed by the cons in my opinion.

So my guess if I could see anything driving people away from the sport it would be that and I don't think its going to be overnight because you still have plenty of people that grew up with the sport and have been fans for 20, 30, 40 even 50+ years that just aren't going to stop cheering tomorrow. But in a generation or so who knows? Just speaking on my part if I wouldn't be surprised if in ten years if I'm not watching anything outside of the occasional playoff game here and there.

[C's]

I think you also have to consider the source as well. Cuban is a smart business man, no doubt about it. But he's also never met a microphone he didn't like and it wouldn't shock if this was his way at getting back at the NFL for a failed ownership bid. I know the NFL has the rule that your allowed to own teams in other sports, but it hasn't seemed to stop San Kroenke, so I think its more of a guideline the owners simply made up. How true that may or may not be I have no idea, just think you have to consider the source with any statement and to me Cuban is not a very reliable source in this department because of his potential conflicts of interest.

I thought Stan Kroenke sold the Nuggets to his son so he could buy the Rams?

[pmoehrin]

I think you also have to consider the source as well. Cuban is a smart business man, no doubt about it. But he's also never met a microphone he didn't like and it wouldn't shock if this was his way at getting back at the NFL for a failed ownership bid. I know the NFL has the rule that your allowed to own teams in other sports, but it hasn't seemed to stop San Kroenke, so I think its more of a guideline the owners simply made up. How true that may or may not be I have no idea, just think you have to consider the source with any statement and to me Cuban is not a very reliable source in this department because of his potential conflicts of interest.

I thought Stan Kroenke sold the Nuggets to his son so he could buy the Rams?

He did but it was solely to get around that rule (and possibly tax reasons) which is why I wonder why the NFL bothers having that rule in the first place if that's all you need to do to get around it. For intents and purposes he still owns the Nuggets.

[infrared41]

The popularity will plateau at some point (if it hasn't already) and ratings will level off but I don't think we'll ever see the NFL "implode." I'd love to see a study that breaks down the reasons fans follow the NFL. My guess is such a study would look something like this...

People who follow the NFL because of Fantasy Football/Gambling: 73%

People who just like watching football: 27%

[IceCap]

No matter what your opinion is on Tagliabue, there's simply no arguing that the league was at it's apex of popularity during his tenure, and a lot of that had to do with how the business model worked. It was damn near perfect, and Goodell has been slowly chipping away at that ever since.

It was at the apex of its popularity under Tagliabue in part because he helped cover up evidence that would have damaged that popularity. I'm not saying Goodell is dealing with the player safety issue out of an altruistic love for the game and its athletes, but at least he acknowledges that a problem exists. At least he's trying to do something. His motives may very well be self-serving but if positive gains are made then so what?

Tagliabue's system not only let players get off lightly for murder (well manslaughter) but it also perpetuated a view of the league that glorified an unsafe style of play. You can say Goodell's been chipping away at it. I see him as trying to salvage it, to keep as much intact while still fixing was what so obviously left broken under his predecessor.

The biggest mark against Goodell is that he represents the trend of trying to over-expose the league. Thursday Night Football was a huge mistake, and expanding it is an even bigger mistake. That being said I think this would have happened under Tagliabue anyway. This is a classic case of the greedy getting greedier.

So I just don't get the hate. He wasn't handed the easiest job in the big four. He was handed a league that was in desperate need of being fixed. Regardless of whether anyone realized it or not at the time.

[The_Admiral]

pmoehrin, y u no post more?

[rams80]

I think you also have to consider the source as well. Cuban is a smart business man, no doubt about it. But he's also never met a microphone he didn't like and it wouldn't shock if this was his way at getting back at the NFL for a failed ownership bid. I know the NFL has the rule that your allowed to own teams in other sports, but it hasn't seemed to stop San Kroenke, so I think its more of a guideline the owners simply made up. How true that may or may not be I have no idea, just think you have to consider the source with any statement and to me Cuban is not a very reliable source in this department because of his potential conflicts of interest.

I thought Stan Kroenke sold the Nuggets to his son so he could buy the Rams?

He did but it was solely to get around that rule (and possibly tax reasons) which is why I wonder why the NFL bothers having that rule in the first place if that's all you need to do to get around it. For intents and purposes he still owns the Nuggets.

The rule's to prevent cross promotion in other markets. So the major concern is that the Kroenkes would pimp the Rams in Denver. The fig leaf transfer and presumable lack of promotion is enough to satisfy the league.

[pmoehrin]

pmoehrin, y u no post more?

I come back from time to time, mostly to check other people's post, but generally speaking no and don't have any plans to return full time either.

Most of the people here I like, but there's a few who I think in spite of their intelligence contribute nothing outside of berating others and shouting down any opinion that isn't their own and its not hard to figure out who I feel this way about. All you have to do is go over to the Forum Announcements board and read who's been suspended. You'll find every user I feel this way about listed there. Its only a three name long list, but they're all there and they're all frequent posters as well.

Other people may have a different tolerance level then me which is fine and I wasn't trying to call attention to the fact that I was leaving either because I don't want to impose those feelings on others, nor do I think it would to add to any conversation topic. But a few people have asked me why, so I'll share now if for nothing else to get people to stop asking.

I haven't completely left though. If anyone wants to PM for me for my opinion though, feel free. I will get back to you. I much prefer talking to people in a one on one setting and am not a fan of posing on message boards in general. I would only consider myself an "active" poster on one other site and even that I would say would be a pretty liberal use of the term, so its not like I left here to go on some other board.

The energy I used put in him is now being sent towards SABR and there's a couple projects that I'm involved with one of which may result in a book down the road and may have my first paper published in a month or two.

I don't want to get too off topic, but I will bid the CCSL community farewell for now. If something comes up that I feel is relevant like the Orioles media guides I posted a couple months back I'll pass it along and like I said if anyone wants to talk to me, I'm not hard to reach.

[The_Admiral]

Yeah, I get what you mean. I sorta had to take my foot off the gas here too. Best of luck with the book; keep us all posted.

These posts will now be deleted

[CubsFanBudMan]

This message will self-destruct in...

[DG_ThenNowForever]

pmoehrin, y u no post more?

Most of the people here I like, but there's a few who I think in spite of their intelligence contribute nothing outside of berating others and shouting down any opinion that isn't their own and its not hard to figure out who I feel this way about. All you have to do is go over to the Forum Announcements board and read who's been suspended. You'll find every user I feel this way about listed there. Its only a three name long list, but they're all there and they're all frequent posters as well .

whew. I'm glad it's not my fault!

Some of you guys need to be a little nicer. Pmoerhin is one of the good ones. More like him, less like others.

On the topic, if football goes away, what takes its place? MLB and NHL are on the downswing, NBA is incomplete, Nascar reached its peak, and MLS isn't close...yet. College football has the same problems the NFL does, and college basketball is popular for six weeks a year.

I think football stays king by default. For this generation, at least.

[NJTank]

Btw pmoehrin and i met at fan fest last year first person from ccslc i ever met in real life.

[FiddySicks]

No matter what your opinion is on Tagliabue, there's simply no arguing that the league was at it's apex of popularity during his tenure, and a lot of that had to do with how the business model worked. It was damn near perfect, and Goodell has been slowly chipping away at that ever since.

It was at the apex of its popularity under Tagliabue in part because he helped cover up evidence that would have damaged that popularity. I'm not saying Goodell is dealing with the player safety issue out of an altruistic love for the game and its athletes, but at least he acknowledges that a problem exists. At least he's trying to do something. His motives may very well be self-serving but if positive gains are made then so what?

Tagliabue's system not only let players get off lightly for murder (well manslaughter) but it also perpetuated a view of the league that glorified an unsafe style of play. You can say Goodell's been chipping away at it. I see him as trying to salvage it, to keep as much intact while still fixing was what so obviously left broken under his predecessor.

The biggest mark against Goodell is that he represents the trend of trying to over-expose the league. Thursday Night Football was a huge mistake, and expanding it is an even bigger mistake. That being said I think this would have happened under Tagliabue anyway. This is a classic case of the greedy getting greedier.

So I just don't get the hate. He wasn't handed the easiest job in the big four. He was handed a league that was in desperate need of being fixed. Regardless of whether anyone realized it or not at the time.

Ok and that's fair enough. The concussion issue was going to have to be dealt with eventually one way or another. And like I said before, the disciplinary actions have been positive under Goodell.

Again though, I'm talking more along the lines of things such as trying to unnecessarily move teams to London, setting the Pro Bowl up to fail as miserably as it possibly can (regardless of how people feel about it, it was still a VERY popular game until very recently as shown by TV numbers), eliminating kickoffs and other potential rule changes, and stretching the draft over multiple days and moving it back a month. None of that has done anything to help the NFL IMO, and has been nothing but counterproductive.

Maybe you're right and the NFL was "In desperate need of being fixed" (I don't necessarily agree with that, though), but Goodell hasn't done much to actually fix the game, and what change he has made was pretty much forced upon him and would've happened under any commissioner.