2010-11 NBA Season

[TrueYankee26]

At least wait until the playoffs, because you truly cannot simplify everything this easily and this early on. I, for one, would be perfectly happy giving Dwyane Wade the ball when time's running out and getting the hell out of the way. The Heat aren't stupid or bad and I promise you they will not just go down with a whimper at the end of every close game.

Agreed with the bolded part.. Despite the fact that I said that LeBron & Bosh's un-clutchness have been rubbing off on him, he is still one of the best in the world when it comes to late situations. If anything, I'm shocked that he hasn't been getting the ball MORE in that situation, and that's where I get to the point where the Heat are dumb. If they're letting Bosh & LeBron take 3s in attempts to win games instead of guys who can actually hit that shot with some sort of regularity, then what the hell is going on?

Also, unless the Heat run the table from this point on, last year's Cavs will have a better record.

WOW, even with 2 superstars around him they will be as good as last year's Cleveland LeBron and a whole bunch of sheep

[srj34]

It really doesn't matter that much whether you're the 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed in the end.

Yes it does.

[gingerbreadmann]

It really doesn't matter that much whether you're the 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed in the end.

Yes it does.

Not if you have the talent to be #1. What, home court matters that much? Unless you're the Nuggets, you should be able to win on the road in the 2nd or 3rd round. Especially a team like the Heat.

[srj34]

Well, just look at the history of the NBA, then decide whether or not these things matter;

- There have been 64 NBA champions prior to this season. In those 64 seasons, the team with the best record won the championship 31 times. The team with the second-best record won it 19 times. The team with the third-best record won it six times. All records lower than third place have won the championship eight times. Suffice it to say that if you don't have one of the top two records in basketball, it's a hard road.

- In the NBA Finals, the team with HCA has won 47 series and lost 17.

- In sixteen NBA Finals game sevens, the team with HCA is 13-3.

[TFoA]

Atlanta continuing to bolster its reputation as a safe haven for the road team. Sounds like MSG in Philips Arena right now. Not even a surprise.

[srj34]

Atlanta continuing to bolster its reputation as a safe haven for the road team. Sounds like MSG in Philips Arena right now.

If I was an NBA owner, I'd be one of those crazy Mark Cuban/Dan Gilbert types. I would absolutely prohibit opposing fan support in my building. Nothing makes my team look worse than seeing opposing fan bases waltz into our house and making all sorts of racket for the other team. I don't care what sort of revenue hit or league sanctions I would suffer. If you're rocking the other colors, you're doing it outside.

[tBBP]

But what if those other colors are the same as yours?

[The_Admiral]

It really doesn't matter that much whether you're the 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed in the end.

Yes it does.

Not if you have the talent to be #1. What, home court matters that much? Unless you're the Nuggets, you should be able to win on the road in the 2nd or 3rd round. Especially a team like the Heat.

Other way around. It's not that you can't go far if you're not seeded high. It's that if you're not a 1-3 seed, you're not good enough to win an NBA championship. NBA regular seasons are more telling than people give them credit for.

[Jigga]

Atlanta continuing to bolster its reputation as a safe haven for the road team. Sounds like MSG in Philips Arena right now.

If I was an NBA owner, I'd be one of those crazy Mark Cuban/Dan Gilbert types. I would absolutely prohibit opposing fan support in my building. Nothing makes my team look worse than seeing opposing fan bases waltz into our house and making all sorts of racket for the other team. I don't care what sort of revenue hit or league sanctions I would suffer. If you're rocking the other colors, you're doing it outside.

I guess you wouldn't be an owner for long then.

[gingerbreadmann]

Well, just look at the history of the NBA, then decide whether or not these things matter;

- There have been 64 NBA champions prior to this season. In those 64 seasons, the team with the best record won the championship 31 times. The team with the second-best record won it 19 times. The team with the third-best record won it six times. All records lower than third place have won the championship eight times. Suffice it to say that if you don't have one of the top two records in basketball, it's a hard road.

- In the NBA Finals, the team with HCA has won 47 series and lost 17.

- In sixteen NBA Finals game sevens, the team with HCA is 13-3.

It's not as black and white as you're making it out to be, though. Home court isn't unimportant, but those facts you give aren't all because of home court. Naturally, in general, the best team will have the best record; the second-best will have the second-best record, etc., and those teams are obviously more likely to win even if the playoffs were on a neutral court. It's almost like saying, "In the NBA Finals, the better team has won 47 series and lost 17," which makes perfect sense. So you're ignoring some of the causation.

I would argue that if a team like the Heat, which I think people can agree is at least one of the top three most talented teams in league (including three superstars in a star-oriented league), is maybe the 3 seed, then not having home court for the Conference Semis onward is less of a roadblock. I think that for them, it's not the end of the world if they aren't the 1 seed because they easily could have been (say, had some of these "unclutch" shots fallen) and in the playoffs, it's such a tiny series that anything can happen and they're potentially good enough that if they play well, their talent can/will make up for any home court disadvantage.

It really doesn't matter that much whether you're the 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed in the end.

Yes it does.

Not if you have the talent to be #1. What, home court matters that much? Unless you're the Nuggets, you should be able to win on the road in the 2nd or 3rd round. Especially a team like the Heat.

Other way around. It's not that you can't go far if you're not seeded high. It's that if you're not a 1-3 seed, you're not good enough to win an NBA championship. NBA regular seasons are more telling than people give them credit for.

I don't think that's fully contrary to what I said. Well, I guess since I said a 4 seed could be okay. Yes, a team whose ceiling is the 4 seed will not be good enough to fluke-win 4 series and win the title. But someone like the Heat, whose ceiling is unquestionably the 1 seed, won't be hurt so much by being a 3 seed that they can no longer win. And I'm not suggesting that they tank; you certainly don't want to be lower than 4. But that's easily avoidable even if their focus isn't on winning every single game.

Take the Celtics last year: their priority was making sure everyone was healthy and energized for the playoffs rather than going all-out to be the #1 seed. They ended up as #4 and dominated the playoffs until the Finals, where they arguably could have won without a big injury in Game 6 and still had to blow a huge 3rd-quarter lead in Game 7 to lose. They were absolutely good enough to win an NBA championship, and they didn't need to be a 1, 2, or even 3 seed to know it themselves or prove it to anyone else.

The regular season is telling in that you can effectively weed out the contenders from the try-again-next-years. But truthfully, isn't that something you can pretty much tell coming out of the preseason?

[infrared41]

Let's all calm down with the "I knew the Heat would suck" and "They need a new coach/mediocre clutch player" chants. We are all reading into waaaaaaay too little data to jump to these conclusions. At least wait until the playoffs, because you truly cannot simplify everything this easily and this early on. I, for one, would be perfectly happy giving Dwyane Wade the ball when time's running out and getting the hell out of the way. The Heat aren't stupid or bad and I promise you they will not just go down with a whimper at the end of every close game.

Slow down chief. The bulk of the conversation has been about the Heat's clear lack of depth. In my case, I'm not saying they need another "clutch player." (although a Horry/Fisher caliber player sure wouldn't hurt) They need more depth. There's a difference. I think we'd all agree that the drop off in talent from the big three for the Heat is much steeper than it is for a team like the Celtics. If you think that isn't going to play a role in the playoffs then you're crazy (but we already knew that).

The Heat are going to win some games in the playoffs. There's no doubt about that. They are not going to make a serious run at the title this season; a point on which most everyone agreed at the beginning of the season. The conventional wisdom after LeBron signed was that the Heat were a year, maybe two, from making a serious run. If anything, the Heat are actually better than I expected them to be.

[gingerbreadmann]

Let's all calm down with the "I knew the Heat would suck" and "They need a new coach/mediocre clutch player" chants. We are all reading into waaaaaaay too little data to jump to these conclusions. At least wait until the playoffs, because you truly cannot simplify everything this easily and this early on. I, for one, would be perfectly happy giving Dwyane Wade the ball when time's running out and getting the hell out of the way. The Heat aren't stupid or bad and I promise you they will not just go down with a whimper at the end of every close game.

Slow down chief. The bulk of the conversation has been about the Heat's clear lack of depth. In my case, I'm not saying they need another "clutch player." (although a Horry/Fisher caliber player sure wouldn't hurt) They need more depth. There's a difference. I think we'd all agree that the drop off in talent from the big three for the Heat is much steeper than it is for a team like the Celtics. If you think that isn't going to play a role in the playoffs then you're crazy (but we already knew that).

The Heat are going to win some games in the playoffs. There's no doubt about that. They are not going to make a serious run at the title this season; a point on which most everyone agreed at the beginning of the season. The conventional wisdom after LeBron signed was that the Heat were a year, maybe two, from making a serious run. If anything, the Heat are actually better than I expected them to be.

I don't think it's all that different from the 2008 Celtics. Rondo and Perk weren't great that year and Posey was the only reliable bench player, save House on 3-pointers. I agree that the Heat haven't developed as a team enough to win a title, especially on defense, but I don't think their current clutch issues are the reason at all (and while depth is part of it, it's not a killer by itself). And while I agree that they will not win it all, I think we should be careful in counting them out so soon. It would not surprise me to see them make the Finals.

I would love to be wrong, and I will gladly admit that I was wrong if they get swept by the Bulls in the second round. But, depth issues and whatnot, it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that they're just going to bow out because of a few bad regular season losses (which it sounds like you're not doing, but still).

[HedleyLamarr]

Atlanta continuing to bolster its reputation as a safe haven for the road team. Sounds like MSG in Philips Arena right now. Not even a surprise.

Just wait until Tuesday....

[The_Admiral]

it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that they're just going to bow out because of a few bad regular season losses (which it sounds like you're not doing, but still).

That's not how anyone is framing the argument, though. The argument is that a closer inspection of the Heat's record shows that they've gotten fat on the East's smorgasbord of awful teams while struggling with, if not reliably losing to, legitimate contenders. They look dazzling against the kinds of teams they won't see in the playoffs unless they finish in first and draw the Pacers, but then what?

Miami's last ten losses, taking us back to January 13th:

Chicago, San Antonio, Orlando, New York avec Carmelo, Chicago, Boston, New York sans Carmelo, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver

Miami's last ten wins, taking us back to January 31st:

Washington, Sacramento, Toronto, Indiana, Detroit, Indiana, LA Clippers, Charlotte, Orlando, Cleveland

Other than the Magic, good lord. Those are two separate leagues.

[gingerbreadmann]

it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that they're just going to bow out because of a few bad regular season losses (which it sounds like you're not doing, but still).

That's not how anyone is framing the argument, though. The argument is that a closer inspection of the Heat's record shows that they've gotten fat on the East's smorgasbord of awful teams while struggling with, if not reliably losing to, legitimate contenders. They look dazzling against the kinds of teams they won't see in the playoffs unless they finish in first and draw the Pacers, but then what?

Miami's last ten losses, taking us back to January 13th:

Chicago, San Antonio, Orlando, New York avec Carmelo, Chicago, Boston, New York sans Carmelo, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver

Miami's last ten wins, taking us back to January 31st:

Washington, Sacramento, Toronto, Indiana, Detroit, Indiana, LA Clippers, Charlotte, Orlando, Cleveland

Other than the Magic, good lord. Those are two separate leagues.

I'm pretty sure there are a couple different discussions I'm having: one arguing that the regular season isn't all that important in general, and another that the Heat shouldn't be counted out (and if you are saying that no one is counting them out, I disagree). You first responded to me about the former and this is about the latter.

You present some convincing evidence, and I was wrong in saying that this sentiment has just recently arisen due to the end-of-game problems. If you're simply arguing that they've gotten fat on bad teams and are doing poorly against good ones, then I cannot disagree -- those two lists speak for themselves. Yet until they choke like this in the playoffs and lay down for a good team, I stand by what I have been saying, which is that this doesn't necessarily mean they will choke and lay down for a good team in the playoffs.

[srj34]

So you're ignoring some of the causation.

I'm not ignoring anything. I'm simply putting forth information which counters your assertion, which was that seeding doesn't matter much.

For the record, I agree with you in the specific case of Miami - Miami is not as bad as they've been this week, and even now they could still win the East. But with just about 20 games left, it seems that they haven't worked out some very basic issues which have nothing to do with talent. They're still trying to figure out how to fit everything together, and it didn't help matters that Haslem's out, Mike Miller has a huge chunk of the year, and that they are still tweaking the roster of all things. And if they don't work it out really, really fast, they will be a quick out.

This is the big drawback to trying to buy a championship in basketball. Miami is trying to start over and contend on the fly; meanwhile, the Celtics, the Bulls, the Spurs, the Lakers, the Mavericks, and the Thunder have had their foundations in place for some time. I have no doubt that Miami will be much better next year, but the bulk of this year has been everyone trying to figure out their roles.

[Saintsfan]

Problem is, the stars of the team aren't always going to be the ones who are called upon in crunch time. The Heat lack a guy like Robert Horry or Derek Fisher who can turn it on in the fourth quarter, and they can't afford someone like that.

Exactly. You can't coach "we need someone other than Wade or LeBron to go to." Everyone in the building knows that the Heat have limited option come crunch time. It's basically five on three at that point so it's pretty easy to set up a defense. If they had an Horry/Fisher type to go to it changes the whole dynamic in a close game. As it stands right now, every team knows the Heat aren't going to a Mike Bibby or a Mario Chalmers in crunch time so it's like having two extra defenders on the floor. If Saintsfan has a coaching solution for that problem, I'd love to hear it.

Well first off, occasionally you do go to Bibby or Chalmers. One of the worst aspects of the Heat right now is that they don't seem to trust really anyone save the big 3. They are all NBA players, and they should all be able to hit an open shot. Secondly, from what I've seen, the whole team kind of goes into a panic in close games. I'm pretty convinced some of that is having a puppy of a coach on the sidelines.

One other thing, noone talks about the Heat's defense in clutch situations. Perhaps this is the biggest issue really?

[CS85]

If the Heat don't win the title this year, I am very interested to see the responses on this board as well as around the horn of NBA fandom.

Based on the quotes from the Heat players and reaction to their struggling in the clutch, this all comes off in two ways: 1) the Heat roster feels like they're entitled to a championship and the realization that the "sign 3 all-stars and fill the rest of the roster with crap" strategy is crumbling around them against teams worth a damn, and 2) fair-weather fans are slowly starting to inch their way off the Heat's bandwagon by announcing their doubts to others/themselves as to justify their fan-statuses if/when the season ends without a title.

I think this Heat team is definitely worth a more thorough breakdown after this season if they don't win a title. Obviously, the onus of the blame would be on the roster outside of the big-3, but I'd be very interested in seeing just how the South Beach 3 statistically did vs. teams above and below .500, etc. Hopefully if indeed the Heat maintain that status quo of being wimpy against legit squads it will deter teams from wanting to harvest "Big 3's" of their own and just try to build teams the traditional way.

[Hoopskid]

I wouldn't call the rest of the Heat roster "crap".

Mike Miller, James Jones, Mike Bibby, Eddie House, are all the type of players that are found on championship teams. They don't demand the ball a lot, but when they get it they score. I think their play is crucial for this team.

Erik Dampier was a starting center in Dallas for a long time, and big Z has great range for a center. I think the problem with the Heat is that they're too focused on their superstars. If they attempted to play more team ball and not worry about having to score with the big 3 they would be better IMO. Honestly, with the Heat's roster I don't see any problem with them scoring, yet it often seems to be the case, especially when they really need the last second bucket.

[Jigga]

At least wait until the playoffs, because you truly cannot simplify everything this easily and this early on. I, for one, would be perfectly happy giving Dwyane Wade the ball when time's running out and getting the hell out of the way. The Heat aren't stupid or bad and I promise you they will not just go down with a whimper at the end of every close game.

Agreed with the bolded part.. Despite the fact that I said that LeBron & Bosh's un-clutchness have been rubbing off on him, he is still one of the best in the world when it comes to late situations. If anything, I'm shocked that he hasn't been getting the ball MORE in that situation, and that's where I get to the point where the Heat are dumb. If they're letting Bosh & LeBron take 3s in attempts to win games instead of guys who can actually hit that shot with some sort of regularity, then what the hell is going on?

Also, unless the Heat run the table from this point on, last year's Cavs will have a better record.

WOW, even with 2 superstars around him they will be as good as last year's Cleveland LeBron and a whole bunch of sheep

People need to stop saying that. There aren't 2 other superstars with LeBron. There is LeBron and D-Wade. Bosh is not a superstar, never was a superstar, and never will be a superstar.