2012 MLB Season

[Epiphanic]

The Washington Nationals are 77-46, 7 games up in their division (and 10-4 against the Braves), have an offense that is rounding into form, and the best pitching staff in baseball.

Furthermore, the American League has been quite stricken by parity this year - the World Series is as up for grabs as ever. I think only the Reds are near the Nationals level in the NL.

So tell me, once again, how they can logically support shutting down their best pitcher? They are not guaranteed to be this good in 2013/14/15 - they have a chance for the title, they've gotta take it. Flags Fly Forever.

I was going to wait to respond to this until the end of the season, but I'll do it now. The snarky answer is...

You. Don't. Get it.

The Nationals have said they were going to do this program with Strasburg and shut him down when he had the surgery two years ago. They did the exact same thing with Jordan Zimmermann last year after he had his surgery. Everyone who has paid attention to the Nationals has known this is coming. Now if you ask Strasburg he's gonna want to pitch the entire season. Zimmermann even said that he thought he was strong at this point last year when the Nationals shut him down. He has said this year he is much stronger and realizes that shutting him down early last year was a benefit to his career. No one expected the Nationals to be this freaking good this year. And because they are World Series contenders, people are all "WHY YOU SHUT DOWN STRASBURG?!?!" This shutdown is about the long-term health of one of the greatest pitchers in a generation and the long-term health of the franchise. The Nationals are not looking to potentially burn their greatest asset for a slightly better shot at winning a title they could win anyway. Even some guy on the internet named "Kramerica Industries" thinks the Nationals have the best pitching staff in baseball.

For funsies, let's look at their pitching staff.

1. Stephen Strasburg: 136 ERA+, 1.127 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 11.2 K/9

2. Gio Gonzalez: 123 ERA+, 1.161 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 9.5 K/9

3. Jordan Zimmermann: 156 ERA+, 1.115 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 1.7 BB/9, 4.0 K/9

4. Edwin Jackson: 108 ERA+, 1.174 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9

5. Ross Detwiler: 122 ERA+, 1.164 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9

And for your further enjoyment

6. John Lannan: 118 ERA+, 1.231 WHIP, 6.2 H/9, 4.8 BB/9, 4.8 K/9 (2 games this season)

What do we learn from this? 1. Strasburg is a great pitcher. 2. Strasburg is not necessarily the best pitcher on the team! When Strasburg isn't you best pitcher, that's a good problem to have. Let's take Strasburg away. We're left with a rotation of

Gonzalez (legitimate ace)

Zimmermann (legitimate ace)

Jackson (solid pitcher w/ "post-season experience")

Detwiler (essentially Gonzalez with fewer strikeouts)

And Lannan has been pretty servicable when called upon this year. He's an average pitcher, but even being average has value.

I'd be willing to bet that every team in baseball would love a Gonzalez-Zimmermann-Jackson-Detwiler-Lannan rotation. In fact, that rotation is probably still better than a lot of rotations out there. The Nationals are more than capable of winning the World Series without Strasburg.

Strasburg does not guarantee the Nationals a World Series title. Therefore, it doesn't make sense to jeopardize his career and the fortunes of the franchise for a marginally better shot this year. Shutting Strasburg down is the right move for the long-term health of his arm and the franchise.

[crashcarson15]

Remember, this isn't Rizzo who came up with 160-180 innings, it's the doctors' number for how much his arm can legitimately support at this stage in his recovery.

[BrySmalls]

Epiphanic's post is a spot-on assessment of the Nats pitching staff.

For what it's worth, I have enjoyed watching Gio pitch this season and I am happy that he's with the Nats until 2016.

[epper]

I completely disagree, Epiphanic. What it boils down to is this:

They are going to shut him down to improve their chances to do what? Win championships (in the future.) But his year might be the best chance they ever have to win one. The NL is incredibly weak this year (down years for Philly, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Colorado all at once). Yes, they have a strong staff without him, but do you really want to take the chance of sending Edwin Jackson out for a pivotal playoff game? What if they pull Strasburg out this year, the Nats flame out in the playoffs, and then he blows out again next year anyways? You'll always be left wondering 'what if'. I would be furious if I was a Nats fan.

They babied Strasburg when he first came up and he still blew his arm out. I dont think there is any magical number that will save a pitchers arm. Strasburg doesn't know, Doctors don't know, and Mike Rizzo doesn't now. Leave the kid in and go win a title. If he blows his arm out again, but has a ring on his finger, it will all have been worth it.

[Funky Bunky]

If he blows his arm out again, but has a ring on his finger, it will all have been worth it.

That's where you are extremely wrong. I don't really have an opinion on whether or not he should be shut down, but the point of taking extra precaution is not to benefit the team, but to benefit the team AND Strasburg. Professional teams are not just factories where you try to squeeze everything out of the employees, but they are a joint opporation where the players are there for the team and the team is there for the players. They owe it to Strasburg to try and turn him into the best pitcher that he can be, which in turn, helps the team. If they happen to blow out his arm by pitching him too much, then Strasburg is cheated out of a long career and the benefits of having a long career. I'm not saying I believe they should shut him down, but they need to do what they believe is best for everybody.

...and since the Nationals already have a great pitching staff, they don't necesarily need Strasburg, which makes for there to be even less reason to not shut him down.

[TheOldRoman]

I was just talking about this with a friend. I fully understand why the Nats decided to shut down Strasburg. I don't think they have gone about it the right way. Heading into June, it was pretty apparent the Nats were having a special season and had a great rotation 1-5. They should have started skipping Strasburg every second or third start. It wouldn't have hurt them very much. Maybe throw him on the DL once or twice with a BS excuse to give him a breather. Get him to the 160-170 mark at the end of September. Not only would the innings have been less stressful because he had more rest in between starts, but that would allow him to be considered for the postseason. At that point, if 3-4 postseason starts pushed his innings total to 180-190, it wouldn't be as taxing since that number would be spread out over an extra month.

Yes, right now it looks like the Nats have enough to possibly win the World Series without Strasburg. However, the playoffs are often a crapshoot and you want to have your biggest weapons ready. The Nats might never get this good of a team again. Seattle hasn't made the playoffs since winning 116 games in 2001. Strasburg could hypothetically become the best pitcher in the last 100 years and still retire without a championship. You have to put everything into winning it all when you have a chance like this. They are obviously past the point of using my suggestion, so I think they should shut him down at 180, but I think they planned it wrong.

[Sport]

I'd understand it more if the Nationals were 15 games back, but they have the best record in baseball and a good shot at winning it all RIGHT NOW. The future is more uncertain than the present. Take your opportunity while you have it. And isn't the point of having Stephen Strasburg so you have the best shot at a winning a World Championship?

We, and the Nationals, don't know if they'll be in this situation again. They probably will be back because they're set up for the future, but you never know what could happen. Injuries, regression, off-years, the inherent randomness of the post-season are all very real factors that could lead to the Nationals not winning it all and not being as good in the next few years. If he's healthy right now I think you take the risk because you never know when you'll be back and then next thing you know you're the early 90's Pirates.

I don't understand it, but if it helps the Reds get past Washington, I'm all for it.

[Funky Bunky]

The Nats are also quite a bit younger than the 2001 Mariners.

[Epiphanic]

You're right that we don't know if pitching or not pitching Strasburg will lead to more injuries, however the fact of the matter is the Nationals staff believe that pitching him too much this year will lead to unnecessary strain and make him susceptible to injuries later in his career. They're taking this tack to hoping to give Strasburg the best chance at being a 200-inning dominating horse for years to come.

What if Strasburg pitches, they still flame out of the playoffs and then blows his arm out again? Will it still have been worth it? I say no. You have to be in October to win in October, and I'd rather the Nationals do what they can to give themselves the best chance at winning a series of division titles to play in October. This might be their only chance to win, but I'm willing to bet that it's not. And if Strasburg gets burned out because the team overworked him this year, I'd be more pissed about that than any kind of "missed opportunity" this year.

If you can guarantee that using Strasburg would win the Nationals a World Series title, then maybe, maybe it would be worth it to let him go. But the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot (to paraphrase Billy Beane), so the higher risk of ruining his arm isn't worth the added probability of winning it all this year.

Regarding, Edwin Jackson pitching in a pivotal playoff game, I'd be okay with it.

IN RIZZO WE TRUST!

Edit: A few more replies while I was composing mine.

Heading into June, it was pretty apparent the Nats were having a special season and had a great rotation 1-5. They should have started skipping Strasburg every second or third start. It wouldn't have hurt them very much. Maybe throw him on the DL once or twice with a BS excuse to give him a breather. Get him to the 160-170 mark at the end of September. Not only would the innings have been less stressful because he had more rest in between starts, but that would allow him to be considered for the postseason. At that point, if 3-4 postseason starts pushed his innings total to 180-190, it wouldn't be as taxing since that number would be spread out over an extra month.

They did think about that, and they actually did that with Zimmermann a bit. But they found that Zimmermann pitched worse with the longer rest. At the beginning of the season, they felt that it would be best for Strasburg to take the mound every 5th day, have a routine, and get shut down when he's done. So that's the plan they've stuck with. You can argue that maybe they should've started him in June instead of April or whatever, but they didn't.

The important thing is that this situation doesn't have any kind of precedent. Everything that we all say is just pure speculation and I choose to believe that the Nationals are taking the course that will benefit them the best going forward.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but we don't have that benefit.

[Kramerica Industries]

...and since the Nationals already have a great pitching staff, they don't necesarily need Strasburg, which makes for there to be even less reason to not shut him down.

I don't buy this logic at all.

Ross Detwiler and Jon Lannan have had productive seasons, to be certain, but if the choice in the playoff rotation were to come down to either of those two, or Strasburg, I think the answer is obvious. You can never stack the deck too much, be it in the lineup, rotation, or bullpen, when it comes time to play for the championship. The Phillies had one of the best rotations in recent memory last year, and didn't even make it out of the first round. The 2006 Yankees had one of the best lineups in recent memory, and didn't make it out of the first round.

You can't protect against the randomness of baseball, but you can give yourself a better chance to advance in spite of it.

[Kramerica Industries]

That is an excellent post, Epiphanic, but I'll tell you what I do get:

I get that the Nationals have the best record in baseball.

I get that MLB as a whole is down this year - the NL is top-heavy, and I don't think any of the Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, or Pirates would be likely to beat the Nationals in a playoff series. The Reds would be tough, and I'm not going to trash the Braves entirely, but it's usually about this time of year they head into the tank anyway. The American League hasn't had a great team since their last World Series champion - the only team to give the Nats fits in interleague play, the Yankees, were on a scalding hot tear at that point in time. It's fully possible for Washington to beat any of those teams, should it come down to it.

I also know that the city of Washington hasn't seen a playoff baseball game since the 1933 World Series, which was 79 years ago.

I'm not trying to fully denounce the logic behind protecting a valuable arm like Strasburg's for the long haul, but I thought the Nats were a playoff calibre team long before the season began. They played excellent ball to finish 2011, and then they only strengthened their rotation when they added Gio. I said 94 wins back in March. No one expected them to be on a 101 win pace, but I would have to question Nats management if they didn't think they were likely to be in the playoff chase down the stretch.

--

I'm not a Nationals fan, so this doesn't affect me one way or another. But I remember in 2009 when Joba Chamberlain was in a similar situation, with an innings cap. Around August, the Yankees decided to give Jobber extended rest, and this backfired tremendously. At the end of August, they decided to limit his starts to 3-4 innings, or 35 pitches, one of those two. Even dumber. He was basically worthless for the remainder of the regular season, a total question mark in the bullpen during the playoffs, and, just for kicks, he hasn't even started a game since 2009! He was back in the bullpen in 2010, and blew out his arm anyway in 2011.

All pitchers are not created equal, obviously. But just as this approach could have a fortuitous end - Washington wins the WS and Strasburg maintains purported health - it could also have a tragic ending - Strasburg and the Nats never do make it back to the level they're at in 2012. These are things we cannot be knowledgeable of in the present time.

[TheOldRoman]

The Nats are also quite a bit younger than the 2001 Mariners.

Okay, then look at the 2007 Diamondbacks. They were the last team that made the baseball world say, "Wow, these guys are going to win a lot of championships." Well, they were terrible the next three seasons. They won a division last year, but it's obvious they never became as good as they looked to be in 2007. Or take a look at the 2007 Rockies. They were loaded with young talent. They faltered in 2008 and had another crazy run to win the Wild Card in 2009, but they never became a great team. The 2000 White Sox had the best record in the American League and the #1 ranked farm system. Young pitchers' arms started falling off and their prized prospects ended up failing. The golden era didn't come. When they won the World Series in 2005, they did it due to incredible trades and thrifty free agent signings.

The Nats sure look like they are going to be serious contenders for a good while, but you never know. Especially considering they share a division with the Braves (very talented and a good organization), the Phillies (very talented with loads of money to spend) and the Mets (could take over the division if they got competant management), there are no guarantees.

[Funky Bunky]

...and since the Nationals already have a great pitching staff, they don't necesarily need Strasburg, which makes for there to be even less reason to not shut him down.

I don't buy this logic at all.

Ross Detwiler and Jon Lannan have had productive seasons, to be certain, but if the choice in the playoff rotation were to come down to either of those two, or Strasburg, I think the answer is obvious. You can never stack the deck too much, be it in the lineup, rotation, or bullpen, when it comes time to play for the championship. The Phillies had one of the best rotations in recent memory last year, and didn't even make it out of the first round. The 2006 Yankees had one of the best lineups in recent memory, and didn't make it out of the first round.

You can't protect against the randomness of baseball, but you can give yourself a better chance to advance in spite of it.

I do agree with you that having Strasburg pitch in the playoffs would help their chances, but since they do have a good rotation around him, they don't necessarily need him to win. Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Jackson are all pretty good pitchers, and could definitely get it done. The 2008 Phillies didn't have that great of a rotation, and they went all the way, so not having Strasburg doesn't mean they won't be able win in the playoffs. The Nationals don't revolve around Strasburg, so it's not like they absolutely need him. Having him would be great, but they don't NEED him, especially with what they have around him.

[Sport]

So I just heard that baseball is going back to the 2-3 format for the divisional series.

Uhhhh, why?

[Funky Bunky]

So I just heard that baseball is going back to the 2-3 format for the divisional series.

Uhhhh, why?

They should just make the Division series a 7 game series. It doesn't matter what format you make it, it will still be a total crapshoot.

[NJTank]

The Washington Nationals are 77-46, 7 games up in their division (and 10-4 against the Braves), have an offense that is rounding into form, and the best pitching staff in baseball.

Furthermore, the American League has been quite stricken by parity this year - the World Series is as up for grabs as ever. I think only the Reds are near the Nationals level in the NL.

So tell me, once again, how they can logically support shutting down their best pitcher? They are not guaranteed to be this good in 2013/14/15 - they have a chance for the title, they've gotta take it. Flags Fly Forever.

I addressed that today on my page, I agree compltley he cant be shut down the Nats have a chance to go far in October and a Pennant is worth the risk. If the Nats were 5 games out of the Wild Card than I can see shutting Strasburg down, but he is pitching strong and the Nats are going to win the NL East.

http://www.sportsecyclopedia.com/

[The_Admiral]

Boy, if I'm some longtime journeyman on the Nationals and my season ends because John Lannan got lit up while Precious wasn't allowed to start, I'd go punch Mike Rizzo in the mouth.

Okay, then look at the 2007 Diamondbacks. They were the last team that made the baseball world say, "Wow, these guys are going to win a lot of championships." Well, they were terrible the next three seasons. They won a division last year, but it's obvious they never became as good as they looked to be in 2007. Or take a look at the 2007 Rockies. They were loaded with young talent. They faltered in 2008 and had another crazy run to win the Wild Card in 2009, but they never became a great team.

2007 was a pretty weird season, huh. That was also the year that the forever-up-and-coming Cleveland Indians arrived! And then they, too, just lost to the Red Sox! And then they were average forevermore.

[Funky Bunky]

Bartolo Colon suspended for 50 games for failed drug test.

[BrySmalls]

So I just heard that baseball is going back to the 2-3 format for the divisional series.

Uhhhh, why?

They should just make the Division series a 7 game series. It doesn't matter what format you make it, it will still be a total crapshoot.

I assume that MLB and/or the MLBPA want to either have enough time between games for teams to rest or ensure that the World Series doesn't end in November.

[The_Admiral]

Then extend the regular season by two games and get rid of the Division Series. What the hell has ever happened in a Division Series.