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The Viability of Florida Cities as Sports Markets


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NFL: Dolphins and Bucs are doing bad now, but it's because both teams are in a period of sucking. The Jaguars are in a bad market alltogether.

MLB: Two words: Spring Training.

NBA: The Heat and Magic do great. No reason for either to move.

NHL: I have no idea how the Lightning do good, but the Panthers need to move ASAP. The reason nobody talks about them is due to the Coyotes being in an even worse situation.

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Alright, here's my shot at it, don't take this too seriously.

Tampa Bay: The Lightning are currently 11th in attendance. Not bad for the second NHL team in Florida,

The Lightning were the first NHL team in Florida. Lightning began play in 1992. The Florida Panthers began play in 1993.

I was referring to that as "There are 2 NHL teams in Florida" not "The Lightning were the second team established in the state of Florida". Their pretty close together, anyway. If I'd move any of these teams I'd move the Jags to LA. I don't know if you move anyone else, the Rays may be doing bad, but what's really out there? Portland? Charlotte? New Jersey? Not much. A new stadium in Tampa would help intrench them.

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Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

This argument is done to death in hockey. "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" Then it becomes "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team when it was good are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" No, I'm not gonna wait, this is stupid.

It's a point that you just won't get unless you move to another city. I wouldn't expect a person from Chicago or New York City or Toronto to get it. You're fans of teams that have been around long before you were born.

But, there's validity in that argument.

If you were five years old when the Devil Rays first started, you just celebrated your 21st birthday this year. Not many 21-year-old's are buying season tickets or taking families of four to the game....no matter what market you're in. If you were older than five but younger than ten, you most likely already have an allegiance towards another team, whether it be the Marlins (Florida-based team), Cubs/Braves (TV watching), Yankees (Spring Training home in Tampa), the team your dad/parents/family roots for, or another team that played Spring games near you. That's just reality.

Whenever I made that defense for the Thrashers, I would ask another sports fan that took a similar stance to you these two questions:

Assume you move to another city:

1. How likely are you going to drop your fandom completely for your favorite team that you've followed since birth in favor of the local team?

2. How often do you realistically see yourself attending games during the season (both with your family or with a couple friends) of the local team when they aren't playing the team you grew up following? As in, a game between two teams that you have no sort of emotional ties/pulling interests in either team.

Nine out of ten are going to say "Not likely, not many". And thus is the very problem....the Rays and other expansion-era teams simply haven't been around long enough to establish a generation of "home team-only" fans. Sixteen years (and especially with eleven awful years at the onset) isn't long enough. Any new team really needs about 25-30 years to establish itself with a generation of sports fans.

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You are aware that I grew up in Wisconsin, right? The argument sort of falls apart when you make false assumptions like that one.

And it's not like New York doesn't have a continuous stream of people moving in from all over the country.

But no, teams in good markets don't require two decades to set in. They're embraced early, and successive generations of fans only solidify the fanbase that was already there.

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Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

This argument is done to death in hockey. "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" Then it becomes "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team when it was good are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" No, I'm not gonna wait, this is stupid.

It's a point that you just won't get unless you move to another city. I wouldn't expect a person from Chicago or New York City or Toronto to get it. You're fans of teams that have been around long before you were born.

But, there's validity in that argument.

If you were five years old when the Devil Rays first started, you just celebrated your 21st birthday this year. Not many 21-year-old's are buying season tickets or taking families of four to the game....no matter what market you're in. If you were older than five but younger than ten, you most likely already have an allegiance towards another team, whether it be the Marlins (Florida-based team), Cubs/Braves (TV watching), Yankees (Spring Training home in Tampa), the team your dad/parents/family roots for, or another team that played Spring games near you. That's just reality.

Whenever I made that defense for the Thrashers, I would ask another sports fan that took a similar stance to you these two questions:

Assume you move to another city:

1. How likely are you going to drop your fandom completely for your favorite team that you've followed since birth in favor of the local team?

2. How often do you realistically see yourself attending games during the season (both with your family or with a couple friends) of the local team when they aren't playing the team you grew up following? As in, a game between two teams that you have no sort of emotional ties/pulling interests in either team.

Nine out of ten are going to say "Not likely, not many". And thus is the very problem....the Rays and other expansion-era teams simply haven't been around long enough to establish a generation of "home team-only" fans. Sixteen years (and especially with eleven awful years at the onset) isn't long enough. Any new team really needs about 25-30 years to establish itself with a generation of sports fans.

I understand all of this.

The problem is that you're dealing with revenue streams (or lack thereof) vs the cost of continuing to operate the team in that market. The Coyotes are an extreme example, but let's run with it. They've lost millions upon millions since setting up shop in the Phoenix metro area. The team lost over $100 million over the course of just the past four years of league ownership. At a certain point any sane businessperson is going to say "we can't wait around sustaining these losses, banking on the possibility that the fanbase will support us in another decade or so."

That's the problem, really. If the team doesn't manage to make a connection right away you're stuck in a situation where the costs are going to add up quicker then it takes for your fanbase to come of age. And that's assuming they support you when they do. So it's not even a case of sticking around for a guaranteed thing. You're asking teams to stick around, foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars, for the possibility that things work out.

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You are aware that I grew up in Wisconsin, right? The argument sort of falls apart when you make false assumptions like that one.

And it's not like New York doesn't have a continuous stream of people moving in from all over the country.

But no, teams in good markets don't require two decades to set in. They're embraced early, and successive generations of fans only solidify the fanbase that was already there.

Let's ask ourselves this: How many markets can we really consider to be "good markets". Between the US and Canada, are there really approximately 30 "good markets", especially good markets that have 2+ teams in the Big Four?

In my estimation, there aren't more than 15 good markets. And even then, teams in those "good markets" go through bad times. Ten years ago, the Thrashers were drawing more fans than the Bruins and Blackhawks.

Okay, the Rays have had five winning, competitive seasons. Doesn't change the fact that they're still an infant compared to the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.

I can only give the reasons that a local gives. In a perfect world, every market would be selling out every game, especially the teams that have been winning. But we don't live in a perfect world. You say a market should be doing whatever and 'no matter what', and I simply point out the realistics and flaws of your utopian ideas.

You don't live in Tampa. In essence, you don't know schitt about how their market (or any other market in the US outside of the one(s) you live(d) in) work. You do realize that I've worked for a pro team for 11 years now, right?

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Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

This argument is done to death in hockey. "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" Then it becomes "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team when it was good are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" No, I'm not gonna wait, this is stupid.

It's a point that you just won't get unless you move to another city. I wouldn't expect a person from Chicago or New York City or Toronto to get it. You're fans of teams that have been around long before you were born.

But, there's validity in that argument.

If you were five years old when the Devil Rays first started, you just celebrated your 21st birthday this year. Not many 21-year-old's are buying season tickets or taking families of four to the game....no matter what market you're in. If you were older than five but younger than ten, you most likely already have an allegiance towards another team, whether it be the Marlins (Florida-based team), Cubs/Braves (TV watching), Yankees (Spring Training home in Tampa), the team your dad/parents/family roots for, or another team that played Spring games near you. That's just reality.

Whenever I made that defense for the Thrashers, I would ask another sports fan that took a similar stance to you these two questions:

Assume you move to another city:

1. How likely are you going to drop your fandom completely for your favorite team that you've followed since birth in favor of the local team?

2. How often do you realistically see yourself attending games during the season (both with your family or with a couple friends) of the local team when they aren't playing the team you grew up following? As in, a game between two teams that you have no sort of emotional ties/pulling interests in either team.

Nine out of ten are going to say "Not likely, not many". And thus is the very problem....the Rays and other expansion-era teams simply haven't been around long enough to establish a generation of "home team-only" fans. Sixteen years (and especially with eleven awful years at the onset) isn't long enough. Any new team really needs about 25-30 years to establish itself with a generation of sports fans.

I understand all of this.

The problem is that you're dealing with revenue streams (or lack thereof) vs the cost of continuing to operate the team in that market. The Coyotes are an extreme example, but let's run with it. They've lost millions upon millions since setting up shop in the Phoenix metro area. The team lost over $100 million over the course of just the past four years of league ownership. At a certain point any sane businessperson is going to say "we can't wait around sustaining these losses, banking on the possibility that the fanbase will support us in another decade or so."

That's the problem, really. If the team doesn't manage to make a connection right away you're stuck in a situation where the costs are going to add up quicker then it takes for your fanbase to come of age. And that's assuming they support you when they do. So it's not even a case of sticking around for a guaranteed thing. You're asking teams to stick around, foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars, for the possibility that things work out.

Or, you move around from city to city, make a quick buck, then once the newness of the team wears off and they start losing games and money again, pick up shop and move to another city a few years later, and repeat the process. How's that model worked for the Arena Football League?

Franchise location isn't like player free agency or hiring a new coach. Franchise location is based on the ultra long-term plans....10-15 years isn't long-term. Cycling through a generation (about 25-30 years) is how long a franchise should be in one city, minimum.

Yeah, you got to make some degree of connection right away, but you also have to be realistic about the growth of your fan base and the financials that go along with it. It's very difficult to ask a middle-income adult man to invest in a new team when he's had an allegiance with another team for 30+ years.

Say a non-NFL team gets placed in Hamilton. How many folks are going to instantly drop their Leafs/Jays/Raptors fandom for the new team? Realistically.

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Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

Interesting thoughts, thanks. This one I have to take issue with:

4. The team's not even 20 years old yet. They've yet to have their "Rays-only fans"....they're still in the "Rays fan, except when the Yankees are in town" stage.

Fifteen years is more than long enough to make inroads into any decent market. Especially when the team is consistently good, with marketable young stars. Fifteen years means that every kid in attendance has had the Rays as far back as they can remember. What exactly is Tampa Bay waiting for?

This argument is done to death in hockey. "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" Then it becomes "Attendance may not be good now, but wait until the kids who grew up with this team when it was good are old enough to buy their own season tickets!" No, I'm not gonna wait, this is stupid.

It's a point that you just won't get unless you move to another city. I wouldn't expect a person from Chicago or New York City or Toronto to get it. You're fans of teams that have been around long before you were born.

But, there's validity in that argument.

If you were five years old when the Devil Rays first started, you just celebrated your 21st birthday this year. Not many 21-year-old's are buying season tickets or taking families of four to the game....no matter what market you're in. If you were older than five but younger than ten, you most likely already have an allegiance towards another team, whether it be the Marlins (Florida-based team), Cubs/Braves (TV watching), Yankees (Spring Training home in Tampa), the team your dad/parents/family roots for, or another team that played Spring games near you. That's just reality.

Whenever I made that defense for the Thrashers, I would ask another sports fan that took a similar stance to you these two questions:

Assume you move to another city:

1. How likely are you going to drop your fandom completely for your favorite team that you've followed since birth in favor of the local team?

2. How often do you realistically see yourself attending games during the season (both with your family or with a couple friends) of the local team when they aren't playing the team you grew up following? As in, a game between two teams that you have no sort of emotional ties/pulling interests in either team.

Nine out of ten are going to say "Not likely, not many". And thus is the very problem....the Rays and other expansion-era teams simply haven't been around long enough to establish a generation of "home team-only" fans. Sixteen years (and especially with eleven awful years at the onset) isn't long enough. Any new team really needs about 25-30 years to establish itself with a generation of sports fans.

I understand all of this.

The problem is that you're dealing with revenue streams (or lack thereof) vs the cost of continuing to operate the team in that market. The Coyotes are an extreme example, but let's run with it. They've lost millions upon millions since setting up shop in the Phoenix metro area. The team lost over $100 million over the course of just the past four years of league ownership. At a certain point any sane businessperson is going to say "we can't wait around sustaining these losses, banking on the possibility that the fanbase will support us in another decade or so."

That's the problem, really. If the team doesn't manage to make a connection right away you're stuck in a situation where the costs are going to add up quicker then it takes for your fanbase to come of age. And that's assuming they support you when they do. So it's not even a case of sticking around for a guaranteed thing. You're asking teams to stick around, foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars, for the possibility that things work out.

Or, you move around from city to city, make a quick buck, then once the newness of the team wears off and they start losing games and money again, pick up shop and move to another city a few years later, and repeat the process. How's that model worked for the Arena Football League?

Franchise location isn't like player free agency or hiring a new coach. Franchise location is based on the ultra long-term plans....10-15 years isn't long-term. Cycling through a generation (about 25-30 years) is how long a franchise should be in one city, minimum.

25-30 years is probably the length of time you'd need to properly explore the "when the kids grow up" theory, but that's just not plausible in most cases. If the team doesn't make a connection right away you're left losing millions year after year. You can't do that for 25-30 years and remain viable (though the NHL and Coyotes are giving it the old college try). 10-15 is the limit before the investors start to say "it's not working." You're just not going to sell anyone on the prospect of losing millions for 30 years on the hope that the next generation will support the team in question.

Yeah, you got to make some degree of connection right away, but you also have to be realistic about the growth of your fan base and the financials that go along with it. It's very difficult to ask a middle-income adult man to invest in a new team when he's had an allegiance with another team for 30+ years.

That is a problem. So is the solution to waste millions year in and year out to cycle through the current generation on the hope that the next one will actually produce a loyal fanbase? Or do you go to where you know a loyal fanbase already exists? "This place will be a great market in 30 years" isn't as attractive, or sensible, as "this other place is a great market now."

Say a non-NFL team gets placed in Hamilton. How many folks are going to instantly drop their Leafs/Jays/Raptors fandom for the new team? Realistically.

A non-NFL team? Anyway...

You'd have a hard time getting those Hamilton-based Jays and Raptors fans to support the new team. That's why I'd never suggest putting a NBA or MLB team in Hamilton. The length of time you'd need to cycle through the current generation of fans wouldn't make teams there a viable business proposition. Why put a NBA team in Hamilton on the chance that it'll be a solid market in 30 years when you have Seattle, which is a solid market right now?

You'd also have a hell of a time getting folks to drop their Leafs fandom, but the draw of affordable NHL hockey without the hassle of the border would be appealing enough to make it a better prospect then a NBA or MLB team.

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I don't even think the NHL should be in Hamilton.

Anyway, as for the viability of Florida cities as pro sports markets, I think they're mostly fine. Of the nine, I think the Jaguars were a bad idea that the league should have tried to get out from under, the Panthers exist only as a loss leader, and the rest are fine. Even the Marlins would be fine without such supremely loathsome human beings in charge. You just can't hold them to northeastern/midwestern expectations. Florida is different and weird.

I'd love for the Rays to have a sweet waterfront ballpark, but these things don't build themselves.

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The Dolphins had a playoff game against Indianapolis about a decade ago blacked out because they had (if I recall correctly) roughly 10,000 unsold seats. I listened to that one on the radio in a rental car. That's all you need to know about the market.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. The regurgitation of straight up BS. Where are you getting your information from, "pal"? I was at that game. Close to 74K for that thriller (capacity 75K). Get your facts right.

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The Dolphins had a playoff game against Indianapolis about a decade ago blacked out because they had (if I recall correctly) roughly 10,000 unsold seats. I listened to that one on the radio in a rental car. That's all you need to know about the market.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. The regurgitation of straight up BS. Where are you getting your information from, "pal"? I was at that game. Close to 74K for that thriller (capacity 75K). Get your facts right.

Calm down. He's right. That game was blacked out due to unsold tickets.

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/30/sports/plus-pro-football-dolphins-shut-out-on-television.html

http://articles.philly.com/2000-12-30/sports/25577772_1_dolphins-quarterbacks-coach-playoff

So you wanted facts. Here they are.

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Okay, the Rays have had five winning, competitive seasons. Doesn't change the fact that they're still an infant compared to the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.

But "old team" isn't the only way to draw fans. An outstanding team, as the Rays are year in and year out, would be drawing at the very least in the top 10 across MLB.

If they were in a good baseball market. But they aren't. Not trying to slight Tampa Bay - "good baseball market" doesn't mean anything about a city beyond its ability to support a club.

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NFL: Dolphins and Bucs are doing bad now, but it's because both teams are in a period of sucking. The Jaguars are in a bad market alltogether.

MLB: Two words: Spring Training.

NBA: The Heat and Magic do great. No reason for either to move.

NHL: I have no idea how the Lightning do good, but the Panthers need to move ASAP. The reason nobody talks about them is due to the Coyotes being in an even worse situation.

It's more-of the fact that the team has a sweetheart deal with Broward County, as the county itself operates the arena in Sunrise as primary landlords. Broward voted in favor of $8 million in bonds and donated nearly 140 acres for the Panthers to originally build the arena, yet of the $90 million in commitments for the Panthers, the county has seen less than a half-million in its return of investment throughout the franchise's history.

The Panthers aren't going anywhere. They can post Coyote-like attendance figures all they want, but believe it or not, they're relatively healthy as a franchise, and you'll never hear any such relocation talks because they're bleeding, financially. At least not right now.

http://www.articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-01-17/news/fl-arena-waste-watch-broward-20120117_1_arena-operating-panthers-deal-auditor-charges

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I think there are a two reasons why Florida gets a bad rap as a bad market.

  1. Transplants: With demographics showing that people from the north are moving into the state of Florida, they often bring their love of their favorite teams into the area. These transplants favor teams from where they moved from and this hurts support for the local teams. Example: When the Rays play the Yankees or Red Sox, their attendance increased for those games because there are more transplants that support the Red Sox and Yankees than other teams.
  2. Management: I think this reason can go two separate ways. The first is terrible management. For example; the Miami Marlins who have two World Series titles and the new stadium, still struggle with attendance for many reasons. First, having Jeffrey Loria as an owner makes many locals very angry because of his terrible decisions like paying for the new stadium. Secondly, the fire sales in 1997 and 2004 have hurt fan support of the team. Had the Marlins didn't have those fire sales, their fan support would rise instantly. Lastly, they did some terrible decisions such as trading star players like Miguel Cabrera cost the Marlins some fans. The other half of the reason is management they can't control. The Tampa Bay Rays stadium situation is a perfect example of that. The Rays are having unparalleled success on the diamond for the last 5 years with their brilliant duo of Friedman and Sternberg but because of the Trop's location in St. Pete, the attendance lags behind the rest of the league.

I think Florida is a very good sports market and is only going to get better but the teams need to improve more and make better management decisions to increase fan support.

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I think Florida is a very good sports market and is only going to get better, but the teams need to improve more and make better management decisions to increase fan support.

This point makes the Rays situation the exception. Management there has already done all it can to help the franchise. They've done the right things to put up succesful ball clubs, and pennant contenders yearly, along with a fore-front commitment for the team to win now.

Yet, they're hooked ball-and-chain to the despair which is Tropicana, for the next 15 years. I think, by now, everyone knows the absolute simple, key solution to solve all of Tampa's woes: move the Rays to mainland Tampa, where the majority of their fans can actually go see them. Management knows that the Trop is a death shrine to the team because it was placed in an area which is unsustainable as a sports market, and attendance figures show. Once 2028 comes around, then their fan base can actually begin to be judged because of the fans, and not because of the juxtapositioned baseball field in the middle of nowhere.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/22515868/rays-sound-stuck-in-tropicana-field-through-2027-season

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Isn't it kind of silly to refer to "Florida" as one singular entity here when Miami, Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Jacksonville all represent very different situations? You could even argue that the Panthers' Broward/Palm Beach enclave is separate from the three-county area the other three Miami teams market to.

♫ oh yeah, board goes on, long after the thrill of postin' is gone ♫

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NFL: Dolphins and Bucs are doing bad now, but it's because both teams are in a period of sucking. The Jaguars are in a bad market alltogether.

MLB: Two words: Spring Training.

NBA: The Heat and Magic do great. No reason for either to move.

NHL: I have no idea how the Lightning do good, but the Panthers need to move ASAP. The reason nobody talks about them is due to the Coyotes being in an even worse situation.

It's more-of the fact that the team has a sweetheart deal with Broward County, as the county itself operates the arena in Sunrise as primary landlords. Broward voted in favor of $8 million in bonds and donated nearly 140 acres for the Panthers to originally build the arena, yet of the $90 million in commitments for the Panthers, the county has seen less than a half-million in its return of investment throughout the franchise's history.

The Panthers aren't going anywhere. They can post Coyote-like attendance figures all they want, but believe it or not, they're relatively healthy as a franchise, and you'll never hear any such relocation talks because they're bleeding, financially. At least not right now.

http://www.articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-01-17/news/fl-arena-waste-watch-broward-20120117_1_arena-operating-panthers-deal-auditor-charges

Exactly, if the owners didn't own the arena, they'd be in deep s :censored: t.

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