2009 MLB Season Thread

[gingerbreadmann]

Considering he's a gold glove CF and only 27...I will take that with open arms. Welcome to Atlanta, McLouth!

This is why the Gold Glove sucks. He was the worst fielding outfielder in the majors last year (close to Brad Hawpe, but he was). And I'm not even saying that out of opinion. He is a good hitter, but a terrible fielder.

[Drew22]

This is true. The Pirates announcers said the same thing about McLouth. He's got speed though, something the Braves don't have.

And back to AAA goes Gregor Blanco.

EDIT: According to the ESPN News text I just got P Jeff Locke is going to the Pirates too.

[JayJaxon]

It sure is an interesting day to be a Braves fan. I think it's a good move.

[STL FANATIC]

I don't know what the stats say, and it's certainly notable if the Pirates own announcers said McClouth's not a great fielder.

But watching the Pirates a fair amount with all the divisional games, its always seemed to me that McLouth deserved that Gold Glove. He's also a damn fine hitter. It's a good pickup for the Braves.

Now, does anybody know anything about these prospects? Did the Pirates just give up their best player for nothing, again?

[TFoA]

As long as he isn't Rookie Schafer, I am A-OK with McLouth being out there.

[MDC]

Yes, Nate McClouth is fantastic, great pick up for the Braves. he had a huge year last year

[Drew22]

Actually, I have no problem getting rid of those three. Hernandez is blocked by Schafer, Morton is a third wheel behind Hanson/Medlen, and I've never heard of Locke.

Advantage Braves.

[crkraider22]

McLouth had one error the entire season last year, so the Gold Glove was well deserved. The fans loved him, with the bat and the glove; he was easily the most represented amongst the crowds at the games. The Pirates GM said the move was made to stock the farm system for the future. We all knew that a .500 season wasn't gonna happen with him, so I can see management's point of view with looking ahead. As a fan and season ticket holder, he was the face of the franchise and this off-season that same GM said he was the cornerstone of the future. The GM also said the McCutchen is better defensively than McLouth so that will be an interesting storyline to follow this season to see if he can fill those shoes. The talk here is that Morton could be in the rotation by the end of the month. Expect a firesale of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Doumit, Tom Grozelanny/Ian Snell/Zack Duke by the time the deadline comes along.

EDIT: It was also suspected that this was a trade while Nate's stock was high. Most are saying that they are already seeing a dropoff in his production at the plate.

[gingerbreadmann]

Don't even get me started on errors(!!!!!!!). Especially for OUTFIELDERS. Ooooh, yeah, I guess the fans liked him, and he made one error all year, so he was therefore by default a great fielder! Ugh.

I'm not trying to bring him down. He had a very good year hitting last year and that gave him a very, very good year all around. But, he was a terrible fielder. That is all I'm saying. And I'm not backing down. So, I suggest no one get into it with me over that fact unless you have very real evidence and make objective arguments that support your side. You would still be wrong, but I'm not doing the whole errors thing.

As far as his hitting this year, just curious, why can't you make your own judgments? Just the way you put that whole post into third person oddly, and the last line is awkward. "Most are saying," well, what have you seen? I don't mean to be a dick over this one, but, it seems weird. BTW, I agree, he has definitely fallen off hitting (but his fielding is at least better!) So, overall, he is basically on pace to be just as good as last year, just in different areas, IMO. He is a solid pickup. Not a superstar, but a well above-average player. I don't know any of the prospects besides Gorkys but I don't think any of them are really elite; I would rather have done McLouth for Heyward straight-up, which probably wasn't possible, but still. I suppose Gorkys isn't too bad, he is in the 60s of Baseball America's top 100 prospects I believe. But hey, if Garret Anderson would just retire now, this would be a very beneficial trade for the Braves.

[HedleyLamarr]

Don't even get me started on errors(!!!!!!!). Especially for OUTFIELDERS. Ooooh, yeah, I guess the fans liked him, and he made one error all year, so he was therefore by default a great fielder! Ugh.

I'm not trying to bring him down. He had a very good year hitting last year and that gave him a very, very good year all around. But, he was a terrible fielder. That is all I'm saying. And I'm not backing down. So, I suggest no one get into it with me over that fact unless you have very real evidence and make objective arguments that support your side. You would still be wrong, but I'm not doing the whole errors thing.

As far as his hitting this year, just curious, why can't you make your own judgments? Just the way you put that whole post into third person oddly, and the last line is awkward. "Most are saying," well, what have you seen? I don't mean to be a dick over this one, but, it seems weird.

Folks that have actual lives don't spend them watching 15 baseball games each day. Especially wasting 3 hours of their life watching Pirates games.....

You're probably the only guy in America that adamant about his defensive abilities. In the grand scheme of things, there are a lot worse options than McCouth in CF.

I don't know about McClouth's stats and defensive prowess, but I know that whenever the Braves have played the Pirates, McClouth has been a pest that was always doing something to help the Pirates win.

Now the Braves have that pesky guy. Excellent move by Frank Wren......

[crkraider22]

I can make my own judgements but I find it more interesting to see it from the organizations POV than to hear a fan's reaction.

How do you determine the gold glove for outfielders, by whoever has the most Top 10 moments on ESPN throughout the year? He covered ample ground in center (especially left-center at PNC for half the season). I will say his range is better to right center on fly balls and has a very strong arm, not Ichiro and Clemente like but strong enough (anyone remember the game saving throw in the 08 ASG). I don't see any difference in his fielding between this year and last, so thats a mute point for him (As seen below with the stats, this year is turning out to be an even better year than last). As a fan, I could tell he was in a slump, but during the past homestand, I had the feeling he was going to break out of it after he sat the first game of this homestand. He has had some crucial hits in this homestand and you could see his stroke and confidence coming back to him. His swing won't yield a lot of singles, he is more of a doubles and HR guy (leads CF in doubles this year). His speed isn't the best, but he picks the right time on when to steal and gets good jumps, he reads the pitcher well. He probabily won't get above 20 SB a year, but his percentage will be above .850.

384 Putouts out of 390 Defensive Chancecs, a .984 percentage

5 Assists

.997 Fielding Percentage (League Percentage was .985)

2.63 Range Factor (League Range Factor was 2.21)

Held 48% of Runners, Threw out 1.5% of Runners that tried to advance

50% of Balls Fielded were outs

*2008 Stats

117 Putouts out of 122 Defensive Chances, a .959 percentage

5 Assists

1.000 Fielding Percentage (League Average is .991)

2.89 Range Factor (League Range Factor is 2.67)

Held 43.9% of Runners, Threw out 1.8% of Runners that tried to advance

56% of Balls Fielded were outs

*2009 Stats after 45 Games Played

[STL FANATIC]

I'll argue for his defense (kinda). I've seen him rob the Cardinals of a lot of hits and cover a ton of ground in doing so. I'm okay with an argument that he shouldn't have won the Gold Glove, but to suggest he was the worst fielder last year seems asinine to me. He's very good fielder at the worst, IMO.

[crkraider22]

Here we can see his fielding stats compared to the other two NL Gold Glove winners. He held his own when put up against Beltran and Victorino in 08, but this season, he has better stats in almost all of the categories than those two.

*Stats from Baseball Reference

[cupps]

Another season... another lost player in exchange for more "prospects."

The joys of being a Buccos fan.

[mania]

From Rob Neyer.

?According to John Dewan?s Fielding Bible data, McLouth was 40 plays worse than average, dead last among major league outfielders. According to Baseball Prospectus, McLouth was 17 runs ? runs, not plays ? worse than an average center fielder. According to Bill James? win shares, McLouth?s outfield defense was 46th-most-valuable in the majors. This is exactly the sort of award that only damages the reputation of the honor.?

[gingerbreadmann]

Don't even get me started on errors(!!!!!!!). Especially for OUTFIELDERS. Ooooh, yeah, I guess the fans liked him, and he made one error all year, so he was therefore by default a great fielder! Ugh.

I'm not trying to bring him down. He had a very good year hitting last year and that gave him a very, very good year all around. But, he was a terrible fielder. That is all I'm saying. And I'm not backing down. So, I suggest no one get into it with me over that fact unless you have very real evidence and make objective arguments that support your side. You would still be wrong, but I'm not doing the whole errors thing.

As far as his hitting this year, just curious, why can't you make your own judgments? Just the way you put that whole post into third person oddly, and the last line is awkward. "Most are saying," well, what have you seen? I don't mean to be a dick over this one, but, it seems weird.

Folks that have actual lives don't spend them watching 15 baseball games each day. Especially wasting 3 hours of their life watching Pirates games.....

You're probably the only guy in America that adamant about his defensive abilities. In the grand scheme of things, there are a lot worse options than McCouth in CF.

Well, he is a Pirates fan and it was just worded very funny to me throughout the post. And believe me, I am not as I will show below. Especially last year. This year, I have said he has improved but he is still below average.

I can make my own judgements but I find it more interesting to see it from the organizations POV than to hear a fan's reaction.

How do you determine the gold glove for outfielders, by whoever has the most Top 10 moments on ESPN throughout the year? He covered ample ground in center (especially left-center at PNC for half the season). I will say his range is better to right center on fly balls and has a very strong arm, not Ichiro and Clemente like but strong enough (anyone remember the game saving throw in the 08 ASG). I don't see any difference in his fielding between this year and last, so thats a mute point for him (As seen below with the stats, this year is turning out to be an even better year than last). As a fan, I could tell he was in a slump, but during the past homestand, I had the feeling he was going to break out of it after he sat the first game of this homestand. He has had some crucial hits in this homestand and you could see his stroke and confidence coming back to him. His swing won't yield a lot of singles, he is more of a doubles and HR guy (leads CF in doubles this year). His speed isn't the best, but he picks the right time on when to steal and gets good jumps, he reads the pitcher well. He probabily won't get above 20 SB a year, but his percentage will be above .850.

384 Putouts out of 390 Defensive Chancecs, a .984 percentage

5 Assists

.997 Fielding Percentage (League Percentage was .985)

2.63 Range Factor (League Range Factor was 2.21)

Held 48% of Runners, Threw out 1.5% of Runners that tried to advance

50% of Balls Fielded were outs

*2008 Stats

117 Putouts out of 122 Defensive Chances, a .959 percentage

5 Assists

1.000 Fielding Percentage (League Average is .991)

2.89 Range Factor (League Range Factor is 2.67)

Held 43.9% of Runners, Threw out 1.8% of Runners that tried to advance

56% of Balls Fielded were outs

*2009 Stats after 45 Games Played

That's fine, I didn't know where in the world you got that info but it sounded like some kind of press release. I didn't mean to make the POV thing a big deal anyway.

Anyway, very respectable numbers. The one that really stands out to me is the % of balls fielded for outs. Is that on Baseball-Reference? The main argument I am going to make in opposition to him is that he does not make the plays for outs that other people would. Of course, in a more complicated manner, but I haven't seen that particular stat before and I wonder what the league average for center fielders was.

I will first say that your perspective, as well as STL's, etc. is fairly common for Nate, and I will assume this is at least partly why he won the GG. His fielding must be especially attractive to the human eye because in the Fans' Scouting Report, he was voted the second best defender on the Pirates last year. (50 is average in all those categories) Following that project for many years now, I often trust the Fans' perspective (which falls in line with most of yours'), but here there is just too much counter evidence.

Multiple objective systems evaluate McLouth as an especially poor outfielder and given their backgrounds I, along with most others familiar with these systems, am inclined to trust them. I will say that the people behind these systems are all extremely well respected within the "sabermetric" community, as well as even mainstream media more recently. (2 of these were featured in SI and ESPN magazines earlier this year) Many of these people have been hired by MLB teams to do research for them proprietorially.

First, the Fielding Bible +/-. John Dewan has written two versions of the Fielding Bible, the definitive book about defensive research. His team reviews real game footage of every single ball in play and plots it. I will let the site describe this system for you.

Here’s the question that we try to answer with the Plus/Minus System:

How many plays did this player make above or below those an average player at his position would make?

That’s what you should think to yourself when you’re looking at all those plus and minus numbers. The average is zero. If a player makes one play more than the average, that’s +1.

Now let me give you the short version of how the Plus/Minus System has been developed. We’ll get into further details later.

Baseball Info Solutions reviews videotape of every game in Major League Baseball. Every play is entered into the computer where we record the exact direction, distance, speed and type of every batted ball. Direction and distance is done on a computer screen by simply clicking the exact location of the ball on a replica of the field shown on the screen. Speed is simply soft, medium and hard while types of batted balls are groundball, liner, fly and bunt. We will be introducing a new category in 2006 called fliner. A fliner is a ball that is hard to categorize because it’s somewhere between a fly and a liner, so it becomes a fliner. But that’s next year.

The computer totals all softly hit groundballs on Vector 17, for example, [GBM: The Field is split into different zones, or "vectors"] and determines that these types of batted balls are converted into outs by the shortstop only 26% of the time. Therefore, if, on this occasion, the shortstop converts a slowly hit ball on Vector 17 into an out, that’s a heck of a play, and it scores at +.74. The credit for the play made, 1.00, minus the expectation that it should be made, which is 0.26. If the play isn’t made—by anybody—it’s -.26 for the shortstop.

The key is if a player makes a play on a specific type of batted ball, hit to a specific location on the field, and hit at a specific speed, he gets credit if at least one other player in MLB that season missed that exact ball sometime during the season. A player who misses a play on a specific type of batted ball, hit to a specific location on the field, and hit at a specific speed, he loses credit if a least one other player made the same play some other time.

Add up all the credits the player gets and loses based on each and every play when he’s on the field and you get his plus/minus number (rounded to the nearest integer).

It's pretty simple, and this system is based on actual video which makes it rather unique. In 2008, Nate McLouth was rated as the worst fielder in all of baseball at -40 plays. And if Brad Hawpe weren't around, this wouldn't be close. He cost his team 40 plays which an average fielder would have made in center field. This is about 30 runs, or three "Wins." (you might hear me refer to Wins a lot, the accepted value is approximately 10 runs ~ 1 win - but runs or even plays work fine too) This is a ridiculous number.

UZR, which is kept by Mitchel Lichtman, who works for the Cardinals, uses the same Baseball Info Solutions data to split up the field and calculate the value of plays made or missed by a fielder, but this is proprietary to the Cardinals. However, a version using STATS, INC data is freely available on Fangraphs.com. UZR is very advanced and while I won't explain it here, it is probably the most widely-accepted defensive metric in existence. Well at least for the sabermetric community. Here is the simpler Fangraphs explanation, this is still UZR but using a different dataset. And it still agrees, rating McLouth as -13.8 runs overall in the field last year, in the bottom 10 of all outfielders.

I could go on and on, but the fact is all systems that actually look at the play-by-play data, whether it be BIS, STATS, Retrosheet, or anything else, when placed in context of his peers, expose McLouth as the relatively lousy fielder he is, or at least was in 2008. You make some good arguments using mostly more traditional stats, but the danger with using things like errors, especially for outfielders, is that outfielders hardly ever make errors anyway, and for one errors are completely subjective, at the mercy of the scorekeeper. He could be biased, stupid, or both, or it could just be a close play. Also, you see the plays the guy makes but you don't see an overlay of an average fielder making the same play that he doesn't get to or making the plays much easier. That's the advantage of the play-by-play data and how these systems truly compare the league as a whole. I liked the arm/baserunner stats you showed, and to be fair, UZR classified his arm as a minor positive in 2008. However, his range was atrocious. And that is what doesn't show up in errors, it doesn't show up in putouts to hurt him, because he probably never even gets to some routine line drive. This is why the Gold Glove is a joke as well as fielding %, and even Range Factor. At the individual level, they tell so little it is a shame. Usually the voters aren't this far off, but as I showed before, he has everyone "fooled" apparently. (I do admit he has improved this year, but he is still well below average and he has regressed with the bat a bit).

So there you have my long rambling argument. Of course, bruschi put it much more simply and concisely than I did, but I told you not to get me into this.

[crkraider22]

Now that all of that is out of the way...The percent of balls fielded for outs is on Baseball Reference, under the Fielding tab about halfway down that page. I wasn't trying to get into an arguement with all of this, being from Pittsburgh, all you hear and see is how great his defense is, and I wanted to see how others viewed and and formed their opinions. I understand the up-and-coming of sabermetrics and how useful they can be for scouting, but there comes a point where stats won't replace the human interface of the game and determining awards that are voted on. The only problem I have is determining one player's fielding based on team runs, there seems to be so many other factors that get brought into stats like these. A Gold Glove is awarded to the player(s) judged to have the most "superior individual fielding performance", not their effect on the team as a whole. There have been some interesting stats thrown around for both cases with McLouth, but my prediction is that he will be in the top 5 of Gold Glove OF again this year if he doesn't win one.

[BBTV]

Bobby Abreu won a gold glove in right field for the Phillies.

If that doesn't prove that the award is meaningless, nothing does.

[tBBP]

So who's next, Pirates? Duke or Maholm...or both--right along with Freddy Sanchez?

Didn't they get rid of the last GM partly due to him continuously making moves like this? Who's to say the Pirates' ownership didn't push this trade (though reports say the Braves came to the Pirates about it)? If that's the case, it ain't the GM...it's the ownership. I don't know for sure.

[mania]

I think it's a clear sign that the Pirates are committing to youth. And truthfully, I think it's a good thing, for the team.

You go after prospects you heavily believe in trades, invest, invest, invest in the international market (see: Sano), do not be afraid to go after guys with signability issues in the draft (but only if you're willing to go over slot), etc.

It's how Jon Daniels rebuilt the Rangers farm system from a Bottom 5 to #1 in a few short years, and I see no reason the Pirates can't do the same.