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NFL Expansion Cities?


Beluga4

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I think possibility of growth is a greater factor than static population numbers.

The best arbiter of growth is airplane connectivity. What matters most is whether each city's airport has a hub. Cases in point: Atlanta and Delta (major growth projections) and Pittsburgh losing USAir (the only major sports city that will see population loss by 2030).

The cool thing here is that Internet connectivity (geographic connections) at any moment can predict airport connectivity in 5-10 years, thus can predict growth in 5-10 years.

You want your airport's runway to be in the middle of the city.

These Aeropolises (like the Donkeyopolises and Autopolises) will begin to look more like other Aeropolises than towns and cities 50 miles from it (London looks more like Shanghai than Stratford-upon-Avon, for example).

Let me explain Donkeytropolis before I go. Basically, the cities along travel routes that see a lot of travelers (where people park their donkeys, cars, airplanes) begin to look like other donkey-posts than cities closeby.

Just Google "Aeropolis." Intelligence Squared has a good podcast lecture on the topic.

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Based on population of the highest cities in the U.S. then list would be:

1. L.A.

2. San Antonio

3. Las Vegas

4. Columbus, OH

5. Orlando

6. Omaha

7. Sacramento

8. Portland

9. Norfolk, VA

10. Salt Lake City

I would go by that city's television market size as opposed to city or even metro population...after all, television dollars drives pro sports, especially the NFL. Taking your list by account, the order (going by the latest Nielsen DMA list) would be Los Angeles, Orlando, Sacramento, Portland, Columbus, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, Las Vegas, Norfolk, and Omaha (a smaller TV market than Green Bay). Out of all of these cities besides L.A., Vegas could probably be the only viable expansion/relocation target, and maybe Orlando (even with the Bucs and Jags nearby).

All of these other markets have have fanbases of regional franchises firmly entrenched--like Sacto with the Bay Area teams, Omaha with the Chiefs, Norfolk with the Skins (and maybe the Ravens and Panthers to a lesser extent; Norfolk's TV market covers parts of northeastern North Carolina), Portland with the Seahawks, SLC with the Broncos, and so on. You better believe that these teams would raise a fuss if another team encroaches on their territory.

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I still don't know what a Donkeytropolis is. I'm guessing they're not getting an NFL team, though. That'd just be asinine.

I think that it would be a great market to expand to, Donkeytropolis, Ionoisconsin.

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While the Aeropolis concept is something I enjoy, it has no place in this thread.

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I hope L.A. gets an NFL team back some day soon, that they will support and love. But that is the key - they must not abandon it when it inevitably stinks.

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Which NFL teams are most susceptible to relocation?

What is more likely, San Antonio or London?

San Antonio would be more supportive,

And what economic data do you have to back that up?

It seems you just look at the population of a US city and say, "They have a stadium."

If that was true, I'd say London would be more supportive. I already said that stadium is an issue in a previous post.

London would not support a team at all, because NFL Europe failed miserably. It's like Toronto, almost. Plus a team like Kansas City would have to fly for nearly 14 hours before getting there. Yikes.

The NFL Europe thing is not part of the issue. In fact the Monarchs were no badly supported, given the nature of the league, and the nature of the UK's NFL fanbase (UK fans quickly figured this was an inferior product).

That being said, the practical issues are far more of a reason to be sceptical about a London NFL franchise. Some of them could be figured out, but large ones would always remain.

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Eventually London will get a team.

OK, let's say London DOES get a team. Logically, other European cities would have to get teams too...could we see the revival of NFL Europe, only this time as part of the NFL?

(FTR: I would LOVE it if a team was able to get the rights to the London Monarchs name and logo-those were SWEET!)

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Goodell wanting to put an NFL team in London is like a four-year-old wanting to put a McDonald's on the moon, except one is a petulant brat whom we pretend to treat like a grown-up and the other is a four-year-old.

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Goodell needs to slow down, really a team that has to travel overseas to play against most of their divisional rivals won't work out.

That team wouldn't last 2 years if they had an average record. I think if London wants a team, bring back the NFL Europe

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I would really like to know where the energy is coming from on that. He doesn't do anything in a vacuum, he works for the owners. Sure, the Commissioner drives the bus, but not against the wishes of the owners.

So what's the game plan? Really put a franchise there? Does anybody think that's really feasible? Or is that stringing along just to promote the Jaguars games and whatever merchandising opportunities they see in the UK?

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I'd like to see, if the NFL ever got hell bent on expanding the regular season, have a 17th neutral site for everyone. Some of these could be played internationally and some in secondary markets, like the CFL Touchdown Atlantic series.

Examples:

Titans, Rams, Cowboys, or Saints in Memphis (Rams actually are broadcasting preseason games in Memphis this year, Titans are the state's team, lots of Saints fans in the area, but Cowboys probably the most popular.)

Florida teams could play a game in Orlando

California teams could play in LA if LA doesn't get a team.

Europe: any of the old NFL Europe cities

Canada: having a few NFL games a year could reach the Canadian market without infringing too much on the CFL

Texans/Cowboys, San Antonio

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I still believe this London thing is simply sowing the seeds to get what they really want in L.A., which they have not received apparently.

They are running out of teams with stadium issues, so little by little the leverage goes away.

Once the musical chairs music ends and the Raiders are all that's left without a stadium (for example) and the Chavez Ravine football complex is finally under way, Goodell releases a statement saying the transportation hurdles were too great for a London team, which in reality means "that darn Star Trek transporter beam didn't get finished in time."

London is being used, IMO. The novelty of these one-offs would start to wear off if the fanbase didn't believe a team was possible.

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The neutral site idea simply isn't feasible unless NFL caliber stadiums start popping up all over the country.

How about this - build a state of the art stadium in Las Vegas. Have one game there each week, and put it in the Super Bowl rotation. Each team would play there, and there would be a 17th game.

Think fans would love the idea of an annual trip to Las Vegas to see their team. Everyone benefits from this.

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Logistically a team in London will never fly. When you expand the time zone footprint of the league end to end from 4 to 9 and you count in things like jet lag, road trips, etc. it's too much pressure and disadvantage to put on visiting teams, let alone the home team that has to travel as far away as Seattle.

If you want to go international, I'd rather see Toronto, Vancouver, or even somewhere in Mexico (if possible) before going overseas.

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