LAWeaver

Death of the Alliance of American Football

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1 hour ago, Gothamite said:

 

An AAF or XFL team won't be treated seriously in the NYC market, period.  It's minor-league ball at best.  Brooklyn and Staten Island will support minor-league baseball because it's cheap and local and this city runs on baseball.  But I don't see any reason to believe the city will support minor-league football to any significant degree.

You stole what I was going to post. But you should expand that thought to any city in the Midwest and Northeast.

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3 hours ago, Gothamite said:

An AAF or XFL team won't be treated seriously in the NYC market, period.  It's minor-league ball at best.  Brooklyn and Staten Island will support minor-league baseball because it's cheap and local and this city runs on baseball.  But I don't see any reason to believe the city will support minor-league football to any significant degree.

 

 

1 hour ago, buzzcut said:

You stole what I was going to post. But you should expand that thought to any city in the Midwest and Northeast.

 

It depends entirely on what you're definition of "treated seriously" means.  I think anyone who's approaching it from any direct mindset comparative to the NFL - in terms of gate attendance, media coverage, television revenue or any typically tangible metric - is not going to view either as "serious."  And by those types of metrics, they'd be right.

 

But it brings up a bigger question:  What constitutes success for each of these ventures?

 

If it's averaging 25,000 fans at each game in year one?  I think both are capable of that - in the case of the AAF based on some of the markets they've chosen, an in the case of the XFL because they did it the first time around, as did the USFL back in 1983.  Now if success is growing beyond that base and into a league that has teams regularly bringing in 40,000 for home games, or landing a TV deal that broadcasts games every week, or both?  That's another matter because the landscape has changed so much, and those are targets that the (fourth) AFL didn't even start hitting until 1965.  To get noticed, and stay noticed, they're going to have to do something extraordinary from the outset, then put out a continually decent football product over an extended period of time.

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58 minutes ago, Mac the Knife said:

It depends entirely on what you're definition of "treated seriously" means.  I think anyone who's approaching it from any direct mindset comparative to the NFL - in terms of gate attendance, media coverage, television revenue or any typically tangible metric - is not going to view either as "serious."  And by those types of metrics, they'd be right.

 

But it brings up a bigger question:  What constitutes success for each of these ventures?

 

 If it's averaging 25,000 fans at each game in year one?  I think both are capable of that - in the case of the AAF based on some of the markets they've chosen, an in the case of the XFL because they did it the first time around, as did the USFL back in 1983.  Now if success is growing beyond that base and into a league that has teams regularly bringing in 40,000 for home games, or landing a TV deal that broadcasts games every week, or both?  That's another matter because the landscape has changed so much, and those are targets that the (fourth) AFL didn't even start hitting until 1965.  To get noticed, and stay noticed, they're going to have to do something extraordinary from the outset, then put out a continually decent football product over an extended period of time.

 

The AFL and XFL will not average 25,000 fans in New York.  A tenth of that is more realistic.

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4 hours ago, Gothamite said:

 

The AFL and XFL will not average 25,000 fans in New York.  A tenth of that is more realistic.

 

The HitMen averaged 28,309 back in 2001.  How much do you want to lose wager that the 2020 version, presuming it's in the New York area, draws an average of 2,500 in its first season.  I'll give you 20:1 odds at an average of 2,500 on any amount you want to wager.  I'll give you 5:1 odds on a 10,000 over/under, and even money on a 25,000 over/under for any bet up to $100.

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The Red Bulls starting playing in February anyway. The Columbus Crew announced +new investors and a plan for a 22000-seat stadium. The Crew's present stadium can be converted. Cony Island will never work.

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17 hours ago, Gothamite said:

 

It is when you have to change trains at Journal Square for some stupid reason.  And when it takes an hour to get from your seat at RBA to the PATH platform, which it does whenever New York City comes to play in Harrison.

 

It shouldn't take 2 ½ hours to Brooklyn after a game.  But it does.

Ok, well that does make sense. I've never been to RB Arena, so you have more experience there. Does the WTC PATH go straight through to Newark? I thought hit did. What I hated was taking the PATH on the weekends from 34th because they stopped in Hoboken then turned around. By the way, I don't think Citifield would work for a team. 1. It's colder than Yankee Stadium (it sits on the bay near Laguardia Airport); 2. From South Brooklyn/Bay Ridge it is a long, brutal trip. The R to 36th for the D or N; N to Times Square, D to 42nd St. and a long walk to the 7, unless you change at B'way/Lafayette for the 6 to Grand Central. From Coney Island, a long trip on the F to 74th St. Queens then switch for a local. That is like 2 ½ hours. For me I have to take a 1 ½ hour bus ride from Bushwick to Flushing, then a 1-stop ride on the 7 to Citifield. And I don't think the Yanees would allow a team to play there, unless it is a big-budget game that will bring in fans. 

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55 minutes ago, NYC Cosmos said:

Ok, well that does make sense. I've never been to RB Arena, so you have more experience there. Does the WTC PATH go straight through to Newark? I thought hit did. What I hated was taking the PATH on the weekends from 34th because they stopped in Hoboken then turned around.

 

It does go straight through to Newark - Harrison is the stop before.

 

Here's the map showing service through October this year:

 

PATH-System-Route-Maps-lg.jpg

 

I don't understand why on Earth they would make us change at Journal Square to get from Harrison to WTC, but yet they do.  Every :censored: ing time.

 

 

55 minutes ago, NYC Cosmos said:

By the way, I don't think Citifield would work for a team. 1. It's colder than Yankee Stadium (it sits on the bay near Laguardia Airport); 2. From South Brooklyn/Bay Ridge it is a long, brutal trip. The R to 36th for the D or N; N to Times Square, D to 42nd St. and a long walk to the 7, unless you change at B'way/Lafayette for the 6 to Grand Central. From Coney Island, a long trip on the F to 74th St. Queens then switch for a local. That is like 2 ½ hours. For me I have to take a 1 ½ hour bus ride from Bushwick to Flushing, then a 1-stop ride on the 7 to Citifield. And I don't think the Yanees would allow a team to play there, unless it is a big-budget game that will bring in fans. 

 

 

Yeah, Coney Island is way out there.  I'd probably take the N to the G to the 7 myself, but there aren't many places in the city where Coney Island isn't at least one long subway ride away from.

 

New Shea is pretty convenient from most of the city, though.  Lots of lines intersect with the 7.

 

subway_map_Jul18_2400x2946.jpg

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9 hours ago, Mac the Knife said:

The HitMen averaged 28,309 back in 2001.  How much do you want to lose wager that the 2020 version, presuming it's in the New York area, draws an average of 2,500 in its first season.  I'll give you 20:1 odds at an average of 2,500 on any amount you want to wager.  I'll give you 5:1 odds on a 10,000 over/under, and even money on a 25,000 over/under for any bet up to $100.

 

2001 is not 2020.  Even the mighty NFL has seen slight attendance declines, as they have to compete with an explosion of entertainment competition, not to mention the fact that football is a game better experienced on television than in person.

 

Sure, maybe they have a novelty or curiosity bump in that first season (plus whatever promotional tickets they give away to inflate the numbers).  But a league has to look beyond its first season, and I will take your action that in the AAF or new XFL's third season, average attendance for the New York team will be closer to 2,500 than 25,000.  If a third season even happens.

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7 hours ago, Gothamite said:

2001 is not 2020.  Even the mighty NFL has seen slight attendance declines, as they have to compete with an explosion of entertainment competition, not to mention the fact that football is a game better experienced on television than in person.

 

Sure, maybe they have a novelty or curiosity bump in that first season (plus whatever promotional tickets they give away to inflate the numbers).  But a league has to look beyond its first season, and I will take your action that in the AAF or new XFL's third season, average attendance for the New York team will be closer to 2,500 than 25,000.  If a third season even happens.

 

I don't think they both survive beyond three years myself.

 

I did have a wicked fantasy league idea though:  an "Xperimental Football League," with 6 teams in 2019.  The season starts with the AAF's season on February 9th, then morphs into those of the Arena/National Arena Leagues once the AAF regular season ends, then morphs from there into the CFL once the Arena League seasons end.  Non-stop fantasy football from February to October.  For the truly addicted.

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Gotham: Being on the dreaded M line with all the hipsters, you would think that the MTA would have bus service from Metropolitan Avenue to 74th Street, Queens. Instead I have to take the dreaded B58 to Flushing, which takes 1 ½-2 hours. Thankfully, the mall in Flushing has a Nike outlet store and the savings are great so it is worth the trip....sometimes. The original INDs "Second System" (1920s) would have had a connection. There is actually a station shell with trackage at 74th that is now used to store equipment.  

 

In any event, the plan to build a soccer stadium next to Citifield has all but vanished. The new plan calls for the usual – shopping/housing and a station for the proposed AirTrain to LGA. As you know, stadia/stadia logistics in NYC is always going to be a problem. 

 

As for football in Columbus, since the Crew play in February, showing up for a February football game should not be a problem. 

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36 minutes ago, NYC Cosmos said:

Gotham: Being on the dreaded M line with all the hipsters, you would think that the MTA would have bus service from Metropolitan Avenue to 74th Street, Queens. Instead I have to take the dreaded B58 to Flushing, which takes 1 ½-2 hours. Thankfully, the mall in Flushing has a Nike outlet store and the savings are great so it is worth the trip....sometimes. The original INDs "Second System" (1920s) would have had a connection. There is actually a station shell with trackage at 74th that is now used to store equipment.  

 

In any event, the plan to build a soccer stadium next to Citifield has all but vanished. The new plan calls for the usual – shopping/housing and a station for the proposed AirTrain to LGA. As you know, stadia/stadia logistics in NYC is always going to be a problem. 

 

As for football in Columbus, since the Crew play in February, showing up for a February football game should not be a problem. 

The Crew start in March, almost all their preseason games are in Arizona or Carolina.  IT's still possible to play in February but I think the XFL will play a little later than the AAF. 

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1 hour ago, NYC Cosmos said:

In any event, the plan to build a soccer stadium next to Citifield has all but vanished. The new plan calls for the usual – shopping/housing and a station for the proposed AirTrain to LGA. As you know, stadia/stadia logistics in NYC is always going to be a problem. 

 

I don't think we know that it's "vanished" - from what I'm hearing NYCFC continues to negotiate with other developers looking to build in the Iron Triangle.  They just do everything as quietly as possible.

 

And yeah, building in the city is hard.  Ask the Yankees and Mets.  I was telling my fellow blue fans that they should expect the better part of a decade in Yankee Stadium.  Which might be why I'm less frustrated right now than so many of them.

 

 

1 hour ago, NYC Cosmos said:

As for football in Columbus, since the Crew play in February, showing up for a February football game should not be a problem. 

 

Big difference between the sports, though.  In Feburary, football fans in Columbus will only be a couple months away from the end of the college season, and only weeks away from the Super Bowl.  

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Gotham: I heard a little different. Governor Cuomo wants housing and retail and the skytrain to LGA. Attempts to build at Belmont have been a story for years and years. Even the Islanders gave up. So....a facility near the waterfront in Red Hook has been mentioned, but it has to be in conjunction with a street car line that was proposed to run from Red Hook to Greenpoint. Several things wrong with that: 1. it would cost billions for the line and ridership I don't think would justify it. 2. How do you get to it? The L to Bedford? The G to Greenpoint Ave. or Nassau Ave.? The G or F to Smith/9th St.? The whole thing doesn't make sense.

 

As for the AAFL, if the league is smart, and the numbers are ok for the first year, they take 2 expansion teams next year and one would be St. Louis. I think if they held to the MLS model – thoroughly vetting cities, they would be ok.

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To continue off-topic just a little longer, I think you may be conflating a couple things here.

 

20 hours ago, NYC Cosmos said:

Gotham: I heard a little different. Governor Cuomo wants housing and retail and the skytrain to LGA.

 

There's plenty of room for housing and retail and a stadium. But AirTrain?  Yes, everybody in the whole city wants the AirTrain extended to LaGuardia.  But that's not going to take up much room at all - we're talking two sets of tracks and a station,not that much real estate.

 

 

20 hours ago, NYC Cosmos said:

Attempts to build at Belmont have been a story for years and years. Even the Islanders gave up.

 

NYCFC wasn't ever very serious about building a stadium at Belmont.  And the Islanders' new arena at Belmont Park is about to start construction.

 

 

20 hours ago, NYC Cosmos said:

So....a facility near the waterfront in Red Hook has been mentioned, but it has to be in conjunction with a street car line that was proposed to run from Red Hook to Greenpoint. Several things wrong with that: 1. it would cost billions for the line and ridership I don't think would justify it. 2. How do you get to it? The L to Bedford? The G to Greenpoint Ave. or Nassau Ave.? The G or F to Smith/9th St.? The whole thing doesn't make sense.

 

You're right - it doesn't make sense.  Which is why nobody has seriously proposed such a thing.  Red Hook is too remote; any stadium needs to be on a subway line.  Not the PATH, not the LIRR, and not the BQX (which is a great idea but probably a digression too far ;)).  But no, nobody is suggesting a Red Hook stadium.

 

 

20 hours ago, NYC Cosmos said:

As for the AAFL, if the league is smart, and the numbers are ok for the first year, they take 2 expansion teams next year and one would be St. Louis. I think if they held to the MLS model – thoroughly vetting cities, they would be ok.

 

Could be.  But I'm not sure the AAF can afford to be as choosy as MLS has become.

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Well, if the City ever got its' head out of it's arse, and the BQX ever came to be, there are plenty of sites on the proposed line. Don't forget other places that have died: Sunnyside Yards and Aqueduct Race Track. Service on the A train to Aqueduct is the worst. The MTA would have to buy the old LIRR Rockaway line, convert it to a subway, and to make it feasible link it with the IND at 74th St. The problem is the :censored: NIMBYs who encroached on railroad property. Sunnyside would work for NYCFC. When East Side Access is finally finished, it opens Long Island (new LIRR station), you have the 7 train and you are right...the Lex Ave., 7th Ave, 6th Ave lines cross it, and there is access to the 8th Ave. line. So you have the A, B, C, D, E, F, N, Q, R, W, the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and SS lines crossing the 7. The technology to build a stadium over the yards is there. The caveat should be that the stadium is open to high schools and events – concerts, etc. and a possible AAFL team. Do you put a dome on it? Retractable? I think it would pay for itself.

 

Now, if the AAFL is reasonably successful, and they grow slowly, they have a chance to do what the USFL couldn't do. 2 teams a year, owners and cities fully vetted, then it wold be successful. So next year, do you go say St. Louis and Sacramento? That depends on the Railyards project. etc....

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On 8/14/2018 at 11:57 AM, Gothamite said:

 

subway_map_Jul18_2400x2946.jpg

 

Is it just the 14 year old in me sneaking out, or from this vantage point does Manhattan Island and the Bronx not look like a dangling penis and scrotum?

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2 minutes ago, Mac the Knife said:

Is it just the 14 year old in me sneaking out, or from this vantage point does Manhattan Island and the Bronx not look like a dangling penis and scrotum?

 

No comment.

 

Worth pointing out that this vantage point doesn't exist anywhere else in the universe - this is a map squeezed and folded to fit the various subway lines in one graphic.  This is what the city actually looks like:

 

New_York-NLT_Landsat7.jpg

 

I really hate the MTA's subway map.  I prefer a more elegant design, like Massimo Vignelli's or the Kickmap app.

 

vignelli-subway-map-19721.jpg

 

 ENSO-ENSIGHT-KickMap.jpg

 

 

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On 8/18/2018 at 2:58 PM, NYC Cosmos said:

Would Randall's Island be a possible location if they rebuilt the stadium on what they have now? Public transit to that area is so much better than it was when the Cosmos and Stars played there.

 

Unfortunately, the only public transit on Randall's Island is one bus line from upper Manhattan. The island is at least a half an hour's walk from the nearest subway stations, Astoria Boulevard in Queens, and Cypress Avenue in the Bronx.

 

Randall's Island is super-accessible by bicycle. But, of course, we are nowhere near the level of societal enlightenment that would be necessary in order to expect 20,000 people to arrive to a sporting event by bicycle.

 

Also, we face the problem that the crossings to the island from Queens and Manhattan do not officially allow bike riding. People do it anyway; but there frequently is enforcement on the bridge, which forces bicyclists to walk their bikes. The only legal bike access is a wonderful new connection from the Bronx.

 

Finally, that's a very nice fantasy subway map. I did a similar thing about 15 years ago.  Here it is:

map_subway_extended.png

 

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