The End of the NHL lockout

[jkrdevil]

According to Larry Brooks the lockout is near the end.

OWNERS, PLAYERS INCHING CLOSER

By LARRY BROOKS

OUR long national nightmare appears to be ending. Yes, it's true: the TV reality show, "The Contender" will no longer be on the air. And in other news, the NHL lockout is drawing to a conclusion.

According to reliable sources on both sides of the table, only an unforeseen intervention by extremist elements of either party can now prevent an agreement between the league and the PA by the end of June. Slap Shots has learned full-scale negotiating will resume Thursday following a small-group financial review on Wednesday.

It is as yet undetermined whether an agreement will be based on the league-preferred flat percentage-of-the-gross or on the floating-cap-range structure proposed by the union on April 4, nor on how great a gap will be permitted in payrolls between the highest- and lowest-spending clubs. It appears as though that the PA will attempt to calculate which system is likely to include the most upside, once the parties reach an agreement on a uniform definition and reporting of league revenues, and then negotiate on that basis.

In either case, it is extremely unlikely that the upper limit will be as high as the strings-attached $42.5M offered by the league just prior to cancellation of 2004-05, though that offer neither allowed for annual hikes based on revenue increases nor mandated a club payroll floor. Expect an initial upper limit of between $36-38M, with a floor of approximately $24-28M per team under either scenario.

There has, as yet, been no accord on definition of revenues, specifically on the critical and ambiguous definition of suite and concessions revenue, but progress toward reaching a common standard has been made over the last two weeks of small-group sessions.

Slap Shots has been told that the new CBA will in fact include the 24 percent salary rollback first offered by the union on Dec. 9. According to a source on one side of the table, agreement on the issue is both "expressed and implied." A source on the other side confirmed the assertion. The rollback will apply to the 288 contracts currently in force as well as to the 259 contracts due qualifying offers this summer.

Both sides have confirmed that qualifying offers and salary arbitration will be based on the union's Dec. 9 proposal rather than on any of the subsequent more restrictive league offers. QO's therefore will be 100 percent for players earning over $1M, and either 105 percent of 110 precent for those below that standard, as opposed to league offers that had featured qualifiers at either 75 percent or 85 percent for those earning more than $1M.

Though we're told there may be "tweaking" necessary to "harmonize" arbitration with a hard-cap system, salary arb will be based on the more the complex and player-protective union proposal than on subsequent league offers that would have permitted clubs to unilaterally defer arbitration or given teams the ability to take players to arbitration on an annual basis.

There has not yet been an agreement on which player costs will be included within the cap. Nor has there been agreement on a revenue-sharing formula or the disposition of 2004-05 contracts.

Factoring in the rollback, the Rangers have six players under contract for $21.7M, with the quartet of Jaromir Jagr, Bobby Holik, Darius Kasparaitis and Michael Nylander accounting for a $20.8M commitment.

The Islanders have only four players under contract, owing $15.6M to Alexei Yashin, Michael Peca, Janne Niinimaa and Jason Blake, with Rick DiPietro owed a qualifier and both Adrian Aucoin and Roman Hamrlik unrestricted free agents.

The Devils have 10 players under contract for $15.4M ? six core players including Martin Brodeur, John Madden, Sergei Brylin and Richard Matvichuk accounting for $13M ? but owe $6.3M in qualifiers to Patrik Elias and Scott Gomez, and with Scott Niedermayer, Scott Stevens and Brian Rafalski as unrestricted free agents.

With unrestricted free agency to be established at 30 for at least this year ? and expected to be lowered over the term of the agreement to 29 or 28 ? the class available this summer will feature:

Goaltenders: Nikolai Khabibulin, Chris Osgood, Sean Burke, Mike Dunham.

Defensemen: Niedermayer, Stevens, Brian Leetch, Sergei Zubov, Rafalski, Aucoin, Matt Schneider, Alexei Zhitnik, Dan McGillis, Chris Chelios, Mike Rathje, Sandis Ozolinsh.

Centers: Peter Forsberg, Mike Modano, Eric Lindros, Pavol Demitra, Alexei Zhamnov, Jason Allison.

Wingers: Martin St. Louis, Markus Naslund, Zigmund Palffy, Alex Kovalev, Glen Murray, Paul Kariya, Gary Roberts.

In addition, cap considerations make it likely that a number of intriguing players ?including Saku Koivu, Derek Morris, Brendan Morrison, Jeff O'Neill, Jason Arnott, Mark Parrish, Tom Poti, Jeff Friesen and Kenny Jonsson ? will not be qualified and thus will be on the market.

Meanwhile, there's talk that with an agreement in place, the NHL will hold its Sidney Crosby Coming Out Party (a.k.a. the 2005 Entry Draft) in New York on June 26.

Uh, fellas, bad idea: that's the weekend of the second Subway Series.

http://www.nypost.com/sports/24571.htm

[DEAD!]

I will not believe it until I see a news conference.

[redsfan39]

about friggin time if you ask me

[IronChefShark]

oh man, this better be it

we've gotten our hopes up before only to see things go the way of bevacqua....but at least its some good news.

[twi]

When it happens I'll trust it. Not a second before. But I hope this is it.

[Plaid Paint]

Did you guys actually read the article.

There are a lot more items/matters that seem to be far from finalized and worked out then ones that are all tied up nice with a pretty bow.

Seeing as the NHL Draft was canceled I doubt this will amount to anything.

[WSU151]

Did you guys actually read the article.

There are a lot more items/matters that seem to be far from finalized and worked out then ones that are all tied up nice with a pretty bow.

Seeing as the NHL Draft was canceled I doubt this will amount to anything.

Did you read the article?

It says the entry draft could be at the end of June.

[randyc]

I will not believe it until I see a news conference.

i'm with you on this one quad

[NJTank]

It will fall apart they will get more enrtenched and the NHL will fold. Gary Bettman Vader liek will go to David Stern and bow before him I destroyed it as you said my master. and Stern Sideous will laugh and shoot lightning at Bettman killing him saying I got a new apprentence Darth Selig heres how to take down MLB and make the NBA the only sport ha ha ha.

[Puckguy14]

I'll believe it when I see it. For now, I'll prep for NHL Armageddon 2 in a couple of weeks.

[Bleujayone]

I think the article is wishful thinking at best. In light of the various interveiws shown of the past few months, I have yet to see anything that would indicate either side is willing to bite the bullet and resolve this matter. Even if they did resolve everything by tomorrow, the damage is already done.

When baseball went on strike in the in '90's, I didn't see anywhere near the amount of venom between the players and the owners as I see here, and it took them many years to get back to normal (some would argue that they're still trying to fully recover.) Hockey has a lot more to lose overall and far less to start with. Hockey is not the number one sport in the States, it's lost much of its television money and contracts, and fans are getting fed up with both sides, not to mention fans really are going to be far less willing to pony up the ticket prices for games to make up the difference.

What's more I have found many fans are getting their passion for hockey fulfilled through minor leagues, college teams, even their kids' pee-wee games. As it is I have found AHL games to be cheaper to attend and just as entertaining. In the end hockey is hockey, and the collective NHL best realize that this whole strike/lockout/pissing contest is little more than corporate suicide. I have yet to find anything that can be called a gain by prolonging it. Not having the Stanley Cup is like not having the World Series- it's the ultimate sin among sports fans and the results are the death of sports loyalty with casual fans, and the loss of innocence with younger fans, In both cases, they will be less likely to come back to the seats when the games resume.

We as fans do not owe anything to professional sports. WE are the customers, it is their job to convince us to part with the amount of money they ask for in return for the product they provide. If they cannot provide us with what we desire, we need to give our support to someone or something else. It is their burden- not ours. The privlige is not for us to watch them play, because we have to pay. If the NHL died tomorrow we could move on. I really do not like the idea that when this lockout is over, many devoted fans will come rushing back like junkies looking for their fix, and all is forgiven. If this were any other industry, we'd have already moved on and found something else. Why someone hasn't jumped on the chance and put together a alternative pro league I'll never know. I grew up supporting the Bruins, but I have to be honest, if I don't see them back on the ice sometime VERY soon, I could see myself switching my attention to someone who is willing to play.

[ROCHitman]

It will fall apart they will get more enrtenched and the NHL will fold. Gary Bettman Vader liek will go to David Stern and bow before him I destroyed it as you said my master. and Stern Sideous will laugh and shoot lightning at Bettman killing him saying I got a new apprentence Darth Selig heres how to take down MLB and make the NBA the only sport ha ha ha.

Oh stop it Tank!

You've really got it in for Bettman, eh?

I bet that when we get back to playing you'll forgive and forget.

[wheateater]

It will fall apart they will get more enrtenched and the NHL will fold. Gary Bettman Vader liek will go to David Stern and bow before him I destroyed it as you said my master. and Stern Sideous will laugh and shoot lightning at Bettman killing him saying I got a new apprentence Darth Selig heres how to take down MLB and make the NBA the only sport ha ha ha.

You know, the sad thing is this is probably what they're trying to do. Too bad (for Stern) that the NBA's just gonna go through the same thing when their CBA runs out. And Selig better not laugh -- I guarantee that MLB will shut down when the current CBA there runs out....after the 2006 World Series, I believe.

Ah yes, the glories of business taking over sports...

BTW...Tank, lay off the Star Wars stuff, man. Out of hand it is getting, hmmm...

[Dilbert]

Please! I dont have any hockey next season. I dont want to go to College games cuz there not as fun. And ECHL games arent as good as the AHL. But seeing NHL would be great. I would go up to Columbus in a heartbeat.

[NJTank]

I still hate Selig after 1994 so no I wont I want Bettman fired. Thats when Ill be happy.3

It seems awful fishy to me that Bettman a NBA man takes over hockey and destroys the sport, changes the rules over expands and does nothing to get it better TV exposure. Hes not a hockey guy hes never been.

[IceCap]

bettman is an ass, plain and simple. give his job to someone who actually cares about the game.

[HatCityEnforcer]

Sorry, I won't believe the NHL & the union have an agreement until I see Bettman and Goodenow up at the podium at the press conference...

Besides, it's Larry Brooks, folks...as much as he might be the best hockey writer in the New York area (then again, seeing the other characters in the papers around here, it's not exactly that much of an award), I tend to take A LOT of what he says with a grain of salt...