2013-14 NBA Season Predictions

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

Pretty much all the big names have landed, and I'm sure there'll be some more significant trades, but for the most part, we've got a good idea of what's happening.

A few playoff teams (Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Denver, Lakers) have taken steps back, while others have taken steps forward. I think specifically in the East, there are 3 playoff spots completely up for grabs.

EAST

1. Miami (68-14)

2. Indiana (60-22)

3. Brooklyn (53-29)

4. Chicago (53-29)

5. New York (48-34)

6. Atlanta (41-41). Lost Smith, but with a solid core and Millsap and Elton Brand added, should be competitive still.

7. Detroit (40-42)

8. Cleveland (38-44)

9. Washington (36-46)

10. Milwaukee (32-50). Thankfully kept Jennings, but losing your top scorer never helps.

11. Toronto (28-54)

12. Charlotte (23-59)

13. Philadelphia (25-57). Lost Holiday and Young. Added no one that will have any immediate impact. Huge step backwards.

14. Boston (22-60)

15. Orlando (20-62)

I know I look like a homer putting Detroit at 7, but I mean look after New York, and it's pretty brutal. I think they're the best of the worst. The last 6 are really in no particular order. Washington or Milwaukee could be the 8th seed just as easily.

WEST

1. LA Clippers (61-21)

2. San Antonio (58-24)

3. OKC (57-25)

4. Golden State (54-28)

5. Houston (52-30)

6. Memphis (51-31)

7. Minnesota (44-38)

8. New Orleans (41-41)

9. Portland (40-42)

10. Dallas (40-42)

11. LA Lakers (38-44)

12. Denver (37-45)

13. Utah (29-53)

14. Phoenix (23-59)

15. Sacramento (21-61)

PLAYOFFS-

LA Clippers over New Orleans (4-1)

San Antonio over Minnesota (4-2)

OKC over Memphis (4-2)

Golden State over Houston (4-3)

Golden State over LA Clippers (4-3)

San Antonio over OKC (4-2)

San Antonio over Golden State (4-2)

Miami over Cleveland (4-1)

Indiana over Detroit (4-1)

Brooklyn over Atlanta (4-0)

Chicago over New York (4-2)

Miami over Chicago (4-2)

Brooklyn over Indiana (4-3)

Miami over Brooklyn (4-3)

FINALS

Miami over San Antonio (4-2)

AWARDS:

MVP: LeBron James

DPOY: Joakim Noah

MIP: Andre Drummond

6MOY: Andrei Kirilenko

ROY: Victor Oladipo

COY: Jason Kidd

EOY: Billy King

CBPOY: Derrick Rose

Most improved team(s):

Minnesota (+14 wins. All depends on Love's health and whether they get the Pekovic situation dealt with, but they could be a serious threat. Martin and Brewer were nice additions)

New Orleans (+14 wins. Solid moves picking up Holiday and Evans)

Detroit (+12 wins. Josh Smith adds a scoring factor we haven't seen since Rip Hamilton was scoring 18. Chauncey will provide a solid mentor role to Knight. Caldwell-Pope should be able to make a decent splash. Monroe and Drummond will both be better)

Team that will fall the furthest: Denver (-20 wins). Loss of Karl, Igoudala and their GM, along with Gallinari being out will be fatal losses.

[Evil G]

Washington will be better than Detroit and Altanta...

[Lights Out]

EAST:

1. Miami

2. Indiana

3. Brooklyn

4. New York

5. Chicago

6. Detroit

7. Cleveland

8. Washington

9. Atlanta

10. Milwaukee

11. Boston

12. Toronto

13. Charlotte

14. Orlando

15. Philadelphia

(Man, the East is even more soul-crushingly mediocre than usual.)

WEST:

1. San Antonio

2. Oklahoma City

3. LA Clippers

4. Houston

5. Golden State

6. Minnesota

7. Memphis

8. New Orleans

9. Denver

10. LA Lakers

11. Dallas

12. Portland

13. Utah

14. Sacramento

15. Phoenix

PLAYOFFS

East:

1Miami over 8Washington

2Indiana over 7Cleveland

3Brooklyn over 6Detroit

5Chicago over 4New York

1Miami over 5Chicago

2Indiana over 3Brooklyn

1Miami over 2Indiana

West:

1San Antonio over 8New Orleans

2Oklahoma City over 7Memphis

3LA Clippers over 6Minnesota

4Houston over 5Golden State

1San Antonio over 4Houston

3LA Clippers over 2Oklahoma City

1San Antonio over 3LA Clippers

Finals: Miami over San Antonio

AWARDS:

MVP: LeBron James

DPOY: Tim Duncan

MIP: Andre Drummond

6MOY: Jamal Crawford

ROY: Victor Oladipo

COY: Doc Rivers

EOY: Daryl Morey

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

Washington will be better than Detroit and Altanta...

Come on now...I think I was a little generous putting them at 11. All they have is John Wall.

[worcat]

I see the Lakers finishing at 12 or 13. Kobe won't be back at the start of the season and all they have is Gasol and Nash. Dallas and Utah will finish above LAL.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

^ Dallas yes. I think they'll be quite decent. They added a legitimate scoring punch in Monta Ellis, coupled with Dirk and the solid supporting cast of Marion, Carter and Calderon. They do still need a big man, but it looks as though they're gearing up to contend, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a big trade. Don't get me wrong, they're still a bubble team, but don't count them out.

Utah on the other hand, will be brutal. The two decent pieces they had in Millsap and Jefferson are gone.

[DustDevil61]

^ Dallas yes. I think they'll be quite decent. They added a legitimate scoring punch in Monta Ellis, coupled with Dirk and the solid supporting cast of Marion, Carter and Calderon. They do still need a big man, but it looks as though they're gearing up to contend, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a big trade. Don't get me wrong, they're still a bubble team, but don't count them out.

Utah on the other hand, will be brutal. The two decent pieces they had in Millsap and Jefferson are gone.

I pretty much agree on Utah, though strangely enough, I'm not quite as upset about losing Millsap and Jefferson as I am with losing DeMarre Carroll. Few, if any, Jazz fans were expecting to see both Millsap and Jefferson return, so I resigned myself to losing at least one--losing both wasn't a terribly big surprise. (Though how quickly it happened was.)

The thing about Carroll, though, is that he's a physical, hustle-type player that showed up night in, night out while with Utah, and while certainly not the best player on the team, he brought a lot of intangibles that helped the team. He reminds me a lot of Matt Harpring, who had the same type of physicality and put in the same kind of effort. I was hoping that he'd stick around and help the young guys grow. It wouldn't have been that costly to keep him around, but I've heard/read some rumblings that he walked away from the Jazz, not the other way around.

The bright side to losing all the pieces is that it's now pretty clear what direction the team is heading--yes, 2013-14 will be a rebuilding year, but at least Utah isn't floating in this "We might just squeak into the playoffs but if not we might just squeak into a high pick" haze like they have been for the last 3 years. Call me a homer, but the Utah Jazz have positioned themselves very well after this season.

The main goal this year will be 3- or 4-pronged, depending on how you look at it:

1. Developing the young core (see below)
   
2. Hoping to land a top-level pick with a promising 2014 Draft
   
3. Using the financial flexibility Utah currently has to sign post-rookie deals for the core, and
   
4. Using said financial flexibility to land a talented vet next summer when the CBA takes further effect.*
   

Of course, there's the chance that things don't pan out as hoped** (there always is), but at the same time it's also refreshing to see that GM Dennis Lindsey is willing to take some risks and make deals. After all, without that wheeling and dealing, Trey Burke wouldn't be with the Utah Jazz.^

Though, in retrospect, I wished that Utah had held onto Devin Harris, as Marvin Williams has been disappointing. Then again, he'd probably get more playing time anyways in lieu of Trey Burke.

*Basically, picking up a player that someone else can't hold on to.

**Almost everyone in "the core" (Burke/Favors/Hayward/Burks/Kanter) is still a question mark more than anything, though Favors, and to a lesser extent Hayward and Burks, look promising. Granted, the reason why these players remain question marks is that "haze of mediocrity" I explained above-- vets like Al Jefferson, Mo Williams, and so forth would be favored in terms of playing time, thus limiting the development of the young guys. Ignoring the final record come April 2014, this year will have a lot to say about the young guys and Coach Ty Corbin--it is, after all, a contract year.

^I say this despite his poor summer league outing. In his defense, however, playing in the Orlando Summer League with little to no practice doesn't say much.

I'll post my predictions later.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

^ Right. It seems over the past 10 years, they keep adding all these solid pieces, and just hover around mediocrity. Then, just when it seems they could get better, it's back to square one. Must be frustrating. I've always liked the Jazz back to the Stockton-Malone days. I've always had a fascination with how successful they are in such a (relatively) small city, how loyal the fan base is, etc.

[DustDevil61]

^ Right. It seems over the past 10 years, they keep adding all these solid pieces, and just hover around mediocrity. Then, just when it seems they could get better, it's back to square one. Must be frustrating. I've always liked the Jazz back to the Stockton-Malone days. I've always had a fascination with how successful they are in such a (relatively) small city, how loyal the fan base is, etc.

I wouldn't exactly call the late 2000s Williams-Boozer era mediocre (at least the 2007-08 club)*. But yea, it's been a somewhat frustrating cycle.

*I thought they legitimately had a chance in 2007-08 when they had the likes of Williams, Boozer, Korver, Okur, etc. blow out the eventual champion Celtics in Boston by, what, 26? The Jazz were favorites to win the West before the Lakers magically got Pau Gasol and lost to, (guess who?) in the the 2nd round.

[Evil G]

Washington will be better than Detroit and Altanta...

Come on now...I think I was a little generous putting them at 11. All they have is John Wall.

And Bradley Beal and Okafor.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

Washington will be better than Detroit and Altanta...

Come on now...I think I was a little generous putting them at 11. All they have is John Wall.

And Bradley Beal and Okafor.

I stand corrected. I put them at 3 then.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

^ Right. It seems over the past 10 years, they keep adding all these solid pieces, and just hover around mediocrity. Then, just when it seems they could get better, it's back to square one. Must be frustrating. I've always liked the Jazz back to the Stockton-Malone days. I've always had a fascination with how successful they are in such a (relatively) small city, how loyal the fan base is, etc.

I wouldn't exactly call the late 2000s Williams-Boozer era mediocre (at least the 2007-08 club)*. But yea, it's been a somewhat frustrating cycle.

*I thought they legitimately had a chance in 2007-08 when they had the likes of Williams, Boozer, Korver, Okur, etc. blow out the eventual champion Celtics in Boston by, what, 26? The Jazz were favorites to win the West before the Lakers magically got Pau Gasol and lost to, (guess who?) in the the 2nd round.

Yes...right. And the year they had Fish, that was the year before right? And they made it to the West finals?

[dfwabel]

^ Dallas yes. I think they'll be quite decent. They added a legitimate scoring punch in Monta Ellis, coupled with Dirk and the solid supporting cast of Marion, Carter and Calderon. They do still need a big man, but it looks as though they're gearing up to contend, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a big trade. Don't get me wrong, they're still a bubble team, but don't count them out.

They actively participated in throwing two years of Dirk down the drain, with nothing to show for it but for games lost due to injury. DAL essentially blew up their blueprint to sign a major free agent and have cap flexibility just to sign a diminishing skills PG in Calderone who will improve PG play, but may not have been good in the first place. Ellis is a great player if you play fantasy basketball, but has deficiencies in the real world. He is inefficient (something Cuban hates) and he is a 6'3" SG who cannot play on-ball defense (something Carlisle requires).

Signing Dalembert does not do any team any good, especially he has made nearly $82 million in career earnings with nothing to show for it.

Who will they be able to trade? Marion or Carter? Dirk is coming off the books and no players signed in the off-season can be traded until Dec. 15 or 90 after signing, whichever date is later.

SI's Rob Mahoney got it right:

It’s safer for Dallas to take this course, and understandable given the franchise’s allegiance to Nowitzki. With these signings, Dallas has given Dirk an honest chance at another playoff run — a right that such a phenomenal player unquestionably deserves. But the total of Ellis and Calderon’s deals represent a swift, empty departure from the plan that was intended to land the Mavs their next superstar. The rebuild has been diverted, but is no less inevitable nor in any way made easier. In that, it’s worth wondering what exactly the last two seasons — spent in waiting for a star that never came — really accomplished; with two seasons of Nowitzki’s career now essentially forfeit and the team’s risks invalidated by short gains, Dallas isn’t merely the victim of a bad turn of luck but an active participant in its own idling. Landing a superstar was always to be a longshot, but in taking that gamble only to later submit to these ends, the Mavs have at least in part betrayed the flexibility they gave up so much to create.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

I've edited my picks slightly. I've dropped the Lakers (forgot that Kobe will be out for a while), Nuggets (lost their best player and Coach of the Year) and Mavs (good points made above, although I still think they'll be in the playoff hunt). I think that both New Orleans and Portland will be much improved and will fight over the 8th and final spot. Minnesota's fate ofcourse- as has been the case the past 2 years- depends on Kevin Love's health. I'm going to bank on him playing most of the season, along with the addition of Kevin Martin and Muhammed and the improvement of their young players.

[hbgoo1975]

My predictions so far.....

East

The Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Pacers, Hawks, Cavs and Pistons

The Celtics won't make the playoffs.

West

The Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, Rockets, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Trailblazers, Suns

The Lakers will miss the playoffs not one, not two, but three straight years.

[ninersdd]

Suns making the playoffs? No way!

[dfwabel]

I've edited my picks slightly. I've dropped the Lakers (forgot that Kobe will be out for a while), Nuggets (lost their best player and Coach of the Year) and Mavs (good points made above, although I still think they'll be in the playoff hunt). I think that both New Orleans and Portland will be much improved and will fight over the 8th and final spot. Minnesota's fate of course- as has been the case the past 2 years- depends on Kevin Love's health. I'm going to bank on him playing most of the season, along with the addition of Kevin Martin and Muhammed and the improvement of their young players.

You are still way off since it looks like only the MIL has offered Pekovic a RFA contract, so MIN is seemingly be able to keep him for four years at less $$$ than Love. If healthy in December, Love and his two years for $31M are about to be dealt. Martin and Muhammad do one thing well...take shots away from others on bad teams. At UCLA, Muhammad played in more college games (32) than he had assists (27), so you know he cannot put the ball on the floor.

Back to DAL, last season, they were near the worst in total rebounding and next to last in REB +/- (-300), but there is a chance they not only add Ellis, but also Dalembert from MIL, who were dead last in opponent REB. If you cannot rebound the ball, adding Calderone, Ellis, and any other currently available big man is not going to assist to make you better than before when Dirk, Marion, and Carter are a year past 35.

[Funky Bunky]

EAST:

1. Miami

2. Indiana

3. Brooklyn

4. New York

5. Chicago

6. Detroit

7. Cleveland

8. Washington

9. Atlanta

10. Milwaukee

11. Boston

12. Toronto

13. Charlotte

14. Orlando

15. Philadelphia

WEST:

1. LA Clippers (82-0)

2. Oklahoma City

3. San Antonio

4. Houston

5. Golden State

6. Minnesota

7. Memphis

8. New Orleans

9. Denver

10. Phoenix

11. Dallas

12. Portland

13. Utah

14. Sacramento

15. LA Sparks (Kobe out for the whole season with sore jaw)

PLAYOFFS

East:

1Miami over 8Washington

2Indiana over 7Cleveland

3Brooklyn over 6Detroit

5Chicago over 4New York

1Miami over 5Chicago

2Indiana over 3Brooklyn

1Miami over 2Indiana

West:

1LA Clippers over 8New Orleans

2Oklahoma City over 7Memphis

3San Antonio over 6Minnesota

4Houston over 5Golden State

1LA Clippers over 4Houston

3 San Antonio over 2Oklahoma City

1LA Clippers over 3San Antonio

Finals: LA Clippers over Miami

AWARDS:

MVP: Chris Paul

DPOY: Blake Griffin

MIP: J.J. Reddick

6MOY: Jamal Crawford

ROY: whoever the Clippers drafted

COY: Doc Rivers

EOY: Gary Sacks

I don't watch, nor care, about the Clippers.

[tigerslionspistonshabs]

^ Fairly solid predictions. I wouldn't be surprised if Kobe sat out the whole season. I mean, it's not like the Lakers will do much this year, so why not sit it out, snag one of the big prizes in next years free agency and go for the gold then.

[Evil G]

I love you, Funky Bunky. I really do.

East:

1. Miami
   
2. Brooklyn
   
3. Chicago
   
4. Indiana
   
5. N.Y. Knicks
   
6. Washington
   
7. Cleveland
   
8. Toronto
   
9. Detroit
   
10. Boston
    
11. Atlanta
    
12. Milwaukee
    
13. Philadelphia
    
14. Orlando
    
15. Charlotte
    

West:

1. Oklahoma City
   
2. L.A. Clippers
   
3. San Antonio
   
4. Houston
   
5. Golden State
   
6. Memphis
   
7. Minnesota
   
8. New Orleans
   
9. Denver
   
10. Dallas
    
11. Utah
    
12. Portland
    
13. Sacramento
    
14. Phoenix
    
15. L.A. Lakers