North American Pro Soccer 2015

[STL FANATIC]

Sorry, I forgot to link to the article with the Garber quotes: http://www.espnfc.us/major-league-soccer/story/2415886/mls-forming-plan-to-expand-beyond-24-teams-says-commissioner

[Gothamite]

I know, I know. MLS wants soccer specific stadia. I still think they'd settle for a brand new and designed specifically to accommodate soccer (as opposed to a retrofit or afterthought) if all else is right.

No. They really wouldn't.

Even if set aside the inconvenient fact that playing in stadiums not built for soccer is bad for the sport and the league, they really wouldn't.

MLS needs to control revenue streams. You don't get that in a stadium you don't control. Which is why the league has required a SSS plan for every non-NFL owner expansion club since 1998. There's a reason for that.

If the Rams move and Peacock's plan can be converted into an SSS, then absolutely. St. Louis is a slam-dunk expansion market. But if you're counting on MLS putting a team into an NFL stadium hosting a team they don't own, even one with "considerations" made for soccer, then your town will end up on the outside looking in again.

[Gothamite]

It really looks like a pyramid scheme.

http://www.soccernomics-agency.com/?page_id=9

Others disagree...

http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2015/4/23/8482407/soccernomics-mls-collapse-stefan-szymanski

That original piece is awful. You'd think an economics professor would know what a "pyramid scheme" is.

Second of all, he ignores a ton of numbers because they would hurt his argument. You know its bad when SBNation, of all places, is the voice of reason:

Here's a quick list of revenue streams that Szymanski totally neglects to mention.

Merchandise sales

Concessions

Parking

International TV rights

Local TV revenue

Soccer camps

Stadium naming rights

And to bring this back to St. Louis, you'll notice that most of those items are related to stadiums. When MLS teams control their stadiums, those revenues are theirs.

Which is why the league no longer places expansion teams in someone else's stadiums, and why the riverfront plan is unsuitable for luring an MLS expansion team.

[STL FANATIC]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think 3 — maybe 4 — of those are related to stadiums. Concessions, Parking, Stadium Naming Rights, and perhaps some Merchandising.

Most likely the concessions would still go to the MLS team during MLS games. That's a common practice in leased stadiums. Parking is something that could be worked out. Again, it wouldn't be uncommon for a good portion of that revenue to be part of the lease. You can bet the NFL expects parking revenue to come their way despite not owning the building. Merchandising I think would already primarily go to the team. Again, that's something that can be worked out in the lease.

Naming rights and other stadium advertising is really the one stream that I think might be less likely to be turned over to the MLS team. So I'll completely grant that one.

I think a big key here is that they wouldn't be playing in an NFL team's stadium. They'd be playing in St. Louis' stadium.

I don't think your points are unfair, though. I just think you're a bit too certain about it.

[The_Admiral]

[Gothamite]

Ha! Love it.

[STL FANATIC]

Here's some interesting stuff on the possibility of the MLS to St. Louis.

http://www.espnfc.com/major-league-soccer/19/blog/post/2438275/examining-the-candidates-for-the-next-round-of-mls-expansion

A couple of quotes stand out to me.

"I think we're first and foremost Rams," Peacock told ESPN FC via telephone. "We want to retain the team. The project that's enabling us to keep the [Rams] creates an opportunity for MLS. I think if something were to fall through -- and I can't imagine that happening -- I think the region could still support an MLS team."

The boldest is the first "official" hint I've seen that suggests maybe they'd consider downsizing the plan to build a soccer specific stadium if the NFL falls through. That's what I take that to mean anyways. Doesn't mean they actually have any plans for that, but it suggests to me it's at least crossed their mind.

An NFL-sized stadium, while not ideal, would certainly bring an MLS expansion team closer to reality. Peacock said the initial design of the venue would allow for a downsized configuration that would seat 25,000 fans. The fact that it would also be downtown would no doubt please MLS.

"I think frankly it's hard to sell an NFL stadium for soccer, but I think the way it's being designed could really work for soccer," Peacock said. "I think the crowds we would have in St. Louis would surprise people in numbers. It's at a price point and there's a passion for the support. That combination along with what I would think would likely be good local ownership, managing the team profitably, I think you would have the right combination for a successful franchise here."

There's acknowledgement there that getting an MLS team in an NFL stadium is an uphill battle. But neither Peacock (of course) nor the ESPN reporter writes it off as a deal breaker.

Peacock also hints at "good local ownership." I think they probably already have a general idea of an ownership group in place. I think IF the stadium situation (whichever way it goes) puts them in a spot to think about the MLS, they'll probably have an ownership group ready to bid.

When asked if he would be part of the ownership group, Peacock said, "Maybe." He confirmed that he had met with MLS leaders back in December, and a source told ESPN FC that Garber and MLS will visit with Peacock at the end of this month.

This just echoes that last point. Ownership has been thought about, though they're being tight-lipped and keeping the focus on the NFL right now.

[Gothamite]

That's more or less in line with what I was thinking about the stadium. If the NFL falls through, downscale to a SSS. Provided that get the financing in the first place.

The local ownership will have to be deep-pocketed, though; MLS expansion fees have skyrocketed in recent years. Minnesota just paid a reported $100M, back in NYCFC territory.

[STL FANATIC]

There's reason to believe that, now more than ever, St. Louis ownership would be there. The major players would likely consist of Peacock himself (hard to gauge his net-worth at all—it's likely substantial but maybe not enough to be the primary guy), Andy Taylor of the Taylor family (Enterprise), and Jim Kavanaugh of World Wide Technology.

The Taylor's have plenty of money, and have stepped up for plenty of civic causes. It hadn't usually been sports, but that may be shifting as they joined the Blues ownership group when they were sold a few years back. There's also been rumblings that they're involved with stadium. (I've heard chipping in with the stadium funding to being ready to lead an ownership group if that should somehow come up.) That shift could be a result of Andy taking more control, with the patriarch, Jack, now 93 years old.

Then there's Jim Kavanaugh who I haven't been able to find much specific data about, but he's perhaps the biggest hope. WWT is growing very quickly and had revenues of $7 billion plus last year. Kavanaugh is the founder and CEO. Kavanaugh actually played briefly in the MISL from 1986 to 1987, and he's the primary backer of the new USL-Pro team in St. Louis.

I believe that between those three guys (and the people they'll be able to convince to invest), that the ownership can finally exist.

A lot of things seem to make the timing generally right for St. Louis to get an MLS team, but we'll just have to see if any of it actually comes together.

[Gothamite]

Sounds good.

Now you just need a SSS. We'll see.

[Corvus]

To those who think the whole "MLS should follow the european soccer calendar" thing is a good idea, I present this picture of the match that had to be cancelled this week in the Canadian Championship between Vancouver and Edmonton.

[2001mark]

To those who think the whole "MLS should follow the european soccer calendar" thing is a good idea, I present this picture of the match that had to be cancelled this week in the Canadian Championship between Vancouver and Edmonton.

Yeah, it's not happening. NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAF & NCAAB... MLS will only ever work here spring-summer-early fall.

[2001mark]

TFC 8,400 more fans today phase 1 stadium upgrades... & New Jersey Red Bulls v New York FC 1st match. I'll be watching.

[4_tattoos]

I gotta be honest once an MLS team in NY (proper) become a reality I started calling the Red Bulls New Jersey in my head. Atleast the Giants & Jets both played in NY at a point in their history, so they still have some legit claim to NY.

Am I wrong for thinking the Red Bulls should rebrand in the near future & accept that they are a New Jersey sports franchise?

[Corvus]

I don't see what the upside of that would be for them. Plus I doubt their corporate overlords would see that as a good move. Internationally, New York has a whole hell of a lot more prestige and marketing power than New Jersey.

[DG_ThenNowForever]

Lots of people think that. NYRB had its chance to capture the New York market (and were able to sign Thierry Henry on that basis of NY), but they blew it.

What they're left with is a beautiful stadium in the middle of nowhere. I don't know what they with that exactly, unless they make a play to share with NYCFC, and wouldn't that be something!

Much like the Devils, the idea of a New Jersey team makes general sense, but then you're kind of left without a dedicated fan base. North Jersey identifies with NY, while South Jersey with Philadelphia.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. NYCFC has cachet but isn't very good, while NYRB are on the outs but are good.

[Dexter Morgan]

NJ shouldn't have professional sports teams. The Devils until recently have done nothing but win and have been a model NHL franchise, and yet still..very few care.

[Needschat]

NY Red Bulls have played a few exhibitions and Hunt Open Cup matches in the Capital District. We're still waiting for NYCFC to come here.

[sportstar1212]

TFC drops their opening game at the newly-renovated BMO Field 2-1.

Now time to watch NYCFC beat Red Bull!

[Nyk33]

TFC drops their opening game at the newly-renovated BMO Field 2-1.

Now time to watch NYCFC beat Red Bull!

About that....

How did NYCFC lose a game where they had a man advantage for almost 2/3's of the match? If I was an NYCFC fan I would be fuming right now.

Imagine how the folks who jumped ship from Red Bull to NYCFC must feel.