NFL Expansion Cities?

[Chicageaux]

Except it's football and a big enough market that if you move an existing team like the Jaguars to LA, people are going to still pack the stadium for the first couple years. After that, the team should be well enough off that people aren't just going for the novelty of it. The Clippers are a bad exampe because they have to share a fan base with the Lakers.

[MSOFMYKIN]

You can bet that the only expansion will be south of the imaginary San Francisco to Washington DC boundary (the Sun Belt). Population growth.

Areas like Austin, Orange County, San Antonio are the best/only possibilities...in America.

Mexico, Canada, UK, Germany, and Japan may look like better options for the league though.

Look to airport connectivity for future growth probability:

London Jaguars (Jag-yew-ers)

Frankfurt Lions

Mexico City Buccaneers

Tokyo Bills

Beijing Chargers

Would be sweet, BUT WHICH TEAMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO RELOCATE?

[Gothamite]

The area is bigger than Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Nashville, Jacksonville. New Orleans, Buffalo, and Green Bay. I don't think market size is a problem.

Tell me which of those cities would get an expansion team today.

[Evil G]

The area is bigger than Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Nashville, Jacksonville. New Orleans, Buffalo, and Green Bay. I don't think market size is a problem.

Tell me which of those cities would get an expansion team today.

Nashville and Indianapolis, maybe Jacksonville.

[Gothamite]

The area is bigger than Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Nashville, Jacksonville. New Orleans, Buffalo, and Green Bay. I don't think market size is a problem.

Tell me which of those cities would get an expansion team today.

Nashville and Indianapolis, maybe Jacksonville.

Nashville, maybe. Jacksonville was started to be talked of as a mistake almost immediately after it was done.

[IceCap]

Jacksonville was also the NFL's last choice. They only got a team because the St. Louis and Baltimore bids fell through.

[Saintsfan]

Jacksonville was also the NFL's last choice. They only got a team because the St. Louis and Baltimore bids fell through.

Which further makes the point that a relocation is easier to bring about for a city. And probably easier to build a fan base, even for a less successful franchise. (Though the Rams have had problems in St Louis.) And you not creating a team from zero either.

You don't sense the Goodell is that keen on expansion right now either. I sense the possibility of relocation if the right package could be organised (personally I think Raiders back to LA is the most likely scenario), but I don't sense the NFL is as sold on the importance of LA as it was 5 or 10 years ago?

[BBTV]

Ever notice that these threads seem to be started by 10 year olds and frequented by kids who say a city should have a team without giving any credible reasons why? It's generally "hey, [insert city] has an NBA or NHL team, but no NFL team - why not????" Hell, I'm surprised Portland hasn't been brought up yet.

[Gothamite]

First page.

Portland Breakers

[BBTV]

My bad. Well, at least he did his research. A successful MLS team certainly means that the NFL will work.

[Gothamite]

Yeah, that wasn't for you...

[MSOFMYKIN]

Which NFL teams are most susceptible to relocation?

What is more likely, San Antonio or London?

[Gothamite]

You might as well ask Venus or Mars.

I'd say London is more likely, but neither is very likely.

[Evil G]

Which NFL teams are most susceptible to relocation?

What is more likely, San Antonio or London?

San Antonio would be more supportive, but London is likelier because they think they can work there.

[dfwabel]

Which NFL teams are most susceptible to relocation?

What is more likely, San Antonio or London?

San Antonio would be more supportive, but London is likelier because they think they can work there.

And what economic data do you have to back that up?

It seems you just look at the population of a US city and say, "They have a stadium."

San Antonio's largest employer is the US Military with their three bases.

[nuordr]

Based on population of the highest cities in the U.S. then list would be:

1. L.A.

2. San Antonio

3. Las Vegas

4. Columbus, OH

5. Orlando

6. Omaha

7. Sacramento

8. Portland

9. Norfolk, VA

10. Salt Lake City

[STL FANATIC]

More from the first page of this thread, but I believe expansion is ABSOLUTELY on the table.

It might be LA's mostly likely shot at getting a team (or two). Although the Raiders are seeming particularly unlikely to work something out in Oakland, so they may make it their first.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nfl/story/_/id/7535394/nfl-commissioner-roger-goodell-says-34-teams-likely-nfl-adds-franchise-los-angeles

Yes, that's from well over a year ago, but I can't even begin to imagine the idea being completely dead. There is too much money to be made in expansion not to consider it.

Also, when Jerry Jones said a couple of seeks ago that he thought the NFL was "closer than ever" to returning to LA, people pretty much took it one of two ways.

(1) Jerry Jones is crazy and likes attention, don't put much stock in it.

(2) Jerry Jones knows something, and some team must be really exploring LA.

But I think, if the first option isn't correct, the key was in this quote (and maybe someone in the other thread already pointed this out):

Closer than ever -- ever being since they left, which has been a long time, much to my surprise and anticipation," Jones said Saturday when asked if the NFL was close to returning to Los Angeles. "There are some viable ways for a team or teams to be in Los Angeles. We've got some very talented and very qualified people that want to be a part of it that are not a part of the league right now. We, obviously, have people within the league that want this very much.

Emphasis my own.

Sure he could be talking about the people in LA who want to buy a portion of the team. But I think that strongly leaves open the possibility that there are owners interested in an expansion franchise.

Goodell has walked back his statements on expansion over the past 18 months, but I know I've read at least a couple of journalists who have suggested in less formal discussions that Goodell has promoted the idea of expanding.

Basically, I think it's very much a possibility.

And I think either LA gets two teams, or if LA is already getting one via a move, then a second city may be in play. Do they take the leap to London? I'm super skeptical about that. But I'm not sure who gets the team if not. My first instinct is San Antonio, but as has been discussed, I don't know if that really adds up or not.

[McCall]

The only way I'd see the NFL expanding is a 4-team to 36 total, 2 teams one season and 2 more another season a la the NHL at the turn of the century. 36 could evenly be divided by return to 6 divisions only with 6 teams each instead of the previous 5. And if any league could get to 36, it'd probably be the NFL.

That being said, I'm not sure they're even capable of that kind of expansion at this point in time. Maybe down the road a little.

[MSOFMYKIN]

I think possibility of growth is a greater factor than static population numbers.

The best arbiter of growth is airplane connectivity. What matters most is whether each city's airport has a hub. Cases in point: Atlanta and Delta (major growth projections) and Pittsburgh losing USAir (the only major sports city that will see population loss by 2030).

The cool thing here is that Internet connectivity (geographic connections) at any moment can predict airport connectivity in 5-10 years, thus can predict growth in 5-10 years.

You want your airport's runway to be in the middle of the city.

These Aeropolises (like the Donkeyopolises and Autopolises) will begin to look more like other Aeropolises than towns and cities 50 miles from it (London looks more like Shanghai than Stratford-upon-Avon, for example).

Let me explain Donkeytropolis before I go. Basically, the cities along travel routes that see a lot of travelers (where people park their donkeys, cars, airplanes) begin to look like other donkey-posts than cities closeby.

Just Google "Aeropolis." Intelligence Squared has a good podcast lecture on the topic.

[Evil G]

Which NFL teams are most susceptible to relocation?

What is more likely, San Antonio or London?

San Antonio would be more supportive,

And what economic data do you have to back that up?

It seems you just look at the population of a US city and say, "They have a stadium."

If that was true, I'd say London would be more supportive. I already said that stadium is an issue in a previous post.

London would not support a team at all, because NFL Europe failed miserably. It's like Toronto, almost. Plus a team like Kansas City would have to fly for nearly 14 hours before getting there. Yikes.