2013 NFL Off-Season Thread

[CS85]

Geno Smith reacts rationally after becoming a New York Jet.

NFL suspends Jax WR Blackmon 4 games. Details.

[AHcreative]

Warning: head-scratching rambling prophecies ahead

I've slept 4 or 5 hours in 3 days, and I'm stuck here at work until 7AM. To kill time I've decided to go through every team with their updated depth charts and rank each franchise according to 10 different variables each ranked out of 10 along with a negative impact depending on the difficulty of their division.

[CS85's ridiculously awesome predictions]

I like the way you think sir! I would love to see this happen.

...except have the Rams beat those no-good cheating bastards.

[NJTank]

I guess Geno Smith does not suscribe to the theory that when you are a Jet you are a Jet all the way from your first buttfumble to your last broken play.

[TheOldRoman]

I guess Geno Smith does not suscribe to the theory that when you are a Jet you are a Jet all the way from your first buttfumble to your last broken play.

[Sport]

Warning: head-scratching rambling prophecies ahead

I've slept 4 or 5 hours in 3 days, and I'm stuck here at work until 7AM. To kill time I've decided to go through every team with their updated depth charts and rank each franchise according to 10 different variables each ranked out of 10 along with a negative impact depending on the difficulty of their division.

For example, the Bills:

BUF - 57.9/100

QB: 6.7

HB/FB: 7.5

WR/TE: 6.8

OL: 7.1

DL: 8.4

LB: 7.5

DB: 6.9

ST: 7

HC: 4

DIV: -4

Here's what the results dictated:

AFC NORTH (-3.5)

BAL - 70.2

PIT - 62.8

CIN - 62.4

CLE - 57.8

AFC SOUTH (-4)

HOU - 72.6

IND - 64.5

TEN - 61.7

JAX - 56.4

AFC EAST (-4)

NE - 71.9

MIA - 65.6

NYJ - 58.2

BUF - 57.9

AFC WEST (-3)

DEN - 73.4

SD - 67.2

KC - 65.1

OAK - 60.4

NFC NORTH (-5)

GB - 70.7

CHI - 68.2

MIN - 67.1

DET - 65

NFC SOUTH (-4)

ATL - 71.1

NO - 67.7

CAR - 66.1

TB - 59.4

NFC EAST (-6)

NYG - 72.3

WAS - 65.8

DAL - 62.7

PHI - 62.4

NFC WEST (-3.5)

SF - 74.5

SEA - 66.7

STL - 65

AZ - 64.5

------

Using these ratings, I then applied Random Events, including drawing 3 teams that would suffer injuries (giving them a -5 to their overall rating), 4 teams that would underwhelm slightly (-3), and one team that would be a complete meltdown (-8). In addition there was one Exceeded Expectations team (+3) and one Surprise team (+5). All these bonuses would apply gradually over a period of weeks dependent on the bonus amount.

I did those using random lottery, each team getting more opportunities for good and bad based on their rating. The results for that were as follows:

INJURY: Colts, Saints, Dolphins

UNDERWHELM: Cowboys, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders

MELTDOWN: Bears (of course, I couldn't believe that )

EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS: Rams

SURPRISE: Bengals

This leaves the end-season standings as follows:

AFC NORTH

Baltimore - 11-5

Cincinnati - 10-6

Pittsburgh - 6-10

Cleveland - 3-13

AFC SOUTH

Houston - 14-2

Tennessee - 8-8

Indianapolis - 8-8

Jacksonville - 2-14

AFC EAST

New England - 11-5

Miami - 5-11

NY Jets - 3-13

Buffalo - 3-13

AFC WEST

Denver - 14-2

San Diego - 11-5

Kansas City - 7-9

Oakland - 6-10

NFC NORTH

Green Bay - 12-4

Minnesota - 10-6

Detroit - 8-8

Chicago - 4-12

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta - 9-7

Carolina - 9-7

New Orleans - 6-10

Tampa Bay - 5-11

NFC EAST

NY Giants - 15-1

Washington - 10-6

Philadelphia - 7-9

Dallas - 6-10

NFC WEST

San Francisco - 14-2

St. Louis - 12-4

Seattle - 9-7

Arizona - 7-9

NFC PLAYOFFS

1. NY Giants

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Atlanta

5. St. Louis

6. Minnesota

AFC PLAYOFFS

1. Houston

2. Denver

3. New England

4. Baltimore

5. San Diego

6. Cincinnati

Implementing new playoff variables drawn from a hat (good/bad luck bonuses), the Superbowl randomly came down to the St. Louis Rams vs. the New England Patriots, with the Pats winning.

------

Obviously you're reading all this and you're like "what the ?" but believe me, this was a solid way to kill 4 hours and if it comes true next season I am a genius and unquestionable football god.

I can't wait to see how this turns out. If it's even slightly close you are a genius and you should be doing this as a living.

One thing, why do you have the Bengals as the surprise team when they'd have the same 10-6 record they did a year ago and have been a playoff team 3 out of the last 4 years? Was that a random draw?

[chuckymack]

People who aren't Cincy fans are always surprised when the Bengals aren't a doormat.

[CS85]

Warning: head-scratching rambling prophecies ahead

I've slept 4 or 5 hours in 3 days, and I'm stuck here at work until 7AM. To kill time I've decided to go through every team with their updated depth charts and rank each franchise according to 10 different variables each ranked out of 10 along with a negative impact depending on the difficulty of their division.

For example, the Bills:

BUF - 57.9/100

QB: 6.7

HB/FB: 7.5

WR/TE: 6.8

OL: 7.1

DL: 8.4

LB: 7.5

DB: 6.9

ST: 7

HC: 4

DIV: -4

Here's what the results dictated:

AFC NORTH (-3.5)

BAL - 70.2

PIT - 62.8

CIN - 62.4

CLE - 57.8

AFC SOUTH (-4)

HOU - 72.6

IND - 64.5

TEN - 61.7

JAX - 56.4

AFC EAST (-4)

NE - 71.9

MIA - 65.6

NYJ - 58.2

BUF - 57.9

AFC WEST (-3)

DEN - 73.4

SD - 67.2

KC - 65.1

OAK - 60.4

NFC NORTH (-5)

GB - 70.7

CHI - 68.2

MIN - 67.1

DET - 65

NFC SOUTH (-4)

ATL - 71.1

NO - 67.7

CAR - 66.1

TB - 59.4

NFC EAST (-6)

NYG - 72.3

WAS - 65.8

DAL - 62.7

PHI - 62.4

NFC WEST (-3.5)

SF - 74.5

SEA - 66.7

STL - 65

AZ - 64.5

------

Using these ratings, I then applied Random Events, including drawing 3 teams that would suffer injuries (giving them a -5 to their overall rating), 4 teams that would underwhelm slightly (-3), and one team that would be a complete meltdown (-8). In addition there was one Exceeded Expectations team (+3) and one Surprise team (+5). All these bonuses would apply gradually over a period of weeks dependent on the bonus amount.

I did those using random lottery, each team getting more opportunities for good and bad based on their rating. The results for that were as follows:

INJURY: Colts, Saints, Dolphins

UNDERWHELM: Cowboys, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders

MELTDOWN: Bears (of course, I couldn't believe that )

EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS: Rams

SURPRISE: Bengals

This leaves the end-season standings as follows:

AFC NORTH

Baltimore - 11-5

Cincinnati - 10-6

Pittsburgh - 6-10

Cleveland - 3-13

AFC SOUTH

Houston - 14-2

Tennessee - 8-8

Indianapolis - 8-8

Jacksonville - 2-14

AFC EAST

New England - 11-5

Miami - 5-11

NY Jets - 3-13

Buffalo - 3-13

AFC WEST

Denver - 14-2

San Diego - 11-5

Kansas City - 7-9

Oakland - 6-10

NFC NORTH

Green Bay - 12-4

Minnesota - 10-6

Detroit - 8-8

Chicago - 4-12

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta - 9-7

Carolina - 9-7

New Orleans - 6-10

Tampa Bay - 5-11

NFC EAST

NY Giants - 15-1

Washington - 10-6

Philadelphia - 7-9

Dallas - 6-10

NFC WEST

San Francisco - 14-2

St. Louis - 12-4

Seattle - 9-7

Arizona - 7-9

NFC PLAYOFFS

1. NY Giants

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Atlanta

5. St. Louis

6. Minnesota

AFC PLAYOFFS

1. Houston

2. Denver

3. New England

4. Baltimore

5. San Diego

6. Cincinnati

Implementing new playoff variables drawn from a hat (good/bad luck bonuses), the Superbowl randomly came down to the St. Louis Rams vs. the New England Patriots, with the Pats winning.

------

Obviously you're reading all this and you're like "what the ?" but believe me, this was a solid way to kill 4 hours and if it comes true next season I am a genius and unquestionable football god.

I can't wait to see how this turns out. If it's even slightly close you are a genius and you should be doing this as a living.

One thing, why do you have the Bengals as the surprise team when they'd have the same 10-6 record they did a year ago and have been a playoff team 3 out of the last 4 years? Was that a random draw?

Any of the "bonuses/pitfalls" were done by lottery. After doing the initial scoring for every team and putting them in order, I printed off every team's name. If the team was 1st in the division they would get one chance, 2nd two, etc. THEN I did the total reverse. This way I had two different lottery groups to randomly draw from - one that made being bad give you more opportunities to be good, and one that did the opposite.

When I drew the bonuses i would change the lottery pile I chose from, but each team had a chance to benefit/suffer. The random results proved that (stupid Bears).

The bonus/pitfall names are simply that. All they really are is names given to appropriate tiers of points. The Patriots could've gotten the "Surprise Team" bonus even though them being good as hell isn't at all a surprise. Same goes for a team that got the metldown pitfall.

And if this thing is even close to relevant then I may try to do it every year and refine it. That being said, if I have a girlfriend/life next year, no promises, lol.

[BlueSky]

Heard on Sirius that Mark Barron had to give up #24 to Revis. Barron will now be #23. Nice.

[Breakwood]

So a kid I used to play football with signed with the Tennessee Titans. Pretty big deal when you come little ole Milton, ON to not only play high level football, but NFL to boot. Will he actually get in a game? I doubt it, but it's an incredible achievement. If he does get cut, I'm sure he will catch on as a starter in the CFL.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/football/marauders-offensive-lineman-matt-sewell-signs-with-titans/article11595424/

[dfwabel]

Link 1: The Full Jerry Jones Conference Call (about 70 minutes) audio in talking to Season Ticket Holders

Link 2: "The Ticket" mocking Jerry's Conference Call (10 minutes) from about the lack of scheme for the Kiffin Cover-2 and the need for younger players with angles/instincts. AKA they must dummy down a Tampa-2 to gain success in this NFL. I am sad I still bought in with tix since 2002, but sold most of my tix since 2009.

[Coast2CoastAM2006]

Link 1: The Full Jerry Jones Conference Call (about 70 minutes) audio in talking to Season Ticket Holders

Link 2: "The Ticket" mocking Jerry's Conference Call (10 minutes) from about the lack of scheme for the Kiffin Cover-2 and the need for younger players with angles/instincts. AKA they must dummy down a Tampa-2 to gain success in this NFL. I am sad I still bought in with tix since 2002, but sold most of my tix since 2009.

I'm more surprised they think the Tampa 2 will still work in the NFL. Yet I'm still amused at fans I work with that think they are super bowl bound now that they have the Tampa Bucs coordinators and the tampa 2 defense. I personally expect the same as last year.

[TheOldRoman]

The Tampa 2 absolutely still works in the NFL. You just have to have the personnel to run it. Last year, the Bears had the best defense statistically in the league. There were years under Lovie where "Cover 2 has been figured out" and the defense was mediocre, right after Tank Johnson ran himself out of the league and Tommie Harris turned from future hall-of-famer to oft-injured slug. It's not a magic bandaid that will make an untalented defense perform better, but it can still work, even be elite, if the team has the right talent. That being said, it's the Cowboys, so this will turn out to be a disaster.

[The_Admiral]

The Bears' problem with the Tampa 2 was overcommitting to it and being too proud to adjust to offenses. Yeah, it works to perfection when you have the right people, but anything works when you have the right people. Sometimes you have to give up a little execution in exchange for some flexibility, but the Bears didn't like to do that, so it became easy to slant them to death. Maybe Lovie Smith just doesn't work in the NFL anymore.

[CS85]

Vikings release Kluwe.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000167052/article/chris-kluwe-expected-to-be-released-by-minnesota-vikings?campaign=Twitter_atl

[The_Admiral]

HEY GUYS I'M REALLY SMART AS FAR AS FOOTBALL PLAYERS GO LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME I PLAY VIDEO GAMES AND STUFF ASK ME ANYTHING ON REDDIT PROBABLY ALSO SOMETHING ABOUT NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON PLEASE GOD JUST PAY ATTENTION TO ME AND TELL ME HOW SMART I AM I'M REALLY SMART

[Shumway]

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2013/5/7/4310504/titus-young-arrested-lions

Well, at least he's not on the Lions anymore.

[See Red]

The Tampa 2 absolutely still works in the NFL. You just have to have the personnel to run it. Last year, the Bears had the best defense statistically in the league. There were years under Lovie where "Cover 2 has been figured out" and the defense was mediocre, right after Tank Johnson ran himself out of the league and Tommie Harris turned from future hall-of-famer to oft-injured slug. It's not a magic bandaid that will make an untalented defense perform better, but it can still work, even be elite, if the team has the right talent. That being said, it's the Cowboys, so this will turn out to be a disaster.

Sean Lee would make a pretty damn good Tampa 2 MLB. He could also excel at the will LB spot with Bruce Carter in the middle. They can do it well, in my opinion, but I also don't know enough about their defensive line or safeties. Are they planning on playing Ware at LB or DE?

[MellowTheMyth]

Titus Young is an example of what your career will be if you can't keep you mouth closed. That + his frustration = his release from Detroit. Now he can't find a job because of that one incident. St. Louis almost went through the trouble, but came to senses 10 days after. Now this guy is getting arrested twice in the same day.

[illwauk]

HEY GUYS I'M REALLY SMART AS FAR AS FOOTBALL PLAYERS GO LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME I PLAY VIDEO GAMES AND STUFF ASK ME ANYTHING ON REDDIT PROBABLY ALSO SOMETHING ABOUT NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON PLEASE GOD JUST PAY ATTENTION TO ME AND TELL ME HOW SMART I AM I'M REALLY SMART

It still beats listening to marginally literate guys who made it through college without ever going to class tweeting scripture every five minutes.

<shrug>

[OnWis97]

HEY GUYS I'M REALLY SMART AS FAR AS FOOTBALL PLAYERS GO LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME I PLAY VIDEO GAMES AND STUFF ASK ME ANYTHING ON REDDIT PROBABLY ALSO SOMETHING ABOUT NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON PLEASE GOD JUST PAY ATTENTION TO ME AND TELL ME HOW SMART I AM I'M REALLY SMART

It still beats listening to marginally literate guys who made it through college without ever going to class tweeting scripture every five minutes.

<shrug>

Kluwe can be a tool but he's very smart, articulate, and funny. And I maintain there is value to an NFL player (albeit a punter), sending the message that the NFL is not all a bunch of bigots.

As far as him getting cut...

I love Chris Kluwe. I am a Vikings fan. I agree with his stances about gay marriage and gay rights. I am troubled by an NFL that seems uncomfortable with players that have interests outside of football.

All that said, I feel that he allowed the distractions to interfere with his performance last year. Either that or he just had a bad year (though after the election, he seemed to improve some). I don't know whether to take Spielman on the level or not (that his views had nothing to do with the cutting)...I still think some of the NFL prefers Chris Culliver's attitude to Chris Kluwe's, but it would be hard for me not to admit that he was inconsistent last year. This is the same team that drafted a kicker to replace popular Ryan Longwell last year and it worked out tremendously. I don't know that this was a necessary move, but it is probably a good move.

As for Kluwe, I hope he gets a shot elsewhere. His ability warrants a shot, but he's not only going to have to kick the ball well, he's going to have to convince a team that he can be as focused on his job as he was in years past. If he's not focused on his job, then he risks another inconsistent year...and it's going to be a red flag. He could have worked for the cause (helping defeat the gay marriage amendment...which Minnesota did, becoming the first state to do so) in a bit more of a dignified manner and possible, the Vikes would not have used a pick on a Punter. But the bottom line is that he had a rough year...and he's a different kind of guy...one that does not eat/sleep/drink football...so I think it's going to be a red flag and I think he's kicked his last ball in the NFL. I hope some other (and more prominent) player steps up in a "you can play" kind of way with Kluwe and Ayanbadejo both probably done.