2014-5 NBA Season Thread: We Are North American Ballerz

[C's]

Would rather have Cauley-Stein, although now it's looking like he may be gone before we're up. He's been all over the place on draft boards this season.

[DS729]

Would rather have Cauley-Stein, although now it's looking like he may be gone before we're up. He's been all over the place on draft boards this season.

I don't think Cauley-Stein will make it out of the lottery, the 6-10 range seems likely for him.

[HedleyLamarr]

It would be hella awesome to see the Hawks make the conference finals (or NBA Finals) and get a great pick from Brooklyn.

Although the Pistons did that years ago, and wasted the #2 pick on Darko....

[DG_ThenNowForever]

It would be hella awesome to see the Hawks make the conference finals (or NBA Finals) and get a great pick from Brooklyn.

Although the Pistons did that years ago, and wasted the #2 pick on Darko....

The sad thing is Darco was defensible at the time and they won a title immediately after, so it kind of worked.

Imagine if they had taken Carmelo -- that guy's career would have taken a dramatically (and more successful) turn.

Bosh was probably the best choice for the Pistons, but they still probably would have lost in 2005 anyway. Those Spurs we're too good and Bosh didn't really become great until Miami.

[BigEd76]

Nobody wants to win this Wizards/Pacers game. Philly and Miami are rooting hard for DC to pull this one out

Cavaliers/Celtics is set.

EDIT: I thought Bulls/Bucks and Raptors/Wizards were set too, but division champ is the first tiebreaker even though Chicago won the season series

[BigEd76]

Damn....That might be the dagger

Miami is eliminated, and Indy has a 1-game lead on Brooklyn for the last Eastern spot. Indy wins or Brooklyn loses, they're in. Indiana L + Brooklyn W = Nets are in

[dfwabel]

Tomorrow's MIA@PHL game is a game neither wants to win.

From IRA Winderman (Sun-Sentinel):

"Now the only thing at stake for the Heat on Wednesday night at Wells Fargo Center is protecting their No. 10 seed in the random-but-weighted May 19 NBA Draft lottery. Should the Heat lose Wednesday, they would have a 91-percent chance of retaining their first-round pick in the June 25 NBA Draft.

However, because of a previous trade, the Heat's 2015 first-round pick would go to the 76ers if it is not among the first 10. Should the Heat win Wednesday and the Nets lose, the teams would be part of a random draw to see which team would be seeded No. 10 and which No. 11 in the lottery. A No. 11 lottery seed would reduce the Heat's odds of retaining their 2015 first-round pick, which then would have to be among the first three, to about 3 percent."

[DG_ThenNowForever]

You know, it feels like half of the top ten picks belong to or potentially belong to the 76ers in some fashion. And all they'd do with those picks is turn them into more picks.

The Sixers might be the most despicable franchise in sports.

[BigEd76]

Hey, back-to-back years of NBDL garbage and stashed rookies and they still couldn't finish with the worst record either time.

If none of those #1s convey this year, they'll still have five #2s to do whatever, then next summer they'll still have up to four #1s and Denver's #2, Saric coming over from Turkey and a ton of cap space to go after Durant or someone else. The last two seasons have sucked, but everyone's excited about Embiid and what he and Noel could do. Get D'Angelo Russell in the draft and we're looking good again

[Lights Out]

You know, it feels like half of the top ten picks belong to or potentially belong to the 76ers in some fashion. And all they'd do with those picks is turn them into more picks.

The Sixers might be the most despicable franchise in sports.

What was really despicable is how they spent a decade seemingly trying to be mediocre and attempting to pass off players like Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holliday, Andre Miller, and a geriatric version of Chris Webber as franchise cornerstones. Selling mid-30's win totals and false hope is about the worst thing you can do to a fanbase. By all indications, their fanbase is actually happier with the on-court product now and fully on board with tanking, so I don't see what the problem is.

What I'd like to know is how teams like last year's Bucks and this year's Timberwolves and Knicks have escaped criticism for managing to out-tank the "despicable" Sixers.

[dfwabel]

You know, it feels like half of the top ten picks belong to or potentially belong to the 76ers in some fashion. And all they'd do with those picks is turn them into more picks.

The Sixers might be the most despicable franchise in sports.

What I'd like to know is how teams like last year's Bucks and this year's Timberwolves and Knicks have escaped criticism for managing to out-tank the "despicable" Sixers.

Knicks and Wolves were over the salary cap and floor respectively. It took until after the trade deadline for the Sixers to get above the floor again by claiming Thomas Robinson. It's just the on the court results, it's their drafting and looking for all economic loopholes.

[DG_ThenNowForever]

Fundamentally, teams should play to win. If they're stringing out the year for a drafting advantage -- and being straightforward about it -- they should open the doors and let whoever wants to come in and enjoy the game. If the regular season is effectively an exhibition, go all the way with it.

It's too cynical for me to accept that a team's entire season goal should be to accumulate picks instead of wins. Or at least not to have three seasons in a row like that.

The Knicks, God bless them, started the season expecting to win. The Timber wolves are looking to develop Wiggins and Bennett. The Bucks last year developed Giannis, who took a leap this season.

The Sixers might draft #1, but there's no guarantee Okafor or anyone else stays on the team. If the Sixers pick first and start the season 2-15, do they try for 30 wins to build on the following season? Or do they call it another lost season and play for picks again?

Lots of teams are in the 20-30 win zone. The Warriors were. The Nuggets often are. The Grizzlies and Blazers have had a few rough seasons in a row too. But they didn't decide to lose indefinitely.

And the other part is what free agent would possibly consider Philadelphia now? The whole thing is messed.

[OnWis97]

The Knicks won at Atlanta, blowing the top spot in the lottery

1 Minnesota 16-65 - OKC

2 New York 17-64 - DET

3 Philadelphia 18-63 - MIA

4 LA Lakers

5 Orlando

6 Sacramento

7 Denver 30-50 - @LAC, @GS

8 Detroit 31-50 - @NY

9 Charlotte

10 Miami 36-45 - @PHI

11 Atlanta (BKN) 37-44 - ORL

12 Utah 38-43 - @HOU

13 Phoenix 39-42 - LAC

14 (whoever misses the playoffs between OKC and New Orleans)

---------

15 Indiana 37-43 - WSH, @MEM

I wonder what Minnesota is going to do with that 4th pick.

[BigEd76]

The whole Sixers tanking thing had several purposes:

-- overhauling the entire roster after several 30-40 win seasons and 1st-round exits (and that Bynum disaster)

-- clearing out as much cap space as logistically possible and using it to an advantage by taking 1st-round picks from other teams in exchange for their cap-clogging crap (and when they're ready to go after free agents, they'll be able to offer max)

-- avoiding paying out 1st-round picks owed to several teams thanks to bad trades by Billy King (as brought up earlier)

-- going for several top-5 franchise players, which is necessary to jump into the 50-60 win tier of the NBA instead of being mediocre year after year

-- developing a bunch of players that would normally sit on a bench elsewhere. Guys like Robert Covington, Thomas Robinson and Isaiah Canaan got little to no chance elsewhere before they were brought here

-- taking the time under new management and personnel to revamp the public relations and gameday experiences since nobody was coming to the games post-Iverson anyway, and these changes included new special offers and the new Franklin mascot for the kids and public appearances

Their season ticket promo this past season was "Together We Build", and next year it's "This Starts Now". Like I mentioned earlier, the plan was to get a bunch of high franchise-caliber picks (Noel, Embiid, this year's pick), develop a supporting cast (Covington, Canaan, Grant, Wroten, Thomas Robinson, JaKarr Sampson), use the 2nds for deep bench, trades and overseas stashes, and stay as close to the salary floor as possible in case they wanna go for a Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard this summer or Durant and the stars next summer. They aren't planning to stay below 20 wins year after year like the Clippers and Bobcats did.

[DG_ThenNowForever]

Sure. Good luck with Kawhi Leonard and Durant. If they sign in Philly I'll eat my hat.

[MadmanLA]

The whole Sixers tanking thing had several purposes:

-- overhauling the entire roster after several 30-40 win seasons and 1st-round exits (and that Bynum disaster)

-- clearing out as much cap space as logistically possible and using it to an advantage by taking 1st-round picks from other teams in exchange for their cap-clogging crap (and when they're ready to go after free agents, they'll be able to offer max)

-- avoiding paying out 1st-round picks owed to several teams thanks to bad trades by Billy King (as brought up earlier)

-- going for several top-5 franchise players, which is necessary to jump into the 50-60 win tier of the NBA instead of being mediocre year after year

-- developing a bunch of players that would normally sit on a bench elsewhere. Guys like Robert Covington, Thomas Robinson and Isaiah Canaan got little to no chance elsewhere before they were brought here

-- taking the time under new management and personnel to revamp the public relations and gameday experiences since nobody was coming to the games post-Iverson anyway, and these changes included new special offers and the new Franklin mascot for the kids and public appearances

Their season ticket promo this past season was "Together We Build", and next year it's "This Starts Now". Like I mentioned earlier, the plan was to get a bunch of high franchise-caliber picks (Noel, Embiid, this year's pick), develop a supporting cast (Covington, Canaan, Grant, Wroten, Thomas Robinson, JaKarr Sampson), use the 2nds for deep bench, trades and overseas stashes, and stay as close to the salary floor as possible in case they wanna go for a Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard this summer or Durant and the stars next summer. They aren't planning to stay below 20 wins year after year like the Clippers and Bobcats did.

I can understand the sentiment about rebuilding with young talent, and maybe even adding a veteran or two to help-out the youngsters. Maybe it's the long-time Clipper fan in me that sat through one rebuilding project after another before finally hitting it big with Blake Griffin (and later acquiring Chris Paul), but I'll never understand the purpose of being intentionally bad just for the sake of stacking-up drafting picks. The draft (and the lottery) is all a large gamble, so much so that GM and coaches' jobs are largely dependent on whether or not these players actually become successful. For a tradition-rich franchise like the Sixers, and in one of the NBA's flagship markets like Philadelphia, I just find it hard that the fanbase (some of the fans anyway) are willing to go for a rebuilding plan like this.

[dfwabel]

Sure. Good luck with Kawhi Leonard and Durant. If they sign in Philly I'll eat my hat.

LAL, NYK and Miami are the only true free agent destinations. The second level (if it exist) is DAL, HOU and possibly CHI. Most every other city is the free agent's best option for $$$.

Plus, Durant's foot and recovery puts an enormous question mark on him post-lockout. Three operations in five months.

[BigEd76]

Following the 2003 season when the Sixers lost in the 2nd round to Detroit, they had win totals of 33, 43, 38, 35, 40, 41, 27, 41 during that Iverson/Iguodala/Brand era when the Sixers were the redheaded stepchild to the Flyers and fans stopped caring about the team. When the new ownership took over, there was a shortened season of only 66 games (35 wins and they took Boston to game 7 in the ECSF), the GM DiLeo made the Bynum disaster deal and bought out Brand that summer, and things fell apart the following season. That's when ownership decided that sweeping changes were needed throughout the organization. Part of that involved wiping out the roster and starting fresh. At this point, all we can do is trust what Hinkie's doing, and the team has been more exciting to watch despite 30 different players, 20-30 turnovers a game and 60 losses. There's another rebranding this summer with the uniforms, and hopefully it's the start of a more successful era

[dfwabel]

Following the 2003 season when the Sixers lost in the 2nd round to Detroit, they had win totals of 33, 43, 38, 35, 40, 41, 27, 41 during that Iverson/Iguodala/Brand era when the Sixers were the redheaded stepchild to the Flyers and fans stopped caring about the team. When the new ownership took over, there was a shortened season of only 66 games (35 wins and they took Boston to game 7 in the ECSF), the GM DiLeo made the Bynum disaster deal and bought out Brand that summer, and things fell apart the following season. That's when ownership decided that sweeping changes were needed throughout the organization. Part of that involved wiping out the roster and starting fresh. At this point, all we can do is trust what Hinkie's doing, and the team has been more exciting to watch despite 30 different players, 20-30 turnovers a game and 60 losses. There's another rebranding this summer with the uniforms, and hopefully it's the start of a more successful era

Thirty years of data from the salary cap/draft lottery era is firmly against their plan.

Credit: Freakonomics

...more specifically: if a team wins 25 or fewer games – a result needed to maximize success in the lottery – what happens in future NBA seasons?

Before answering this question, let’s make an observation. Since 1985, only two teams (the Miami Heat in 2006 and the Houston Rockets in 1995) have managed to win an NBA title without winning at least 66 percent (54 wins in an 82-game season) of their games. And since 1984-85, about 20 percent of teams have won 54 or more games. So it seems likely that a team needs to be in this group to really be considered a contender.

But it appears that teams that win 25 or fewer games have a hard time joining this elite. Of the teams that won 25 or fewer games since 1984-85,

• 2.3 percent won 54 or more games the next year
• 3.9 percent won 54 or more games two years later
• 5.7 percent won 54 or more games three years later
• 10.1 percent won 54 or more games four years later
• 10.6 percent won 54 or more games five years later

In sum, nearly 90 percent of teams that win 25 or fewer games are not contenders five years later. This suggests that “tanking” is a strategy that is very unlikely to lead to NBA success.

Despite this list, fans of the NBA’s losers still have dreams that success in the NBA lottery will lead to title contention and an NBA championship in the future. But is this likely to happen? About a year ago, I offered the concept of the “lottery treadmill” in an effort to understand how title contenders are built. Now I want to address what happens to teams that are not contenders.

Or more specifically: if a team wins 25 or fewer games – a result needed to maximize success in the lottery – what happens in future NBA seasons?

Before answering this question, let’s make an observation. Since 1985, only two teams (the Miami Heat in 2006 and the Houston Rockets in 1995) have managed to win an NBA title without winning at least 66 percent (54 wins in an 82-game season) of their games. And since 1984-85, about 20 percent of teams have won 54 or more games. So it seems likely that a team needs to be in this group to really be considered a contender.

But it appears that teams that win 25 or fewer games have a hard time joining this elite. Of the teams that won 25 or fewer games since 1984-85,

• 2.3 percent won 54 or more games the next year
• 3.9 percent won 54 or more games two years later
• 5.7 percent won 54 or more games three years later
• 10.1 percent won 54 or more games four years later
• 10.6 percent won 54 or more games five years later

In sum, nearly 90 percent of teams that win 25 or fewer games are not contenders five years later. This suggests that “tanking” is a strategy that is very unlikely to lead to NBA success.

So are teams better off avoiding the “mediocrity treadmill”? Let’s define a mediocre team as one that wins between 34 and 49 wins. Of the teams in this group,

• 9.1 percent won 54 or more games the next year
• 13.9 percent won 54 or more games two years later
• 14.8 percent won 54 or more games three years later
• 16.5 percent won 54 or more games four years later
• 19.8 percent won 54 or more game five years later

In sum, a team that is mediocre is much more likely to contend in the near future than a loser. And that means if your team is actually trying to build a loser (i.e. avoid the mediocrity treadmill), they are reducing their chances to contend.

Plus there is the collateral damage suffered by the highly drafted player(s) who are consistently on losing teams or teams which are not trying. The Sixers traded Carter-Williams two and a half years into his contract, so will they do the same next trade deadline with Noel since they picked up his option through 15-16?

[BigEd76]

Looking more recently since expansion and the college-aged kids have diluted the league and given bad teams a chance to rebound quicker, here are a few examples that the Sixers would use:

-- The 07-08 Sonics finished 20-62, moved to OKC and finished 23-59 in 08-09. After that, they won 50, 55, 47 (of 66), 60 and 59, then they fell back to the middle of the pack this year because of injuries

-- The 07-08 and 08-09 Clippers finished with 23 and 19 wins respectively. After that, they won 29, 32, 40 (of 66), 56, 57 and 56

-- The 06-07 through 08-09 Grizzlies finished with 22, 22 and 24 wins. After that, they won 40, 46, 41 (of 66), 56, 50 and 54*

-- The 10-11 and 11-12 Raptors finished with 22 and 23 (of 66). After that, they won 34, 48 and 48

-- Prior to the last three seasons where the Warriors have won 47, 51 and 66*, they only won 29, 26, 36 and 23 (of 66)

* +1 if they win tonight

On the other hand, there's Charlotte, Minnesota, Orlando and Sacramento, all of whom are making the rebuilding thing look bad