Expansion game! Expansion game!

[RyanB06]

Now let's really play the game. Wrap your brain around this:

The scenario: You are the owner of a small-market franchise struggling at the gate. Your city has a metropolitan area of about 200,000. You decide to move to a larger city, but not one that's too large - you certainly don't want to be a small fish in a big pond. After careful consideration, two cities emerge as your prime choices:

CITY A: PMSA of 456,022

CITY B: PMSA of 459,479

For the purpose of this scenario, assume all other things are equal; both cities have built new facilities in the last five years and both are relatively affluent (though not necessarily in the city itself).

Which city do you pick, considering market sizes are nearly identical? Oh, and no fair looking up which city is which.

You've got till midnight to decide. Then I'll post which city is which.

[Phil]

Since I know neither is Winnipeg I'd of course pick the bigger one, all other things in fact being perfectly equal.

This of course not being the case, 3000 more people is hardly a factor when considering where I move... immaterial. Growth rate would be a far more influential factor, as in a city of that size, a 1 percent increase in growth rate would leave the initial difference null and void in the space of less than one year.

But what's yoiur point? I'm assuming someone in recent memory (probably the ECHL) picked City A recently over City B?

[RyanB06]

This is purely hypothetical. I'm just interested in seeing what some folks' thought processes would be.

And yes, neither city is Winnipeg. I've got the PMSA there at 671,274; that's what Statistics Canada said when I looked it up.

[See Red]

459,479. Dunno why, either. Just picked one.

[jkrdevil]

In addition, the NHL has now been forced to realize that the big TV contracts are not coming, especially once the league resumes play, and finds out that the average American wasn't mourning the loss of something to do on Saturday night. This benefits Winnipeg, in that it reduces the influence of being a big TV market.

Yes, they have been forced to realize but they are not going to give up on a US national tv contract. Moving a team to Winnipeg would help to give up that dream. The NHL is not going to Canada anymore. I don't any Canadian is moving to the US but I don't think any US team is going north of the border. The make up of the league isn't going to change as far as the num,ber of Canadian and US based teams.

[winters in buffalo]

Providence RI

Norfolk VA

Las Vegas NV

Austin TX

Lousiville, KY

Each of  these cities is bigger than cities that already have at least 1 team:  Jacksonville(1), Buffalo(2), Salt Lake City(1), Raleigh(1) and of course, Green Bay(1).

Actually, of the cities you've listed, Jacksonville, Florida has the largest municipal population: 735,617. The breakdown by municipal population is as follows...

1) Jacksonville - 735,617

2) Austin - 656,562

3) Las Vegas - 478,434

4) Buffalo - 292,648

5) Raleigh - 276,093

6) Louisville - 256,231

7) Norfolk - 234,403

8) Salt Lake City - 181,743

9) Providence - 175,901

10) Green Bay - 102,313

Based on municipal (city) population, Providence isn't bigger than Jacksonville, Buffalo, Raleigh or Salt Lake City. Norfolk and Louisville aren't bigger than Jacksonville, Buffalo or Raleigh. Las Vegas and Austin are bigger than every city listed except Jacksonville.

Now, when considering Metropolitan Statistical Area population, things change.

The breakdown by MSA population is...

1) Norfolk - 1,569,541

2) Las Vegas - 1,563,282

3) Salt Lake City - 1,333,914

4) Austin - 1,249,763

5) Providence - 1,188,613

6) Raleigh - 1,187,941

7) Buffalo - 1,170,111

8) Jacksonville - 1,100,491

9) Louisville - 1,025,598

10) Green Bay - 226,778

Las Vegas and Austin prove to have both significant municipal and metro area populations. The Norfolk MSA jumps to the top of the list in population, but suffers from the lack of a "core" host city of significant size. Providence jumps into the "Top Five" MSAs amongst the markets you chose to compare, but its proximity to the much larger city (and MSA) of Boston dooms its chances of ever landing a major professional sports franchise. As for Louisville, the market's best argument for being a future major professional expansion site is the fact that the city's combined population with Jefferson County, since the two governmental entities merged operations, is 700,000.

Bottom line? Realistically, only Las Vegas strikes me as enjoying both the core-city and regional population bases - as well as distance from an existing major-league market - to attract serious expansion attention in the future.

Where did you get your MSA stats?

I was going by MSA, but the numbers I found were a bit different than yours, which I think a bit more reliable.

[RyanB06]

The Census Bureau has this data on-line, Google "MSA rankings" and it's like the fourth link on the page. That's where I got my data for my little poser at the top of this page.

Incidentally, City A was Des Moines, IA and City B was Bridgeport, CT.

[Brian in Boston]

Where did you get your MSA stats?

Through the United States Census Bureau.

[GeorgesL]

Here are my ideas:

MLB: Montreal needs to bring the major leagues back, although I wouldn't mind the city getting a minor-league team, Triple-A at best. But all the good markets are used up, so I don't know.

NFL: I'm tempted to say Montreal. But realistically, it's a free-for-all. I'd like to see NFL teams in Birmingham and Orlando. I like Birmingham, because it's a hotbed for football, and Legion Field is big enough to hold an NFL team. It would've been perfect for the Colts, but Indy beat them to it with a kick-@ss stadium proposal. Orlando has the Capitol One Bowl, and is perfect for a football team, however it's only major drawback is it's too close to Tampa and Jacksonville. I've been to Orlando in 2002, and I felt the electricity going on in the city.

But it's pretty obvious L.A. is a priority. Not that I'm interested in an L.A. team right now.

CFL: Two words: Quebec City!!!!

NBA: Kansas City or St. Louis. Missouri is becoming hungrier for NBA more and more, and both cities have, or will have state-of-the-art facilities. Something the Clippers can take interest in.

NHL: Quebec City. Next to Detroit, it's Canada's Hockeytown. I should know.

And basically those are my two cents.

[Schoonerville]

CFL: Two words: Quebec City!!!!

BOOOOOOO

[DEAD!]

CFL: Two words: Quebec City!!!!

BOOOOOOO

Don't you mean Schooooo..... ?

[BigMac12]

For my first post, Hi.

NBA: I want Vancouver to have another shot at the NBA. I would also like either Hartford or Baltimore so that we can go back to the 4 division format.

NHL: To impress my Canadian friends (I was born in Memphis, TN), I'll say Winnipeg and Quebec City. The NHL would restore to the 4 division format, although either Atlanta moves West or Carolina goes North.

NFL: NO MORE EXPANSION! 32 teams is it! And if they do, L.A. and Toronto are my picks.

MLB: Let's go with Vancouver and San Antoinio. San Antonio was chosen to make sure that the Cubs and the White Sox are in the same division in their respective leagues. Vancouver is my pick to restore two teams in Canada.

NLL: I would like to have Vancouver and Ottawa to get teams.

CFL: Quebec City gets a team to even out the league.

NCAA: I got a slew of institutions to balance out a lot of leagues.

AHL: I want both St. Johns to recieve a Franchise.

MLS: Seattle wants a francise. That's my pick. I also designate Detroit to recieve a team.

Those are the ones I can think of right now.

[Phil]

I don't think I've actually replied on topic yet, so here goes...

NHL: Winnipeg and Kansas City. That Sprint Centre (no, they spelled it wrong) is a mighty fine looking facility. Quebec City has had difficulty embracing minor hockey since the Nordiques left. Not that Winnipeg hasn't, but we still have the Moose, whereas the Rafales, with their stickboarding yeti, are long gone.

MLB: Vancouver seems like a interesting thought.

On the one hand, a lot of its population increase has been due to a large influx of Asian immigrants who are less likely to be tied to traditionally North American sports.

On the other hand, BC is a main hotbed for producing top notch Canadian baseball talent, and has significant baseball support at the basic level. (Also, if the Asian contingent is likely to be tied to any North American sport, baseball is a likely choice thanks in large part to its popularity in the Far East.

Lastly, Vancouver's proximity to Seattle, although not a factor in the Grizzlies decision to come to Vancouver, may discourage potential ownership.

Otherwise, I'd say Portland's a possibility.

NFL: Although I like the size of the league currently, obviously L.A. is a major TV market that the NFL would love to incorporate. Yet as Mockba always says, in LA the footballs are round. (For whatever reason, San Diego is not affected by this.)

NBA: Kansas City comes up again, but I fear with a sudden infusion of sports, one team might not fair as well. Going from 2 major leagues to 4 is a big jump that must be done gradually IMO. (Look what happened in Arizona... they're still struggling to make it work AFAIK.) It's not impossible, as Arizona has shown, but it is difficult. I think Louisville might be an interesting option. The community could really get behind the team, and responsible ownership could make it a financially lucrative market.

CFL: Halifax, no doubt. Time for Scotiabank to pony up a few million to build the stadium that announces to the rest of Canada that the maritimes are back from the economic abyss and are ready to play some ball.

ABA: I hear there's a few square miles in rural Kentucky that are yearning for some plausibly-professional basketball.

[GeorgesL]

Would you believe Montreal is getting an ABA team? Yes! Montreal is getting a basketball team sometime next season.

I have believed Montreal is a terrific football and hockey city. Still is...

...but I don't know about basketball.

[slapshot]

Wow....expansion, huh?

NFL - You should have an even amount of teams unless the league wants to reinstitute a constant bye week for some team. So Los Angeles gets one definitely. maybe New Orleans, Indy or Minnesota relocates there, don't know. But if Los Angeles is an expansion team, the other market would probably be Las Vegas or San Antonio.

MLB - Again, teams would have to come in pairs or you have open teams every weekend. Not sure about Vegas for baseball. It has a growing population count, but I don't think it would happen unless a retractable dome/air conditioned stadium like the BOB in Phoenix was built there. AAA might not be the best indicator, but baseball's popularity in Vegas seems lukewarm at best. Portland would be up on the list, maybe Vancouver or San Antonio. Probably San Antonio,

NHL - Oklahoma City definitely, Seattle or Cleveland as maybes. Winnipeg is doubtful, only because of all the financial problems that seem to be hitting the league as of late, I think the exchange rate plays a big role in it.

NBA - Represent the Midwest! Kansas City or St. Louis must have a team. Then Louisville/Cincinnati/Central Ohio area. Maybe even Buffalo and San Diego.

MLS - Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo/Rochester.

[Dilbert]

Would you believe Montreal is getting an ABA team? Yes! Montreal is getting a basketball team sometime next season.

I have believed Montreal is a terrific football and hockey city. Still is...

...but I don't know about basketball.

Yeah, Basketball in Montreal just doesnt seem right. Calgary just lost their ABA team the Drillers after starting the season late, and playing only 13 games.

[Cashcleaner]

D'oh!

I totally forgot about Major League Soccer.

I'd say MLS could do with two new Canadian teams, one in Toronto (Toronto City FC, perhaps?) and the other in either Vancouver or Montreal. Vancouver I could see for it's yuppy culture that seems to embrace all things avant-garde (soccer being one such concept in North America at times) and Montreal as a more traditional sports stomping ground. The French are natural soccer players in Europe, so maybe it would be a bit of a thing for the Quebeckers as well?

PQFC, anyone?

[GeorgesL]

D'oh!

I totally forgot about Major League Soccer.

I'd say MLS could do with two new Canadian teams, one in Toronto (Toronto City FC, perhaps?) and the other in either Vancouver or Montreal. Vancouver I could see for it's yuppy culture that seems to embrace all things avant-garde (soccer being one such concept in North America at times) and Montreal as a more traditional sports stomping ground. The French are natural soccer players in Europe, so maybe it would be a bit of a thing for the Quebeckers as well?

PQFC, anyone?

I'm on board!

[GeorgesL]

Would you believe Montreal is getting an ABA team? Yes! Montreal is getting a basketball team sometime next season.

I have believed Montreal is a terrific football and hockey city. Still is...

...but I don't know about basketball.

Yeah, Basketball in Montreal just doesnt seem right. Calgary just lost their ABA team the Drillers after starting the season late, and playing only 13 games.

Canada and basketball just doesn't gel for some reason. The irony is that a Canadian actually was the inventor of basketball.

[Stampman]

Would you believe Montreal is getting an ABA team? Yes! Montreal is getting a basketball team sometime next season.

I have believed Montreal is a terrific football and hockey city. Still is...

...but I don't know about basketball.

Yeah, Basketball in Montreal just doesnt seem right. Calgary just lost their ABA team the Drillers after starting the season late, and playing only 13 games.

Canada and basketball just doesn't gel for some reason. The irony is that a Canadian actually was the inventor of basketball.

The Calgary 88's did well, but their league folded...