Division 1 College Conference Realignment

[Burmy]

1 hour ago, LMU said:

Sad that we only get one year of the Washington State/Gonzaga all-Palouse WCC rivalry.

Maybe the Zags (and possibly Saint Mary's) come on board as non-football Olympic sports members?

[nickp91]

UNLV and  Nevada should get a hard look Kinda surprised UNLV wasn't in the first announcement

[crashcarson15]

Personal opinion — I don’t really buy that this is the death of the MWC and would expect the new Pac-6 to look elsewhere. IMO, the value play of the Pac-# is some combination of:

1. Having a couple games for a TV deal each week that are more compelling than what other non-power conferences can produce
2. Having a strength of conference on par with what the AAC was before the latest round of realignment

 

Part of (1) is non-conference scheduling — one common thread of these six schools is that all of them have multiple home games scheduled with P4 schools through 2030. In the first five years of any TV deal, the partner will inherit scheduled Pac-6 home games against …

• BYU and Texas Tech in 2026 (+ potentially Oregon)
• Arizona, Kansas, Missouri and Washington in 2027
• Arizona State, Cincinnati and Stanford in 2028 (+ potentially Oregon)
• Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in 2029 (+ potentially Washington)
• Houston, Kansas and Ole Miss in 2030 (+ potentially Oregon)

To be fair to UNLV, it is increasing its profile in non-conference scheduling, but this is where I look at Memphis and Tulane as really strong potential fits, as both have regularly gotten Big XII and SEC teams to visit in recent years.

 

 

The intersection of (1) and (2) though is that I don’t think the new Pac-# really should go past 8 or 9 schools. I know large conferences are en vogue these days, but I think the value play here is entirely different — the major conferences are both trying to set up 2-3 “games of the week” NFL style, with a backlog of other games to fill the cable channels.

 

In contrast, a non-power league should probably be more focused on (1) establishing superior resumes for its champion compared to other non-power teams, and (2) getting 1 game each week that’s worthy of attention. You’re naturally going to get that each week, unless nobody in the conference is able to establish itself. Having an 8-team conference would mean a 7-game league schedule, which I actually think may be more of a feature than a bug. It gives schools the opportunity to schedule multiple P4 opponents each year, and outside of football, there should be plenty of opportunities to get the P4 west coast schools on the schedule.

 

 

I know there’s a lot of “why would teams leave the AAC?” going around, but the American isn’t what it once was in a way that I think might matter — both in the combination of playoff qualification, but also for setting schools up for the next round of realignment if/when the ACC starts to break apart. Yes, the AAC has taken 7 of the 10 NY6 bowl slots, but that was largely on the back of schools who have since left the league (Cincinnati, Houston and UCF; plus defending champion SMU). That SMU went 11-2 last year with only losses to P5 schools and was passed over for a C-USA school should be a bit of a warning sign that the AAC isn’t in as strong of a position as it used to be. There’s now a lot of dead weight in the AAC if you’re looking at it from the perspective of a school like Memphis, both in football and basketball, and I think that definitely could make a move west more appealing.

 

 

Personally, I see this going one of a few ways (ranked in order of preference probably for the Pac-6):

1. The Pac-6 strips away a couple AAC schools (Memphis and Tulane the obvious ones), setting up a strong 8- league
2. The Pac-6 is able to entirely court the top end of the AAC teams to leave, creating a true national conference and making South Florida comfortable with a move
3. The Pac-6 stays pat for now in football, probably goes after Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s as non-football members in the interim, and waits for penalties for MWC poaching to go down; this comes with the downside of not being CFP eligible in 2026, but pulling UNLV in + 1 other MWC school

Either of the first two come with the opportunity to add UNLV, if that program continues its growth and can separate itself from Nevada.

 

 

But if they can make the sell to Memphis and Tulane — two strong programs, with good facilities, and especially with Memphis likely holding a feeling of unrest toward their current situation — I don’t think this becomes as disruptive as it might sound. Personally, I don’t see the argument for either of the Montana or Dakota schools to move up to FBS level, but the MWC should be able to pretty easily backfill with New Mexico State and UTEP to get to 9 all-sports and 10 football members again.

 

Lots of different things out there, but I think the best chance for any of these schools to have a seat at the table for the next realignment wave is to be recognized as a strong program in the top non-power league — it’s the formula that worked for a good chunk of the AAC schools, and a tight Pac-8 or Pac-9 would seem to have a pretty solid stranglehold on that status.

[WestCoastBias]

I love the new additions to the Pac. OSU and WSU already play home and homes with CSU, Boise, Fresno, and San Diego pretty regularly and they're all pretty similar institutions.

 

However, they need 2 more schools and that's where it gets pretty tricky. Mountain West teams cost a lot of money and UNLV is the only really desirable one left. The AAC lost its best teams to the Big 12 besides Memphis and Tulane but they just don't fit in my opinion. Texas would be great to get into but the only schools left are 3rd tier schools within the state. I don't think Cal and Stanford will want to join a conference with Boise and Fresno, they'll do whatever it takes to join the Big Ten or Big 12 if the ACC implodes. But SMU would definitely be interested. Who really knows if and when Florida State and Clemson are gonna drop that bomb tho to get more realignment going.

 

Anyways, I think it'll be UNLV and most likely UTSA.

[DCarp1231]

Tulane and Memphis and/or UNLV and Nevada could potentially join the PAC-12

 

[McCall]

2 hours ago, DCarp1231 said:

Tulane and Memphis and/or UNLV and Nevada could potentially join the PAC-12

 

Can't imagine why Memphis or Tulane would want to move to the Pac. It's no longer a higher rated conference than The American. Both these schools, IMO, are at the top of the list for the next wave of Group of 5 schools to jump to a Power Conference (I'd say along with probably San Diego State). The Big XII and ACC are in line should they look to add or replace members.

[DCarp1231]

A bunch of less than reliable “sources” have been claiming that Tulane and Memphis are super close to an agreement to join the PAC-X.

 

They’ve also been claiming that the AAC is trying to get Air Force in its ranks.