2014 NCAA College Basketball "Bracketology"

[DaRadniz29]

So, last night I was working on starting this topic and had everything ready to go, but my internet decided to lag and then my browser froze before I could press the post button. It wouldn't have mattered much but had a bit of info typed out. So, I'm trying this again, and maybe a little different know that I've had more time to think.

If you've frequented these boards the last couple of years, you know that each year of the past two years I've created Tournament Bracket wallpaper for the NCAA Tournament, if you don't remember here ya go: 2013 NCAA Tournament Wallpaper Thread. If you are wondering, yes I hope to be doing it again this year. I'm already setting up the bracket buttons and such. It will be a little different this year and hopefully using my improved editing skills. Now that my guides in gimp work, it's much easier to align items, thankfully.

In addition I also am a big fan of brackets and tournaments. So I've decided to try my hand at bracketology and projecting who the committee will select for the tournament. Since there's still a month of regular season basketball to go these are only best guesses based on current standings.

I've picked my 68 teams and seeded them. I've tried to stay as close to the bracketing rules as possible. A quick rundown of them follows. Then while I figure out the best way to display the brackets, I'll post the top teams and some interesting matchups that I've selected.

I'm no Lunardi or Palm, and don't claim to be, I do this for fun. Every year we hear the committee say RPI isn't taken into as much consideration as people think, even though quite a few people disagree. While I know what the RPI is, figuring out how it factors into the committee's determination was and is a bit of a challenge.

I'll make a second post with the Bracketing rules and my matchup breakdowns.

Feel free to post yours as well if you do this as well, would be cool to see some other selections and matchups.

[DaRadniz29]

Here's a quick rundown of the bracketing guidelines.

- No Remaches in the First Four or Round of 64.

- If two teams have met previously:

1 meeting: Cannot meet until Round of 32.

2 meetings: Cannot meet until Sweet Sixteen

3 meetings: Cannot meet until Elite Eight

-Top Teams from same conference will only be separated if they fall in the top 4 line (1-16 on the full list).

-Only top 4 teams in each bracket are prevented from a home court disadvantage, instead of the top 5.

(So, if I've read this correctly: A 12-seed could have a home court advantage over a 5 seed)

-Sub Regional sites are not set to specific Regions, giving more flexibility to put top teams closer to home.

First Four Site: Dayton.

Sub Regional Sites: Buffalo, Milwaukee, Orlando, Raleigh, San Antonio, Spokane, St. Louis.

Regional Sites: Anaheim, Indianapolis, Memphis, New York.

I think that's it. I tried to stay as close as possible to the above rules, but if I missed something let me know. I guess you could say it's who I believe the committee will select, but again, purely guess work, based on standings, etc. Here it goes:

My top selections:

Top 4 teams (1 Line):

#1 Syracuse (East Region)

#2 Arizona ( West Region)

#3 Florida (South Regions)

#4 Wichita St. (Midwest Region)

Setting up a Final Four: East vs Midwest and West vs South.

East Region: #1 Syracuse, #2 Villanova, #3Duke, #4 Ohio St.

West Region: #1 Arizona, #2 San Diego St., #3 Iowa St., #4 Wisconsin

South Region: #1 Florida, #2 Cincinnati, #3 Virginia, #4 Texas

Midwest Region: #1 Wichita St., #2 Michigan St., #3 Kansas, #4 Kentucky

First Four:

South: #16 Coastal Carolina vs #16 Robert Morris

Midwest: #16 Chattanooga vs #16 Southern University

West: #11 Providence vs #11 Clemson

South: #12 Missouri vs #12 BYU

A few matchups:

East:

#5 UCLA vs #12 Delaware

The Fightin' Blue Hens need to win the Colonial, to get in, but considering they keep winning with two of their top players suspended, it's theirs to lose.

South:

#8 Virginia Commonwealth vs #9 Kansas St.

A interesting matchup. VCU has been a tough out for a lot teams. Lookout K-St.

West:

#7 Stanford vs #10 Southern Methodist

SMU is hot right now. If Stanford gets in, SMU could pose a problem for the Cardinal.

Midwest:

#7 Creighton vs #10 Connecticut

I really want to see this matchup. UCONN has been a power in the NCAA, and Creighton just keeps winning.

I made this first draft tournament prior to today's games, and Creighton has moved up, but I have yet to adjust it. So the Creighton-UCONN matchup might just be a though now, but maybe they could meet in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight, etc.

[VictoriaGooner]

Looking forward to your 2014 March Madness wallpaper...and agree with your top four seeds. I can see Wichita State making the Final Four again this year.

Do you use Photoshop for your NCAA wallpaper?

[Burkell007]

Zero chance creighton is a 7 seed, def a top 4 seed in any reagon. I could see them playing uconn in a 3rd round game as a 2-7 matchup. I don't see Clemson even close, I'd put Tennessee, St john's or Dayton in that spot.

[dfwabel]

Zero chance creighton is a 7 seed, def a top 4 seed in any reagon. I could see them playing uconn in a 3rd round game as a 2-7 matchup. I don't see Clemson even close, I'd put Tennessee, St john's or Dayton in that spot.

You realize that he made that statement three weeks ago and has not updated it?

[Burkell007]

Zero chance creighton is a 7 seed, def a top 4 seed in any reagon. I could see them playing uconn in a 3rd round game as a 2-7 matchup. I don't see Clemson even close, I'd put Tennessee, St john's or Dayton in that spot.

You realize that he made that statement three weeks ago and has not updated it?

Nope I thought it was a new thread....but now it don't seem so far off, condensing where things stood back when he posted that.

[DaRadniz29]

Hey, this thread is getting some notice, sweet. I thought I might have made it a bit early, but I was bored . I actually updated my picks on paper yesterday/early this morning, but decided to wait to post them here until after today's game. I may have to alter them a bit from the afternoon games after Syracuse and Sparty lost.

Yeah, now Creighton has bumped up to at least a top 4, in any region. Syracuse's loss to Virginia may have bumped them to a number 2 seed. Florida, Wichita St., Arizona, Kansas and Duke are my top five, but not necessarily in that order.

Right now, I have Wichita St. at the #3 or #4 overall, still a one seed, but what hurts them is if Kansas moves into the number one seed line, the Jayhawks have the best RPI and SOS in the nation, whereas the Shockers, while undefeated have not beat a ranked opponent all season. If Wichita St. wins the MVC Tournament, they'll get a one seed, but it will likely be a low number one. Should any team falter in their Conference Tournament, and Wichita St. holds serve, they could move up.

Not a huge fan of the RPI, but it's what they use, so I guess we're stuck with it until they come up with something better else.

I also don't think Delaware will be a number 12 seed, unless they win their Conference Tournament and get help from other teams.

VictoriaGooner - Thanks, the template is made and ready to go, just waiting for the bids to be decided. I use GIMP to make pretty much everything including the bracket wallpaper.

I might post a sneak peak of the wallpaper tonight after the games are complete - not all filled in, but just a little preview of what it's going to look like so I can get some C&C and adjust anything that is needed.

[DaRadniz29]

Here's a quick preview of the 2014 NCAA Tournament Bracket Wallpaper. Bracket layout is set. The brown or tan background will not be the final background. I'm still trying to decide if I should go with the background from last year's tournament or something a little different.

The first is what part of the bracket boxes will look like. Second photo is the Regional Finals, Final Four and Championship boxes. It might look a little plain from last year, and yeah it might be a bit simplistic, but I feel the whole look will be more streamlined, once it's complete.

[VictoriaGooner]

Hey, this thread is getting some notice, sweet. I thought I might have made it a bit early, but I was bored . I actually updated my picks on paper yesterday/early this morning, but decided to wait to post them here until after today's game. I may have to alter them a bit from the afternoon games after Syracuse and Sparty lost.

Yeah, now Creighton has bumped up to at least a top 4, in any region. Syracuse's loss to Virginia may have bumped them to a number 2 seed. Florida, Wichita St., Arizona, Kansas and Duke are my top five, but not necessarily in that order.

Right now, I have Wichita St. at the #3 or #4 overall, still a one seed, but what hurts them is if Kansas moves into the number one seed line, the Jayhawks have the best RPI and SOS in the nation, whereas the Shockers, while undefeated have not beat a ranked opponent all season. If Wichita St. wins the MVC Tournament, they'll get a one seed, but it will likely be a low number one. Should any team falter in their Conference Tournament, and Wichita St. holds serve, they could move up.

Not a huge fan of the RPI, but it's what they use, so I guess we're stuck with it until they come up with something better else.

I also don't think Delaware will be a number 12 seed, unless they win their Conference Tournament and get help from other teams.

VictoriaGooner - Thanks, the template is made and ready to go, just waiting for the bids to be decided. I use GIMP to make pretty much everything including the bracket wallpaper.

I might post a sneak peak of the wallpaper tonight after the games are complete - not all filled in, but just a little preview of what it's going to look like so I can get some C&C and adjust anything that is needed.

DaRadniz29 - how do you like using GIMP? Does it perform well compared to Photoshop?

Btw, looking forward to the 2014 March Madness wallpaper mate!!!

[Billy B]

Man, if Illinois had any type of consistent offense, they'd be a solid tourney team this year. Today's upset at Michigan State was the 4th straight game they've held their opponent under 50 points. But at least they'll make the NIT where they can't even host a game. Michigan State has been really confusing to me this season. I thought they were one of the top teams in the country earlier, but they've been banged up the entire season. Still wouldn't be surprised to see them make a run in the tournament, especially if Gary Harris is on top of his game.

[DaRadniz29]

Hey, this thread is getting some notice, sweet. I thought I might have made it a bit early, but I was bored . I actually updated my picks on paper yesterday/early this morning, but decided to wait to post them here until after today's game. I may have to alter them a bit from the afternoon games after Syracuse and Sparty lost.

Yeah, now Creighton has bumped up to at least a top 4, in any region. Syracuse's loss to Virginia may have bumped them to a number 2 seed. Florida, Wichita St., Arizona, Kansas and Duke are my top five, but not necessarily in that order.

Right now, I have Wichita St. at the #3 or #4 overall, still a one seed, but what hurts them is if Kansas moves into the number one seed line, the Jayhawks have the best RPI and SOS in the nation, whereas the Shockers, while undefeated have not beat a ranked opponent all season. If Wichita St. wins the MVC Tournament, they'll get a one seed, but it will likely be a low number one. Should any team falter in their Conference Tournament, and Wichita St. holds serve, they could move up.

Not a huge fan of the RPI, but it's what they use, so I guess we're stuck with it until they come up with something better else.

I also don't think Delaware will be a number 12 seed, unless they win their Conference Tournament and get help from other teams.

VictoriaGooner - Thanks, the template is made and ready to go, just waiting for the bids to be decided. I use GIMP to make pretty much everything including the bracket wallpaper.

I might post a sneak peak of the wallpaper tonight after the games are complete - not all filled in, but just a little preview of what it's going to look like so I can get some C&C and adjust anything that is needed.

DaRadniz29 - how do you like using GIMP? Does it perform well compared to Photoshop?

Btw, looking forward to the 2014 March Madness wallpaper mate!!!

I enjoy GIMP. It's performance is great. Most of the glitches I've run into are minimal and seem to be the result of me just taxing my computer or leaving GIMP open during a period of inactivity. A restart of gimp seems to fix any glitches.

Unfortunately I've only used photoshop a few times, and am not all that familiar with it, so I can't give an accurate account of how it compares to GIMP. Though from others I've heard that use both, they say photoshop can do some more advanced things, but GIMP is usually complimented as the "Free Photoshop".

[VictoriaGooner]

I've heard many good things about GIMP and I think I might give it a try. I just can't see myself spending large amounts of money on Photoshop. Love the free option

[DaRadniz29]

Man, if Illinois had any type of consistent offense, they'd be a solid tourney team this year. Today's upset at Michigan State was the 4th straight game they've held their opponent under 50 points. But at least they'll make the NIT where they can't even host a game. Michigan State has been really confusing to me this season. I thought they were one of the top teams in the country earlier, but they've been banged up the entire season. Still wouldn't be surprised to see them make a run in the tournament, especially if Gary Harris is on top of his game.

Yeah. Illinois is at 74 in the RPI Ranking, but 2-7 vs the RPI top 50 and 6-9 vs the RPI top 100. However, they're not completely eliminated just yet. If they beat Michigan and Iowa, they will probably become a team on bubble watch.

If the standings finish the way it is now, Minnesota and Illinois would play each other in the first round of the Conference Tournament, with the winner getting a boost in chances at making tournament. Both teams should just try and win the conference tournament and steal the automatic bid, but if not, Minnesota needs to make it the semi-final game, making there will pretty much solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament. I say Illinois needs to get to the Conference championship game and they'd probably be in. Of course this is all dependent on what other teams like Oregon, Tennessee, and Missouri do in the final week or the regular season.

It's pretty crazy, Michigan State was set for a two seed and was possibly in grasp for a one seed a couple weeks ago. Now, they're a 4 or even 5 seed. If they win they Conference tournament, depending on what other teams do, Sparty might be able to get back to a two seed. Unless there are some upsets in Conference Tournaments, I don't see Michigan State on the one seed line.

I've heard many good things about GIMP and I think I might give it a try. I just can't see myself spending large amounts of money on Photoshop. Love the free option

Yeah, if I ever do graphic design as a career, I'd definitely want photoshop. Right now though, GIMP does a lot of what I need and without breaking the bank, so that a big plus. Gimp can be daunting, but I will say that when I tried gimp the first time - I had no photoshop or graphic design experience - I learned it and most graphic design by tutorials on the web and this site as well as yout ube videos. A lot of trial and error and just figuring things out on my own too. I don't remember how long I've been doing graphic design as a hobby, but I'd say it's been at least five years. I'm probably better than I give myself credit for, even though it doesn't feel like it

A few days ago, I was feeling like Wichita St. was looking good as a number one seed, now they don't. The really haven't done anything to lose that one seed, but now that Kansas is on the one line, I can see the committee going with this: Arizona, Florida, Villanova or Wisconsin and Kansas as the number one seeds.

What changed? Partly that Kanas has the second best RPI, just behind Arizona and played the toughest schedule in the country. Looking at the RPI, Kansas and the Shockers are not that far off in RPI rank, 2 and 6. However the drastic change is the SOS: Kansas is ranked 1st in Strength of Schedule, while Wichita State is ranked 111th.

I'm just not sure the committee will be willing to put two teams from the same state on the one seed line. Granted, I'm not sure how much emphasis is put on quality wins, but it sounds like it's quite a bit, and if it is, Kansas would get the nod ahead of Wichita St. It also depends on how each team fairs in their conference tournament. It might be one of the those Wichita St. must impress in every game, while Kansas just needs to win. Again, it may not be right, but once again the "who did you play" argument rears it's ugly head. Though, if the Shockers win the tournament, regardless of what other teams on the one line do, the committee will probably have difficult time keeping them off the top seed.

Still working on the seeds right now. Which four schools do you have on the top line?

[VictoriaGooner]

Florida, Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona in that order for #1 seeds

[Burkell007]

Safe to say Oregon is in and not on the Bubble?? well win a game in the conference tourney to be safe,,,,

[Virtual Appliance]

Thru March 7:

First Round Play-in
16. North Dakota v 16. Southern
16. Winthrop v 16. Vermont
13. San Francisco v 13. Xavier
13. St. John's v 13. Cleveland St.

Bracket A
1. Florida v 16. North Dakota/Southern
8. SF Austin v 9. Green Bay
4. Cincinnati v 13. Oregon
5. Kentucky v 12. Toledo
3. Wisconsin v 14. Harvard
6. Southern Miss v 11. Memphis
7. Iowa State v 10. Ohio St.

2. North Carolina v 15. Iona

Bracket B (champion plays Bracket A champ in Final Four)
1. Villanova v 16. New Mexico St.

8. Massachusetts v 9. Texas

4. Gonzaga v 13. St. John's/Cleveland St.
5. BYU v 12. Middle Tennessee St. (BYU is extremely underestimated, they're a Top 25 team)
3. San Diego St. v 14. Boston University
6. Creighton v 11. Eastern Kentucky
7. SMU v 10. Louisiana Tech
2. Kansas v 15 Santa Barbara

Bracket C
1. Arizona v 16. Vermont/Winthrop
8. Georgia St. v 9. Saint Joseph's
4. Duke v 13. UTEP

5. UCLA v 12. Nebraska

3. Syracuse v 14. Towson

6. Michigan St. v 11. Tulsa

7. Connecticut v 10. Dayton

2. Michigan v 15. Davidson

Bracket D

1. Wichita St. v 16. Robert Morris
8. Kansas St. v 9. Arizona St.

4. Louisville v 13. San Francisco/Xavier

5. Oklahoma v 12. Belmont

3. New Mexico v 14. Mercer

6. VCU v 11. North Dakota St.

7. Saint Louis v 10. Arkansas

2. Virginia v. 15. North Carolina Central

[Burkell007]

Thru March 7:

First Round Play-in

16. North Dakota v 16. Southern

16. Winthrop v 16. Vermont

13. San Francisco v 13. Xavier

13. St. John's v 13. Cleveland St.

Bracket A

1. Florida v 16. North Dakota/Southern

8. SF Austin v 9. Green Bay

4. Cincinnati v 13. Oregon

5. Kentucky v 12. Toledo

3. Wisconsin v 14. Harvard

6. Southern Miss v 11. Memphis

7. Iowa State v 10. Ohio St.

2. North Carolina v 15. Iona

Bracket B (champion plays Bracket A champ in Final Four)

1. Villanova v 16. New Mexico St.

8. Massachusetts v 9. Texas

4. Gonzaga v 13. St. John's/Cleveland St.

5. BYU v 12. Middle Tennessee St. (BYU is extremely underestimated, they're a Top 25 team)

3. San Diego St. v 14. Boston University

6. Creighton v 11. Eastern Kentucky

7. SMU v 10. Louisiana Tech

2. Kansas v 15 Santa Barbara

Bracket C

1. Arizona v 16. Vermont/Winthrop

8. Georgia St. v 9. Saint Joseph's

4. Duke v 13. UTEP

5. UCLA v 12. Nebraska

3. Syracuse v 14. Towson

6. Michigan St. v 11. Tulsa

7. Connecticut v 10. Dayton

2. Michigan v 15. Davidson

Bracket D

1. Wichita St. v 16. Robert Morris

8. Kansas St. v 9. Arizona St.

4. Louisville v 13. San Francisco/Xavier

5. Oklahoma v 12. Belmont

3. New Mexico v 14. Mercer

6. VCU v 11. North Dakota St.

7. Saint Louis v 10. Arkansas

2. Virginia v. 15. North Carolina Central

NEVER GONNA HAPPEN!!!! no way the WCC gets 3 in, your on something verry good my friend,,,,,,and georgia st as a 8 seed??? Tulsa as a 11 seed?? give it up.

[BlackBolt3]

Southern can't go to the NCAA's. Alabama State is the highest out of the SWAC that is eligible.

[Virtual Appliance]

First four out (thru 'til yesterday's games):

George Washington Colonials

Georgia Bulldogs

Colorado Buffaloes

Georgetown Hoyas

George George George george

[Burkell007]

First four out (thru 'til yesterday's games):

George Washington Colonials

Georgia Bulldogs

Colorado Buffaloes

Georgetown Hoyas

George George George george

No No No No