MLB Rookie of the Year Picks

[VitaminD]

NL: Ryan Howard. I just don't get this "he only played half a season" nonsense. Hitting .287 with 21 HR (4th on the team) in 86 games? Those'll be phenomenal numbers if he can do that over a full season. He filled in for the most expensive bat on the team, and filled in capably. He hasn't been a disappointment in the field, either. How many clutch hits does he have in that half-season?

AL: [tie] Huston Street, Robinson Cano. Both stepped into big holes in their respective teams, and have flourished, even thrived in the cauldron of a playoff chase.

[Jigga]

Can someone please explain to me how a guy batting .230 can be the Rookie of the Year?  Anyone?  Bueller?  Anyone?

If an AL pitcher, who has a batting average of .000, can win the ROY award, a guy batting .230 can too.

--Roger "Time?" Clemente.

I hope you were kidding...how is that logical?

How is it not?

--Roger "Time?" Clemente.

Because a pitcher's responsibilty is to pitch, not to bat. They only bat in Interleage games, and they don't prepare much for it during the season.

If a pitcher had a sub .500 record would he get the ROY? No, so why should a sub par batter?

[Jigga]

I don't see how you could pick Francouer over Howard without being ignorant. Francouer is simply media hype. He got off to a great start at the plate and in the outfield. But in September alone, his average has dropped 34 points. When the Phillies played the Braves, Francouer had 1 RBI in 7 games, misjudged 3-4 balls in Rightfield, and made some poor throws as well. Meanwhile, Howard has hit a MLB rookie record 10 home runs in September. One of them being a 10th inning grand slam to beat Francouers Braves. In just 55 more at-bats, Howard has 7 more homeruns, 13 more RBI, and 10 more runs scored.

Tavares on the other hand has been critical for Houston all season. I would not be upset if he got it.

If you had just left off that first sentence, you would sounded less like a homer, and an idiot. Look, Howard's a fine choice for ROY, but so is Francouer. Don't be a hater, just state your case for your boy. Just look a VD's post...that's how you do it.

[VitaminD]

I don't see how you could pick Francouer over Howard without being ignorant. Francouer is simply media hype. He got off to a great start at the plate and in the outfield. But in September alone, his average has dropped 34 points. When the Phillies played the Braves, Francouer had 1 RBI in 7 games, misjudged 3-4 balls in Rightfield, and made some poor throws as well. Meanwhile, Howard has hit a MLB rookie record 10 home runs in September. One of them being a 10th inning grand slam to beat Francouers Braves. In just 55 more at-bats, Howard has 7 more homeruns, 13 more RBI, and 10 more runs scored.

Tavares on the other hand has been critical for Houston all season. I would not be upset if he got it.

If you had just left off that first sentence, you would sounded less like a homer, and an idiot. Look, Howard's a fine choice for ROY, but so is Francouer. Don't be a hater, just state your case for your boy. Just look a VD's post...that's how you do it.

Oh yeah! Thanks, Jigga - I forgot to add this:

FRANCOEUR SUCKS, and his name is too hard to spell! Same for Langerhans. And... YOU SUCK TOO! NYAAH!

Phew, glad that's over. Now, carry on ever'body...

^^ means I'm kidding for those who'll take this seriously. Thanks for the nice words, Jigga.

[BBTV]

He hasn't been a disappointment in the field, either.

Wait until next year when he's attempting to play left field in the absense of the hopefully long-gone Pat "the (April - August) bat" Burrell. Unless they scrap that experiment again, and he's relegated to being Thome's caddy again.

[PhilaLogos]

I don't see how you could pick Francouer over Howard without being ignorant. Francouer is simply media hype. He got off to a great start at the plate and in the outfield. But in September alone, his average has dropped 34 points. When the Phillies played the Braves, Francouer had 1 RBI in 7 games, misjudged 3-4 balls in Rightfield, and made some poor throws as well. Meanwhile, Howard has hit a MLB rookie record 10 home runs in September. One of them being a 10th inning grand slam to beat Francouers Braves. In just 55 more at-bats, Howard has 7 more homeruns, 13 more RBI, and 10 more runs scored.

Tavares on the other hand has been critical for Houston all season. I would not be upset if he got it.

If you had just left off that first sentence, you would sounded less like a homer, and an idiot. Look, Howard's a fine choice for ROY, but so is Francouer. Don't be a hater, just state your case for your boy. Just look a VD's post...that's how you do it.

I'm not saying that if you dont pick Howard then you are ignorant, that would be stupid and i would be a homer. But taking Francouer over Howard is simply ignorant. Francouer has not been better and has certainly not helped his team the way Howard has, its that simple. Willie Tavares would be a good selection. He is a big reason the Astros have the leg up on the Phils going into tomorrow. But just not Francouer.

[Jigga]

I don't see how you could pick Francouer over Howard without being ignorant.

Okay...fine, but I think you can see how I got the idea from the quoted sentence...

Anyway, I'm starting to come to your side because I think Howard was dealing with a great deal more pressure. Francouer's production was a "surprise" whereas Howard was filling some MAJOR shoes playing in place of Jim Thome and he was under a great deal of pressure to put up numbers, and he did it. Francouer's defense is stellar, Howard is average, but I think Howard's more exciting, a better overall player, and is going to put up massive numbers when the Phils jettison Thome back to Cleveland...lol.

Oh, and I'm STILL waiting for someone to justify their pick of Nick ".234" Swisher.

[RyanB06]

Stats time!

Swisher:

        G   AB  R   H	2B	3B	HR	RBI  TB	BB  SO	SB	CS  OBP  SLG  AVG
2005	130  457	65	107	32  1	21  74	204	55	108  0  1	.321	.446	.234

Cano:

        G   AB  R   H	2B	3B	HR	RBI  TB	BB  SO	SB	CS  OBP  SLG  AVG
2005	131  519	78	153	34  4	14  62	237	16  68  1  3	.318	.457	.295

Swisher has better power numbers (HR and RBI), better OBP, and more walks in a whole lot fewer at-bats than Cano. Yes, Cano's BA is better, which I think is more a product of the lineup Cano is in (thus the dearth of walks). OPS is about the same for both players (767 for Swisher, 775 Cano).

If we use a little statistic called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), we find:

Swisher: 12.7

Cano: 28.3

So while I tried to make a case for Swisher, I inadvertantly made the case for Cano. At least that's what the stats say.

Does that mean I think Cano will be ROY? Nope. My pick?

Joe Mauer, Minnesota. Better BA than Cano (.298), 13 SB, and a 41.2 VORP - best among rookies.

Thanks to Baseball Prospectus for the VORP numbers.

[Jigga]

Stats time!

Swisher:

        G   AB  R   H	2B	3B	HR	RBI  TB	BB  SO	SB	CS  OBP  SLG  AVG
2005	130  457	65	107	32  1	21  74	204	55	108  0  1	.321	.446	.234

Cano:

        G   AB  R   H	2B	3B	HR	RBI  TB	BB  SO	SB	CS  OBP  SLG  AVG
2005	131  519	78	153	34  4	14  62	237	16  68  1  3	.318	.457	.295

Swisher has better power numbers (HR and RBI), better OBP, and more walks in a whole lot fewer at-bats than Cano. Yes, Cano's BA is better, which I think is more a product of the lineup Cano is in (thus the dearth of walks). OPS is about the same for both players (767 for Swisher, 775 Cano).

If we use a little statistic called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), we find:

Swisher: 12.7

Cano: 28.3

So while I tried to make a case for Swisher, I inadvertantly made the case for Cano. At least that's what the stats say.

Does that mean I think Cano will be ROY? Nope. My pick?

Joe Mauer, Minnesota. Better BA than Cano (.298), 13 SB, and a 41.2 VORP - best among rookies.

Thanks to Baseball Prospectus for the VORP numbers.

But I can get stats to say Cano is more deserving because of a much higher BA in many more at-bats, has a higher OPS, is a more disciplined hitter because he strikes out 2/3s as much as Swisher, and has more speed.

I don't think Cano should get it either, I just don't like that people hate on him just because he's a Yank.

Your other points lead me to two other questions:

1) How do we know is considered a "rookie" anyway? I didn't think Mauer was even eligible.

2) How does this VORP thing work for pitchers? I think Huston Street should be the ROY and I'm a big fan of Jesse Crain of Minny.

[PhilaLogos]

and is going to put up massive numbers when the Phils jettison Thome back to Cleveland...lol.

[RyanB06]

But I can get stats to say Cano is more deserving because of a much higher BA in many more at-bats, has a higher OPS, is a more disciplined hitter because he strikes out 2/3s as much as Swisher, and has more speed.

I don't think Cano should get it either, I just don't like that people hate on him just because he's a Yank.

Your other points lead me to two other questions:

1) How do we know is considered a "rookie" anyway? I didn't think Mauer was even eligible.

2) How does this VORP thing work for pitchers? I think Huston Street should be the ROY and I'm a big fan of Jesse Crain of Minny.

Sure, Cano doesn't strike out as much as Swisher, but he doesn't nearly walk enough - Cano's K/BB ratio is close to 6:1, while Swisher's is almost 2:1. Again, that's a product of the offense of both teams combined with philosophy - remember, Swisher's a "Moneyball" product.

As for "rookie" status vis-a-vis Mauer, I think (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) but there's either an at-bat or service time requirement to be considered a "rookie". I want to say it's 150 AB or 50 games in a season (any more than that and you aren't a rookie), but I could be wrong. BP considers Mauer a rookie, so if they say he is, then he must be.

And yes, there's a VORP for pitchers, too:

Street - 33.3

Crain - 25.7

Street's might be higher because he's a closer vs. Crain being a middle reliever, but I don't know the statistic well enough to know for certain. If we look at another stat, Runs Prevented, Street leads there, too - 24.4 to 17.1 for Crain. Again, that's probably because Street's role requires him to do just that - prevent runs.

I'm a fan of Crain, too - 12 wins in middle relief should get him ROY votes. Will he win it? I doubt it, considering the lack of respect middle relievers get these days.

If you've got the time, definitely check Baseball Prospectus's Web site out - it's fascinating reading, that's for sure.

[Jigga]

Sure, Cano doesn't strike out as much as Swisher, but he doesn't nearly walk enough - Cano's K/BB ratio is close to 6:1, while Swisher's is almost 2:1. Again, that's a product of the offense of both teams combined with philosophy - remember, Swisher's a "Moneyball" product.

As for "rookie" status vis-a-vis Mauer, I think (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) but there's either an at-bat or service time requirement to be considered a "rookie". I want to say it's 150 AB or 50 games in a season (any more than that and you aren't a rookie), but I could be wrong. BP considers Mauer a rookie, so if they say he is, then he must be.

And yes, there's a VORP for pitchers, too:

Street - 33.3

Crain - 25.7

Street's might be higher because he's a closer vs. Crain being a middle reliever, but I don't know the statistic well enough to know for certain. If we look at another stat, Runs Prevented, Street leads there, too - 24.4 to 17.1 for Crain. Again, that's probably because Street's role requires him to do just that - prevent runs.

I'm a fan of Crain, too - 12 wins in middle relief should get him ROY votes. Will he win it? I doubt it, considering the lack of respect middle relievers get these days.

If you've got the time, definitely check Baseball Prospectus's Web site out - it's fascinating reading, that's for sure.

I will definitely check out the BP site.

BTW, I think Swisher's going to have a better career than Cano, I just can't see giving the ROY to a guy with a Rob Deer stat line...lots of power, lots of whiffs, and a below average batting average.

[BBTV]

It's official: NL R.O.Y.

Ryan Howard

Thome who?

[BigEd76]

Huston Street got the AL one, FYI....

[Joshawaggie]

As for "rookie" status vis-a-vis Mauer, I think (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) but there's either an at-bat or service time requirement to be considered a "rookie". I want to say it's 150 AB or 50 games in a season (any more than that and you aren't a rookie), but I could be wrong. BP considers Mauer a rookie, so if they say he is, then he must be.

I beileve he lost his rookie status last year...

[EagleFan344]

Howard

[Shumway]

Even though I'm not a Phils fan, and I generally dislike my hometown teams, I hope they don't trade Howard. With Wade gone, the chances have greatly gone down. I might actually like the Phillies if they got rid of Bell and Burrell. Out of all Philly teams, the Phightins are the most tolerable to me.

Edit: Happy belated 500th post to me(this one was 508, so sometime today I passed the mark)

[PeytonManningRocks]

boo! where's the love for Oscar Robles, Jason Repko and Ervin Santana?

[FiddySicks]

Huston Street got the AL one, FYI....

Awesomeness!!! You just watch out for Oak Town in the next few years. If they can hang on to these rookies theyre gonna be unstoppable.

Bummer my boy Swisher didnt win ROY though but oh well, hes still established himself

[Jigga]

Bummer my boy Swisher didnt win ROY though but oh well, hes still established himself

yeah, as a .234 hitter or perhaps as the second coming of Rob Deer