Marlins ditching teal in new color scheme

[CubsFanBudMan]

I find it amusing that so many people are using the Mets as a reason a new team in New York can't succeed. If anything, it proves the opposite argument. I guess I'm just old, because 1962 doesn't seem that long ago to me, compared to 1903. I realize the old NL-AL separation makes it slightly different, but a third team would do fine in New York eventually. It might be the only guaranteed successful market out there, if it were allowed to happen. It might also cut into the Yankees' and Mets' local revenue, but that's another topic. All it would need to do is win to be the trendy rooting choice. (I'm seeing it happen in a different way here in Chicago with the Blackhawks.)

At the same time, to bring it back to Florida, the Marlins and Rays are just a generation younger than these "storied" Mets. That rich history also has the same number of titles as the Marlins (and I know, I know, the Cubs' 100-plus year old back-to-back titles). I think a team with some history would fare even better than an expansion team in New York, but I don't believe either is going anywhere. The upsides for the Tampa Bay and Miami markets are probably nowhere near what being the third option in New York would be, but that doesn't mean they aren't viable. I don't think either has had everything aligned just right. Let's see what happens after the Marlins get their stadium if they field a winner.

I'm not trying to rip on the Mets or their fans here, but it's funny how a few decades and winning makes all the difference in perception.

And finally, to bring it back on topic, the Marlins should not ditch teal. Ever.

[BBTV]

You yourself said the area is solidly behind New York teams. There's no market for a third team. Mets and Yankees fans won't give up being Mets and Yankees fans. Moving from Tampa to northern New Jersey would be moving from one bad market to another. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have fans who are already loyal to another team. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have a situation where sellouts are only guaranteed when OTHER teams come to play.

It looks like Tampa's not going to work as a MLB market. I won't disagree there. Moving them to New Jersey, however, is one of the most terrible ideas I've ever heard. It's on par with saying MLB needs another team in Chicago.

Actually, while I don't think it's a good idea, I don't think it's the worst idea. It's one of those things that will absolutely NOT have instant success, but could, over time, have tremendous up side. Kids growing up in the North Jersey burbs who either follow the team since they were young, or get their drivers licenses and instead of driving or training it to NY for the NYY or NYM, just drive to the New Jersey Rays game because it's close, then get sold on it even more, then raise their kids as Rays fans, etc. There are certainly enough people to support a third team, it just takes a generation or two to get past the existing loyalties.

Which means after about 5 or 10 years, the "experts" on this board will declare the whole thing a failure and a joke and demand the team be moved again.

There's a huge difference between giving a team a chance to succeed in a market with little-to-no competition and a team in a (albeit huge) market with generations of loyalties to overcome.

Do you seriously think the Mets, the Yankees, and the city of New York would let the Rays move into their backyard after they just spent billions of dollars on new parks? This Jersey thing is as moot as moot can be.

Well yeah, of course. Speaking in total hypotheticals here... pointless reel-line-mint if you will.

You yourself said the area is solidly behind New York teams. There's no market for a third team. Mets and Yankees fans won't give up being Mets and Yankees fans. Moving from Tampa to northern New Jersey would be moving from one bad market to another. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have fans who are already loyal to another team. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have a situation where sellouts are only guaranteed when OTHER teams come to play.

It looks like Tampa's not going to work as a MLB market. I won't disagree there. Moving them to New Jersey, however, is one of the most terrible ideas I've ever heard. It's on par with saying MLB needs another team in Chicago.

Actually, while I don't think it's a good idea, I don't think it's the worst idea. It's one of those things that will absolutely NOT have instant success, but could, over time, have tremendous up side. Kids growing up in the North Jersey burbs who either follow the team since they were young, or get their drivers licenses and instead of driving or training it to NY for the NYY or NYM, just drive to the New Jersey Rays game because it's close, then get sold on it even more, then raise their kids as Rays fans, etc. There are certainly enough people to support a third team, it just takes a generation or two to get past the existing loyalties.

Wasn't that the line peddled by the folks who angled for a team in Tampa in the first place (sans the "third team" of course)?

"Sure most of the fans in the area are transplanted Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox fans, but just give it time. It'll just take a generation or two to get past the existing loyalties."

I get that there are existing loyalties in Tampa, but come on - it's 1,200 miles away - it's not like they're ignoring the Rays to go to the Bronx instead. You go to games (even if it is to see the NYY or BOS) with your kid, he has a great time and wants to go back, so you end up going back even when it's not to see "your" teams, and that kid becomes a fan, and so do you because you're rooting on the team for his sake, etc. It's much easier for it to happen quicker in a situation like with the Florida teams, even if it is fair to say that many of the old-heads down there are Yankee fans. They're going to die soon anyway... isn't that the reason they're down there to begin with?

[Gothamite]

Exactly.

People aren't staying away from the Rays because they're Yankee fans, they're staying away because the Tampa Bay area is a lousy baseball market.

The evidence is overwhelming. Great team, but nobody cares. Even with the artificial boost provided by playing a higher number of games against the two of the top road draws, they languish near the bottom of the attendance standings.

They spend the entire 2008 season in first place in their division, win the pennant, go to a World Series. draw 26th out of 30 teams. Average attendance: 22,259. "But," the Tampa defenders cry, "you can't judge them by their attendance that year. You have to look for the huge bounce they get next season." Okay, so the next season they still have the best young team in baseball, and draw an average of 23,147. There's your huge jump. They manage to claw their way up to 23rd. And again, their numbers are artificially elevated by extra home games against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Frankly, it's pathetic. I am loath to say any market doesn't deserve its team, but this one is really quite obvious.

[Gothamite]

But back on track, I hope the Marlins can turn their problems around. I just wish they would do it in Creole Blue and silver, with black and orange accents.

[CubsFanBudMan]

I think it's hard to call a market a failure until you get the equation "new stadium + winning team = still no attendance." I'm not as adamant as some about baseball facilities (I'll watch and enjoy a game anywhere) but I find it hard to believe that if you took PNC Park from the dismal Pirates and set it down next to the Trop (or an even better location) that it wouldn't improve their performance in that market. Do the Rays deserve better based on how they've performed on the field? Absolutely. But as someone who wishes fewer people came to my home team's stadium just to have fun and more people came to watch baseball, the atmosphere has to be considered a factor. Maybe I've read too much on the Coyotes, but I'm still giving the Rays a pass.

(And the Marlins should never ditch the teal.)

[Gothamite]

I really don't think you're seeing a whole surge of baseball fans in Tampa and St. Pete who say "gosh, I'd love to go to the games, but that stadium is just ugly." Especially when they have the best young team in baseball, if not the best team overall.

Yankee fans and Red Sox fans manage to make it out to St. Petersburg, why can't Rays fans?

[SilverNRed]

I really don't think you're seeing a whole surge of baseball fans in Tampa and St. Pete who say "gosh, I'd love to go to the games, but that stadium is just ugly." Especially when they have the best young team in baseball, if not the best team overall.

What if the stadium is a misearable place to get to and/or a terrible place to see a baseball game? It does matter. A lot of the fun of attending a baseball game doesn't have to do with the quality of the team - especially if you're a parent with little kids.

Yankee fans and Red Sox fans manage to make it out to St. Petersburg, why can't Rays fans?

I'm thinking displaced Yankees and Red Sox fans in Florida make it out there because that's their only option to see their teams without getting on a plane. If you're only going to get 8 or 9 chances a year to see your team play, you're going to make the most of it.

Another thing to consider is that right now there are very few (if any) adults with children who grew up as Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays fans. A big part of team loyalty comes from going to games as a kid with your parents. That's a big advantage for older teams with tradition.

[CubsFanBudMan]

I don't think it's just about "ugly," but that certainly could be a deterrent for the type of casual fans I'm talking about. I tend to think more about "outdoors." When making a choice of where to spend a beautiful summer day in Tampa Bay, I'm guessing the Trop isn't high on the list, good team or not.

I'll admit I don't have a good feel for the market, but I think they started with a disadvantage in that stadium (even though that's why they got the team) with bad ownership and that they have yet to overcome it with winning. Maybe this season will make the difference. At least they didn't break up the 2008 team.

(Marlins belong in teal.)

[Gothamite]

I've been to the Trop - it's not that hard to get to. I know Tampans have this thing about crossing the Frankland Bridge, but they'll just have to get over it.

The Rays have been in existence long enough that they ought to have a fanbase. I know, fathers and sons and all that, but it starts now. Fathers have to take their kids to these ballgames in order for those kids to take theirs in twenty years. I'm sorry, but "I won't go see the best team in baseball because the franchise isn't thirty years old" is a really lame excuse.

[TruColor]

Ironically, they call this color "Marlin Blue"; not Teal:

[The Six]

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2012 AL MVP, from the Portland Rosebuds, Evan Longoria!

[SilverNRed]

I don't think it's just about "ugly," but that certainly could be a deterrent for the type of casual fans I'm talking about. I tend to think more about "outdoors." When making a choice of where to spend a beautiful summer day in Tampa Bay, I'm guessing the Trop isn't high on the list, good team or not.

Bingo.

[CubsFanBudMan]

Well, I've always found expansion teams fascinating. The NBA's Heat and Hornets are the first I really remember, even though I was around in the late '70s. But with baseball being my favorite sport I've always "followed" the Rockies, Marlins, Rays and Diamondbacks. I have no clue where these teams should be along their expansion journey, but they certainly have all reached higher levels of success than my team in the same span. I guess the Rockies are the only real off-field and on-field success of the four?

It seems like baseball requires more commitment than any other sport because of the 162-game schedule and the fewer playoff spots. My guess is that it takes longer to establish the emotional connection to agree to the time and financial commitment a baseball season ticket -- or multiple games -- requires.

Even the numbers you [EDIT: Gothamite] quoted earlier were better than seven other teams. All but two have modern stadiums. What is the magic formula for a team coming off a World Series in a smaller market? Do we even know? The Marlins probably didn't get much of a bump after winning in 2003 and they kept a lot of that team around. [EDIT: I'm wrong. 2002: 10,038; 2003: 16,290; 2004: 22,091] Finished with about the same record as the '09 Rays. I see the Rays at 23,000 and No. 23 and say good for them. I don't expect them to have the 40,000 the Cubs have. I saw 500 at Marlins games in 2002. Pittsburgh is at 19,000 and have 17 consecutive losing seasons and a great stadium -- what are the long-term prospects for that market? And Cleveland seemed solid with its sellout streak way back when, but now? Oakland doesn't win like it used to, doesn't draw and doesn't have a stadium, with the added negative of competition nearby. Isn't that market in more trouble than Tampa Bay? And just what market is going to support the Rays at a better than 23,000 clip? Portland? I ask because I see the last best destination Washington right there at 22,000. Maybe 23,000 is enough? I'm honestly curious. I'm not intending to come off as defensive or combative. Who is MLB's OKC?

Searching for some perspective, I started looking at attendance numbers on baseball-almanac. Even the Cubs didn't draw 20,000 in the early 1980s. (I know, different eras, but again, what is the magic number? And isn't it different for each franchise?) And they were at 23,000 in 1986, 2 years after the '84 team revived interest. They were at 27,000 in 1997, before the 1998 home run chase and wild card skewed things again. All this in a much bigger market. Even the jump from 1984 to 1985 was only 500 a game, likely because people got caught up in the playoff run during the 1984 season. So maybe a better stat is between 1983 and 1984 for the Cubs (an increase from 18,000 to 26,000) and 2007-08 for the Rays (an increase from 17,000 to 22,000). Doesn't look as bad to me in that light.

It seems strange that the 2008 team didn't give the Rays more of a boost, but we've just started the school-year summer, right? Maybe those dads will start taking their kids to see the best team in baseball soon and it will carry over to a successful postseason.... and maybe the honeymoon will last a little longer this time. Or actually start.

(Sorry. No one's going to read all that. Marlins + teal [EDIT: Marlin Blue] forever.)

[IceCap]

You yourself said the area is solidly behind New York teams. There's no market for a third team. Mets and Yankees fans won't give up being Mets and Yankees fans. Moving from Tampa to northern New Jersey would be moving from one bad market to another. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have fans who are already loyal to another team. Like Tampa in New Jersey you have a situation where sellouts are only guaranteed when OTHER teams come to play.

It looks like Tampa's not going to work as a MLB market. I won't disagree there. Moving them to New Jersey, however, is one of the most terrible ideas I've ever heard. It's on par with saying MLB needs another team in Chicago.

Actually, while I don't think it's a good idea, I don't think it's the worst idea. It's one of those things that will absolutely NOT have instant success, but could, over time, have tremendous up side. Kids growing up in the North Jersey burbs who either follow the team since they were young, or get their drivers licenses and instead of driving or training it to NY for the NYY or NYM, just drive to the New Jersey Rays game because it's close, then get sold on it even more, then raise their kids as Rays fans, etc. There are certainly enough people to support a third team, it just takes a generation or two to get past the existing loyalties.

Wasn't that the line peddled by the folks who angled for a team in Tampa in the first place (sans the "third team" of course)?

"Sure most of the fans in the area are transplanted Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox fans, but just give it time. It'll just take a generation or two to get past the existing loyalties."

I get that there are existing loyalties in Tampa, but come on - it's 1,200 miles away - it's not like they're ignoring the Rays to go to the Bronx instead. You go to games (even if it is to see the NYY or BOS) with your kid, he has a great time and wants to go back, so you end up going back even when it's not to see "your" teams, and that kid becomes a fan, and so do you because you're rooting on the team for his sake, etc. It's much easier for it to happen quicker in a situation like with the Florida teams, even if it is fair to say that many of the old-heads down there are Yankee fans. They're going to die soon anyway... isn't that the reason they're down there to begin with?

I'm not saying Tampa can work, far from it. It's the Phoenix Coyotes all over again (sans a new stadium, which is why I give the Rays a slight break).

All I'm saying is that northern New Jersey is a terrible market as well. Its Yankees and Mets country. There's no room for a third team. Like I said before, it's the equivalent of saying a third team can work in Chicago.

Move the Rays to Portland. New Orleans. Los Vegas. Vancouver. All of those markets are vastly preferable to putting a third team in the greater New York market.

[Gothamite]

It seems strange that the 2008 team didn't give the Rays more of a boost, but we've just started the school-year summer, right? Maybe those dads will start taking their kids to see the best team in baseball soon and it will carry over to a successful postseason.... and maybe the honeymoon will last a little longer this time. Or actually start.

(Sorry. No one's going to read all that. Marlins + teal [EDIT: Marlin Blue] forever.)

I read it.

You simply can't compare numbers from the 1980s. The eras are too different. The only real indicator is comparing teams within an era, and the Rays have dramatically underperformed at the box office, even (especially) when they've been among the best teams in baseball.

[CubsFanBudMan]

I think in some ways that's my point. It's not fair to compare the 2010 Rays to the 2010 Cubs or 2010 Yankees. But why is 23,000 and No. 23 bad for Tampa Bay? What should the number be? That's what I wanted to know. It won't be 40,000.

I guess what I was trying to find was a team that struggled at the gate before finding success, and how long it took to sustain that success. And when exactly did it become a success. The Cubs of the '80s came to mind. The phenomenon that exists today is a result of three seasons -- 1984, 1998 and 2003. Each year provided a bump. I was surprised to find that the attendance in 1984-1986 wasn't as great as I imagined.

Picking the Cubs, while just pure bias and curiosity on my part, was a terrible team to compare the Rays to -- or so I thought. But is a big market team of the 1980s really a terrible comparison to a small market team of 2008-2010? The answer is still probably yes. But I found more similarities then I imagined.

I'm sure the Rays will never get to the "Wrigley party" stage of sellouts and a lucrative secondary-ticket market without a new stadium and a reduced capacity that increases demand, but it is possible that 2010 will build on 2008 and maybe, just maybe, they'll be considered legit by the time that lease expires.

Perhaps 1990s Seattle would be a better comparison? I'll have to take a look when I have more time.

(Keep the Marlin blue.)

[Gothamite]

I don't think you can ever compare across eras, that was my point. In some time periods, an average of 23,000 is good, in some it's lousy. You can only look at what other teams are drawing in the same period.

The Rays are one of the best teams in the American League. And yet they're drawing flies. I've heard lots of excuses why that might be the case, but nothing which seems compelling.

There's no single magic number. But a great young team, stocked with stars, should be drawing better than they are.

Besides, if the problem is that "a beautiful summer day" is so tempting that nobody wants to spend it at the ballpark, how do we account for the fact that most games are at night? Is 8:00 pm so alluring on the beaches that it's drawing the baseball-loving masses of Tampa Bay?

[SilverNRed]

I'm not saying Tampa can work, far from it. It's the Phoenix Coyotes all over again (sans a new stadium, which is why I give the Rays a slight break).

I think the Phoenix Coyotes are a bad comparison. Hockey is a regional sport. It's a winter sport played on ice; how is it supposed to work in the desert? Do kids play hockey there? Are there ice rinks? All the really successful NHL teams play in cities where kids grow up playing hockey.

Kids in Florida definitely do play baseball. Hell, they can play it year-round. Of course major league baseball can work in Florida. But for Tampa Bay, you can't ask people to pay top dollar to sit inside on a summer day to watch a baseball game played in a giant gymnasium. It's just lame.

[Gothamite]

So, the problem is... what, exactly?

The roof?

The outfield dimensions?

What exactly is forcing all the Tampa Bay area baseball fans to avoid watching the best team in baseball live and in person?

If they need a state-of-the-art stadium with all the distractions or a pretty backdrop to justify buying tickets, then it proves my point - lousy baseball market.

[ZapRowsdower8]

This should probably go into the Grind your gears thread, but it is kind of on (the new) topic so I will just say it here. I have lived down in the Tampa Bay region for a year now (thats a gear grinder itself) and the vocal support for the Rays is fantastic, but people are always coming up with excuses as to why they don't go to games. It's too far away (Wrong, it's right off of the highway and easy to get to), it's too expensive (Some of the cheapest tickets in MLB for one of the best teams), the Trop is a horrible building (It's not great, but compared to some of the old 70's donuts it's nice for the average fan.) But the number one excuse is parking. "$20 for parking is insane!" say the locals. Nevermind the fact that there are five dollar lots all over the place if you don't mind walking 3 blocks.

My biggest problem... the local ESPN Radio affiliate plays the Yankee games... all 162. Then the sports talk hosts (The Fabulous Sports Babe, remember her!) complain about people that have lived here for 20 years not supporting the Rays.

We can discuss the merits of cities being major league caliber (population, local business, money in the region, ect...) but sometimes I think a city should just pass the "does this town feel Major League" test. What does your gut say. For Tampa, my gut says "no." I mean, I know way to many born and raised locals that think hanging out at an Applebee's bar is a fun Friday night. That shouldn't happen in a major league city!

Teal is awesome!