ESTONES6

I can't believe a football dominated conference like the SEC would be more interested in Duke over North Carolina or NC State. I'll take your word for it. I've been patiently waiting for your posts to start showing up on this thread.

It seems about right. It seems most schools and conferences want to blame the B16 TEN for the NWO as people are calling it... and rightly so. Although I don't think EVERY move has been a knee jerk reaction to the B16 TEN's expansion, I think the conferences just want a finger to point and the B16 TEN is happy to be the scapegoat as long as that $X million per school figure keeps going up. Call me nieve, but there had to be SOME sort of talks between conferences and schools before the B16 TEN added Nebraska. I just can't believe the Colorado, Utah, Texas A&M, and Missouri just all jumped because the B16 TEN went hunting.

Nothing we didn't know. We may be able to infer something though. The B16 TEN may be getting closer to 16 sooner than we think. Its kind of insane to think the premier sports outlet is reporting news from an athletic director of a school within the Conference that has pretty much started all this. If that $40 million dollar figure is anywhere close to being accurate, then its pretty obvious why Maryland hit the road so fast without thinking twice. Interesting to hear about NC State saying they weren't happy about Maryland leaving. I'm curious to see if they are positioning themselves for an SEC jump or if they are posturing for more support with in the ACC. I had anticipated the B16 TEN expansion effort to be something like a 5 year plan. If there is already an AD from a major school in a major conference talking about 16... then I think the B16 TEN already has a handful of schools they have contacted and have received commitments from. It just comes down to who they want to poach. I think its safe to say that Virginia will probably get an invite. The only question is 16. I love the little snipet from Mizzou at the end. I thought the B16 TEN really dropped the ball when they didn't invite Missouri. I think Mizzou would have added to the football and basketball competitiveness, but they have a historic rivalry with Nebraska, especially for a conference who prides itself on history and tradition.

With the Big XII surviving and potentially the ACC also surviving... I could very easily see most conferences sitting at 12 and not expanding to 14 or 16. I think both the B16 TEN and SEC will be sitting at 16 once the dust settles. But with the TX/OK 4 staying in the Big XII, the PAC-12 is pretty much staying at 12 unless they want to invite Boise State/Nevada/UNLV/UTEP... which I don't see happening. The Big XII could pull some interest from Cincinatti and Louisville, but I think between the Big East and ACC left overs, there will be some sort of common thought process to keep an eastern/atlantic conference together. It may be the worst of the major conferences, but I think those schools have some pride, some tradition, and try to keep a basketball dominated with solid (.500) football together. Its just a hunch. As most expect, the B16 TEN and SEC will be the power houses and the PAC-12 and Big XII will still have its years of competition, but it won't be as big of a coup if the OK/TX 4 jumped to the PAC-12.

Any sources? Just because it isnt twitter doesn't mean your source is any more credible. Lol, I know. TIFWIW. Don't take it for gold. Just my prediction. The source is nothing more than a friend. Again, just face value it. Oh, because you said something like "what I'm hearing". That is a bit misleading, especially with the now-debunked rumor of Georgia Tech and Virginia announcment yesterday.

Any sources? Just because it isnt twitter doesn't mean your source is any more credible.

The B16 TEN pays each school equally for the revenue gerated from the BTN. If memory serves, the BTN generated $280 million+ last year, which is about $22-$24 million per school. Even in Maryland can negotiate SOME sort of reduction in fee and/or Under Armor - which would love to get its product on the BTN more than just Northwestern - they have a legitmate shot at paying off the fee in 2 years. That's going by old figures, not including the influx of revenue that will be generated from the New York, Baltimore and Washington DC markets in 2014. Again, that would assume that they would use 100% of the revenue from the BTN to pay off its exit fee from the ACC, instead of reinstituting sports that they had to get rid of due to lack of funds. Sure, $50 million may be 1, or even 2 steps back, but after that, they will be hitting the ground running. Know what I mean?

I dunno. I don't know much about Journalistic Integrity, but one would think you don't "break" a story about 2 major universities leaving their conference to form the first Super Conference, when really all that has happened is either the conference has contacted the schools or the schools have contacted the conference. I would be willing to bet that just about every major college has had some sort of contact with a major conference. Whether its been a quick hey, hello, or hey we might be interested kinda sorta, would you guys be interested in us, or a flat out advertisement of why their school would fit within a new conference. Again, the fact that this a twitter guy with barely enough followers to fill an elementary school should say something. One would think that the major networks/sites would not only get the scoop first, but would have the resources to acquire such information WELL before a local guy could. Virginia and Georgia Tech very well could be on their way to the B16 TEN, but I don't think they guy would be the one to break it, nor would I be able to consider him breaking it. Anyone on websites with significant followings - such as this one - could start a rumor and it could pick up steam quickly. Just because one guy says it, doesn't mean he has a source. He could just be calling his shot. Everyone gets lucky.

I understand WHY the B16 TEN wants Georgia Tech, but I think most of GA is spoken for with the Bulldogs. I think adding GT would really be a bush league move, in my opinion (as if poaching other conferences isn't bush league enough). I think they should add Virginia, which would be a great add, and either Kansas State or North Carolina. NC is another school littered with rule breaking and sanctions. Sure they will make the biggest impact in both football and basketball but I think the conference may need more balance, since Virginia, Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State will occupy the "East Division"... and putting Michigan and Ohio State in the same division is out of the question.

Any news on the Georgia Tech and Virginia rumors? I haven't seen any of the major outlets even reporting "Sources".

I'm not sure every conference will be going to 16 if the Big XII survives and the ACC collapses. The B16 TEN and SEC will have 16 but I don't think the teams will be there for the PAC, XII, and new east conference. Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. Hint: In this modern college landscape, every school is looking out for themselves. No one wants to be left behind in the also-ran conferences that will exist when the dust settles. Notre Dame is no different than any other school that's not tied down in this regard. To a point. If you're already in one of the safe power leagues, you are going to feel a decent amount of loyalty to the overall institution and marching to the same drummer. Unless you're Notre Dame that is. The Irish would want too many breaks for that to work out. Just curious -- what are the safe leagues? By my count, it's Big Ten and SEC, and maybe the Pac-##. If you're in the Big XII and ACC, it seems like there's a very good chance you're not feeling too confident of the long-term health of your league. Just those 3. (Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12) I'm not even sure the Pac 12's a safe league. They aren't going to be raided, but if the Big XII becomes stronger than it already is, who is the Pac 12 going to add to get to 16? I can never see the Pac 12 adding Boise State or even BYU.

I like their chance better than say two weeks ago. Depends on what the B16 Ten is doing. The PAC 12 doesn't seem to be looking at much. I think they are hoping the OK/TX teams fall in to their laps. For the sake of college sports, I hope the ACC survives over the Big XII.

The fact the major outlets are ignoring this should tell you everything you need to know. The Notre Dame move, the Rutgers/MD moves all happened fast but under cover of night and not with tweeters just throwing stuff on the wall in the hopes it sticks. But we're seeing lots of it. I follow the same line of thinking. If memory serves, not one source has broken multiple realignment stories... At least not when it comes to the major conferences. I will continue to say that Georgia Tech is a mistake over Kansas State or North Carolina.

I really hope it's not Georgia Tech. Virginia would be a very solid move and could force a change of heart in Notre Dame. These conferences are not taking in to account the fans and their travel distances. In the twelve team era, fans had one or two major trips and a bowl game if they were lucky. Now in the 16 team era, we are looking at teams having to travel five or six states, 3 or times per year, and if they are having a good season, a big bowl game. The fan support will be an all time low... Which could be exactly what these conferences want. Less people at the game, means more watching at home.

That's been the rumor since ESPN said that the B16 TEN invited Nebraska, Mizzout, Rutgers and ND back in like... late 2010. That is the end game. 12 barely works, 14 is a disaster, 16 lends itseld perfectly. I'm anticipating either a 3 year cycle where A plays everyone in their division + A plays B in year 1, A plays C in year 2, and A plays D in year 3... or where A plays everyone in their division every year, + 2 teams from A, 2 teams from B, then 2 teams from B and 2 teams from C, then 2 teams from C and 2 teams from A. With a four-team pod system, that's only seven games out of 12. The SEC, currently with 14 teams, plays 8 in-conference games, six within division, two from the other division ONe of those is a permement opponent, one is rotating. Going to sixteen teamsand a twelve game schedule, conferences may have to make the move to nine conference games. If the pods are kept within "divisions" (West/East, Atlantic/Coastal, Legends/Leaders) an idea for an 9 game roating pod schedule might be like this: you play all teams in your pod every year (3 games) alternate between 2 of the 4 teams in your division's other pod on a home/home basis (2 more games), then alternate playing 1 pod in the other division every year (4 more games). 5 games in division, 4 out of division. I forgot about the protected cross over game. I would think 3 games within your division, 4 games from Divisional rotation, 1 game for your Projected Cross Over (Yes, this will still exist even when they move to 16... the B16 TEN understand the value of "The Game" every year, and they also understand the money that would result in Michigan -vs- Ohio State for the B16 TEN Championship, in an NFL Stadium, during Prime Time TV). So that would give 8 conference games... leaving 3 for out of conference scheduling. Since the B16 TEN and PAC-12 have a new working agreement... I would expect 1-2 games per team, per year against the PAC-12.

That's been the rumor since ESPN said that the B16 TEN invited Nebraska, Mizzout, Rutgers and ND back in like... late 2010. That is the end game. 12 barely works, 14 is a disaster, 16 lends itseld perfectly. I'm anticipating either a 3 year cycle where A plays everyone in their division + A plays B in year 1, A plays C in year 2, and A plays D in year 3... or where A plays everyone in their division every year, + 2 teams from A, 2 teams from B, then 2 teams from B and 2 teams from C, then 2 teams from C and 2 teams from A.

I get that ultimately, its about dollars, and to get the dollars you need households. Even though Georgia Tech has the households and is a member of the AAU, I just don't see it in the cards. I think the B16 TEN really wants to emphasize the contiguous footprint. I also don't see the B16 TEN adding 4 teams in a month. It seems like their long term plan is to go about it in stages. Not just one huge expansion move. There has been quite a lull in the expansion rumor mill once Maryland and Rutgers became official. I don't see how/why the B16 TEN would would add Maryland and Rutgers and then a few weeks later at Georgia Tech as the 15th member without having a 16th member lined up. It will be interesting. The only issue with all this expansion if sure, the universities are getting money from TV, but its going to be hard for the better teams to get fans in the stands, especially with ALL the bowl games being played out west or down south. Taking the B16 TEN for example... if there are 4 divisions of 4 teams, there is a chance that Nebraska would have to play Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and Ohio State in the same rotation. That means 4 long road trips just for the regular season. Add in the B16 TEN title game, and that will be a 5th trip, half way across the conference. Now throw in a major bowl, like Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl, and that a cross country trip that the fans are going to have to take? Could be a downfall.

Win-Win? The Big XII does not need BYU and the $4M/year they receive from their ESPN contract. Why split up the football portion of the media pie into an 11th section? The current Big XII media agreement is for basketball. It only makes sense if Utah has a high level of interest with other teams in the Big XII. If a significant portion of the population are Oklahoma or Kansas State fans, it could be the same mentality the B16 TEN is using by adding Maryland and Rutgers. Get in to markets that have significant numbers of fans of OTHER teams, not necessarily the team that's in that particular state.

If Florida State and Clemson were the biggest advocates of adding Louisville, than I would think that the ACC isn't going to go down without a fight. Still a lot rests on the Virginia and North Carolina schools, though.

We hear that with every round of expansion the last 2 years. These conferences come out and say they aren't going to expand or extend any invites, then sure enough, invtes are sent out. These Universities say they are committed to their current conference until the one of these bigger conferences with bigger TV deals extends an invite, and then we hear "well, it was in the best interest of not just out money making sports, but for our entire athletic department - which funds the non-revenue generating sports - and ultimately best for our university, as a whole."

Only if they suffer more defections. Another thought, why isn't the ACC going after West Virginia. Is WV locked in some kind of contract? The ACC rejected WVU after the SEC did. Yeah but I think things have changed. I think the ACC would be a lot more receptive to adding them now since they lost Maryland and the loss of Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, NC State are all very real possibilities. If the ACC could grab Louisville to replace Maryland and then extend an invite to Cincinatti, they could make a move back at West Virginia say hey, we are the first real super conference (at least by Quantity). Even if we lose 1 or 2 members, we'll still have more or equal members than the rest of the conferences.

I am curious to the B16 TEN's end game. I still think they pine for Notre Dame, even if it doesn't increase their footprint. I think Virginia is definitely in the B16 TEN's sights, and will probably be the 15th member. I am curious if they then extend an invite to Notre Dame one final time, or if they go ahead and try to add either Kansas State or North Carolina (I don't think Georgia Tech is a legitimate possibility). The only reason I see the B16 TEN inviting Kansas State or North Carolina over Notre Dame goes back to the cliche of "living well is the best revenge." Adding Virginia and Kansas State/North Carolina, would certiantly lead to Virginia Tech and NC State joining the SEC, would give almost a big middle finger to Notre Dame saying yeah, go join the ACC with the rest of the football left overs. I think the ACC needs to be proactive rather than reactive. If Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State and possibly UNC all leave the conference, the ACC could be on the outside looking in as the Big XII could then snatch up Florida State and Clemson and become a REAL Big XII. The Big XII certaintly won't be in the same shape they were in pre-Realignment, but they will definitely be sitting at the Adult table instead of the Kids table. As we have seen, upping the exit fee isn't really having the effect that we thought. Sure, $50 million is a big number, but when the B16 TEN and SEC are hanging profits of $25-$30 million in the first year... a school sees a $50 million as a small set back that could be covered completely, in the first 2-5 years of joining the new conference.

I also think they will land in the Big12. I do think the SEC is more possible than people think. It wasn't that long ago they got invited. Yeah but this isn't your daddy's conference expansion. There are new rules, there are new players, there are new forces controlling the moves. I think Florida State could be a possibility to the SEC, but I think a number of other things must fall through before it happens. Most of all, I don't think Florida State wants to be in the SEC. I think that they think they can compete, but I think they think they can compete BETTER in the Big XII. Let's face it, FSU has been picked by a lot of experts to either be in the BCS Championship Game or be a top 5 team the last 2-3 years, and they have fallen short of the expectations.

I don't see Florida State going to the SEC. If the Big XII makes it through all of this and the ACC does not, I think FSU and Clemson can be penciled in for the Big XII, with Georgia Tech and North Carolina shortly there after.

I just don't see UNC getting an invite from the BIG 10. I don't think that is in their plans. I think its fairly obvious, they have a road map layed out. I think Mizzouri going to the SEC put a little bit of a kink in their plans. I think they intended to have Nebraska join as #12 in Phase 1 of the BIG 10 expansion, I think they had Phase 2 pretty much go according to plan with Maryland and Rutgers. I think Phase 3... the final phase... was to invite Missouri as #15, and hopefully by that time, the Big XII, Big East, and ACC were all either collapsed or on the verge of total collapse, and convice Notre Dame to be the 16th team. I don't think this is the exact route they would have wanted to take with Notre Dame, but when ND already comes out and said that they are concerened about the staying power of the ACC, I think the BIG 10 is feeling more confident about eventually getting ND. To be honest, I don't think Mizzouri is completely out of the question for the BIG 10. It sounds crazy and I know Mizzou is very happy being in the SEC, but I think they would still prefer the BIG 10. I think they would like to be back in the same conference as Nebraska, and I think they like that the BIG 10 is a 2 sport conference. I also think they know they can compete in the BIG 10 better than the SEC. Not only that, the BTN is a success year 'round... not just during football season. Something that the SEC is going to have trouble competing with.