Ridleylash Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockstar Matt Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I've long been curious about point differential and if regular season point differential correlates into post season success. I've found something that quite honestly shocked me after doing some research. (As a side note, I'll refer to point differential as PD from here on to save redundancy and my sanity). Every single Super Bowl participant since 2003* except for eight teams were in the top 3 in their conference in PD. They were the 2003 Panthers and Patriots, 2006 Colts, 2007 Giants, 2009 Colts, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens and 2015 Broncos. As you can see 5 of those teams were in the years 2003-2009, whereas since 2010 only 3 of the last 22 Super Bowl participants were outside of the top 3. I have no definitive evidence of why that is, but I can only speculate it's because of how much the game has changed in terms of offensive domination since then. Furthermore, since the 2012 Super Bowl, only twice has a Super Bowl not feature at least one team who was first in PD in their conference (last year's Super Bowl, and the 2018 Super Bowl between New England and LA). Since 2009, aside from 2018 and 2020 Super Bowls, every single Super Bowl had at least one team who was number 1 in points differential in their conference. I didn't honestly believe there was any correlation into PD and postseason success, but there is substantial data to support that hypothesis. Remember the wild-card, 10-6 Green Bay Packers who won the 2010 Super Bowl? They were number 1 in PD in the NFC that season. 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019 Super Bowls all had at least one team who topped their conference in PD (the bolded Super Bowls had both teams finish first in PD in their conferences).. Now how does that relate to this season? We'll have the full data set after today's games, but I can make some early statements. Firstly, the Packers (and the Titans if they clinch home-field in the AFC) will have the worst PD of any number one seed since the 2015 Broncos (who had a terrible offense led by the corpse of Peyton Manning who was being carried by one of the greatest defenses in the last 30 years). Green Bay already is the first one seed in the NFC in the last decade to not finish at least 2nd in PD. If they don't pass Arizona and LA in PD, they'll be only the third #1 seed in either conference to not be in the top 3 in their conference in that same span previously mentioned. Tennessee would easily have the worst PD of any 1 seed in the AFC since those Broncos, and any 1 seed in either conference in the last decade. Secondly, since 2010 the only teams who made it to the Super Bowl despite not having an elite PD either got a hot QB at the right time (2011 NYG, 2012 BAL) or an historically great unit (2015 DEN), it'll be a safe prediction to assume both participants will be one of the top 3 teams in their respective conferences in PD. *-I picked 2003 only because that's as far back as ESPN's standing records go. I could use pro-football-reference to go further, but that would involve more work on my part 4 1 Quote Cowboys - Lakers - LAFC - USMNT - LA Rams - LA Kings - NUFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Comet Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 So judging by that, you think that the teams most likely to represent the AFC as of right now are Buffalo, New England and Kansas City while the NFC it would be Dallas, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles/Arizona. Seems interesting. How much of Tennessee’s deficits in point differential are due to how hurt that teams has been? Considering all that, I think Mike Vrabel should be the unanimous Coach of the Year. I don’t see them winning a playoff game, but I am impressed that they’ve gotten as far as they have. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDAWG Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDAWG Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 35 minutes ago, GDAWG said: <br /> Coach Fangio seems like a real good dude, but just wasn't the right guy in Denver. Three years was enough time, but still could not right the ship. From all signs, he's still among elite DCs in the league and will easily land on his feet elsewhere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDAWG Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Cujo said: Coach Fangio seems like a real good dude, but just wasn't the right guy in Denver. Three years was enough time, but still could not right the ship. From all signs, he's still among elite DCs in the league and will easily land on his feet elsewhere. Fangio doesn't plan on retiring from coaching I would assume? It didn't help when he's coaching a team in a division with two elite level QB's (Mahomes and Herbert) and a good one (Carr). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DG_ThenNowForever Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 LOL. 3 Quote 1 hour ago, ShutUpLutz! said: and the drunken doodoobags jumping off the tops of SUV's/vans/RV's onto tables because, oh yeah, they are drunken drug abusing doodoobags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, DG_ThenNowForever said: LOL. And Joe Judge is being retained?? Wowowow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Who would make more noise in the playoffs—Ravens or Steelers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I didn't think the Patriots would end up in the playoffs this season, so it'll be interesting to see where they end up playing. Buffalo. Cincinnati. Should be fun! Quote On 4/10/2017 at 3:05 PM, Rollins Man said: what the hell is ccslc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rams80 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Game 256 272 being a full on Disgrace of Gijon scenario would be my everything, it needs to happen. Quote On 8/1/2010 at 4:01 PM, winters in buffalo said: You manage to balance agitation with just enough salient points to keep things interesting. Kind of a low-rent DG_Now. On 1/2/2011 at 9:07 PM, Sodboy13 said: Today, we are all otaku. "The city of Peoria was once the site of the largest distillery in the world and later became the site for mass production of penicillin. So it is safe to assume that present-day Peorians are descended from syphilitic boozehounds."-Stephen Colbert POTD: February 15, 2010, June 20, 2010 The Glorious Bloom State Penguins (NCFAF) 2014: 2-9, 2015: 7-5 (L Pineapple Bowl), 2016: 1-0 (NCFAB) 2014-15: 10-8, 2015-16: 14-5 (SMC Champs, L 1st Round February Frenzy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rams80 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, GDAWG said: I'm sorry Pat Shurmur is WHAT?! Dude's an idiot and it is mindblowing he can still find work in the NFL. Quote On 8/1/2010 at 4:01 PM, winters in buffalo said: You manage to balance agitation with just enough salient points to keep things interesting. Kind of a low-rent DG_Now. On 1/2/2011 at 9:07 PM, Sodboy13 said: Today, we are all otaku. "The city of Peoria was once the site of the largest distillery in the world and later became the site for mass production of penicillin. So it is safe to assume that present-day Peorians are descended from syphilitic boozehounds."-Stephen Colbert POTD: February 15, 2010, June 20, 2010 The Glorious Bloom State Penguins (NCFAF) 2014: 2-9, 2015: 7-5 (L Pineapple Bowl), 2016: 1-0 (NCFAB) 2014-15: 10-8, 2015-16: 14-5 (SMC Champs, L 1st Round February Frenzy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDAWG Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, DG_ThenNowForever said: LOL. Joe Judge goes on a ten minute post game rant as to why he thought that play would work. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Comet Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The Indianapolis Colts are going to choke in front of the worst team in the NFL and a bunch of fans dressed like clowns. I’d feel bad for them if they didn’t leave Baltimore on the Mayflower trucks and ended so many Chiefs seasons when I was growing up. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, rams80 said: I'm sorry Pat Shurmur is WHAT?! Dude's an idiot and it is mindblowing he can still find work in the NFL. He's probably coached his last game in the NFL. Wild how he even got TWO shots to head coach in the league Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDAWG Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Makes me wonder: if Seattle and Pete Carroll part ways, would Shad Khan fire Trent Baalke in order to get Pete Carroll? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DG_ThenNowForever Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 How in the world did Indy choke today away? They looked like the best team in the AFC like three weeks ago. Can't tell yet if week 18 was a good or bad idea. 1 Quote 1 hour ago, ShutUpLutz! said: and the drunken doodoobags jumping off the tops of SUV's/vans/RV's onto tables because, oh yeah, they are drunken drug abusing doodoobags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBTV Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, DG_ThenNowForever said: How in the world did Indy choke today away? 6 Quote "The views expressed here are mine and do not reflect the official opinion of my employer or the organization through which the Internet was accessed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cujo Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Raise it! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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