2008 MLB Season

[footballfiji]

Ken Griffey Jr. finally hit career bomb #600th off of some scrub in Florida.

It was nice to see all 5,000 in attendance give him a standing ovation.

Mark Hendrickson is hardly a scrub. He is 7-2 (will probably be 7-3 by the end of the night) and has been one the more pleasant surprises for Florida. Although, lately he's been a little bit more inconsistent and has been killed by the HR.

I would like to know how anyone can be considered a pleasant surprise when they've got an ERA of 5.76.

1. It's an Ex-NBA Player

2. He's got 7 Wins

I'm surprised. Pleasantly.

I hate to be a party pooper, but wins don't mean .

And he's a Devil Ray reject.

Last time I checked, the point of a game is to win. Yeah the other pitching stats are important, but if you can win that is what is most important.

It also comes down to run support. Wins are important, no doubt, but if you're 12-5 with an ERA of 6.15 and get about 7-8 runs from your lineup each game, are you really that good?

You can be. At the end of the day I will take a winner over someone who can get the team close to winning.

No, you can't be. You're telling me you'd take a guy who's 12-5 with a 6.15 ERA over a guy like Felix Hernandez who's on pace to finish below .500 with 3.07 ERA? That's just crazy. A pitcher has no control over what their offense or bullpen does, so has little control over winning or losing.

I agree. I'm not saying Hendrickson is an ace by any means. I'm just saying that for the Marlins he has been good. He's filled a role for them.

Some pitchers are more lucky than good. Hendrickson is definitely one of those guys. He's benefited from good run support but then again so has Cliff Lee.

Some pitchers are just unlucky. Take Jeremy Guthrie for example. He's 3-6 with a 3+ ERA and gets ZERO run support when he pitches.

Look at some of his L's and NDs:

GAME: GUTHRIE'S LINE

4/11 @TB (L 10-5) GUTHRIE'S LINE (6.1 IP 2 ER 4K ND) The Orioles had a 5-2 lead going into the bottom of the 7th

5/11 WAS (L 2-1) (7 IP 1 ER L)

5/23 @TB (L 2-) (6.2 IP 1 ER 5K L)

In the end, Hendrickson will probably be a scrub. He'll forever be the guy who gave up Griffey's 600 now and after that hot April he's dropping like blue ice from an airplane.

[Epiphanic]

I feel that winning is the most important pitching stat because winning is the purpose of the game. No, a pitcher does not have control over what their offense or bullpen does, but I would still rather have a pitcher who wins with a high ERA than a pitcher with a losing record and a low ERA. Yes, I would love to have someone with a low ERA (and usually if you have a low ERA you will have a good record), but wins are wins.

You can't be better in terms of ERA if you give up a lot of runs, but you can be better in the win column which is what is most important at the end of the day. ERA is important, but I feel that winning is more important.

Given the amount of information in the internet, there's this thought in the back of my mind that this is satire. I truly hope it is. If it isn't, may the baseball gods have mercy on your soul.

[Eye]

I feel that winning is the most important pitching stat because winning is the purpose of the game. No, a pitcher does not have control over what their offense or bullpen does, but I would still rather have a pitcher who wins with a high ERA than a pitcher with a losing record and a low ERA. Yes, I would love to have someone with a low ERA (and usually if you have a low ERA you will have a good record), but wins are wins.

You can't be better in terms of ERA if you give up a lot of runs, but you can be better in the win column which is what is most important at the end of the day. ERA is important, but I feel that winning is more important.

Given the amount of information in the internet, there's this thought in the back of my mind that this is satire. I truly hope it is. If it isn't, may the baseball gods have mercy on your soul.

Nah, real stuff man. I guess we differ in opinions on this but that is just fine. I just feel that winning is more important than ERA.

[Epiphanic]

Obviously winning should be the goal, but wins as a pitching stat doesn't tell you much. If you were given the choice of two pitchers, one with an ERA of 3.00 and the other with an ERA of 6.00, which would you expect to give your team the best chance to win the game? Obviously the answer is the guy with the 3.00 ERA, right? Now if you later learned that the 6.00 ERA pitcher was a 15-game winner because his team 8 runs/game and the 3.00 ERA pitcher only managed 5 wins because his team averaged 2 runs/game you'd take the 6.00 guy?

[Eye]

Obviously winning should be the goal, but wins as a pitching stat doesn't tell you much. If you were given the choice of two pitchers, one with an ERA of 3.00 and the other with an ERA of 6.00, which would you expect to give your team the best chance to win the game? Obviously the answer is the guy with the 3.00 ERA, right? Now if you later learned that the 6.00 ERA pitcher was a 15-game winner because his team 8 runs/game and the 3.00 ERA pitcher only managed 5 wins because his team averaged 2 runs/game you'd take the 6.00 guy?

Absolutely the guy with an ERA of 3.00 would give his team a better chance to win. I would rather have a winner, but the disparity in wins and ERA is something that I would take into account though. If the disparity between ERA is not HUGE, I would rather have a winner, but there is a line that has to be drawn. I would take a guy with a lower ERA than another guy's if it is substantially lower, but I'd gladly take a winner if he can get me more wins and has a reasonable ERA.

[Brass]

Obviously winning should be the goal, but wins as a pitching stat doesn't tell you much. If you were given the choice of two pitchers, one with an ERA of 3.00 and the other with an ERA of 6.00, which would you expect to give your team the best chance to win the game? Obviously the answer is the guy with the 3.00 ERA, right? Now if you later learned that the 6.00 ERA pitcher was a 15-game winner because his team 8 runs/game and the 3.00 ERA pitcher only managed 5 wins because his team averaged 2 runs/game you'd take the 6.00 guy?

Absolutely the guy with an ERA of 3.00 would give his team a better chance to win. I would rather have a winner, but the disparity in wins and ERA is something that I would take into account though. If the disparity between ERA is not HUGE, I would rather have a winner, but there is a line that has to be drawn. I would take a guy with a lower ERA than another guy's if it is substantially lower, but I'd gladly take a winner if he can get me more wins and has a reasonable ERA.

So what you're saying is that in 2007, Jamie Moyer with 14 wins an a 5.01 ERA had a better season that Chris Young who had 9 wins and a 3.12 ERA?

[Island_Style]

I'm a Marlins fan but it doesn't matter the record, 5.76 ERA is crappy. That doesn't equal good pitching. His record is so good because of the bats, not his pitching.

[See Red]

Neither ERA nor wins are telling stats. Obviously a pitcher with a great defense (not so much in terms of errors as in terms of range) behind him is going to get more balls that are put into play converted into outs than one with a terrible defense behind him and that's going to affect an ERA -- more base runners theoretically leads to more runs scored. I've mentioned it a few times in this thread and at other times on this forum, but so far, the most telling stat I've seen is FIP -- Fielder Independent Pitching. It measures everything a pitcher is specifically responsible for -- walks, strikeouts, HR's, while taking out the luck factors, which can result from a number of things, like BABIP -- Batting Average on Balls in Play.

That said, I mentioned Hendrickson was a 4.00 FIP, but I was actually wrong and looked at last years... this years is a 4.76... which isn't particularly good, but still suggests he's been a run per game better than his ERA suggests.

For what it's worth, Scott Olsen for Florida has been extremely lucky this year. Watch for him to come down to earth... hard.

[footballfiji]

Neither ERA nor wins are telling stats. Obviously a pitcher with a great defense (not so much in terms of errors as in terms of range) behind him is going to get more balls that are put into play converted into outs than one with a terrible defense behind him and that's going to affect an ERA -- more base runners theoretically leads to more runs scored. I've mentioned it a few times in this thread and at other times on this forum, but so far, the most telling stat I've seen is FIP -- Fielder Independent Pitching. It measures everything a pitcher is specifically responsible for -- walks, strikeouts, HR's, while taking out the luck factors, which can result from a number of things, like BABIP -- Batting Average on Balls in Play.

That said, I mentioned Hendrickson was a 4.00 FIP, but I was actually wrong and looked at last years... this years is a 4.76... which isn't particularly good, but still suggests he's been a run per game better than his ERA suggests.

For what it's worth, Scott Olsen for Florida has been extremely lucky this year. Watch for him to come down to earth... hard.

I think most of the Marlins will be coming down to earth soon.

[Cujo]

Mark Hendrickson is hardly a scrub.

In the end, Hendrickson will probably be a scrub.

Well look who finally came around...

I hate to break it to you, but anyone in a Florida uniform who's name is not Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla, is a scrub.

[footballfiji]

Mark Hendrickson is hardly a scrub.

In the end, Hendrickson will probably be a scrub.

Well look who finally came around...

I hate to break it to you, but anyone in a Florida uniform who's name is not Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla, is a scrub.

What can I say? Arguments were made and the correct one won out. I was probably just blindsided by the fact that I had him on my fantasy team for a while and he helped me out. That and if you've ever seen him bat you'd be amazed. It's comical seeing someone that tall in the batter's box.

[Cujo]

Mark Hendrickson is hardly a scrub.

In the end, Hendrickson will probably be a scrub.

Well look who finally came around...

I hate to break it to you, but anyone in a Florida uniform who's name is not Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla, is a scrub.

What can I say? Arguments were made and the correct one won out. I was probably just blindsided by the fact that I had him on my fantasy team for a while and he helped me out. That and if you've ever seen him bat you'd be amazed. It's comical seeing someone that tall in the batter's box.

Ahhh, he's a member of your fantasy team. That would explain a lot because that actually happeens to me as well.

Sometimes it'll take me a month or so before realize a player has been playing like absolute . Of course I dump him once I find out, but at times it takes an episode of Baseball Tonight or a comment from a friend before I even become aware of how terrible they actually are. (Brad Penny & Justin Upton)

------------------------

This just in: Speaking of mega scrubs, Dontrelle Willis has been demoted to Single-A Lakeland after giving up 8 runs in 1.1 innings against Cleveland last night.

Ouch.

[gingerbreadmann]

In sports, aren't wins the only thing that matter? I'm confused.

I seriously doubt you're confused, in fact I think you're trying to point out something you believe everyone feels is obvious to make me look bad, that just isn't true. Unless you actually know little to nothing about what a "win" is in pitching.

I see I've missed the discussion here, but others have proved my point. A week or so ago, Tim Wakefield pitch 8 innings, giving up 5 hits and 1 run, but "earned" the loss cause the Sox scored a total of 0 runs. Compare that to someone who pitches 6 innings and gives up six runs, but wins because his team is facing Eric Gagne (hypothetically) and scored 12 runs. The second guy (assuming this happens throughout the year) is definitely a much better pitcher than Wake, right?

The only fair way to compare one pitcher to another is through stats that only the pitcher himself affects. Obviously ERA is much better for this than W-L, but it is too far from perfect, as ITE88 has eloquently pointed out using sabermetrics, which are great in themselves. Obviously there is no perfect method for this because of numerous variables that cannot be completely controlled across MLB, and little things such as a particular ump's strike zone can affect this. However, some of the more simple stats that I think are telling are ERA (still better than most), WHIP, and K/BB. However, another dependent variable that varies everywhere including InTheEnd's stats is each park is different. It is possible to neutralize things a lot using park factor, and others, such as on Baseball-Reference, but still nothing is perfect. Some sabermetric stats that I like are ERA+ and ERC (component ERA, similar if I'm not mistaken to FIC).

I suggest anyone interested in this topic consistently read The Hardball Times.

[WJMorris3]

This just in: Speaking of mega scrubs, Dontrelle Willis has been demoted to Single-A Lakeland after giving up 8 runs in 1.1 innings against Cleveland last night.

Ouch.

Just proof that pitching well in Detroit is still optional.

If you don't pitch well, you get optioned.

I wonder if anyone is going to claim him, if only to force him to stay in Detroit?

[DG_YouKnowWhatThatMeans]

In sports, aren't wins the only thing that matter? I'm confused.

I seriously doubt you're confused, in fact I think you're trying to point out something you believe everyone feels is obvious to make me look bad, that just isn't true. Unless you actually know little to nothing about what a "win" is in pitching.

I see I've missed the discussion here, but others have proved my point.

[whole bunch of additional (and apparently unnecessary) point-proving deleted].

Nope; wasn't confused. I really thought that, in contrast to your initial post, wins actually do "mean ." I see now that you were talking about a different kind of win, and we just crossed definitions. It happens.

[gingerbreadmann]

In sports, aren't wins the only thing that matter? I'm confused.

I seriously doubt you're confused, in fact I think you're trying to point out something you believe everyone feels is obvious to make me look bad, that just isn't true. Unless you actually know little to nothing about what a "win" is in pitching.

I see I've missed the discussion here, but others have proved my point.

[whole bunch of additional (and apparently unnecessary) point-proving deleted].

I suggest anyone interested in this topic consistently read The Hardball Times.

Nope; wasn't confused. I really thought that, in contrast to your initial post, wins actually do "mean ." I see now that you were talking about a different kind of win, and we just crossed definitions. It happens.

OK, just checking. Obviously team wins mean a lot of , but I see we're on the same page now though.

[Drew22]

The Braves make me sad.

[NJTank]

Try being a Mets fan, Im going to Saturday's game wearing a Paper Bag on my head.

[HedleyLamarr]

That's gonna be one big bag!

[NJTank]

Ill figure Ill use on from Shop Rite they are big, should fit my size 8 head.