Olympic Men's Hockey Chances That...

[kevsim1]

Thought that it'd be a neat idea to post a few scenarios happening in the Olympic men's hockey. Your job is to decide how likely each one is. Any way of replying is fine, whether with a percentage, the odds that you'd have, or just a 'highly unlikely' comment. I'll start off with 3 today, give it a couple days. If it catches, I'll keep it going.

1. Chances that the US wins their group (Slovenia, Slovakia and Russia). Can they get by the Russians for the bye?

2. Chances a game will have a difference of 7+ goals.

3. Chances Norway, Latvia, Austria or Slovenia advance to the final 8. Everyone has the same old pick. Can any of those pull something off to take a team like the Swiss' spot?


Thoughts?

G

Good Found You This, The Your In Go Number This

[JackieMoon]

1. No, Russia will win Group A.

2. Maybe, if so it will involve Slovenia or Latvia.

3. Norway, maybe.

This Olympics, I think we will see a European Final. My guess is Russia vs. Sweden/Finland. Whatever the media says, I do not believe. The US team has no shot this time. Possibly a top 5 if they are lucky.

[IceCap]

*jumps on Team Solvenia's bandwagon as far as Group A is concerned*

[CityOfWalrus]

1. No, Russia will win Group A.

2. Maybe, if so it will involve Slovenia or Latvia.

3. Norway, maybe.

This Olympics, I think we will see a European Final. My guess is Russia vs. Sweden/Finland. Whatever the media says, I do not believe. The US team has no shot this time. Possibly a top 5 if they are lucky.

Well Russia isn't European so there goes that.

[Still MIGHTY]

1. No, Russia will win Group A.

2. Maybe, if so it will involve Slovenia or Latvia.

3. Norway, maybe.

This Olympics, I think we will see a European Final. My guess is Russia vs. Sweden/Finland. Whatever the media says, I do not believe. The US team has no shot this time. Possibly a top 5 if they are lucky.

Well Russia isn't European so there goes that.

Um... except that it is?

[Funky Bunky]

1. No, Russia will win Group A.

2. Maybe, if so it will involve Slovenia or Latvia.

3. Norway, maybe.

This Olympics, I think we will see a European Final. My guess is Russia vs. Sweden/Finland. Whatever the media says, I do not believe. The US team has no shot this time. Possibly a top 5 if they are lucky.

Well Russia isn't European so there goes that.

Russia is bicontinental, as it's in both Europe and Asia. So, you're wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_transcontinental_countries

My Russian ancestors weren't Asian...

[JackieMoon]

LOL

[HedleyLamarr]

I assume that one of the second-place teams will get a bye to the quarterfinals, right? 12 teams playing, the top 4 (the 3 group winners plus the best 2nd-place team) get a bye, and seeds 5-12 play the opening round of the elimination portion. So the US can still get a bye even if they lose to Russia.

We'll definitely see a couple games with a huge blowout. Especially in these third games when goal differential is on the minds of the coaching staffs.

I think we're gonna see a slew of upsets or near-upsets, mainly early on. I think the international ice size will be a big challenge for the players that have played on NHL-sized rinks for a vast majority of their hockey careers.

I'm mostly curious to see which international player earns an NHL contract because of their play in the Olympics. Norway's Zuccarello was impressive enough to earn a contract with the Rangers.

[OnWis97]

12 teams would only be 4 byes.

[HedleyLamarr]

Isn't that what I said?

[OnWis97]

D'oh...

I was thinking there were four groups (in which case there would be no second-place bye)

[JRB14]

Most of the guys on Russia (okay, half) are KHL. Not saying that Russia didn't pick the best available players regardless of age, but any KHL player would not have made Canada, and most wouldn't make the American team. US gets past Russia, but not past Finland or Canada. They'll play in a medal game.

Canada blew out Latvia 16-0 in Vancouver 2010. Latvia didn't even register 16 shots. I think Canada is even stronger than in Vancouver. If there's a rematch of this game, I think Canada has enough to push 20 (maybe?).

I don't think any of these teams are top-8 worthy, I think they make up the bottom four. But there is only 12 teams, maybe one sneaks in.

[TorinK92]

Most of the guys on Russia (okay, half) are KHL. Not saying that Russia didn't pick the best available players regardless of age, but any KHL player would not have made Canada, and most wouldn't make the American team. US gets past Russia, but not past Finland or Canada. They'll play in a medal game.

Canada blew out Latvia 16-0 in Vancouver 2010. Latvia didn't even register 16 shots. I think Canada is even stronger than in Vancouver. If there's a rematch of this game, I think Canada has enough to push 20 (maybe?).

I don't think any of these teams are top-8 worthy, I think they make up the bottom four. But there is only 12 teams, maybe one sneaks in.

That was the womens tournament against Slovakia, not Latvia and it was 18-0. Latvia's worst loss in men's at the 2010 tournament was 8-2 to Russia. I think they'll have a similar result against Canada, but they won't let in 15+ goals.

[kevsim1]

Not bad here. After seeing everyone play once here, I'll share what 1 thought, and add 5 more:

1: I agree that the Russians will top the US for #1. Also, yep, the US will get the 4th bye (non-division winner bye)

2. Well, we saw everyone play. The 4 weaker teams looked decent. I'll say that it won't happen now, but keep an eye on the US-Slovenia game.

3. I'm very tempted to take Norway over Switzerland, but I think I'm gonna stay away from that. Switzerland and Slovakia in.

Well, now for questions 4,5,6,7 and 8.

4. Michael Grabner scores 6 goals in the tourney. He has 3 at the moment, Canada, Norway and at least 1 more game to go.

5. Finland maintains an edge in goal differential vs Canada going into their matchup. Finland is +4, Canada +2, and they'll swap opponents. Finland to take on the Norwegians, while Canada plays Austria.

6. Latvia gets within 3 goals in their last 2 divisional games.

7. Phil Kessel gets at least 1 point for every game remaining for the USA.

8. Canada's top line (Crosby, Carter, Kunitz) scores more goals than Canada's defence. Top Line 0-2 Defence.

[JRB14]

Michael Grabner will end with three. He scored 0 today, and he's playing Canada next up. They'll move on, but Canada most likely wont allow 3 goals, let alone allow 3 goals to Grabner alone. I think Grabner cools off after being shut down by Canada, which plays a role in getting the Fins out earlier than their maximum potential would carry them.

Finland also won't score the five goals required to even their goal differential up with Canada. They'll fall short of Canada's goal differential by the end of the first two games, and lose the third.

Latvia was shut out by the Swiss, and that was the easy game offensively, in my opinion. They're going to oppose Zdeno Chara on defense for the Czech and Henrik Lundqvist in net for Sweeden. Both their defense and netminders are no name players, and the Czech Republicans and the Swedes bring a bigger challenge. I don't predict they don't score a single goal in Sochi, but they won't score three.

WARNING: Might seem biased, probably is. Leafs fan writing, you've been warned. But Kessel is one of the leagues top scorers. I don't think that one point is too tall of an order for him. He has been good to the Leafs, and he has been good for the Americans. No reason to think otherwise.

Canada has the best forwards in Sochi. To think that any defense would score more (even the best defense) is crazy. Right now, it's 4-4, Jeff Carter netted three, Getzlaf had the sixth, and Doughty and Weber each had one to add to the defenses previous total of two. The offense will score much more than the defense from this point on.

Really like what you're doing here, it's fun. Keep it up until the end of the gold medal game!

[kevsim1]

Michael Grabner will end with three. He scored 0 today, and he's playing Canada next up. They'll move on, but Canada most likely wont allow 3 goals, let alone allow 3 goals to Grabner alone. I think Grabner cools off after being shut down by Canada, which plays a role in getting the Fins out earlier than their maximum potential would carry them.

Finland also won't score the five goals required to even their goal differential up with Canada. They'll fall short of Canada's goal differential by the end of the first two games, and lose the third.

Latvia was shut out by the Swiss, and that was the easy game offensively, in my opinion. They're going to oppose Zdeno Chara on defense for the Czech and Henrik Lundqvist in net for Sweeden. Both their defense and netminders are no name players, and the Czech Republicans and the Swedes bring a bigger challenge. I don't predict they don't score a single goal in Sochi, b out they won't score three.

WARNING: Might seem biased, probably is. Leafs fan writing, you've been warned. But Kessel is one of the leagues top scorers. I don't think that one point is too tall of an order for him. He has been good to the Leafs, and he has been good for the Americans. No reason to think otherwise.

Canada has the best forwards in Sochi. To think that any defense would score more (even the best defense) is crazy. Right now, it's 4-4, Jeff Carter netted three, Getzlaf had the sixth, and Doughty and Weber each had one to add to the defenses previous total of two. The offense will score much more than the defense from this point on.

Really like what you're doing here, it's fun. Keep it up until the end of the gold medal game!

[Cosmic]

^^^^ Chara is Slovakian, not Czech.

[kevsim1]

^^^^ Chara is Slovakian, not Czech.

Seems like someone...Czechs the facts around here!

Made it too painfully obvious, but there ya go.

[JRB14]

Oh my god... that was lame

But no, I guess I didn't, myself, and I should have. My mistake, but Girgensons can't get past Ondrej Pavelec alone, and no one on Latvia can help him. Masalskis played great against the Swiss, though, too bad that doesn't help them offensively whatsoever.

[JackieMoon]

^^^^ Chara is Slovakian, not Czech.

Well he was born Czech Slovakian lol