2008 NLL Champion's Cup playoffs thread

[Viper]

I know sigs usually go in the Concepts forum, but with the National Lacrosse League playoffs starting next weekend I decided to kill two birds with one thread, and unveil my new v4.1 NLL sig set while I open the Champion's Cup discussion.

Recently I've been posting a lot on both the NLL Insider forum and on the Swarm's official forum The Hive. As you might have guessed by now, I've got this box-lacrosse thing on the brain, and I've got it bad (especially after the Wild's unceremonious early exit from the Stanley Cup playoffs). Of course, I've also got Swarm playoff tickets, as they have a home first-round game for the first time (and with a little luck, could end up hosting the semis and/or finals as well). Anyway, the following is an adaptation of a post I published earlier tonight on both forums.

Looking for an angle on the upcoming Champion's Cup playoffs, I decided to do a little stat research. I pored through the box scores of each team's last five regular-season games to determine which teams were playing the most solid defense down the stretch. I took into account both team defense (in terms of shots-on-goal allowed) and goaltending (in terms of save %) to come up with an adjusted team GAA, which I call the "defensive index" (DI), for each team and its most likely playoff starting goalie. (For Calgary I actually calculated two DI's; more on this later.) Think of the DI as a quick 'n' dirty measure of how each playoff team has performed defensively during the stretch run. Here is the methodology I used:

1. From each game I compiled the team's total shots-on-goal against, and the #1 goalie's total saves and total goals allowed. (Obviously, if the #2 goalie played all 60 minutes of a game, the #1 goalie got a zero for both saves and goals.)
   
2. I then calculated the #1 goalie's save percentage over the course of the five games, though for purposes of computing the DI I expressed it as a goals-allowed percentage (e.g. a .200 GA% instead of a .800 SV%).
   
3. Finally, I computed the team's DI by multiplying its total shots allowed over the five games by the goalie's GA% and dividing by 5.
   

If you really want to see all the raw numbers from each game, just do what I did and peruse the box scores on NLL.com. But if you just want to cut to the chase, here are the results of my defensive analysis, presented on a matchup-by-matchup basis. I'll do the Western playoff teams in the first post, and then the Eastern playoff teams. Later this week I'll post the sigs for the non-playoff teams, including Arizona and Boston who sat out this season.

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Total SOG against, last 5 games: 259

Matt Disher's GA%, last 5 games: 0.213 (0.787 SV%)

Lumberjax DI w/ Disher: 11.01

Total SOG against, last 5 games: 277

Anthony Cosmo's GA%, last 5 games: 0.159 (0.841 SV%)

Stealth DI w/ Cosmo: 8.83

Comment: Among the playoff teams, the Stealth are next-to-last in shots allowed (ahead of only Philly), yet are the DI leaders by 0.61 goals over the Titans, and have over a two-goal DI advantage over their first-round opponents! This is a testament to Anthony Cosmo's netminding wizardry late in the season, as he's posted a save percentage that's almost in hockey territory.

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Total SOG against, last 5 games: 222

Pat Campbell's GA%, last 5 games: 0.227 (0.773 SV%)

Roughnecks' DI w/ Campbell: 10.07

Steve Dietrich's GA%, last 5 games: 0.223 (0.777 SV%)

Roughnecks' DI w/ Dietrich: 9.91

Total SOG against, last 5 games: 210

Gee Nash's GA%, last 5 games: 0.280 (0.720 SV%)

Mammoth DI w/ Nash: 11.76

Comment: With Campbell and Dietrich sharing floor time pretty evenly in the last five games, I decided to compute DI's for both Rigger backstoppers. I guess I needn't have bothered; they are not only nearly identical, but both are nearly two goals better than that of the Mammoth, who will have to rely heavily on their perennial studs Gavin Prout and Brian Langtry to overcome that edge and get them into the West final.

[Viper]

I covered the NLL West semis in the previous post. Now, onto the East semis.

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Total SOG against, last 5 games: 296

Brandon Miller's GA%, last 5 games: 0.184 (0.816 SV%)

Wings' DI w/ Miller: 10.91

Total SOG against, last 5 games: 265

Ken Montour's GA%, last 5 games: 0.2111 (0.789 SV%)

Bandits' DI w/ Montour: 11.16

Comment: Defensively, this matchup is too close to call with only a 0.25 difference between the two teams' DI's. It may come down to which team is best able to overtax the opposing D with a bigger array of weapons. I might even do another post on that angle later this week, but that's for another time.

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Total SOG against, last 5 games: 216

Matt Vinc's GA%, last 5 games: 0.219 (0.781 SV%)

Titans' DI w/ Vinc: 9.44

Total SOG against, last 5 games: 246

Nick Patterson's GA%, last 5 games: 0.236 (0.764 SV%)

Swarm DI w/ Patterson: 11.63

Comment: Ruh-ro. Having watched Patterson all season, I knew he was fading somewhat down the stretch, but only after this number-crunching exercise did I realize how strongly Vinc has come on in the same time frame. More significantly though, the Swarm defense has allowed an average of eight more shots on goal per game than have the Titans in the last five. All told, this results in a defensive edge for the Titans worth over two goals. Minnesota does have a lot more weapons than New York, though (14 Swarm with double-digit points in the regular season, to the Titans' 9), and they seem to have finally kicked their nasty third-quarter nosedive habit. Will that be enough to overcome the stout Titans' D? We shall see.

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I will probably do another round of defensive stat-crunching for the division finals, and one more for the CC final. In the meantime, the floor is open. Discuss...

[Sabrejeff]

Two things on the Bandits.

1) I love the logo you included. Ever since 1996 when they changed to that, I've wanted that logo on their jerseys. I hate how the wordmark is always attached to it. Incidentally, San Jose's and Calgary's logos should be without their wordmarks.

2) If you did two goalies for Calgary, you definitely should've done two goalies for Buffalo. Their minutes are almost identical. And if you chose only one, it should've been Thompson and not Montour. Thompson is much more likely to play tomorrow.

[budbowl77]

Go Titans!

[DarkJourney]

Go Stealth!

[KevinMcD]

Bandits to the Semis! 14-12 win over Philly.

[Sabrejeff]

Bandits to the Semis! 14-12 win over Philly.

It was Thompson in net as I expected too. Not that I would've minded Monster though. Both have been solid.

[KevinMcD]

Bandits to the Semis! 14-12 win over Philly.

It was Thompson in net as I expected too. Not that I would've minded Monster though. Both have been solid.

Yep. I don't pay alot of attention to the Bandits but I listened to the 4th quarter and it was exciting, even on the radio. I'll try to get to the game Saturday if I don't work.

[Sabrejeff]

Bandits to the Semis! 14-12 win over Philly.

It was Thompson in net as I expected too. Not that I would've minded Monster though. Both have been solid.

Yep. I don't pay alot of attention to the Bandits but I listened to the 4th quarter and it was exciting, even on the radio. I'll try to get to the game Saturday if I don't work.

Ihhh! Even with Gurtler? Well I guess so since it was pretty intense, anyway.

Yes!!! Try your best to come out. We need a lot more fans in Banditland. Tell your friends too.

[KevinMcD]

Bandits to the Semis! 14-12 win over Philly.

It was Thompson in net as I expected too. Not that I would've minded Monster though. Both have been solid.

Yep. I don't pay alot of attention to the Bandits but I listened to the 4th quarter and it was exciting, even on the radio. I'll try to get to the game Saturday if I don't work.

Ihhh! Even with Gurtler? Well I guess so since it was pretty intense, anyway.

Yes!!! Try your best to come out. We need a lot more fans in Banditland. Tell your friends too.

Well, I go to OP, everybody is into lacrosse. I bet half the school was there today. Gurtlers son goes to my school and is in my class. And we were on the way home from the Bisons game (we got free tix and wanted to go but damn rain out) and had nothing else to listen to on the ride home so we enjoyed it. I should be there Saturday if I don't work.

[Sabrejeff]

Eastern Division Final

Buffalo Bandits vs. New York Titans

Saturday May 10, 7:30 @ HSBC Arena

[Viper]

I was at the Swarm game. Back-and-forth affair, but ultimately it came down to the Titans grabbing a lot more loose balls and rebounds than the Swarm did, especially in the second half. 11-8 final.

On a side note, I was a little disappointed at the crowd. First, the announced attendance was just over 11,000, but I believe that's based on tickets sold, not actual @$$es in the seats, of which there seemed to be a lot fewer than during most regular-season games. Then again the Twins were at home this weekend against Detroit. Second and more disappointingly, the crowd they did get was pretty dead for most of the game. But I guess they have an excuse too: When's the last time any Minnesota pro sports team has hosted a deciding playoff game? As far as I can recall, you'd have to go all the way back to the 1998-99 NFC Championship Game (the infamous "take a knee" game). We've probably completely forgotten how to handle that kind of situation.

Edit - three items added: First, a St. Paul Pioneer Press article about the Swarm loss, and the fact that it came right on the heels of the Wild's early playoff exit: "Neil Diamond and George Michael both perform at [Xcel Energy Center] this summer, within a couple of weeks of each other. We'll have to get them together and rig up some sort of a contest — maybe a playoff in which they both sing encores and the audience decides. That would be a satisfying playoff experience. At last."

Second, the last quarterfinal match ends in a shocker: Portland upsets San Jose 18-16. This means, among other things, that the Swarm could have hosted the final if they had only made it that far!

Also, lest I forget, here are the sigs for all the non-playoff teams. I didn't make one for Arizona because that club is reportedly folding, but I did make one for next year's expansion team, the Boston Blazers:

[DarkJourney]

It seems we are looking at at Buffalo-Calgary Final but you never know with Colorado, Minnesota & San Jose getting upset at home

[Sabrejeff]

On a side note, I was a little disappointed at the crowd. First, the announced attendance was just over 11,000, but I believe that's based on tickets sold, not actual @$$es in the seats, of which there seemed to be a lot fewer than during most regular-season games. Then again the Twins were at home this weekend against Detroit.

It's actually pretty much always the case. The Bandits averaged about 15,000 people per game this season, and only got 9,000 on Saturday. It must be hard promoting it in a week's time because it's happened for our last couple of semifinal home games.

All in all, the NLL had a pretty good weekend. Three two-goal games and a three-goal game. The Bandits/Wings game was painfully nerve wracking. The Bandits had a miserable first quarter and threw the ball all over the place. The first thing I thought was, "here we go again!" But I chewed my nails down to my wrists until all was said and done, especially with a bunch of lead changes.

For as much as I-want-to-see/know the Bandits will win on Saturday, it would be great for the league to have their Championship game at "The World's Most Famous Arena"... especially since it's going to be on ESPN2. I hope we get a well officiated game.

[Sabrejeff]

Our goalie carousel is still spinning, even in the playoffs. Darris announced that Ken Montour will be starting in net on Saturday. I actually don't mind the decision as both goalies have been stellar this season. It's a questionable choice, however, considering Monster got the loss versus the Titans this season, while Thompson got the win. Although one would point out our lack of scoring for Kenny in the meeting at MSG.

[Top Shelf]

2008 East Division Champions

[Viper]

And the Champion's Cup final is set: The Portland LumberJax vs. the Buffalo Bandits.

I hear there's already been some kind of fan drive underway to have the LumberJax wear their plaid alternate jerseys in the final if they make it there. Now that they have, I expect this to soon reach a fever pitch.

[Sabrejeff]

And the Champion's Cup final is set: The Portland LumberJax vs. the Buffalo Bandits.

I hear there's already been some kind of fan drive underway to have the LumberJax wear their plaid alternate jerseys in the final if they make it there. Now that they have, I expect this to soon reach a fever pitch.

I don't know. The Bandits broke out their blacks' for the first time at home this season tonight against New York. And it was just so the Titans couldn't wear their oranges' since they were undefeated in them. I could see that happening again, even though the Bandits whites' are far superior to their blacks' (the worst uniforms in all of sports, I call them).

[Viper]

Another thing just occurred to me: If the Jax manage to win the final, they would be the champs with a losing overall record (9-10)! That would have to be a first in any pro sport.

[Gary]

Another thing just occurred to me: If the Jax manage to win the final, they would be the champs with a losing overall record (9-10)! That would have to be a first in any pro sport.

Arena Football League's Chicago Rush won the Arena Bowl with a regular season record of 7-9 so it's been done before, plus there are a few Sting players on the Jax team, Dan Dawson being one of them. If they win it would be nice, but it will be nice to see them next year(hopefully)